Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[TheBeard]

If it weren't for all the other bad long term contracts I wouldn't hesitate to resign him, but Karlsson, Couture, Vlassic, our dead money, and likely Hertl eventually, we need some future cap flexibility and Meier is easiest way to do that. And likely the only one that would net a significant return

Yeah. I think they had a choice to make between Hertl and Meier and went with the older guy.

 

[themelkman]

I dont think he will sign here 8x8. A better team could give him that assuming he stays the course of last season

 

[Hodge]

Unless the Sharks offer him the Tkachuk contract Timo should be looking to sign a 2-3 year extension that makes him a UFA at 28-29 years old when the cap is projected to be over $90 million.

 

[seroes]

We can afford Meier at $9 million, along with all of those other contracts. If the cap moves up as speculated, it won't even be tight after 23-24. 23-24 will be tight, no matter what, but there are plenty of guys who could be moved or bought out to save a little cash (Labanc, Lindblom, Barabanov).

I would not trust the cap to go up as expected. Especially with everything going on in the world and all of the potential further economic affects. I think the economic pain is just getting started. I dont see a way that wouldnt affect NHL revenue.

The issue we are going to have even not considering that, is we will have players we need to sign to deals eventually. We will need to make a decision on Kappo in 2 years. Hopefully it will be a decision, and not another failed goalie. We seem to finally be taking the first steps towards a rebuild, having cap space to take on bad contracts would be helpful. Not creating that space by adding future dead money when we might be competitive again would also be a priority for me.

I'm not saying we shouldn't resign Meier, but there are huge benefits to trading him for a bounty.

 

[seroes]

Yeah. I think they had a choice to make between Hertl and Meier and went with the older guy.

I think they could still trade Hertl, but he would need to sign off on it now. But I doubt the Sharks will go that way.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

I would not trust the cap to go up as expected. Especially with everything going on in the world and all of the potential further economic affects. I think the economic pain is just getting started. I dont see a way that wouldnt affect NHL revenue.

The issue we are going to have even not considering that, is we will have players we need to sign to deals eventually. We will need to make a decision on Kappo in 2 years. Hopefully it will be a decision, and not another failed goalie. We seem to finally be taking the first steps towards a rebuild, having cap space to take on bad contracts would be helpful. Not creating that space by adding future dead money when we might be competitive again would also be a priority for me.

I'm not saying we shouldn't resign Meier, but there are huge benefits to trading him for a bounty.

The NHL recently signed a big TV deal

 

[Cas]

I would not trust the cap to go up as expected. Especially with everything going on in the world and all of the potential further economic affects. I think the economic pain is just getting started. I dont see a way that wouldnt affect NHL revenue.

The issue we are going to have even not considering that, is we will have players we need to sign to deals eventually. We will need to make a decision on Kappo in 2 years. Hopefully it will be a decision, and not another failed goalie. We seem to finally be taking the first steps towards a rebuild, having cap space to take on bad contracts would be helpful. Not creating that space by adding future dead money when we might be competitive again would also be a priority for me.

I'm not saying we shouldn't resign Meier, but there are huge benefits to trading him for a bounty.

I'm also not saying we shouldn't trade Meier if the trade makes sense, but he's young enough and good enough that he should be a very valuable player to have for at least the next six years (and thus should be a good contributor to the next good Sharks team), and that the Sharks can afford to resign him to a market-rate deal.

I've played around with more modest cap increases and Meier was still affordable under those. I could play around with zero cap increases and I'll bet the same applies (especially since that will affect every team and thus limit Meier's bargaining power anyway). Note that this includes salary increases to players I expect to keep (or that I'm using as a fill-in - I don't know whether Lindblom, for example is going to stick around, but I expect that someone like Lindblom will probably be acquired or developed internally). That doesn't mean that some juggling isn't necessary - it is over the next couple of years - just that the juggling should be managable with trades, retained salary, buyouts, skimping on a bottom six player or backup goalie by playing an ELC guy, LTIR, and so on.

If the management is smart, the Sharks can be competitive after a few years while doing this. They can also decide that Meier isn't worth the money, and/or that they'd rather take a late first and some lottery tickets for him, which is fair.

 

[TheBeard]

I think they could still trade Hertl, but he would need to sign off on it now. But I doubt the Sharks will go that way.

I honestly don’t know anyone who would take on that contract. It only works here.

 

[sharski]

Sharks love copypastaing contracts

Timo will get the Hertl contract as the first and final offer

 

[one2gamble]

I honestly don’t know anyone who would take on that contract. It only works here.

I dont think thats true but I also dont think you get any value from moving it

 

[LadyStanley]

Boom

 

[TheBeard]

I dont think thats true but I also dont think you get any value from moving it

This team’s biggest downfall is paying for production rather than potential.

 

[matt trick]

I think it’s hard to make a decision on Meier until the draft lottery. If you have a top 3 pick (maybe even top 6) in this draft you might be able to fill the #1 C hole or get Mitkov (doesn’t fill the #1 C, and doesn’t impact roster for 2+ years). Given two of the real prizes are tiny, having Meier and Hertl to insulate a small franchise player (not to mention Eklund) is not a bad thing.

The moment you have a franchise center, #2 C, and a #1 D, the next priorities are depth, starting goalie, and an elite wing. In a dream scenario, said winger is young power forward like Meier.

Three questions. Is a Hertl, Meier, Fantilli, Eklund, Karlsson core enough 4 years from now assuming Grier makes some prudent moves when Burns, Labanc, Vlasic, and mostly Jones are off the books. Similarly i don’t see diamonds, but are there some gold nuggets in the non-Eklund prospects? Lastly, can the team find a top pairing dman if this years first gets allocated to a forward?

This is a really, really good year to tank as there’s a franchise winger, and between 2-4 #1 centers. I’m sure Chicago, Montreal, and Philly will really enjoy them…

 

[Hodge]

Even if we win the Bedard lottery (never gonna happen) it does nothing to address the fact that we need an entirely new top four on defense with zero top four defense prospects in the pipeline. Signing Meier long term makes no sense for the same reason signing Hertl long term made no sense: this team is years and years away from accumulating enough talent to be competitive again. By that point, Meier will just be another overpaid declining veteran.

 

[jarr92]

This is a really, really good year to tank as there’s a franchise winger, and between 2-4 #1 centers. I’m sure Chicago, Montreal, and Philly will really enjoy them…

Not that I think the Sharks will be the worst team in the league, but they have a real shot to be in the top 5 mix if/when EK65 gets injured. From there it's just luck getting into the top 3.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Not that I think the Sharks will be the worst team in the league, but they have a real shot to be in the top 5 mix if/when EK65 gets injured. From there it's just luck getting into the top 3.

The very real likelihood that one of Markus Nutivaara or Mario Ferraro could be our #1 at some point this season is very very hilarious

 

[jarr92]

Even if we win the Bedard lottery (never gonna happen) it does nothing to address the fact that we need an entirely new top four on defense with zero top four defense prospects in the pipeline. Signing Meier long term makes no sense for the same reason signing Hertl long term made no sense: this team is years and years away from accumulating enough talent to be competitive again. By that point, Meier will just be another overpaid declining veteran.

The sense I get from Grier is that he is hoping for a 2-3 year rebuild, which would fall in line with re-signing Timo. If the Sharks somehow get Bedard they especially aren't going the long-rebuild route.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I'm almost 100% on the trade-Meier side. I agree with @Hodge; Meier's prime and the team's window just don't overlap. Too much work to be done...

 

[seroes]

I honestly don’t know anyone who would take on that contract. It only works here.

I think a young team looking for a great 2nd center could. Hertl will be great for the next 4ish years and then they have diminishing returns but still a useful player. Would need to be a good cap situation though.

 

[seroes]

The NHL recently signed a big TV deal

And if the economy goes, people will stop spending money on hockey as a first or 2nd step to save money.

 

[Karl Prime]

And if the economy goes, people will stop spending money on hockey as a first or 2nd step to save money.

Isn't the TV deal the NHL has with ESPN fixed though? Whatever happens with attendance the NHL is still getting the same amount from that contract. Unless that's not the case.

 

[seroes]

Not that I think the Sharks will be the worst team in the league, but they have a real shot to be in the top 5 mix if/when EK65 gets injured. From there it's just luck getting into the top 3.

The Sharks aren't bad enough to finish in the bottom 3 and even if we were, there is now way the NHL would let a small market team like us have the #1 or 2 pick in a year with franchise changing talent at the top.

Isn't the TV deal the NHL has with ESPN fixed though? Whatever happens with attendance the NHL is still getting the same amount from that contract. Unless that's not the case.

It probably is, however that doesn't change ticket or merchandise sales dropping.

 

[Cas]

The Sharks aren't bad enough to finish in the bottom 3 and even if we were, there is now way the NHL would let a small market team like us have the #1 or 2 pick in a year with franchise changing talent at the top.

With our defense (arguably the worst in the league) and forward group, and the question marks in goal, I do think we're legitimately going to challenge for bottom three. The idea that the NHL is going to put their thumb on the scale to send the pick somewhere else is just a conspiracy theory.

It probably is, however that doesn't change ticket or merchandise sales dropping.

At that point, the entire league is taking a bath and everyone's market value gets squeezed.

 

[TheBeard]

I think a young team looking for a great 2nd center could. Hertl will be great for the next 4ish years and then they have diminishing returns but still a useful player. Would need to be a good cap situation though.

A young team won't want to be anchored down by an aging contract if they've got a ton of younger guys to sign. I'm sure Toronto regrets the Tavares deal

 

[seroes]

With our defense (arguably the worst in the league) and forward group, and the question marks in goal, I do think we're legitimately going to challenge for bottom three. The idea that the NHL is going to put their thumb on the scale to send the pick somewhere else is just a conspiracy theory.



At that point, the entire league is taking a bath and everyone's market value gets squeezed.

One with financial incentives.

And that is my prediction.

A young team won't want to be anchored down by an aging contract if they've got a ton of younger guys to sign. I'm sure Toronto regrets the Tavares deal

What they should regret is their inability to win a series. They have more than enough talent but can't get it done.