WJC: 2022 IIHF WM U20 D1A in Hörsholm, Denmark ( december 12 - 18)

[SoundAndFury]

That doesn't make any sense on the surface. Any explanation about it, possible injuries etc.?

 

[A Bundy]

That doesn't make any sense on the surface. Any explanation about it, possible injuries etc.?

Spaberg Olsen apparantly skipped the first U20 camp this fall to train with his club, consequently wasn't invited to the Lillehammer tournament and now maybe the WC? Heresay though, so not sure if this is the right version. Leo Halmrast was on the roster for the Lillehammer tourney but never played any games. I didn't notice him at least. (Although Eliteprospect have him listed as playing which is a bit confusing.) Looks like he got injured or coronoa or something, because he didn't play the next games for Modo U20 either. They announced the roster when he was not playing games, so maybe he had a swifter recovery than anticipated. Could maybe be a late addition, but don't know how many players they can list. On Spaberg's choice, Granath, Oby Olsen and Johnsen where all playing steady SHL minutes before the break but mostly if not only U20 now, so maybe it is a difficult choice that shouldn't be judged to hard. But again, I only know bits and pieces of the reasoning. One of the replacements was a defender, so that might be part of it. A 15 year old U20 regular from Norway is a bit odd though.

 

[SoundAndFury]

I looked through the Kazakh roster and it actually doesn't seem too bad, definitely can play against Denmark and such. Anyone with more insight into it? @ozo maybe?

 

[A Bundy]

That doesn't make any sense on the surface. Any explanation about it, possible injuries etc.?

Update from the new head coach and Leo Halmrast and Calle Spaberg Olsen were left out as the management wanted different types of [role] players to complete the team. Fair enough. They certainly have a solid top six, relatively speaking, so makes some sense.

 

[ozo]

I looked through the Kazakh roster and it actually doesn't seem too bad, definitely can play against Denmark and such. Anyone with more insight into it? @ozo maybe?

Nope, sorry, I have stopped following them completely. Kids stats in their senior league does look decent enough, so they might be a dark horse for second place finish.

Belarus trims their roster a bit, bunch of '03 are sent back to their teams. Happy to see Mikhalyov cut, thought his last name is too good to not find him a place on roster. Sad but not surprising that Vancouver doesn't want Klimovich to travel for 1A tournament, so I hope we see him next year in elite WJC.

 

[A Bundy]

Denmark vs Norway playing their last exhibition game before the tourney:
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Danmarks Ishockey Union | Official Game Sheet
Something like 41 vs 45 penalty minutes, so a bit tense in the end. Pretty loopsided otherwise by the looks of it. Norway with 5 PP1 goals vs two EQ. Not used to that.

 

[ozo]

Belarus is taking things seriously, they have geoblocked their today's exhibition game for me in Latvia. There goes my plan of passing scouting notes to our coaches

 

[A Bundy]

Kazakhstan and Latvia has played some friendlies before the tourney:
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Dec 8 Latvia – MOGO/LSPA 5-4 OT
Dec 8 MHC Odense – Kazakhstan 2-4
Dec 7 MHC Esbjerg – Kazakhstan 1-7
If Latvia plated the men's team MOGO its a descent result, allthough their roster dosen't look overwhealming. Don't know the Latvian league. The Esbjerg game must have been the U20 team as the senior team had a game against Aalborg the same date.

 

[A Bundy]

Belarus is taking things seriously, they have geoblocked their today's exhibition game for me in Latvia. There goes my plan of passing scouting notes to our coaches

Молодежная сборная Беларуси обыграла «Динамо-Молодечно», забросив семь шайб. У Кузнецова очковый хет-трик They played another one. Not sure if it is Google translate or that actual game that was a bit odd. Spectacles and spectacular might be the same word in Russian?

 

[ozo]

Молодежная сборная Беларуси обыграла «Динамо-Молодечно», забросив семь шайб. У Кузнецова очковый хет-трик They played another one. Not sure if it is Google translate or that actual game that was a bit odd. Spectacles and spectacular might be the same word in Russian?

Result is meaningless, opposition mostly consisted of their own players with sprinkled in extras. Some players even switched sides during the game and also played out artificial created PP/PK situations. I do hope they name their final roster today.

 

[ozo]

If my math is right, Belarus is leaving 10 CHLers + Klimovich from AHL off their roster. Admittedly a lot of them are younger, but the fact that most them are cut by choice, makes this impressive for nation like Belarus.

 

[A Bundy]

If my math is right, Belarus is leaving 10 CHLers + Klimovich from AHL off their roster. Admittedly a lot of them are younger, but the fact that most them are cut by choice, makes this impressive for nation like Belarus.

Could you post the roster?

 

[ozo]

Could you post the roster?

Here you go.

 

[A Bundy]

That is certainly a strong generation. Goaltending looks intimidating. How does the MHL rank towards U20 Nationell btw? It has many more teams, but adjusted by the recruitment pool vs Sweden U20 becoming Allsvenskan after NY it migh be of similiar strenght? I'd say this tourney comes down to Belarus and Norway as an outsider with corona as a possible disrupter (6 teams, 140 players flying in from probably 80 different clubs and then playing on average 3 exibition games. Just really hope this will work out.)

 

[SoundAndFury]

That is certainly a strong generation. Goaltending looks intimidating. How does the MHL rank towards U20 Nationell btw? It has many more teams, but adjusted by the recruitment pool vs Sweden U20 becoming Allsvenskan after NY it migh be of similiar strenght? I'd say this tourney comes down to Belarus and Norway as an outsider with corona as a possible disrupter (6 teams, 140 players flying in from probably 80 different clubs and then playing on average 3 exibition games. Just really hope this will work out.)

MHL is marginally stronger but it's pretty close. The MHL playoffs are definitely much stronger than Swedish juniors though.

Regarding the tournament standings, Belarus are clear favorites and then it's pretty close between Norway and Latvia. I think grouping Norway with Belarus rather than Latvia is a bit of wishful thinking.

Although upon checking the rosters one more time and considering Belarus is missing Klimovich and Rogach, I wonder if they aren't overrated. The team in 2019 definitely seemed better in almost every way other than Kolosov. Other than him and the top line this team is just guys much like on every other team. Frankly, I blame ozo.

 

[Eye of Ra]

MHL is marginally stronger but it's pretty close. The MHL playoffs are definitely much stronger than Swedish juniors though.

Regarding the tournament standings, Belarus are clear favorites and then it's pretty close between Norway and Latvia. I think grouping Norway with Belarus rather than Latvia is a bit of wishful thinking.

Although upon checking the rosters one more time and considering Belarus is missing Klimovich and Rogach, I wonder if they aren't overrated. The team in 2019 definitely seemed better in almost every way other than Kolosov. Other than him and the top line this team is just guys much like on every other team. Frankly, I blame ozo.

You do realise that Superelit have a playoffs aswell? How is MHL playoffs much stronger than Superelit playoffs?

 

[SoundAndFury]

You do realise that Superelit have a playoffs aswell? How is MHL playoffs much stronger than Superelit playoffs?

Due to VHL - KHL affiliation and some truly bloated roaster during the KHL regular season.

Most KHL farms aren't VHL powerhouses so guys who play in the VHL get sent to the MHL when the season is over. Which results in rosters like these: Loko Yaroslavl at eliteprospects.com . Loko is the strongest MHL team throughout the years but you may notice Ryazan, Loko's VHL farm, usually stinks.

At the same time, CSKA/SKA (applies to many teams, frankly) trim down their rosters during the playoffs and spillover goes to the MHL. When CSKA won the MHL trophy in 16/17 4 out of 5 of their top scorers (Kuzmenko, Koshelev, Kvartalnov, Karnaukhov) had 5 MHL regular-season games played between them combined.

SHL - Allsvenskan cooperation is much less of a thing. Furthermore, as far as I can tell, juniors who have made the first team often aren't sent down to play in the SuperElit playoffs at all even if they are eligible.

 

[A Bundy]

Regarding the tournament standings, Belarus are clear favorites and then it's pretty close between Norway and Latvia. I think grouping Norway with Belarus rather than Latvia is a bit of wishful thinking.

The Latvian roster looks pretty impressive, and agree that it is a bit of wishful thinking. Didn't know they had so many players in the US and Canada, and NL as well. They seem to have an overall more complete team especially on D, but to Norway has at least a lot and more of men's league experience from Norway, SHL and AHL. The core of the team are fairly well established senior players, and the Norwegian league is not bad. Like Allsvenskan less H71 and AIK I belive I read this guy called it, before AIK went sour. The management also looks really good this year. So Belarus slightly ahead of Norway and Latvia maybe. I still would put my money on Norway, if any betting company ran any odds for this tourney ...

 

[Eye of Ra]

The Latvian roster looks pretty impressive, and agree that it is a bit of wishful thinking. Didn't know they had so many players in the US and Canada, and NL as well. They seem to have an overall more complete team especially on D, but to Norway has at least a lot and more of men's league experience from Norway, SHL and AHL. The core of the team are fairly well established senior players, and the Norwegian league is not bad. Like Allsvenskan less H71 and AIK I belive I read this guy called it, before AIK went sour. The management also looks really good this year. So Belarus slightly ahead of Norway and Latvia maybe. I still would put my money on Norway, if any betting company ran any odds for this tourney ...

Björklöven is better than AIK.

 

[ozo]

Although upon checking the rosters one more time and considering Belarus is missing Klimovich and Rogach, I wonder if they aren't overrated. The team in 2019 definitely seemed better in almost every way other than Kolosov. Other than him and the top line this team is just guys much like on every other team. Frankly, I blame ozo.

I am biased for sure, but I also think you are wrong. Hindsight is making previous 2019 team looking better than it actually was at the time. Players like Alistrov, two years younger Demchenko and Usov were average CHLers just like say Klavdiyev, Bourosh, Sapelnikov is right now with last two not even making the roster for upcoming tournament. I'm taking Kuzmin over Kolyachyonok as the best piece on D line, I guess Oksentyuk had better resume at the time than any of current F crop, but it is down to top kids being with KHL team instead of playing regularly in Belarus league. That said, so many more players this time around are actually full-time pros Belarus league already that makes me hopeful.

Belarus not winning (and not even being second) last time on home ice was a huge surprise and it should be a major letdown if they do not win again. Yes, not having Klimovich on PP will hurt, but I can't understate how big of a deal a competent (and this time actually great) goalie means in these short IIHF tournaments, if Kolosov started last time I'm sure Belarus would be an elite team right now, because Tolopilo was just terrible and the softies he let in sunk Belarus at crucial times.

 

[A Bundy]

Björklöven is better than AIK.

Yes, it was an early in the season off-the-bat comment: Bisarr avstängning i norsk hockey – kolliderade med domaren: ”Fattar ingenting” He mentioned Karlskoga as well, but that the Norwegian teams where somewhere in the middle, like average Allsvenskan level and better than Tingsryd and Almtuna. I'd say that speaks quite highly of players like Eskild Wold, Sander Vold Engebråthen and Eskild Bakke Olsen and even GK Stensrud. The latter is probably too small to get drafted, but I would be surprised if none of the players would get some attention as overagers in the draft if Norway manages an upset in the tourney. Expect Martin Johnsen to be drafted, allthough also on the small side. Don't know why Norway tend to produce so many small players from a relatively tall population, and same in this tourney - second only to Belarus. Zuccarello didn't even get drafted, and same with Philip Granath who could end up as the top scorer overall in this tourney. He is a fantastic player with the head right screwed on it seems. If I was a scout I would definately gamble a late pick on him. #NYR#Wild

 

[SoundAndFury]

I am biased for sure, but I also think you are wrong. Hindsight is making previous 2019 team looking better than it actually was at the time. Players like Alistrov, two years younger Demchenko and Usov were average CHLers just like say Klavdiyev, Bourosh, Sapelnikov is right now with last two not even making the roster for upcoming tournament. I'm taking Kuzmin over Kolyachyonok as the best piece on D line, I guess Oksentyuk had better resume at the time than any of current F crop, but it is down to top kids being with KHL team instead of playing regularly in Belarus league. That said, so many more players this time around are actually full-time pros Belarus league already that makes me hopeful.

For starters, I'm in full agreement Belarus not winning it the last time was a huge surprise. And goaltending did let them down. Really no debate there. However, if anything, opposing teams seem better this year. Latvia certainly seems better, and dare I say Norway looks stronger than Austria although with the benefit of hindsight maybe Austria was underrated the last time.

However, I disagree with the hindsight part on the Belarussian side:

On the defense, Kolyachyonok+Solovyov+Denisov (who was playing in the KHL at the time) formed a very formidable D core, if anything it is hindsight to underrate how good that defense was (seemed to be?) since Kolyachonok and Denisov both have trouble progressing. This year it's Kuzmin and.. With Rogach being injured there isn't even a strong #2, Levshunov, no matter how talented, is just a kid and other guys are, like I said, just guys. This team probably has more depth but hey, depth is a thing even Latvia has this year.

At forward, even at the time Protas was an obvious star bigger than anything Belarus has this year. Oksentyuk and Usov were also at roughly the same level as Kuznetsov and Pinchuk are now, even without the benefit of knowing Usov is going to turn into this top-6 center that we see now. So again, the only argument could be "this team has more depth" but even then, I wouldn't say the difference is significant without looking through the magnifying glass.

So really, compared to both the 2019 team and opponents this year, Kolosov (who hasn't played a real game in a month) is the only significant difference-maker. When Belarus was for the most part outplayed by Latvia in 2019 it was pretty shocking, this year I wouldn't even be surprised. To me, Belarus is 60-40 favorites, not more than that. And same with Norway, they seem very dangerous offensively it's just the question of who do they bring in the goal. If that guy can make a save it's definitely a 3-way competition.

 

[ozo]

All you write makes sense, and this is sort of what I tried to say- this team is deeper or more precisely better put together due to unprecedentedly huge pool of players Belarus can chose from right now. For example Rogach (I'm as big of a fan of his as you are) is not injured, he was simply cut from the camp citing his lack foot speed. D pairings are constructed from existing duos from their respective club teams - Sazanovich and Pozhigan from Soligorsk, Yuzlenko and Stasenko from Gomel, Levshunov and Karpovich from U18's + star player Kuzmin. Both Kuzmin and Levshunov add a lot of offensive threat to Belarus game from blue line, imo even more so than the 2019 trio you listed, it should go a long way towards overwhelming the opposition when they have the puck.

All that said, I really don't know much about the opposition besides guesstimating their strength from EP profiles, so another disappointment is not unimaginable, but I think only team that Belarus should really fear is Latvia, I still remember their previous meeting and Tolopilo not being a savior aside, Latvia really was a worthy winner, their modern energetic hockey really made Belarus look disjointed and clueless.

Like I know I'm guilty of hyping (and probably overhyping) Belarus players, but I truly hype players individually, not really the collection of them as some sort of unbeatable machine that will wipe the floor with opponents in the next 7 days, but in two years time we will look back at the players in this tournament and again we will realize that Belarus just had to win this (whether it will happen or not).

 

[A Bundy]

And same with Norway, they seem very dangerous offensively it's just the question of who do they bring in the goal. If that guy can make a save it's definitely a 3-way competition.

I think they are gonna go with Stensrud, based on the tourney in Lillehammer where he had two games and Plogås one. The goaltending coach is also from the same club (Storhamar). Hard to see which one is the best, but Stensrud has more top level experience.

 

[SoundAndFury]

I think they are gonna go with Stensrud, based on the tourney in Lillehammer where he had two games and Plogås one. The goaltending coach is also from the same club (Storhamar). Hard to see which one is the best, but Stensrud has more top level experience.

Yeah, the tricky part with goalies is that their stats don't tell a whole lot before the tournament like this. It's a different kind of environment, different kind of pressure. Tolopilo seemed like a very good option for Belarus the last time around, he had loads of experience and good stats, yet he turned out to be completely unable to perform. Same with Askarov in the last year's WJC.