Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Alaskanice]

I mean that’s just not true. Gaudreau was definitely projected to be a starter when drafted and nothing has really changed. Makaniemi posted excellent numbers in the A. Chrona good to great numbers in the NCAA. They aren’t going to be Vasi but genuinely there’s 5-6 goalies in the league that are better than 1A/1B goalies.

All we need is one of those guys yo emulate Binnington. He was the third string goalie then led the Blues to the biggest turnaround in their history and the Stanley Cup.

 

[Hodge]

I mean at a certain point I've read the same thing "our prospect pool is so much better than x years ago" and yet here we are....with no much to show for the improved prospect pool except a new "well our prospect pool is better than 3 years ago".

Don’t bother, there’s no use making this (obvious and correct) point. Maybe the entire 2020 draft class washing out after being widely “projected” by posters on this board to produce 5-6 NHLers will finally bring people to their senses. But I doubt it.

 

[Gecklund]

I mean at a certain point I've read the same thing "our prospect pool is so much better than x years ago" and yet here we are....with no much to show for the improved prospect pool except a new "well our prospect pool is better than 3 years ago".

I mean it takes time. It’s been like 5 years the team has started improving the prospect pool. They’ve produced guys like Knyzhov, Simek, Middleton, Ferraro, Gregor. Additionally guys like Dahlen, Merkley, Reedy, Chmelevski, Chekhovich, Gambrell, Radil, Korenar, Brodzinski, Viel, Suomela, Barabanov, True, Bergmann, Yurtaykin, Blichfield, Meloche, Carrick, Leonard have all gotten NHL chances since 18-19 (when the turnaround happened) and/or have come to the org as a direct result of the better scouting and such. Don’t get me wrong that list isn’t great outside of a few guys but again still really early.

 

[TheBeard]

Don’t bother, there’s no use making this (obvious and correct) point. Maybe the entire 2020 draft class washing out after being widely “projected” by posters on this board to produce 5-6 NHLers will finally bring people to their senses. But I doubt it.

All them washed-up 20 year olds.

 

[Hodge]

All them washed-up 20 year olds.

All them D+3 prospects who can’t even get ice time let alone produce in the AHL.

 

[SjMilhouse]

I mean it takes time. It’s been like 5 years the team has started improving the prospect pool. They’ve produced guys like Knyzhov, Simek, Middleton, Ferraro, Gregor. Additionally guys like Dahlen, Merkley, Reedy, Chmelevski, Chekhovich, Gambrell, Radil, Korenar, Brodzinski, Viel, Suomela, Barabanov, True, Bergmann, Yurtaykin, Blichfield, Meloche, Carrick, Leonard have all gotten NHL chances since 18-19 (when the turnaround happened) and/or have come to the org as a direct result of the better scouting and such. Don’t get me wrong that list isn’t great outside of a few guys but again still really early.

That list is dog shit which is the entire point I'm making. The only reason I know all those names is because of how often they were mentioned in threads just like this over the last 10 years. A lot of those names were mentioned as part of our "improved prospect pool".

Don't get me wrong, I like the direction the team took on who they were drafting in terms of play style/size/skills because at least those guys are more boom/bust than the Nick Petrekis of the world, but the end result has been the same. I'm too lazy to look it up but how many of the people on that list have played more than...30 games in the NHL?

Maybe Merkley puts it all together
Maybe Gregor finds a way to actually score goals
Maybe Knyzhov tuns into something
Barabanov was a trade so not sure you can count him
Simek looked good but has been pretty shit since that contract
Middleton is ok
Ferraro looked good to start but appears to be a #4 at best now
Dahlen isnt in the NHL (also a trade)
Reedy has done nothing
The Ch Twins were HIGHLY talked about here, both have yet to do anything (They were part of our "We have a solid prospect pool finally" discussions along with the likes of McGrew,/Reedy...people were not that stoked on Norris and yet he's the best of the recent draft picks but we traded him away)
Blichfield is playing overseas

The list goes on. Just looking at the draft from 2012 on, the list of players who were talked about a ton here as part of our rotating door of rejuvenated prospect pools include: Brodzinski, Boudreau, Chartier, Sadowy, Rod, Bergman, Goldobin, Balcers, Helewka, Roy, Blichfield, Grego, Gambrell, Ch Twins, Reedy, Leonard, Weatherby, Karlsson

Again the only reason I recognize any of those names because I don't do my own prospect research outside of lurking here and FtF before FtF became a shithole

Edit: To Hodges point, most of that list is in their D+3 or D+4 season (or more)...if you had something more than a 4th liner they'd be knocking on the door or in the league by now besides a few games here and there at the end of a season

Double Edit because I did some research. Going back to 2010 the funny part is the most impactful players outside of the Meier and Hertls of the world were all traded. Coyle, Kuraly, DeMelo, Tierny, Norris,

I also forgot about Joakim Ryan! Who is now overseas hahaha O'Regan who just needed to put it all together is a career AHLer.

 

[timorous me]

That list is dog shit which is the entire point I'm making. The only reason I know all those names is because of how often they were mentioned in threads just like this over the last 10 years. A lot of those names were mentioned as part of our "improved prospect pool".

Don't get me wrong, I like the direction the team took on who they were drafting in terms of play style/size/skills because at least those guys are more boom/bust than the Nick Petrekis of the world, but the end result has been the same. I'm too lazy to look it up but how many of the people on that list have played more than...30 games in the NHL?

Maybe Merkley puts it all together
Maybe Gregor finds a way to actually score goals
Maybe Knyzhov tuns into something
Barabanov was a trade so not sure you can count him
Simek looked good but has been pretty shit since that contract
Middleton is ok
Ferraro looked good to start but appears to be a #4 at best now
Dahlen isnt in the NHL (also a trade)
Reedy has done nothing
The Ch Twins were HIGHLY talked about here, both have yet to do anything (They were part of our "We have a solid prospect pool finally" discussions along with the likes of McGrew,/Reedy...people were not that stoked on (Norris and yet he's the best of the recent draft picks but we traded him away)
Blichfield is playing overseas

The list goes on. Just looking at the draft from 2012 on, the list of players who were talked about a ton here as part of our rotating door of rejuvenated prospect pools include: Brodzinski, Boudreau, Chartier, Sadowy, Rod, Bergman, Goldobin, Balcers, Helewka, Roy, Blichfield, Grego, Gambrell, Ch Twins, Reedy, Leonard, Weatherby, Karlsson

Again the only reason I recognize any of those names because I don't do my own prospect research is from lurking here and FtF before FtF became a shithole

Edit: To Hodges point, most of that list is in their D+3 or D+4 season (or more)...if you had something more than a 4th liner they'd be knocking on the door or in the league by now besides a few games here and there at the end of a season

Double Edit because I did some research. Going back to 2010 the funny part is the most impactful players outside of the Meier and Hertls of the world were all traded. Coyle, Kuraly, DeMelo, Tierny, Norris,

I also forgot about Joakim Ryan! Who is now overseas hahaha O'Regan who just needed to put it all together is a career AHLer.

The attitude here feels really similar to the one that Hodge likes to bring that infuriates so many people; you're painting everyone with the same brush and acting like there's some blind groupthink here of people who have been completely delusional about the potential of players.

I mean, really, how many people around these parts have thought that those players you mentioned were going to turn into world-beaters and take the franchise to another level?

And if people did get enthusiastic at times about players--like, say, Dahlen when he started out hot, or a prospect when they had a good stretch of putting up points--is that really anything that every other fanbase wouldn't do? You can get excited about a prospect and offer up hope for their success while also being realistic and knowing it likely may not happen.

If a few people here and there go overboard, who really cares? Let them dream. I certainly haven't observed too much delusion, not in the grand scale of the matter, in the past couple years on here. The prospect pool being better a couple years ago (but still not good) is an indictment of both the Sharks' success and some front office approaches; the fact that it's better now (but still not great) feels like a pretty obvious fact and just because that previous "better (than bad)" group hasn't panned out amazingly well doesn't exactly invalidate any positive feelings toward this current group.

 

[SjMilhouse]

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

Good article that highlights just how few prospects picked outside of the first round actually end up having an established NHL career (100+ games). You are doing pretty damn well if 1-2 players per draft end up playing more than 100 games. To be fair those figures are from older drafts but 55-65 players in each draft played more than 100 games in the NHL. That's about 28% of an entire draft. So if you have 7 rounds, you should get 1-2 players who end up playing more than 100 games on average.

 

[SjMilhouse]

The attitude here feels really similar to the one that Hodge likes to bring that infuriates so many people; you're painting everyone with the same brush and acting like there's some blind groupthink here of people who have been completely delusional about the potential of players.

I mean, really, how many people around these parts have thought that those players you mentioned were going to turn into world-beaters and take the franchise to another level?

And if people did get enthusiastic at times about players--like, say, Dahlen when he started out hot, or a prospect when they had a good stretch of putting up points--is that really anything that every other fanbase wouldn't do? You can get excited about a prospect and offer up hope for their success while also being realistic and knowing it likely may not happen.

If a few people here and there go overboard, who really cares? Let them dream. I certainly haven't observed too much delusion, not in the grand scale of the matter, in the past couple years on here. The prospect pool being better a couple years ago (but still not good) is an indictment of both the Sharks' success and some front office approaches; the fact that it's better now (but still not great) feels like a pretty obvious fact and just because that previous "better (than bad)" group hasn't panned out amazingly well doesn't exactly invalidate any positive feelings toward this current group.

In general I don't disagree, I'm painting with a generalized brush. My point is that after 10 years of "our prospect pool is so much better than it used to be" you'd hope that we'd actually have some results on the big squad which we haven't really seen.

Be as optimistic as you want, I just get annoyed when people crap all over Hodge for having a realistic perspective on the chances of our prospect pool developing into anything as impactful as a lot of posters seem to believe is realistic. When it doesn't pan out, as it hasn't over the last 10 years, the goalposts move to "well this prospect pool is even better" despite having the same results. The response is basically "you're wrong, you can't know because THESE prospects are so young etc". Cool, believe what you want but don't be assholes to the one poster who is coming from a POV of the reality that can be backed with statistical analysis of prior drafts and draft position when projecting our prospect pool

I'm also not saying anyone thought these guys would be world beaters, but prospects are often discussed as "well if they reach their max potential they could be a 1st/2nd liner!" despite the odds of them both reaching their potential and that potential being that high is incredibly small. It's a win to get a good 3rd/4th liner, especially based on our ADP over the last few years. Unfortunately those players don't really move the needle when the team lacks high end talent to actually drive the bus.

I guess my main point or issue is people gang up on anyone with a realistic position that isn't the hyper optimistic view point. You're allowed to be optimistic, but people are also allowed to be realistic...especially when the realistic view points have been correct far more than the optimistic

For what it's worth, I bought into the optimisim about prospects for a long time. Having followed this team really closely for the last 10-12 seasons, I've learned that there is no point in getting my hopes up about anyone people talk about because it rarely RARELY works out that way and I've shifted more toward having a realistic view of this team so I'm not constantly disappointed and instead can enjoy the rare wins more

 

[Gecklund]

That list is dog shit which is the entire point I'm making. The only reason I know all those names is because of how often they were mentioned in threads just like this over the last 10 years. A lot of those names were mentioned as part of our "improved prospect pool".

Don't get me wrong, I like the direction the team took on who they were drafting in terms of play style/size/skills because at least those guys are more boom/bust than the Nick Petrekis of the world, but the end result has been the same. I'm too lazy to look it up but how many of the people on that list have played more than...30 games in the NHL?

Maybe Merkley puts it all together
Maybe Gregor finds a way to actually score goals
Maybe Knyzhov tuns into something
Barabanov was a trade so not sure you can count him
Simek looked good but has been pretty shit since that contract
Middleton is ok
Ferraro looked good to start but appears to be a #4 at best now
Dahlen isnt in the NHL (also a trade)
Reedy has done nothing
The Ch Twins were HIGHLY talked about here, both have yet to do anything (They were part of our "We have a solid prospect pool finally" discussions along with the likes of McGrew,/Reedy...people were not that stoked on Norris and yet he's the best of the recent draft picks but we traded him away)
Blichfield is playing overseas

The list goes on. Just looking at the draft from 2012 on, the list of players who were talked about a ton here as part of our rotating door of rejuvenated prospect pools include: Brodzinski, Boudreau, Chartier, Sadowy, Rod, Bergman, Goldobin, Balcers, Helewka, Roy, Blichfield, Grego, Gambrell, Ch Twins, Reedy, Leonard, Weatherby, Karlsson

Again the only reason I recognize any of those names because I don't do my own prospect research outside of lurking here and FtF before FtF became a shithole

Edit: To Hodges point, most of that list is in their D+3 or D+4 season (or more)...if you had something more than a 4th liner they'd be knocking on the door or in the league by now besides a few games here and there at the end of a season

Double Edit because I did some research. Going back to 2010 the funny part is the most impactful players outside of the Meier and Hertls of the world were all traded. Coyle, Kuraly, DeMelo, Tierny, Norris,

I also forgot about Joakim Ryan! Who is now overseas hahaha O'Regan who just needed to put it all together is a career AHLer.

Those names really weren’t mentioned as part of the improved prospect pool apart from Merkley and the Ch-twins Even Ferraro wasn’t included in that.

Merkley is 22
Gregor is 24
Knyzhov was a top 4 D before getting hurt
Barabanov was a direct result of Suomela who was a direct result of increased scouting overseas.
Simek has been an NHLer no doubt.
Middleton is a top 4 D
Ferraro is a top 4 D
Dahlen another direct result of better scouting overseas but agreed but he did play in the NHL.
Reedy is 23 and showed promise last year in his first full year pro
Ch-twins you’re right although I did like Chmelevski last year and both were 6th/7th round picks so getting a single game from them is a success

This whole thing is revisionist history. None of these guys are the big thoughts from our new drafting process except Merkley.

You talk about the new drafting but then go back before that and use it against the new drafting/system which is dumb.

There’s literally 3 top 4 D, 1 bottom pair D, a complimentary winger, and 2 guys who I’d be surprised if they weren’t NHL regulars so don’t know why you are saying only one 4th liners.

Like your whole post was dumb as hell. That whole list includes ONE first rounder and 2 second rounders. Getting any NHL games out of not those two rounds is a huge success.

I understand what you’re saying and to an extent I agree with it but the thing is you’re using guys who are in their first season as a pro and still young to try to say that our system sucks. Then you’re taking guys who were pre-DW Jr (the guy who turned our drafting around) to prove your point.

 

[TheBeard]

I guess my main point or issue is people gang up on anyone with a realistic position that isn't the hyper optimistic view point. You're allowed to be optimistic, but people are also allowed to be realistic...especially when the realistic view points have been correct far more than the optimistic

There's a fine line between having rational points as Hodge does on occasion and consistently going out of his way to find narratives to disagree with anyone who has a different viewpoint. I'd have a lot more respect for him if he chose to be a more civil, level-headed poster as opposed to someone who lurks solely for the purpose of being cynical and argumentative. I've never once seem him post anything remotely close to something like "I can see your point" or "there's a possibility that's true" without it being snarking and condescending. You can defend him all you want like he's a victim, but the dude knows exactly what he's doing with each post. He's a big boy.

 

[hohosaregood]

There's a fine line between having rational points as Hodge does on occasion and consistently going out of his way to find narratives to disagree with anyone who has a different viewpoint. I'd have a lot more respect for him if he chose to be a more civil, level-headed poster as opposed to someone who lurks solely for the purpose of being cynical and argumentative. I've never once seem him post anything remotely close to something like "I can see your point" or "there's a possibility that's true" without it being snarking and condescending. You can defend him all you want like he's a victim, but the dude knows exactly what he's doing with each post. He's a big boy.

I actually really hate it when someone is extremely negative and borderline toxic and then claims that they're just being realistic. I've known people like that in my life and they're just the worst since they're usually trying to railroad you into a really manipulative argument.

 

[Alaskanice]

The attitude here feels really similar to the one that Hodge likes to bring that infuriates so many people; you're painting everyone with the same brush and acting like there's some blind groupthink here of people who have been completely delusional about the potential of players.

I mean, really, how many people around these parts have thought that those players you mentioned were going to turn into world-beaters and take the franchise to another level?

And if people did get enthusiastic at times about players--like, say, Dahlen when he started out hot, or a prospect when they had a good stretch of putting up points--is that really anything that every other fanbase wouldn't do? You can get excited about a prospect and offer up hope for their success while also being realistic and knowing it likely may not happen.

If a few people here and there go overboard, who really cares? Let them dream. I certainly haven't observed too much delusion, not in the grand scale of the matter, in the past couple years on here. The prospect pool being better a couple years ago (but still not good) is an indictment of both the Sharks' success and some front office approaches; the fact that it's better now (but still not great) feels like a pretty obvious fact and just because that previous "better (than bad)" group hasn't panned out amazingly well doesn't exactly invalidate any positive feelings toward this current group.

Thank you for this. I can get discouraged with my positivity and seeing the bitterness here.

 

[Cas]

Be as optimistic as you want, I just get annoyed when people crap all over Hodge for having a realistic perspective on the chances of our prospect pool developing into anything as impactful as a lot of posters seem to believe is realistic.

That's not why people have a problem with that poster.

 

[Hodge]

Then you’re taking guys who were pre-DW Jr (the guy who turned our drafting around)

DW Jr turned our drafting around everyone! Just ignore the fact that the only one of his picks that has panned out so far is Josh Norris who the organization viewed as a future 3C then traded.

Before anyone brings up Ferraro, the guy is a third pairing defenseman and not even a good one. There's nothing useful he does at a NHL average level. He has looked so awful this season without Burns to prop him up.

 

[Gecklund]

DW Jr turned our drafting around everyone! Just ignore the fact that the only one of his picks that has panned out so far is Josh Norris who the organization viewed as a future 3C then traded.

Before anyone brings up Ferraro, the guy is a third pairing defenseman and not even a good one. There's nothing useful he does at a NHL average level.

So getting a 3rd pairing D in the 2nd round isn’t a success? When you say that you can ONLY get NHLers in the first 10-15 picks of the draft. Got it bud. You need to make a spreadsheet of all of your dumb thoughts so you can keep track of them.

 

[mogambomoroo]

As an optimistic dude I understand the realistic/pessimistic view too, I understand that some people don't want to get their hopes up, but also its okay to get excited by the little things. We are all in this journey together.
As non contender, non playoff team it's the little things that keeps a lot of us interested. For example next year draft, or when Merkley, Eklund, Bordeleau, Robins etc. gets a points it's exciting, when Sturm, Svechnikov as 4th liners almost take a game in their own hands, when Mäkiniemi or Mann play well, when Barracuda keeps winning, when Reimer/Kahkonen do well, when Kunin scores... You get the point, when it happens in teal, it's the real deal.

Also I'm just gonna say that as long as the Barracuda plays the way they've played, we are making progress. It's going to different question if that progress leads to guaranteed better results in the big club but that's all we have, because we don't make the decisions.

 

[Hodge]

So getting a 3rd pairing D in the 2nd round isn’t a success? When you say that you can ONLY get NHLers in the first 10-15 picks of the draft. Got it bud. You need to make a spreadsheet of all of your dumb thoughts so you can keep track of them.

Ferraro has honestly been so bad this season I question whether he's a NHL player at all. Just another guy DW's joke of a front office over-promoted when they needed cheap ELC talent after blowing all their cap space on 30+ year olds. That contract is easily Grier's biggest blunder so far but he was sort of put in an impossible position.

 

[Gecklund]

As an optimistic dude I understand the realistic/pessimistic view too, I understand that some people don't want to get their hopes up, but also its okay to get excited by the little things. We are all in this journey together.
As non contender, non playoff team it's the little things that keeps a lot of us interested. For example next year draft, or when Merkley, Eklund, Bordeleau, Robins etc. gets a points it's exciting, when Sturm, Svechnikov as 4th liners almost take a game in their own hands, when Mäkiniemi or Mann play well, when Barracuda keeps winning, when Reimer/Kahkonen do well, when Kunin scores... You get the point, when it happens in teal, it's the real deal.

Also I'm just gonna say that as long as the Barracuda plays the way they've played, we are making progress. It's going to different question if that progress leads to guaranteed better results in the big club but that's all we have, because we don't make the decisions.

I mean it’s not even the pessimism that I have a problem with. Like I get it. Don’t get your hopes up to be let down. Real sad way to live but very very common way at the same time. It’s the constant moving of goal posts. It’s the contradictory views. It’s the never backing anything up with stats and when someone else does, it’s oh those stats don’t matter. Like if those stats don’t matter then bring me some that do! I’m not so stubborn that if you present a valid argument and back it up with stats that I’m going to sit here and dig my head in the sand.

 

[Gecklund]

Ferraro has honestly been so bad this season I question whether he's a NHL player at all. Just another guy DW's joke of a front office over-promoted when they needed cheap ELC talent after blowing all their cap space on 30+ year olds. That contract is easily Grier's biggest blunder so far but he was sort of put in an impossible position.

Got it. You claim 100 games and a guy that’s played 189 games isn’t an NHLer. FIND SOME CONSISTENCY BUD.

Ferraro has been saddled with shit. EK is the only partner he’s had that isn’t garbage and that’s when EK has been able to be himself. He’s had a few chances with Megna (EK that is) but always it ends up with the goalie making a huge highlight save of the year type save to bail Megna out. Ferraro has been really damn good this season and looks like a good 2nd pairing D. I compare him to Marino. Never going to make headlines but solid nonetheless. Issue is that Ferraro has had a corpse, Benning, Simek as his d partners for the majority of the season and it hasn’t worked. He should never be the best player in the pairing. There should always be someone at a similar level or higher.

 

[Hodge]

Got it. You claim 100 games and a guy that’s played 189 games isn’t an NHLer. FIND SOME CONSISTENCY BUD.

Ferraro has been saddled with shit. EK is the only partner he’s had that isn’t garbage and that’s when EK has been able to be himself. He’s had a few chances with Megna (EK that is) but always it ends up with the goalie making a huge highlight save of the year type save to bail Megna out. Ferraro has been really damn good this season and looks like a good 2nd pairing D. I compare him to Marino. Never going to make headlines but solid nonetheless. Issue is that Ferraro has had a corpse, Benning, Simek as his d partners for the majority of the season and it hasn’t worked. He should never be the best player in the pairing. There should always be someone at a similar level or higher.

Is there a different Marino I'm not aware of?

With Ferraro on the ice 5v5 this season the Sharks have been outscored 9-5 with a xGF% of 42. Those are worst in the league, replacement level type numbers. You can argue he's being overplayed which he certainly is but he's also just not good at anything. There are at least a half dozen AHL defensemen who would do just as well/poorly in the same role.

But fine let's give DWJr. Ferraro as a success. That's 2 out of 43 picks that have panned out so far. There is absolutely no evidence he "turned our drafting around." It's all just hope and delusion.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

There is lots of room between “this prospect will never work out” and “this prospect is going to be great.” Nobody knows with any certainty what a teenager will end up becoming. I prefer to remain optimistic but realistic. So, when a pessimist says, “only players drafted in the top 10 will become impact players.” I think, no there are clearly impact players that were drafted in later rounds. When an optomist says, “this late pick is going to be a top 6 forward”, I think, maybe but probably not. When it comes to prospects, too much certainty in either direction is just unrealistic.

 

[Gecklund]

Is there a different Marino I'm not aware of?

With Ferraro on the ice 5v5 this season the Sharks have been outscored 9-5 with a xGF% of 42. Those are worst in the league, replacement level type numbers. You can argue he's being overplayed which he certainly is but he's also just not good at anything. There are at least a half dozen AHL defensemen who would do just as well/poorly in the same role.

But fine let's give DWJr. Ferraro as a success. That's 2 out of 43 picks that have panned out so far. There is absolutely no evidence he "turned our drafting around." It's all just hope and delusion.

More like 2 out of 11 and even then. Since DW jr has taken over (2017-2021 draft) every prospect is still in the system except Norris, Chekhovich, Karlsson, Oberg.
Norris is a 1st/2nd tweener.
Chekhovich was a 7th round pick.
Karlsson was turned into Dahlen who had the mentality of a wet napkin.
Oberg was a good SHL player but 7th round pick again and just didn’t sign.

Now don’t get me wrong there’s plenty of guys who won’t make the NHL that he took. Leaving out 2022 because I haven’t had a chance to see them anywhere near as much as I’d like. Guys who are practically guaranteed to not make the NHL:
Jake McGrew (he actually might be gone i think he wasn’t qualified) 6th
Sasha Chmelevski (think he might come over and be better but oh well I ll give it to you) 6th
Zach Emond 5th
Dillon Hamaliuk 2nd
Yegor Spiridonov 4th
Timur Ibragimov 6th
Alex Young 7th
Timofey Spitserov 7th
Theo Jacobsson 6th

Guys who are the longest of shots to make the NHL (less than 5% chance)
Jasper Weatherby 4th
John Leonard 6th
Artem Guryev 5th
Max McCue 5th
Liam Gilmartin 6th
Yevgeni Kashnikov 7th

Guys with a medium chance to make it or if they make it will make it in a bottom of the lineup role (5%-20%)
Scott Reedy 4th
Santeri Hatakka 6th
Ozzy Wiesblatt 1st
Brandon Coe 4th
Tristen Robins 2nd
Adam Raska 7th
Ethan Cardwell 4th

Guys who could be in impact roles but likely end up as flawed second pair/second line or good 3rd pairing/line guys:
Ryan Merkley 1st
Artemi Kniazev 2nd
Mario Ferraro 2nd
Gannon Laroque 4th
Thomas Bordeleau 2nd
Daniil Gushchin 4th
Benjamin Gaudreau 2nd

Our surefire blue chip guy who should be an impact player:
William Eklund 1st

The thing is that a lot of these picks weren’t first or even 2nds. A lot of these where 4th or later so even getting a might be an nhler prospect is a success at that stage. Right now there’s so many things up in the air with development and these guys missing a crucial year for their development because of covid.

 

[Hodge]

More like 2 out of 11 and even then. Since DW jr has taken over (2017-2021 draft) every prospect is still in the system except Norris, Chekhovich, Karlsson, Oberg.
Norris is a 1st/2nd tweener.
Chekhovich was a 7th round pick.
Karlsson was turned into Dahlen who had the mentality of a wet napkin.
Oberg was a good SHL player but 7th round pick again and just didn’t sign.

Now don’t get me wrong there’s plenty of guys who won’t make the NHL that he took. Leaving out 2022 because I haven’t had a chance to see them anywhere near as much as I’d like. Guys who are practically guaranteed to not make the NHL:
Jake McGrew (he actually might be gone i think he wasn’t qualified) 6th
Sasha Chmelevski (think he might come over and be better but oh well I ll give it to you) 6th
Zach Emond 5th
Dillon Hamaliuk 2nd
Yegor Spiridonov 4th
Timur Ibragimov 6th
Alex Young 7th
Timofey Spitserov 7th
Theo Jacobsson 6th

Guys who are the longest of shots to make the NHL (less than 5% chance)
Jasper Weatherby 4th
John Leonard 6th
Artem Guryev 5th
Max McCue 5th
Liam Gilmartin 6th
Yevgeni Kashnikov 7th

Guys with a medium chance to make it or if they make it will make it in a bottom of the lineup role (5%-20%)
Scott Reedy 4th
Santeri Hatakka 6th
Ozzy Wiesblatt 1st
Brandon Coe 4th
Tristen Robins 2nd
Adam Raska 7th
Ethan Cardwell 4th

Guys who could be in impact roles but likely end up as flawed second pair/second line or good 3rd pairing/line guys:
Ryan Merkley 1st
Artemi Kniazev 2nd
Mario Ferraro 2nd
Gannon Laroque 4th
Thomas Bordeleau 2nd
Daniil Gushchin 4th
Benjamin Gaudreau 2nd

Our surefire blue chip guy who should be an impact player:
William Eklund 1st

The thing is that a lot of these picks weren’t first or even 2nds. A lot of these where 4th or later so even getting a might be an nhler prospect is a success at that stage. Right now there’s so many things up in the air with development and these guys missing a crucial year for their development because of covid.

You’ve literally made these percentages up. Which is fine, I get that it’s your opinion, but to use that to claim Junior turned our drafting around is nonsense. Let’s see some actual results first. The early returns are terrible.

My overall point here is not even to hate on DWJr., although I will admit that’s fun to do. It’s that differences in amateur talent evaluation between NHL teams are small and completely overriden by the sheer randomness of how 17 and 18 year olds develop as players.

The only way to win the NHL draft is to pick high and pick often. There is no secret sauce for beating the odds that DWJr. or anybody else has discovered.

 

[Gecklund]

You’ve literally made these percentages up. Which is fine, I get that it’s your opinion, but to use that to claim Junior turned out drafting around is nonsense. Let’s see some actual results first. The early returns are terrible.

My overall point here is not even to hate on DWJr., although I will admit that’s fun to do. It’s that differences in amateur talent evaluation between NHL teams are small and completely overriden by the sheer randomness of how 17 and 18 year olds develop as players.

The only way to win the NHL draft is to pick high and pick often. There is no secret sauce for beating the odds that DWJr. or anybody else has discovered.

I definitely did make those percentages up. The point is how can you say that all these guys are for sure busts when they are still with the org and developing?

You’re right it’s random. That’s the most logical thing you’ve said so far. No one expected Kaprizov to turn into what he did or Pavelski or whoever. You can’t just write guys off because you don’t like the guy who drafted them.