Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Le Rosbeef]

We do need some players. We don't need 30 year old players who are signed for 7 more years.

We don't need to give them away, though, Hodge.

If we were up against the cap, sure. If he had some meritable value, sure.
But you're basically saying jettison him. Just no, it's not smart asset management on any level.

 

[STL Shark]

Also with more players every year feeling emboldened to ask out or turn down extensions, you never know who will be available.


It would probably be closer to Hertl and Couture for 4th overall. As in, us giving them that pick to take those contracts. Hertl with no retention for one of their surplus defense prospects like Ceulemans or Svozil looks fair to me.

They're rumored to be shopping some RHD from the NHL roster. Peeke most likely, but Boqvist rumored as well with Severson onboard now and Jiricek needing a spot. They also have a ton of young wingers that Grier could probably use to help accelerate the rebuild rather than drafting those guys.

 

[Hodge]

We don't need to give them away, though, Hodge.

If we were up against the cap, sure. If he had some meritable value, sure.
But you're basically saying jettison him. Just no, it's not smart asset management on any level.

It's extremely smart asset management to move an asset before it goes underwater.

All that said I don't think Hertl would waive his NMC to play for Mike Babcock in Columbus. Maybe a Karlsson trade would help convince him though.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

It's extremely smart asset management to move an asset before it goes underwater.

Your trade value implies he already HAS though! That's the irony. Those assets are nothing coming back.

No reason he can't have a bounce back year if he's motivated to get a move down the line. Would be much smarter to hold onto him and facilitate that than give him up for pennies on the dollar.

Hertl, Eklund, Bordeleau - seems like people are after a preferred whipping boy around these parts lately. We don't have a playoff team but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater here...

 

[Hodge]

Your trade value implies he already HAS though! That's the irony. Those assets are nothing coming back.

No reason he can't have a bounce back year if he's motivated to get a move down the line. Would be much smarter to hold onto him and facilitate that than give him up for pennies on the dollar.

Hertl, Eklund, Bordeleau - seems like people are after a preferred whipping boy around these parts lately. We don't have a playoff team but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater here...

No it doesn't. If the Hertl contract was already viewed as toxic we would need to retain salary and attach picks to move it. I'm proposing a trade where we dump the entire contract and get a potential top 4 defense prospect in return.

I expect Hertl to have a bounce back year. The problem is he would still be signed until the age of 37 for 8 million a year. I understand the cap is going up but that contract is a huge risk for any team to acquire. Hertl is barely worth the money now, what's that going to look like in 3 or 4 years?

 

[Le Rosbeef]

No it doesn't. If the Hertl contract was already viewed as toxic we would need to retain salary and attach picks to move it. I'm proposing a trade where we dump the entire contract and get a potential top 4 defense prospect in return.

Svozil and Ceulemans have a lot of question marks still. They aren't the sure thing you make them out to be. Hertl is, however, a top 6 centre on a team that has very little offense.

Mateychuk, sure. But that's not happening.

 

[Hodge]

Svozil and Ceulemans have a lot of question marks still. They aren't the sure thing you make them out to be. Hertl is, however, a top 6 centre on a team that has very little offense.

Mateychuk, sure. But that's not happening.

What part of "potential top 4 defense prospect" implies I think they're a sure thing? They're just more lottery tickets to add to the Mukhamadullin/Thrun/Havelid pile to increase the odds that we get one long term top 4 defenseman out of that group.

I don't think you're accurately valuing the long term benefit of clearing Hertl's contract off the books. Hertl is a top 6 center right now but what use do we have for that when we're not trying to compete?

When we are hopefully ready to turn the corner in 4-5 years, Hertl will still be making 8 million against the cap but will likely be a 3C or worse. I'd much rather be in a position to spend that money on whoever the 2027 offseason's version of Dubois, Lindholm, DeBrincat, Hanifin, etc. is.

 

[OffSydes]

If EK65 was a FA this year and wanted 4 years, what does he get? That is probably where retention starts.

 

[STL Shark]

If EK65 was a FA this year and wanted 4 years, what does he get? That is probably where retention starts.

Given Severson just got $6.25M and Letang signed for 6 last year at around the same, Karlsson would get probably $7.5 to 8.5 on a 4 year deal (especially with no 35+ contract stuff). I think the number is $3M retention, but the issue there is teams will spend that much in FA because they're only spending money rather than spending money and assets.

It will get done, just going to take time. Could not ask for a better UFA class and market to trade him in though. There are no alternatives with Severson gone (and he was not really in the same ballpark anyway).

 

[Juxtaposer]

I would do something like:

3
Cap dump
Ceulemans or Svozil (basically a B-level prospect on defense)
2023 3rd

For

4
Hertl

Think there’s a deal out there like this that makes sense for both sides. Sharks lose a long-term contract while we rebuild but still have Couture to stabilize the center ice position and ease in kids as they arrive. We guarantee one of Carlsson or Fantilli, add another kick at the can on defense, and replace the 3rd rounder that we lost in the Kunin trade. Columbus gets a high-end 2C right now with all the attributes they want (size, two-way ability, physicality, can pop 60 points consistently) and still gets Smith, who they might have as a 50/50 with Carlsson anyway. Not sure who is a cap dump on their side, but I’m sure we could work it out so that it’s still doable for Columbus salary-wise without retaining.

 

[fasterthanlight]

I would do something like:

3
Cap dump
Ceulemans or Svozil (basically a B-level prospect on defense)
2023 3rd

For

4
Hertl

I like the idea of Hertl to Columbus; I am not sure he would waive for there, but the timelines do seem to work out. But that does seem like a lot to give up just to move up 1 spot for a team that might take Smith anyway. What about Hertl to Columbus for for 2024 1st, 2023 2nd, + cap dump?

 

[Juxtaposer]

I like the idea of Hertl to Columbus; I am not sure he would waive for there, but the timelines do seem to work out. But that does seem like a lot to give up just to move up 1 spot for a team that might take Smith anyway. What about Hertl to Columbus for for 2024 1st, 2023 2nd, + cap dump?

I think that most likely this is a pointless thought exercise, since I doubt Hertl would waive for Columbus when there’s no guarantee they’re even better than the Sharks next year (though I think they certainly will be).

But I want to be realistic about the return for a guy nearing 30 with a big contract, and I also personally really value getting one of Fantilli or Carlsson instead of Smith, much as I really do like Smith.

 

[fasterthanlight]

ek65 with glasses talking about how he wants out of SJ is some supervillian vibes lol; we gotta get rid of him before he takes over the city or something

 

[Grinner]

ek65 with glasses talking about how he wants out of SJ is some supervillian vibes lol; we gotta get rid of him before he takes over the city or something

Wanna be Lex Luther
If he wants to go to Vegas, we're in trouble

 

[TheBeard]

If EK65 was a FA this year and wanted 4 years, what does he get? That is probably where retention starts.

I don't know if any team would give him 4 tbh. They'd probably go 3 max at 9.

 

[Jargon]

If we trade Hertl, I’d like for it to be for an A level prospect (without us losing our 4th to move up one spot, as valuable as that I might be) or a high pick. If it’s Hertl + 2nd for #3 or something, I’d gladly take it.

I don’t really see the need to give up Hertl right now. He’ll be easier to trade after a bounce back year and the cap is going to go up a ton during his tenure here, I don’t really see him as an albatross. He also helps the young guys and *hopefully* starts leading by example next season.

A team with Couture as the only top 6 center is brutal to the point where I’d worry about the development of some of our rookies.

 

[lucky0slevin]

Be honest, would you do that if you were Columbus?

If they want to win now yes. Those young centers won't be quite ready for another 2-3 years anyways

Hertl has a full NMC and a young family. He’s not going anywhere. Thank you Doug Wilson for leaving one last steaming turd on your way out.

I'm pretty sure he would wave to compete. He signed the extension not knowing they were going to tear it down...

 

[Hodge]

If they want to win now yes. Those young centers won't be quite ready for another 2-3 years anyways


I'm pretty sure he would wave to compete. He signed the extension not knowing they were going to tear it down...

Hopefully, but it was already clear we were nowhere near the playoffs when Hertl signed his contract.

We should be trying to clear all contractual commitments beyond 2026 IMO. That’s when Eklund’s ELC ends and if we’re lucky enough that he and Smith/Carlsson and hopefully the top 5 pick in 2024 become stars, we need to be in a position to sign all of them to max term contracts at 10M+ AAVs.

 

[TheBeard]

Hopefully, but it was already clear we were nowhere near the playoffs when Hertl signed his contract.

We should be trying to clear all contractual commitments beyond 2026 IMO. That’s when Eklund’s ELC ends and if we’re lucky enough that he and Smith/Carlsson and hopefully the top 5 pick in 2024 become stars, we need to be in a position to sign all of them to max term contracts at 10M+ AAVs.

By then we're going to have zero cap issues.

 

[STL Shark]

I think that most likely this is a pointless thought exercise, since I doubt Hertl would waive for Columbus when there’s no guarantee they’re even better than the Sharks next year (though I think they certainly will be).

But I want to be realistic about the return for a guy nearing 30 with a big contract, and I also personally really value getting one of Fantilli or Carlsson instead of Smith, much as I really do like Smith.

I think that it is a pretty certain guarantee that CBJ are better than SJ next year and beyond. It took an anomaly of man game's lost this past year to be this bad. Now add Hertl, Provorov, and Severson while also not having Werenski miss 69 games to injury and they should be vastly improved. Plus there is the development of Kent Johnson that should start to pay dividends as well. CBJ are likely a playoff team next year with Hertl.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

How will Hertl fit in with Columbus' new big centerman Patrik Laine though?

Goes to show you Columbus is desperate for centers.

 

[Hodge]

By then we're going to have zero cap issues.

Only if Eklund and our 2023 and 2024 picks don’t pan out as expected. Eklund at 8M, Smith at 10M, Celebrini/Eiserman/Levshunov at another 10M adds up fast and the goal would be to surround them with talented players from outside the org too.

If those guys underperform then yeah we’ll have no cap issues but the team will still suck.

 

[ChompChomp]

I think this is a draft to go all-in to try to get as many first round picks as possible. This draft, and especially the first round, feels like another 2003 NHL Draft. The teams in 2003 that had multiple 1sts did a lot with them:

Los Angeles (Brown, Boyle, Tambellini)
Anaheim (Getzlaf, Perry)
Philly (Carter, Richards)
Florida (Horton, A. Stewart)

and even the Sharks (Michalek, Bernier), Michalek having a great Sharks tenure and both were part of big deals at the time (Heatley, Brian Campbell).

Yes LA and Florida had busts, but that's why it helped having multiple 1sts.

We have two firsts now. If there's a sensible chance (sensible as in the trade makes sense) to get 1 or 2 more 1sts, you take it and run. Even if it means moving on from Hertl, who I LOVE and would be devastated to see gone. Trading Hertl has the benefit of making sure the Sharks are a high lottery team next draft.

 

[TheBeard]

Only if Eklund and our 2023 and 2024 picks don’t pan out as expected. Eklund at 8M, Smith at 10M, Celebrini/Eiserman/Levshunov at another 10M adds up fast and the goal would be to surround them with talented players from outside the org too.

If those guys underperform then yeah we’ll have no cap issues but the team will still suck.

I wouldn't worry about Smith (or whomever at 4) being a major cap hit until 2026 at the earliest. I think we all can assume Karlsson will be traded and by 26-27 only Logan and Hertl will be under contract (and Logan will be in the last year). I'm not too concerned.

 

[gaucholoco3]

What about Hertl at 50% + 26 for 3?

Draft Carlsson/Fantilli then trade back with MTL 4 for 5 + 31 and draft Michkov.

Carlsson and Michkov from a single draft is a dream.