Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Gecklund]

With someone like Laroque, there's just a lot more uncertainty. His junior production is really good, of course. It's probably fairer to just say "too early to tell with him".

But when you look at players like Coe or Gushchin...it's trending downwards. Gushchin's path to the NHL is as a top-six scorer, and guys who are going to be that are usually doing very well in the AHL in their d+2 year. Coe could be a depth player, but his stat line is just awful and it's not trending the right way.

Gambrell has played more games than Gregor.

Burke's MO isn't "low potential" per se but his tendency to go for college players, emphasizing size and personal characteristics, overlooking skating concerns, having a hard no on players with "character" issues, and not emphasizing "skill" enough.

I can somewhat agree; take 2018 for example. There was nobody available @21 who was going to be a game-changer for the Sharks. But...K'Andre Miller and Nils Lundkvist would be very useful middle-of-the-lineup guys. The same thing will likely be true for their first two picks in 2019 as well.

Everyone in juniors is too early to tell.

I think the biggest thing that you are leaving out is the pandemic. Yes everyone had to go through it but it really messed with these kids development so you can’t use a normal curve. Coe I’ve been saying won’t be an NHLer though for a while.

Gambrell has more games because we tried to force him into a role he couldn’t perform at and continued to do it despite him failing. He played 110 games for us and 63 for a horribly injured Sens team last year. Dude is legitimately terrible.

You literally just described low potential for Burke.

You can’t take picks that weren’t within the next 5 and claim that they should have taken them. That’s revisionist history at its finest.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Everyone in juniors is too early to tell.

In a certain sense, yes. But to the extent that we're trying to count chickens before they're hatched (and even then, avoiding judging 2021 and 2022)...there are trends that hold up well. We can look at Wiesblatt, and even ignoring his draft position, find that someone with his statistical profile is quite unlikely to end up as an NHLer. Just like we can look at someone like Bordeleau and say he has a decent chance.

I think the biggest thing that you are leaving out is the pandemic. Yes everyone had to go through it but it really messed with these kids development so you can’t use a normal curve. Coe I’ve been saying won’t be an NHLer though for a while.

I've thought about this and hope that's the case. But you also don't want to fall into the trap of thinking it only happens one way; the pandemic is going to obscure the fact that some players with bad profiles are actually good, but also that some players with good profiles are actually bad.

Gambrell has more games because we tried to force him into a role he couldn’t perform at and continued to do it despite him failing. He played 110 games for us and 63 for a horribly injured Sens team last year. Dude is legitimately terrible.

Gambrell was an incredibly frustrating player and bungled every opportunity in San Jose...but he still has 200 NHL games, the oft-quoted standard for an "NHL player". He's Ottawa's 13th/14th forward.

Quite frankly, Gregor obviously is flashier with his speed and an underrated shot, but he's also completely screwed up the golden opportunity he had this year (and even last year). I wouldn't be shocked to see him out of the NHL next year.

You literally just described low potential for Burke.

No; those things describe Norris and Hertl, who ended up being very good players as well as Mueller and Gambrell, who ended up being...not very good players. It's just that fans perceive it as being low potential.

You can’t take picks that weren’t within the next 5 and claim that they should have taken them. That’s revisionist history at its finest.

Let me caveat this by saying that the job of an NHL scouting team is to draft the best players possible. So if they draft a guy at #20 who everyone thought was #100, it isn't a bad pick until the player actually turns out bad. And if a player drafted at #101 ends up being a superstar, you have to question the first team for missing out. Otherwise, you get into a ludicrous situation where you absolve the teams that didn't draft #101 at #1-95 but lambast those who missed him from #95-100.

Now, l can mayhaps concede that this is not reasonable for early in the draft, where a team that goes insanely off the board is going to get raked over. But later in the draft, where everything is a crapshoot, I absolutely think you can castigate teams for missing players even if they were drafted rounds later.

 

[Gecklund]

In a certain sense, yes. But to the extent that we're trying to count chickens before they're hatched (and even then, avoiding judging 2021 and 2022)...there are trends that hold up well. We can look at Wiesblatt, and even ignoring his draft position, find that someone with his statistical profile is quite unlikely to end up as an NHLer. Just like we can look at someone like Bordeleau and say he has a decent chance.

I've thought about this and hope that's the case. But you also don't want to fall into the trap of thinking it only happens one way; the pandemic is going to obscure the fact that some players with bad profiles are actually good, but also that some players with good profiles are actually bad.

Gambrell was an incredibly frustrating player and bungled every opportunity in San Jose...but he still has 200 NHL games, the oft-quoted standard for an "NHL player". He's Ottawa's 13th/14th forward.

Quite frankly, Gregor obviously is flashier with his speed and an underrated shot, but he's also completely screwed up the golden opportunity he had this year (and even last year). I wouldn't be shocked to see him out of the NHL next year.

No; those things describe Norris and Hertl, who ended up being very good players as well as Mueller and Gambrell, who ended up being...not very good players. It's just that fans perceive it as being low potential.


Let me caveat this by saying that the job of an NHL scouting team is to draft the best players possible. So if they draft a guy at #20 who everyone thought was #100, it isn't a bad pick until the player actually turns out bad. And if a player drafted at #101 ends up being a superstar, you have to question the first team for missing out. Otherwise, you get into a ludicrous situation where you absolve the teams that didn't draft #101 at #1-95 but lambast those who missed him from #95-100.

Now, l can mayhaps concede that this is not reasonable for early in the draft, where a team that goes insanely off the board is going to get raked over. But later in the draft, where everything is a crapshoot, I absolutely think you can castigate teams for missing players even if they were drafted rounds later.

Coe, Robins, and Gushchin had fantastic point totals last year and now you are writing them off.

The pandemic has nothing to do with obscuring profiles. It made most kids lose a crucial year of development.

I don’t know if I’d call someone an NHLer if they are the 14th best forward on a team that employs the likes of Parker Kelly and Mark Kastelic.

No it is low potential. It’s not perceived low potential. It doesn’t describe Norris at all and Hertl defied all realistic expectations by everyone (except @Juxtaposer who was high on Hertl and banging his drum)

The job of a scout is to get as many of the “best players” as possible. That’s why the Sharks were confident about trading back because they wanted Bystedt. Why wouldn’t they just take him at 11 if they thought he was one of the best players?

That is not a reasonable argument for any part of the draft. Suddenly you are ignoring development and acting like it’s the same anywhere. Who knows if Pavelski or Point or whoever is going to turn out like they did if they were on a different team or in a different situation? You can’t sit there and say yep the guy ranked 100 is better than the guy ranked at 20 and the scouts should have seen that at the time!

 

[Kcoyote3]

In some ways there really is a strategy to wait for the draft lottery/draft before tearing this team down. If the Sharks get Bedard on that 8%-12% chance or whatever it may be, it could absolutely turn this team around WITH Hertl and Meier as centerpieces. It seems ridiculous to say, but given the contracts on the books and the relative talent of the Sharks team vs. other rebuilding squads, it's a legit option to see if a superstar prospect can drag you out of the bottom in a few seasons if you support them with good players. Not saying cup contender, but if the goal is to make the playoffs I guess it might not be a bad strategy just to wait and see if Bedard comes. If he doesn't though, then you really just have to tear this down and try again.

Barabanov-Hertl-Bedard
Eklund-Couture-Meier
Bordeleau-Sturm-Labanc
Lorentz-XXX-Kunin

Buyout or waive MEV, upgrade the defense through trade or signing, pray a goalie from the system works out, etc.

It ain't half bad. Eventually you slot Bedard in as your #1C, Hertl as your #2C, Couture to LW for life, Bordeleau #3C. But it all starts with Bedard.

Alright that's enough pie in the sky dreams, all I'm trying to say is waiting for Bedard to come or not is a legit strategy before deciding to tear it all down. Meier still under control technically then as well, so his RFA rights still have 1st round value likely.

 

[TheBeard]

As much as I love Timo, it’s kinda exciting seeing him be so sought-after and more or less the hottest trade candidate on the market.

 

[sharski]

they're gonna trade him exactly 10 minutes after i buy a timo jersey aren't they

 

[Gecklund]

they're gonna trade him exactly 10 minutes after i buy a timo jersey aren't they

Yes so hurry up and buy the jersey so we can start losing and get Bedard. I’ll chip in and I’m sure you’d get a few others to chip in here too.

 

[landshark]

they're gonna trade him exactly 10 minutes after i buy a timo jersey aren't they

At least you didn't name your cat after him.

 

[Gecklund]

In some ways there really is a strategy to wait for the draft lottery/draft before tearing this team down. If the Sharks get Bedard on that 8%-12% chance or whatever it may be, it could absolutely turn this team around WITH Hertl and Meier as centerpieces. It seems ridiculous to say, but given the contracts on the books and the relative talent of the Sharks team vs. other rebuilding squads, it's a legit option to see if a superstar prospect can drag you out of the bottom in a few seasons if you support them with good players. Not saying cup contender, but if the goal is to make the playoffs I guess it might not be a bad strategy just to wait and see if Bedard comes. If he doesn't though, then you really just have to tear this down and try again.

Barabanov-Hertl-Bedard
Eklund-Couture-Meier
Bordeleau-Sturm-Labanc
Lorentz-XXX-Kunin

Buyout or waive MEV, upgrade the defense through trade or signing, pray a goalie from the system works out, etc.

It ain't half bad. Eventually you slot Bedard in as your #1C, Hertl as your #2C, Couture to LW for life, Bordeleau #3C. But it all starts with Bedard.

Alright that's enough pie in the sky dreams, all I'm trying to say is waiting for Bedard to come or not is a legit strategy before deciding to tear it all down. Meier still under control technically then as well, so his RFA rights still have 1st round value likely.

Hot take (maybe): whatever young C we try to bring in, be it Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Bordeleau, etc, I want them to be on a line with Couture. With Couture who likely should be a winger already as their wing/C, they can split duties and sort of ease into a C role in the NHL.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Far be it from me to but into your discussion but Hertl was absolutely an upside pick. He was a safe choice to be an NHLer in some capacity but don’t mistake that for him being a safe pick without upside. He was inconsistent and in an under-scouted league as an 18 year old but put up a big chunk of points in a good men’s league and put up 5 points in 6 games at the WJC in his draft year. A lot of statistical models at the time really liked Hertl and had him as a top-5ish pick in 2012. We just got lucky that he hit his absolute maximum upside (a lot of that “luck” is Hertl being a gym rat, honestly).

they're gonna trade him exactly 10 minutes after i buy a timo jersey aren't they

Take one for the team, buddy.

 

[Karl Prime]

Gushchin reminds me so much of Hoffman. Hoffman had 25 points in 74 games in the AHL in 10-11, when he was drafted in 2009. Then he bumped up to 49 in 76, then 28 in 41, and then he put it all together with 67 in 51 and earned a call-up in 13-14 where he didn't light it up (6 pts in 25 games) but then the next season he was a solid top 6 winger.

I could see Gushchin spending another 2ish seasons in the AHL developing his offensive game before becoming a guy that could succeed on an NHL team - whether that is top 6 or not.

 

[Gecklund]

Far be it from me to but into your discussion but Hertl was absolutely an upside pick. He was a safe choice to be an NHLer in some capacity but don’t mistake that for him being a safe pick without upside. He was inconsistent and in an under-scouted league as an 18 year old but put up a big chunk of points in a good men’s league and put up 5 points in 6 games at the WJC in his draft year. A lot of statistical models at the time really liked Hertl and had him as a top-5ish pick in 2012. We just got lucky that he hit his absolute maximum upside (a lot of that “luck” is Hertl being a gym rat, honestly).


Take one for the team, buddy.

I didn’t actually get a chance to see much of Hertl in his draft year so I’ll take your word for it. I know st the time I saw him as the safe low-upside pick.

 

[Jargon]

In some ways there really is a strategy to wait for the draft lottery/draft before tearing this team down. If the Sharks get Bedard on that 8%-12% chance or whatever it may be, it could absolutely turn this team around WITH Hertl and Meier as centerpieces. It seems ridiculous to say, but given the contracts on the books and the relative talent of the Sharks team vs. other rebuilding squads, it's a legit option to see if a superstar prospect can drag you out of the bottom in a few seasons if you support them with good players. Not saying cup contender, but if the goal is to make the playoffs I guess it might not be a bad strategy just to wait and see if Bedard comes. If he doesn't though, then you really just have to tear this down and try again.

Barabanov-Hertl-Bedard
Eklund-Couture-Meier
Bordeleau-Sturm-Labanc
Lorentz-XXX-Kunin

Buyout or waive MEV, upgrade the defense through trade or signing, pray a goalie from the system works out, etc.

It ain't half bad. Eventually you slot Bedard in as your #1C, Hertl as your #2C, Couture to LW for life, Bordeleau #3C. But it all starts with Bedard.

Alright that's enough pie in the sky dreams, all I'm trying to say is waiting for Bedard to come or not is a legit strategy before deciding to tear it all down. Meier still under control technically then as well, so his RFA rights still have 1st round value likely.

My concern would be Meier being worth less this summer. It feels like there’s a real bidding war happening right now, teams are in an arms race and Meier is a huuuuge add for a run. In my mind, the perfect Meier trade gives us the potential to plug multiple holes - even if they’re not up to Meier’s ability. If we can come out of it with two blue chip prospects - ideally a D and C (but I’ll take a great winger) and a 1st rounder, that gives us 3 potential players (plus our own 1st rounder - so 4 POTENTIALLY higher end prospects) that can really help make this a balanced team.

Now, I’m not sure if we CAN get two high end prospects (likely just 1 + 1st rounder) but the amount of interest makes me hopeful.

My concern with keeping Meier and getting Bedard is they’re all going to just drag the bones of this team into wildcard spots but with basically no defensemen other than EK65 and terrible goaltending, I’m not sure we’d ever be much of a threat.

Gushchin reminds me so much of Hoffman. Hoffman had 25 points in 74 games in the AHL in 10-11, when he was drafted in 2009. Then he bumped up to 49 in 76, then 28 in 41, and then he put it all together with 67 in 51 and earned a call-up in 13-14 where he didn't light it up (6 pts in 25 games) but then the next season he was a solid top 6 winger.

I could see Gushchin spending another 2ish seasons in the AHL developing his offensive game before becoming a guy that could succeed on an NHL team - whether that is top 6 or not.

Guschin has seemingly done well wherever he’s gone and he really has some high-end skill. He seems like a smart kid and my hope is that, yeah, it may take some time to adapt, but if he does, he can surprise everyone.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I didn’t actually get a chance to see much of Hertl in his draft year so I’ll take your word for it. I know st the time I saw him as the safe low-upside pick.

The narrative on Hertl in his draft year was absolutely that he was a safe pick. I just mean that the narrative was very wrong.

 

[tahoesharksfan]

they're gonna trade him exactly 10 minutes after i buy a timo jersey aren't they

Add a Couture jersey to your order…

 

[Pinkfloyd]

In some ways there really is a strategy to wait for the draft lottery/draft before tearing this team down. If the Sharks get Bedard on that 8%-12% chance or whatever it may be, it could absolutely turn this team around WITH Hertl and Meier as centerpieces. It seems ridiculous to say, but given the contracts on the books and the relative talent of the Sharks team vs. other rebuilding squads, it's a legit option to see if a superstar prospect can drag you out of the bottom in a few seasons if you support them with good players. Not saying cup contender, but if the goal is to make the playoffs I guess it might not be a bad strategy just to wait and see if Bedard comes. If he doesn't though, then you really just have to tear this down and try again.

Barabanov-Hertl-Bedard
Eklund-Couture-Meier
Bordeleau-Sturm-Labanc
Lorentz-XXX-Kunin

Buyout or waive MEV, upgrade the defense through trade or signing, pray a goalie from the system works out, etc.

It ain't half bad. Eventually you slot Bedard in as your #1C, Hertl as your #2C, Couture to LW for life, Bordeleau #3C. But it all starts with Bedard.

Alright that's enough pie in the sky dreams, all I'm trying to say is waiting for Bedard to come or not is a legit strategy before deciding to tear it all down. Meier still under control technically then as well, so his RFA rights still have 1st round value likely.

I think you can run the strategy but the odds of it panning out even getting Bedard are still about the same as it is for them to get Bedard in the first place so they probably shouldn't be operating their team with this sort of possibility in the forefront. The issue will end up coming back to them not having enough cap flexibility to make the numerous adjustments they'd have to make to be playoff competitive at this stage. One, that forward group has three rookies in it at each of the top three lines. The odds that they all are consistent enough to allow the team to win consistently just doesn't seem very good at all. Plus, the blue line is in such shambles that we would either have to believe one of Ferraro or Vlasic can take top four duties or one of them is relegated to the 3rd pairing with Benning and we'd have to get at least two top four caliber defensemen, but more likely three because if you're going to run this, you better have someone legit opposite Karlsson instead of asking him to carry an AHL'er when he's out there all the time.

I just don't see it. The turnover required would just be too much and the less turnover option is too mediocre. In Meier's case, I think it's already pretty much done and over with and he's gone. There's no sense keeping him for one year at 10 mil to possibly make the playoffs with our more rosy setup that still likely gets us ousted in the first round as a likely best case scenario. Karlsson you can wait and see since you were probably waiting for the offseason to move him anyway. I'd still move Karlsson even if we got Bedard honestly because we just don't have the flexibility to surround Bedard with enough talent to compete and probably won't until 2026 at the earliest.

 

[Shark Finn]

they're gonna trade him exactly 10 minutes after i buy a timo jersey aren't they

Add a Couture jersey to your order…

Make it Vlasic!

 

[TheBeard]

they're gonna trade him exactly 10 minutes after i buy a timo jersey aren't they

Well, if you're still buying a Timo jersey knowing what's out there, that's kinda on you.

 

[Gecklund]

Give me Quinn or Peterka and a first and I’m happy.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Give me Quinn or Peterka and a first and I’m happy.

Kulich and a first would be more likely and I’d be fine with it

 

[Beerz]

Give me Quinn or Peterka and a first and I’m happy.

I'd do Quinn and a 1st contingent on our ability to re-sign him.

 

[Gecklund]

Kulich and a first would be more likely and I’d be fine with it

Yeah I think Kulich or Ostlund and a first I’d do.

I'd do Quinn and a 1st contingent on our ability to re-sign him.

I’d jump at that package. Quinn is a bit better prospect than Holtz and that first is a bit higher than NJD’s.

 

[Beerz]

I think Meier would be a perfect fit for Cozens and making up 2/3rds of a shut down line that can also produce.

I think he is perfect for us.. im just not confident he would re-sign.

What you think he is going to be willing to accept for a contract offer?

 

[Gecklund]

I think Meier would be a perfect fit for Cozens and making up 2/3rds of a shut down line that can also produce.

I think he is perfect for us.. im just not confident he would re-sign.

What you think he is going to be willing to accept for a contract offer?

If I had to guess it would be something like 8-9 for eight years.

 

[Beerz]

If I had to guess it would be something like 8-9 for eight years.

Lets hope weather isn't important to him He's been rather spoiled lol