Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[fasterthanlight]

pappa hassy, dish out some signing bonus cash for picks my man, u got a lotta green man

 

[OrrNumber4]

All the rumors of the Sharks being interested in Petry and Myers; thought they would extract a shiny draft pick for taking that contract. Maybe teams will be more comfortable trading away 2024 picks? It's a year away and a weaker class.

 

[Jargon]

All the rumors of the Sharks being interested in Petry and Myers; thought they would extract a shiny draft pick for taking that contract. Maybe teams will be more comfortable trading away 2024 picks? It's a year away and a weaker class.

Yeah, wondering if they couldn’t extract a 2023 1st rounder from people (you can tell no one wanted to trade a single pick in the first round this year) so they’re gonna try to load up as much as possible for next year’s.

 

[pappaf2]

Would be nice if MGGM could get an EK trade wrapped up sooner rather than later so I don’t have to keep waiting and watching for something to happen

 

[Friday]

Would be nice if MGGM could get an EK trade wrapped up sooner rather than later so I don’t have to keep waiting and watching for something to happen

You'd think it would have to happen now or early in FA when teams still have some space. But who knows

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[STL Shark]

So hey, if anyone was upset about trading him away, he's available.

Didn't really think to mention it anywhere, but Merkley was a healthy scratch for the Colorado Eagles throughout their playoff run, so not very surprising.

Called it 2 years ago that he was a bust but was told it was too early. He's a mega bust.

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

So hey, if anyone was upset about trading him away, he's available.

Didn't really think to mention it anywhere, but Merkley was a healthy scratch for the Colorado Eagles throughout their playoff run, so not very surprising.

Well played well played lol

 

[hohosaregood]

So we got $14m in cap space and we need to sign 4-5 forwards to fill out the lineup. RFAs include Gregor, Peterson, Zetterlund, and Svechnikov. Maybe Johnsson if we want to bring him back. That could probably cost up to $5-6m in total to bring them back.

This leaves us $8-9m to use for cap dumps and potentially another ~$8m from trading Karlsson. That should be a good amount to weaponize cap space in the next season.

 

[Cas]

I like how Myers doesn't even fit in the thumbnail picture.

 

[LadyStanley]

Status quo. Sharks not giving him away. Asking for more in return than most teams willing to pay?

 

[themelkman]

Status quo. Sharks not giving him away. Asking for more in return than most teams willing to pay?

I understand hesitating but if he remains on this team to start this year its a major failure either way

 

[Hodge]

Status quo. Sharks not giving him away. Asking for more in return than most teams willing to pay?

Also in the article is a section on Nylander's contract demands being too high for the Leafs. Apparently the trade market for him isn't great since they're running into the same problem we are with EK65 where potential trade partners can't take on a big cap hit.

How about trading Karlsson with retention for Nylander, then retain 50% on Nylander and trade him to one of the interested teams that might now be able to afford him at $3.5M? Might be crazy but it's worth a shot if nothing else is materializing. I feel like we could get a 1st+ for Nylander at that cap hit.

 

[timorous me]

Important to remember--in lieu of panicking or getting upset--that the Sharks themselves didn't trade for Karlsson until mid-September.

I think it's possible at least a few teams come out of free agency and reflect on their rosters with some displeasure (and post-draft and post-free agency everyone will have a whole lot more time on their hands to focus on making such a deal work). Also possible by that point Hasso will be more inclined to eat more money if Grier can sell him on the benefits of doing so.

 

[Hodge]

Important to remember--in lieu of panicking or getting upset--that the Sharks themselves didn't trade for Karlsson until mid-September.

I think it's possible at least a few teams come out of free agency and reflect on their rosters with some displeasure (and post-draft and post-free agency everyone will have a whole lot more time on their hands to focus on making such a deal work). Also possible by that point Hasso will be more inclined to eat more money if Grier can sell him on the benefits of doing so.

And it's not like there are any comparable defensemen to Karlsson available on the UFA market with Severson off the board. You would also think the venn diagram of teams interested in Brett Pesce and teams interested in Erik Karlsson has little to no overlap.

Still, if I had to guess what's going on it's that Hasso and Jonathan Becher don't want to retain more than ~$3M on Karlsson because any more would signal to the fanbase, STHs and sponsors that the Sharks don't intend to seriously compete for the next 4 years. Even though that should already be obvious to anyone paying attention.

 

[gaucholoco3]

And it's not like there are any comparable defensemen to Karlsson available on the UFA market with Severson off the board. You would also think the venn diagram of teams interested in Brett Pesce and teams interested in Erik Karlsson has little to no overlap.

Still, if I had to guess what's going on it's that Hasso and Jonathan Becher don't want to retain more than ~$3M on Karlsson because any more would signal to the fanbase, STHs and sponsors that the Sharks don't intend to seriously compete for the next 4 years. Even though that should already be obvious to anyone paying attention.

In addition I don’t think teams are willing to pay for the retention discount. SJ would probably view each 25% retention as a minimum of a 1st round pick each but as the trades that have happened this offseason show teams just expect rebuilding teams to give away players as cap dumps. Good on Grier to demand an actual return for retaining salary.

 

[Hodge]

In addition I don’t think teams are willing to pay for the retention discount. SJ would probably view each 25% retention as a minimum of a 1st round pick each but as the trades that have happened this offseason show teams just expect rebuilding teams to give away players as cap dumps. Good on Grier to demand an actual return for retaining salary.

I think the way the market sees it is that the Sharks would need to attach a 1st round pick (not their own but value equivalent to like a late 1st) to move Karlsson without retaining at least 25%. So at 75% he's probably still seen as a pure cap dump worth a 6th round pick/Alex Galchenyuk's UFA rights level asset. At 50% we could get a great return.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think the way the market sees it is that the Sharks would need to attach a 1st round pick (not their own but value equivalent to like a late 1st) to move Karlsson without retaining at least 25%. So at 75% he's probably still seen as a pure cap dump worth a 6th round pick/Alex Galchenyuk's UFA rights level asset. At 50% we could get a great return.

To me, this is totally off-base. Sure, Karlsson has a huge cap hit and he's old, but he's also an incredibly unique player. Even at his full cap he's easily worth his contract; teams just can't fit it.

 

[Hodge]

To me, this is totally off-base. Sure, Karlsson has a huge cap hit and he's old, but he's also an incredibly unique player. Even at his full cap he's easily worth his contract; teams just can't fit it.

Teams can't fit it but even if they could nobody is signing Karlsson to a 11.5x4 contract at 33 with his injury history. 12 months ago, it might have taken 3 or 4 1sts to offload him. The fact it's probably down to 1 is a testament to what a great season he had.

 

[Lebanezer]

Is the assumption here that Karlsson’s level of play is going to crater?

 

[gaucholoco3]

I think the way the market sees it is that the Sharks would need to attach a 1st round pick (not their own but value equivalent to like a late 1st) to move Karlsson without retaining at least 25%. So at 75% he's probably still seen as a pure cap dump worth a 6th round pick/Alex Galchenyuk's UFA rights level asset. At 50% we could get a great return.

As much as I don’t want to believe this I think this is the truth in which case I think the best plan is to keep him to help put Eklund and other developing forwards in a better position to succeed.

Unless he is saying trade or he doesn’t play in SJ which would suck and then just eat 50% and get the best possible return.

 

[Erep]

As much as I don’t want to believe this I think this is the truth in which case I think the best plan is to keep him to help put Eklund and other developing forwards in a better position to succeed.

Unless he is saying trade or he doesn’t play in SJ which would suck and then just eat 50% and get the best possible return.

If he seriously does that, which he wont, you just call his bluff, and suspend without pay.

 

[DG93]

All the rumors of the Sharks being interested in Petry and Myers; thought they would extract a shiny draft pick for taking that contract. Maybe teams will be more comfortable trading away 2024 picks? It's a year away and a weaker class.

100%, they have cap space for it too...and no RHD basically other than Benning after Karlsson is moved soon

 

[timorous me]

In addition I don’t think teams are willing to pay for the retention discount. SJ would probably view each 25% retention as a minimum of a 1st round pick each but as the trades that have happened this offseason show teams just expect rebuilding teams to give away players as cap dumps. Good on Grier to demand an actual return for retaining salary.

I think this is where the benefit to waiting comes into play. Right now, teams may not be feeling the pressure so much. Come September, though, and the eve of training camps, and you just know some managers are going to start feeling the butt sweat gather beneath them.

I also think @Hodge is quite possibly right about Becher and Co. seeing this as a waving of the white flag that fans might be upset about, but I have a feeling that if he does his surveying of social media (hell, he should be on here), especially after a positive draft, he'll see that a lot of fans are actually in favor of the move. But I guess we're the hard-core fans and he has a harder time ascertaining the mentality of the casual fan and maybe worries most about them.

 

[Cas]

Is the assumption here that Karlsson’s level of play is going to crater?

I see no way he's this good again.