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Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

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TheWayToRefJose said:
Let’s say we get 3rd OV this year. Draft Carlsson.

Timo goes for Holtz + late 1st + Casey.
Karlsson goes for a similar package.
Couture returns a late first.
Barabanov fetches a 2nd.
Ferraro fetches a 2nd.
We finish Last-3rd the next 3 years.

That leaves us with the following:
Carlsson
Eklund
Holtz
Bordeleu
Byfield
Casey
Whatever prospect Karlsson returns
2024 1-3OA
2024 31-34th OA
2024 Late first from NJ
2024 Late first from EK65 trade
2025 1-3OA
2025 1st from Couture trade
2025 31-34OA
2025 2nd from Barabanov trade
2026 1-3OA
2026 31-34OA
2026 2nd from Ferraro trade

Not to mention the 40+ mil in cap space as Hertl will be the only expensive contract.

That’s enough to build a solid core and maybe challenge for a wild card spot in 2027 as long as Grier doesn’t shit the bed with drafting.
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One can only hope that Matthew Benning can lead us to this promised land.
 
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TheWayToRefJose said:
With that many picks/prospects, it’s okay if some bust or only become 3rd liners. If only 30% hit, that should still be 3 top liners/top pairing D man and 4-5 middle 6/middle pairing guys. Fill in the gaps with the absurd amounts of cap space.

NJ fans are on board with the Meier return.

Karlsson can absolutely return that much
with enough retention, which won’t be an issue during a 4 year rebuild.

Shengs sources already suggested Couture has more value than you’d think, especially with rentention. See Karlsson.

Ferraro could absolutely return a 2nd. Look at Mueller, who was worse.

Sorry, meant Bysteadt.

It’s not the pipe dream you’re making it out to be where everything has to end up being the best case scenario, it just can’t be the worst case scenario.
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30% hitting at the top of their potential is a VERY high number. Probably closer to 15% is more likely.

No fans have been okay with including Casey. That’s where most of them stop.

So you want to retain 50% on EK?

Ferraro is horrible and signed to a big contract long term. He cannot return a 2nd.

Yeah realized that after I had posted that you meant Bystedt. My bad!

I don’t think it’s necessarily a pipe dream but it’s definitely more than just nothing going the worst possible way. I think that’s having MOST things go the best possible way and that’s just not likely. I don’t know if 10 years is likely but I’m thinking it’s closer to 7 than 4 unless we get Bedard this year.
 
fasterthanlight said:
One can only hope that Matthew Benning can lead us to this promised land.
Click to expand...
1675968329230.png
 
Eggdoh said:
I don't know about #1C or #1D, but Wheeler wrote that they "have a top prospect at each of the 6 different positions." It doesn't seem like Rossi is a #1C, but he at least seems like a top6 C, and Faber and Lambos seem like two pretty good shots at top 4D. To set them aside from the Sharks even more, Wallstedt is looking awesome. I sure wish we had a young goalie that looked like he might solve our goaltending problems for the next 10+ years.
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If there isn’t both a true #1C and a true #1D in that prospect pool, then I wouldn’t want to be the Wild. They have a good team, and they’ll spend the next ten years struggling to get out of the 2nd round. That’s not what I want from the Sharks.

TheWayToRefJose said:
Let’s say we get 3rd OV this year. Draft Carlsson.

Timo goes for Holtz + late 1st + Casey.
Karlsson goes for a similar package.
Couture returns a late first.
Barabanov fetches a 2nd.
Ferraro fetches a 2nd.
We finish Last-3rd the next 3 years.

That leaves us with the following:
Carlsson
Eklund
Holtz
Bordeleu
Byfield
Casey
Whatever prospect Karlsson returns
2024 1-3OA
2024 31-34th OA
2024 Late first from NJ
2024 Late first from EK65 trade
2025 1-3OA
2025 1st from Couture trade
2025 31-34OA
2025 2nd from Barabanov trade
2026 1-3OA
2026 31-34OA
2026 2nd from Ferraro trade

Not to mention the 40+ mil in cap space as Hertl will be the only expensive contract.

That’s enough to build a solid core and maybe challenge for a wild card spot in 2027 as long as Grier doesn’t shit the bed with drafting.
Click to expand...
This is unbelievably optimistic. Other than the Oilers, no one has ever had four years straight of top-3 picks in modern NHL history. It’s hard to even do it in back to back years.
 
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SJSharks72 said:
30% hitting at the top of their potential is a VERY high number. Probably closer to 15% is more likely.

No fans have been okay with including Casey. That’s where most of them stop.

So you want to retain 50% on EK?

Ferraro is horrible and signed to a big contract long term. He cannot return a 2nd.

Yeah realized that after I had posted that you meant Bystedt. My bad!

I don’t think it’s necessarily a pipe dream but it’s definitely more than just nothing going the worst possible way. I think that’s having MOST things go the best possible way and that’s just not likely. I don’t know if 10 years is likely but I’m thinking it’s closer to 7 than 4 unless we get Bedard this year.
Click to expand...
The 30% was referring to Holtz, Eklund, Carlsson, and the other 1-3OAs, which is a reasonable number for that draft pedigree, at least for top liners. The past 5/6 years have had a similar rate for the top 3/5 picks. Of course it’s possible all of those turn out to be the 70% that don’t live up to the draft position since the sample size would be relatively small, but it could also be possible for more to hit.

The 30% of other late firsts/early seconds/prospects to become middle of the lineup guys isn’t too far off, especially when you consider the 70% of blue chips that I’m accounting to “fail” will probably include some guys who just become middle of the lineup players instead of flat out busting.

I’d say it’s all more in line with things going pretty average.
 
If that's what the Blues got for Tarasenko, I won't be surprised if Grier doesn't even get Holtz let alone Mercer + Nemec if he goes to the Devils. Yikes. Please just keep him.
 
fasterthanlight said:
Also, a dark side of me kind of hopes vegas trades for meier and he signs 8x9M with full NMC, would completely ruin their cap for a few years LOL
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and then decides he’s done trying
Sharkz4Fun said:
If that's what the Blues got for Tarasenko, I won't be surprised if Grier doesn't even get Holtz let alone Mercer + Nemec if he goes to the Devils. Yikes. Please just keep him.
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he wouldn’t have gotten Mercer or Nemec anyway
 
Sharkz4Fun said:
They can rebuild easier with Meier than they can with a late first, holtz (or less), and a cap dump. Don't understand why its necessary to keep repeating this.
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No they can’t. You don’t need to repeat it. You’re just wrong.

Fistfullofbeer said:
Is Timo as good as gone by this TDL? Or is it realistic that he re-signs long term on the Sharks?
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I mean both. 50/50 they trade Timo I think cause Grier is bad.
 
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SJSharks72 said:
No they can’t. You don’t need to repeat it. You’re just wrong.


I mean both. 50/50 they trade Timo I think cause Grier is bad.
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No, unfortunately actually I'm correct. You're going to be an emotional mess when they still have Hertl Couture and Karlsson and they aren't getting 1-3 overall picks.
 
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I actually think its good that NYR is out on Meier because it wouldve been sort of weird for Mike Grier to be making his first huge trade with his old team.

Devils, Canes, or Resign. Just wish we didnt have to move on from our best forward because of all the dead weight on this roster :/
 
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