Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Karl Prime]

I thought maybe Gushchin would be on the trip as a reward for having a good preseason. However with the logjam of forwards he just doesn't fit at the moment. He'll go down to the AHL and have a lot of confidence that he can score at that level after he just had a hat trick against a Vegas team that was playing Pietrangelo, Theodore, McNabb, and Martinez.

 

[Jargon]

I’m sure the message to Guschin was - here’s a list of things to work on, you’re playing top line minutes in the AHL. Keep playing like you’re playing and we’ll see you soon. He’s still a baby.

 

[Herschel]

It’s almost like he’s a bust.

He might end up being but out of the 16 first-rounders taken in the second half of the 2018 draft he is 7th in games played to date.

 

[Deas]

What cup winners has had players close to the max cap percentage? Which by the way is 20%.

Avs highest was rantanen at 11.2%
Tampa with kucherov at 11.5%
Blues 9.1%
Caps 11.5%.

And none of those teams have or had any player that made 10+ mil a season. Of the 82.5 mil cap the leafs spend 33 million on 3 players and a total of 40% of there entire cap on 3 players. That numbers needs to come down drastically for them to even come close to being contenders for the cup. For reference, tampa spends 53.3% of there cap on there entire forwards. And the same for the avs.

"Close to the max" was a poor choice of words by me. What I meant was big contracts in relation to the cap for the season in question. Quite obviously, as no team has a contract close to 20% of the cap (16.5 mil this year and very close to that the 4 seasons prior). McDavid is at 15% but there are like 3-5 of those contracts in the entire league before Mackinnon's kicks in.

12/13 Hawks: I think similar to the 14/15 Hawks.

13/14: Kings: Kopitar 6.8, Doughty 7.0, Gaborik 7.5, Carter 5.27, Richards 5.75, Quick 5.8. Cap was 64.3 so they were definitely top heavy (though someone among these must've been injuried?).

14/15 Hawks: Toews and Kane were at 6.3 mil. Seabrook 5.8, Keith 5.5, Hossa 5.27, Crawford 6.0 (!), Sharp 5.9. Cap was 69 mil so they were top heavy too.

15/16 Penguins: Malkin 9.5, Crosby 8.7, Letang 7.25, Kessel 6.8, Fleury 5.75 (relatively high for a goalie). Cap was 71.5 mil. Top heavy.

16/17 Penguins: Malkin 9.5, Crosby 8.7, Letang 7.25, Kessel 6.8, Fleury 5.75 (relatively high for a goalie). Cap was 73 mil. Top heavy.

17/18 Caps: Ovy 9.54, Kuznetsov 7.8, Backstrom 6.7. Cap was 75 mil. Not top heavy but still a 9.54-contract.

18/19 Blues: Three players 6.5 - 7.5 mil. Cap was 79.5. This is the clear, recent exception as they won without a few big contracts.

19/20 Tampa: Stamkos 8.5, Hedman 7.87. Cap was 81.5. Also and example of not having a huge contract albeit two big ones, but part of that is a couple of bargain deals.

20/21 Tampa: Kucherov 9.5, Stamkos 8.5, Hedman 7.87, two players at 6.75. Cap was 81.5. Semi top heavy.

21/22 Avs: Rantanen 9.25, Mackinnon 6.5, EJ 6.0. Cap was 81.5 Also not that top heavy with one exception, but Mackinnon's contract has special circumstances. Of course that helped them win, but I still think they would've gotten one with a higer paid Mackinnon and think they will get another one with Mack at 12.5, Rantanen at 9.25. Makar at 9.0 and Landeskog at 7.0.

With this said, yes I exaggerated. I think it's a mix. 3-4 very big contracts per winner is not always the case. But it's also definitely not true that big contracts are no no's as in teams without top heavy contracts and superstars have won most cups. We do see less top heavy winners more frequently recently, which is logical given the flat cap-years. GM:s didn't expect that when doing some of the biggest signings in the league.

And I still don't think Toronto has failed in their cap management the past 2-3 years. They are obvious standouts with having 3 out of the league's 7 highest cap hits. They have however had decent to good depth around their stars. It's a case of them having choked, and of course a case of how hard it is to win the cup. It's never a scoop really when a team is eliminated in playoffs since the cap came to be. Several teams are contenders each year. They have had a good shot of winning had they not been chokers, and they have a good shot this season again.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Almost, but not. I mean, is it really that surprising an outcome for an undersized defenseman who just turned 22 and clearly still has work to do in terms of defending better? Especially with a new coaching staff coming in and probably wanting to really get their hands on him and developing him?

Honestly, I thought this was almost the consensus predicted outcome, with the only difference being that Nutivaara is hurt so they could have more easily taken him along. That doesn't mean this isn't a make-or-break year for Merkley--just that the story most certainly hasn't been finished yet.

He might end up being but out of the 16 first-rounders taken in the second half of the 2018 draft he is 7th in games played to date.

I think this whole issue ties back into that draft.

What do the odds of a player drafted around that position look like?

~1-2% chance of being a superstar
~5% chance of being a top-line player
~15% chance of being a 2nd-line player
~40% chance of being a consistent bottom-half player
~40% chance they don't make the NHL in any meaningful capacity

But, applying averages to individuals can be irrational. Merkley was more of a boom-or-bust guy. Say something like this:

~5% chance of being a superstar
~20% chance of being a top-line player
~10% chance of being a 2nd-line player
~5% chance of being a consistent bottom-half player
~60% chance they don't make the NHL in any meaningful capacity

When I take that...how has Merkley improved those numbers in the past 4 years? Prospects who become top players are offensively prolific from practically the start of their pro careers. On top of that, Merkley has done little to beat expectations on his defensive track, which drops his floor. At this point, I see a player with a <5% chance of being a top-line player and maybe a 10% chance to be a top-4 guy...meaning 85% of the time he's a mostly replaceable player or just not an NHLer.

Just as a comparison...going off the top of my head, since 2000 the only top-half-of-the-lineup players drafted at #21 are Tuukka Rask and Rob Fabbri (barely). The last true top-6 forward I can remember (and it's an easy one) was Marco Sturm. The last true top-line player I can remember is Saku Koivu.

 

[Barrie22]

"Close to the max" was a poor choice of words by me. What I meant was big contracts in relation to the cap for the season in question. Quite obviously, as no team has a contract close to 20% of the cap (16.5 mil this year and very close to that the 4 seasons prior). McDavid is at 15% but there are like 3-5 of those contracts in the entire league before Mackinnon's kicks in.

12/13 Hawks: I think similar to the 14/15 Hawks.

13/14: Kings: Kopitar 6.8, Doughty 7.0, Gaborik 7.5, Carter 5.27, Richards 5.75, Quick 5.8. Cap was 64.3 so they were definitely top heavy (though someone among these must've been injuried?).

14/15 Hawks: Toews and Kane were at 6.3 mil. Seabrook 5.8, Keith 5.5, Hossa 5.27, Crawford 6.0 (!), Sharp 5.9. Cap was 69 mil so they were top heavy too.

15/16 Penguins: Malkin 9.5, Crosby 8.7, Letang 7.25, Kessel 6.8, Fleury 5.75 (relatively high for a goalie). Cap was 71.5 mil. Top heavy.

16/17 Penguins: Malkin 9.5, Crosby 8.7, Letang 7.25, Kessel 6.8, Fleury 5.75 (relatively high for a goalie). Cap was 73 mil. Top heavy.

17/18 Caps: Ovy 9.54, Kuznetsov 7.8, Backstrom 6.7. Cap was 75 mil. Not top heavy but still a 9.54-contract.

18/19 Blues: Three players 6.5 - 7.5 mil. Cap was 79.5. This is the clear, recent exception as they won without a few big contracts.

19/20 Tampa: Stamkos 8.5, Hedman 7.87. Cap was 81.5. Also and example of not having a huge contract albeit two big ones, but part of that is a couple of bargain deals.

20/21 Tampa: Kucherov 9.5, Stamkos 8.5, Hedman 7.87, two players at 6.75. Cap was 81.5. Semi top heavy.

21/22 Avs: Rantanen 9.25, Mackinnon 6.5, EJ 6.0. Cap was 81.5 Also not that top heavy with one exception, but Mackinnon's contract has special circumstances. Of course that helped them win, but I still think they would've gotten one with a higer paid Mackinnon and think they will get another one with Mack at 12.5, Rantanen at 9.25. Makar at 9.0 and Landeskog at 7.0.

With this said, yes I exaggerated. I think it's a mix. 3-4 very big contracts per winner is not always the case. But it's also definitely not true that big contracts are no no's as in teams without top heavy contracts and superstars have won most cups. We do see less top heavy winners more frequently recently, which is logical given the flat cap-years. GM:s didn't expect that when doing some of the biggest signings in the league.

And I still don't think Toronto has failed in their cap management the past 2-3 years. They are obvious standouts with having 3 out of the league's 7 highest cap hits. They have however had decent to good depth around their stars. It's a case of them having choked, and of course a case of how hard it is to win the cup. It's never a scoop really when a team is eliminated in playoffs since the cap came to be. Several teams are contenders each year. They have had a good shot of winning had they not been chokers, and they have a good shot this season again.

The kings had 4 players locked up to a total of 43% of the cap. But 3 of those players were at the time considered close to the best at there positions. And it helped that 3 of them were top center, top defensemen and top goalie. Easy to build a team with those 3 positions locked up.

Penguins is the only team to have something close to the leafs in terms of salary allocation in that crosby and malkin both took up 28% of the cap, adding letang to that list brings it up to 39%. But it helps that the top 2 players on that team were and still are considered generational players and 1 is considered a top 5 player of all time by many.

And you keep saying they have depth, but they honestly don't, especially considering they can't afford the 2nd most important position on a team and that is goaltending. Unless you are able to build a team like colorado that is deep offemsively and defensively where goaltending can be skimped out on a little bit. The only way the leafs make noise in the playoffs is by removing 1 of there top 4 paid forwards and using that money on goaltending and better defensive help.

 

[Deas]

The kings had 4 players locked up to a total of 43% of the cap. But 3 of those players were at the time considered close to the best at there positions. And it helped that 3 of them were top center, top defensemen and top goalie. Easy to build a team with those 3 positions locked up.

Penguins is the only team to have something close to the leafs in terms of salary allocation in that crosby and malkin both took up 28% of the cap, adding letang to that list brings it up to 39%. But it helps that the top 2 players on that team were and still are considered generational players and 1 is considered a top 5 player of all time by many.

And you keep saying they have depth, but they honestly don't, especially considering they can't afford the 2nd most important position on a team and that is goaltending. Unless you are able to build a team like colorado that is deep offemsively and defensively where goaltending can be skimped out on a little bit. The only way the leafs make noise in the playoffs is by removing 1 of there top 4 paid forwards and using that money on goaltending and better defensive help.

You nuanced my view on this to some extent. We’ll have to agree to disagree on to what extent it’s good to be top heavy or not, and how good the Leaf’s supporting cast is.

You seem in the know, and I guess is a SJ-fan. How good is Borderleau?

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

I think this whole issue ties back into that draft.

What do the odds of a player drafted around that position look like?

~1-2% chance of being a superstar
~5% chance of being a top-line player
~15% chance of being a 2nd-line player
~40% chance of being a consistent bottom-half player
~40% chance they don't make the NHL in any meaningful capacity

But, applying averages to individuals can be irrational. Merkley was more of a boom-or-bust guy. Say something like this:

~5% chance of being a superstar
~20% chance of being a top-line player
~10% chance of being a 2nd-line player
~5% chance of being a consistent bottom-half player
~60% chance they don't make the NHL in any meaningful capacity

When I take that...how has Merkley improved those numbers in the past 4 years? Prospects who become top players are offensively prolific from practically the start of their pro careers. On top of that, Merkley has done little to beat expectations on his defensive track, which drops his floor. At this point, I see a player with a <5% chance of being a top-line player and maybe a 10% chance to be a top-4 guy...meaning 85% of the time he's a mostly replaceable player or just not an NHLer.

Just as a comparison...going off the top of my head, since 2000 the only top-half-of-the-lineup players drafted at #21 are Tuukka Rask and Rob Fabbri (barely). The last true top-6 forward I can remember (and it's an easy one) was Marco Sturm. The last true top-line player I can remember is Saku Koivu.

I agree with what you said, but I’m excited to see what he can do with a presumably good Cuda team and new coaching. Sommer doesn’t seem like a guy Merks would excel under. I’m not going to be concerned if he has a slow start due to the new systems, but if he isn’t near at or near a PPG in the second half of the season, I don’t see him ever making the NHL as a regular.

With his stature and lack of defense, he needs to be absolutely lighting it up offensively or he’ll be the next Tim Heed. Good enough on offense if he had average defensive capabilities to make the NHL, but not good enough offensively to make up for the lack of D ability and physicality to stay in the NHL.

 

[EXTRAS]

What is the expectation for meiers cap hit next year if he gets 8 years

 

[Pinkfloyd]

What is the expectation for meiers cap hit next year if he gets 8 years

Right now my expectation is nine mil but he has a lot of room to go up or down based on performance this season.

 

[Anomie2029]

With his stature and lack of defense, he needs to be absolutely lighting it up offensively or he’ll be the next Tim Heed. Good enough on offense if he had average defensive capabilities to make the NHL, but not good enough offensively to make up for the lack of D ability and physicality to stay in the NHL.

Looking at the rookie showcase and the preseason games, I think he has picked up his defense. So much that I generally was more worried when players like Megna and Vlasic were on the ice. My issue is that he isn't really providing the offence yet at the NHL level. He shows glimpses but hasn't really found it yet.

I'm looking forward to him being on a Cuda team that isn't complete ass.

 

[hohosaregood]

Looking at the rookie showcase and the preseason games, I think he has picked up his defense. So much that I generally was more worried when players like Megna and Vlasic were on the ice. My issue is that he isn't really providing the offence yet at the NHL level. He shows glimpses but hasn't really found it yet.

I'm looking forward to him being on a Cuda team that isn't complete ass.

I think he finally understands how play defense technically but I don't think he understands how to apply it yet. He's still losing his assignments in front of the net. Kinda the same offensively, he just stick handles his way into a corner too often and runs out of options.

 

[Anomie2029]

I think he finally understands how play defense technically but I don't think he understands how to apply it yet. He's still losing his assignments in front of the net. Kinda the same offensively, he just stick handles his way into a corner too often and runs out of options.

I think this is still a system issue because he definitely isn't the only one doing this. I see the exact same plays from Ferraro, Vlasic, Megna, Benning, etc. I did see him battling a fair bit front of net and actually working to tie up sticks and remove screens.

Where he needs to improve on defense, IMO, is his reaction speed. He is often slow to react to a situation, so he is caught getting to a man or puck late. Part of this could also be him needing to improve his anticipation or reading of what the opposition is trying to do. These are definitely things he can work on in the AHL.

The most frustrating part to his game is exactly what you mentioned about him stickhandling to a spot where he handcuffs himself and tries a centering pass that gets picked off. He shows fantastic skill to beat players, but rather than act quickly to take advantage he keeps trying to beat people.

Overall, I was hoping for a bit more in the preseason for him, but I'm not disappointed. There's been steps he has made, he just needs to continue to grow his game and he'll be a fixture in the NHL. If he gets to that point is still debatable, but overall I think he's improved.

 

[one2gamble]

Right now my expectation is nine mil but he has a lot of room to go up or down based on performance this season.

I was settling in around 9.25 if they want to keep him

 

[hohosaregood]

I think this is still a system issue because he definitely isn't the only one doing this. I see the exact same plays from Ferraro, Vlasic, Megna, Benning, etc. I did see him battling a fair bit front of net and actually working to tie up sticks and remove screens.

Where he needs to improve on defense, IMO, is his reaction speed. He is often slow to react to a situation, so he is caught getting to a man or puck late. Part of this could also be him needing to improve his anticipation or reading of what the opposition is trying to do. These are definitely things he can work on in the AHL.

The most frustrating part to his game is exactly what you mentioned about him stickhandling to a spot where he handcuffs himself and tries a centering pass that gets picked off. He shows fantastic skill to beat players, but rather than act quickly to take advantage he keeps trying to beat people.

Overall, I was hoping for a bit more in the preseason for him, but I'm not disappointed. There's been steps he has made, he just needs to continue to grow his game and he'll be a fixture in the NHL. If he gets to that point is still debatable, but overall I think he's improved.

I mostly agree. I think he can get to an NHL minimum but it's going to take a lot of development work from Merkley and McCarthy's staff to really drill it into his brain. I think he'll get an audition this year and maybe will be full time next year. He definitely has special offensive qualities but I'm very doubtful he becomes a special player. But it'll be weird for him to be an NHLer and able to pull off the special moves he can make while not being a special player.

 

[landshark]

I mostly agree. I think he can get to an NHL minimum but it's going to take a lot of development work from Merkley and McCarthy's staff to really drill it into his brain. I think he'll get an audition this year and maybe will be full time next year. He definitely has special offensive qualities but I'm very doubtful he becomes a special player. But it'll be weird for him to be an NHLer and able to pull off the special moves he can make while not being a special player.

Maybe he should move to forward?

 

[LadyStanley]

Corey rates the players. Paywall.

 

[Barrie22]

So meier's upper limit has been set by the islanders. Barzal signed for 8 years at 9.25 per year.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Meiers gettin traded.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I think Gregor at LW and Kunin on RW could be a really good forechecking 3rd line that could also score here and there. Obviously with our lack of depth it forces Kunin to play up the lineup, but if we could find a C to mesh inbetween them it would be awesome.

Heck I think Bordeleau would actually be decent inbetween them...it would provide him the chance to hold onto the puck alot in which is what he's good at. He may not be ready for that quite yet at the NHL level, but hopefully by mid season.

 

[LadyStanley]

How will the Sharks' defense, goalies fare this season?

Defense is projected to be a trouble spot for the Sharks but can the goaltending fill the gap?

theathletic.com

Paywall. D and G

 

[mogambomoroo]

I think Gregor at LW and Kunin on RW could be a really good forechecking 3rd line that could also score here and there. Obviously with our lack of depth it forces Kunin to play up the lineup, but if we could find a C to mesh inbetween them it would be awesome.

Heck I think Bordeleau would actually be decent inbetween them...it would provide him the chance to hold onto the puck alot in which is what he's good at. He may not be ready for that quite yet at the NHL level, but hopefully by mid season.

I love this idea with 3rd line Bordeleau between Gregs and Kunin! Also some people tend to forget that Bordeleau getting 5 points in his first 8 NHL games and making the 3rd line exciting are excellent signs.
He would also not be targeted physically as much when Kunin is there keeping things clean.

That indicates either Barabanov is back with Hertl/Meier or Eklund/Gusch is brought there.

The main point is get Bonino and Nieto out of the 3rd line and make it exciting. 4th line if Bonino - Sturm - Lorentz could be pretty darn good.

2nd line of Lindblom - Couture - Labanc is pretty what ever, you could try swapping Lindblom with Gregor or Bonino when that line doesn't produce. (Bonino is an option since he had a good chemistry with Couture)

 

[TheBeard]

I don’t think bords fits that third line at all.

 

[JohnLennon]

If Quinn likes Kunin on PP1, do you think there's a chance he stays up there even when Barabanov is back? What about on the first line? They seem to really like him there, and Hertl spoke highly of him as well.

 

[Pavelski2112]

I don’t think bords fits that third line at all.

I could see it in theory, just depends on how the chemistry would work out

Gregor being the F1/transition guy (considering zone entries are what he's good at and nothing after that), Bords as an F2/playmaker, Kunin as an F3/finisher