Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[OrrNumber4]

I’d be okay with Mercer. The thing is that he’s probably a bit safer but has a bit lower ceiling than Holtz. It’s kind of a toss up though.

In any comparison with Holtz, Mercer has a lot going for him since he's a year younger and producing well in the NHL. Why would you rather have Holtz?

 

[Gecklund]

In any comparison with Holtz, Mercer has a lot going for him since he's a year younger and producing well in the NHL. Why would you rather have Holtz?

I think I’d personally rather Mercer but kind of a toss up on Holtz or Mercer. Holtz definitely has a higher ceiling. He also is much more of a scorer than any of our prospects. Mercer is a bit of a safer prospect but still a high(ish) ceiling. He’s not as much of a natural scorer. Mercer I think can be a C too but likely ends up as a complimentary winger that I think could fit really well with a guy like Eklund and Bordeleau. Holtz can be a really good scoring winger. I mean Holtz in the AHL was a PPG and is still only 21.

 

[Alaskanice]

In any comparison with Holtz, Mercer has a lot going for him since he's a year younger and producing well in the NHL. Why would you rather have Holtz?

How about Sharagonovich?

 

[Juxtaposer]

It's tough with that window because it takes time for players to develop.

So just to be clear, you can’t judge anyone else during that time period, just Doug Wilson Jr.?

You know what I'm going to say; I raise an eyebrow when people "defend picks at the time" but also "defend how picks turn out". It's playing tennis without the net.

Also...were Norris and Ferraro Wilson Jr picks? Burke was still head of scouting, and both picks are his MO.

Hindsight is 20/20. Merkley wasn’t the best pick, in hindsight, but the philosophy behind drafting Merkley is something I agree with and I loved the pick at the time. No pick is a guarantee, and I’d rather have tried for a star and failed than to have a fourth liner or #6D.

 

[Jargon]

It really feels like Timo is going to the Devils - so much smoke there and has been for quite some time now. I hope there’s significant competition for him that drives his price way up — and I hope that Grier can get a good haul. I’m still unsure of his trading abilities but you also have to imagine that he realizes this trade HAS to be a successful one for this franchise and is swinging for the fences.

 

[Alaskanice]

It really feels like Timo is going to the Devils - so much smoke there and has been for quite some time now. I hope there’s significant competition for him that drives his price way up — and I hope that Grier can get a good haul. I’m still unsure of his trading abilities but you also have to imagine that he realizes this trade HAS to be a successful one for this franchise and is swinging for the fences.

The Devils board is talking up the competition with the Rangers and Carolina.

 

[Harbessix]

In any comparison with Holtz, Mercer has a lot going for him since he's a year younger and producing well in the NHL. Why would you rather have Holtz?

Mercer is like 3 months older than Holtz, not a year younger but yes he’s been the better player thus far.

 

[HellOnIce]

Mercer is like 3 months older than Holtz, not a year younger but yes he’s been the better player thus far.

I'd be shocked if they made Mercer available.

 

[Harbessix]

I'd be shocked if they made Mercer available.

As would I. Personally I’d be quite happy with Holtz, 1st, Bahl/Mukhamadullin and a cap dump for Meier @ 50%.

 

[boredatwork]

What are the arguments for and against Holtz? Don’t know much about him, but I agree with others that whatever package potentially comes back needs to be a win down the road.

 

[Gecklund]

What are the arguments for and against Holtz? Don’t know much about him, but I agree with others that whatever package potentially comes back needs to be a win down the road.

Arguments for:
Dude is a scorer whose shot is his best asset. He lit up the AHL as a 20-21 year old scoring 52 in 52 (I think on this definitely PPG though just don’t remember exact numbers). He played with Eklund and had chemistry with him. He will for sure be our best scoring prospect we’ve had in years. He’s not small (not big either but not small) and a good skater. He could easily turn into a Jason Robertson type winger.

Argument against:
He has not looked good at the NHL level. He has 6 points in 27 games. Despite having good speed and not being small, he’s not as much of a play driver as he could be. He disappears at times in games. He’s not great defensively.

My counter arguments to the against:
He’s 21 in the NHL, playing in the bottom 6 of a team with great forwards. He’s getting no PP time. He still drives play and I think could grow in that aspect with the right coaching/development. I can’t tell if him disappearing is more due to the level of competition but he definitely has the skill. His effort on defense IS THERE. It just needs to be honed.

Long story short, Holtz would be right there with Eklund as the best prospect this team has had since Timo. He could easily turn into a fantastic scorer. While he won’t have the same power forward possession capability of Timo, he could definitely help alleviate the loss of his scoring.

 

[themelkman]

What are the arguments for and against Holtz? Don’t know much about him, but I agree with others that whatever package potentially comes back needs to be a win down the road.

Basically hes been great in the AHL but kind of done nothing in the NHL so far. 27 games, 6 points. Spent most of this year healthy scratched for some reason rather than down in the A.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

Arguments for:
Dude is a scorer whose shot is his best asset. He lit up the AHL as a 20-21 year old scoring 52 in 52 (I think on this definitely PPG though just don’t remember exact numbers). He played with Eklund and had chemistry with him. He will for sure be our best scoring prospect we’ve had in years. He’s not small (not big either but not small) and a good skater. He could easily turn into a Jason Robertson type winger.

Argument against:
He has not looked good at the NHL level. He has 6 points in 27 games. Despite having good speed and not being small, he’s not as much of a play driver as he could be. He disappears at times in games. He’s not great defensively.

My counter arguments to the against:
He’s 21 in the NHL, playing in the bottom 6 of a team with great forwards. He’s getting no PP time. He still drives play and I think could grow in that aspect with the right coaching/development. I can’t tell if him disappearing is more due to the level of competition but he definitely has the skill. His effort on defense IS THERE. It just needs to be honed.

Long story short, Holtz would be right there with Eklund as the best prospect this team has had since Timo. He could easily turn into a fantastic scorer. While he won’t have the same power forward possession capability of Timo, he could definitely help alleviate the loss of his scoring.

Honestly, that sounds almost identical to Timo before his 3rd season (age 22) when he broke out.

I recall Wild fans not wanting to trade Niederriter for Timo because they thought Timo was going to be a 3rd liner or bust.

 

[Lebanezer]

If anyone thinks Burke was watching the Devils for any other reason than John Marino, then you do not know Tim Burke.

 

[Gecklund]

Honestly, that sounds almost identical to Timo before his 3rd season (age 22) when he broke out.

I recall Wild fans not wanting to trade Niederriter for Timo because they thought Timo was going to be a 3rd liner or bust.

Didn’t Timo have mono or something like that in his first AHL season and said it really affected his play?

If anyone thinks Burke was watching the Devils for any other reason than John Marino, then you do not know Tim Burke.

Marino is on IR so I hope Burke got a refund!

 

[Jargon]

Let’s keep tanking, win Bedard, get Holtz,

Didn’t Timo have mono or something like that in his first AHL season and said it really affected his play?

Marino is on IR so I hope Burke got a refund!

Wasn’t Couture the Mono-ey one?

 

[Shark Finn]

Apparently Holtz plays with number 10, so that's good.

 

[landshark]

Didn’t Timo have mono or something like that in his first AHL season and said it really affected his play?

Wasn’t Couture the Mono-ey one?

They both had mono

 

[OrrNumber4]

So just to be clear, you can’t judge anyone else during that time period, just Doug Wilson Jr.?

Only when it comes to finding star/elite players after the third round. Is anyone the Sharks drafted from 2018-2021 even trending that way?

Burke's worst period was 2013-2016, where, not counting Meier, he got a top-six forward and a handful of tweener players. With 2 first-round picks and 5 second-rounders.

If you take 2018-2021, not counting Eklund, do you think Wilson Jr. will beat Burke? It's not trending well for him.

 

[Gecklund]

Only when it comes to finding star/elite players after the third round. Is anyone the Sharks drafted from 2018-2021 even trending that way?

Burke's worst period was 2013-2016, where, not counting Meier, he got a top-six forward and a handful of tweener players. With 2 first-round picks and 5 second-rounders.

If you take 2018-2021, not counting Eklund, do you think Wilson Jr. will beat Burke? It's not trending well for him.

I mean Gushchin was a 3rd rounder, Laroque a 4th, Cardwell a 4th, Coe a 4th, Karlsson a 3rd all of them have varying degrees of likelihood of becoming NHLers.

From 13-16 the only NHLers we have are Gregor (debatable), Timo, Balcers (debatable), Labanc (man I hate him). Don’t know where you’re getting handful.

Also where did 2017 draft go? That was DWjr first year. Even though it’s still early DWjr drafted Norris, Ferraro who are already NHLers and a ton of guys tracking that way. I won’t give him credit just yet for guys tracking that way because well Gambrell.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I mean Gushchin was a 3rd rounder, Laroque a 4th, Cardwell a 4th, Coe a 4th, Karlsson a 3rd all of them have varying degrees of likelihood of becoming NHLers.

We'll see. Right now, I'd say only Karlsson has a >50% chance of becoming an NHLer.

From 13-16 the only NHLers we have are Gregor (debatable), Timo, Balcers (debatable), Labanc (man I hate him). Don’t know where you’re getting handful.

I mean, if Gushchin turns into Balcers and Cardwell to Gregor, it'd be a good thing. I do think that Gambrell roughly falls into the "debatable" category.

Also where did 2017 draft go? That was DWjr first year. Even though it’s still early DWjr drafted Norris, Ferraro who are already NHLers and a ton of guys tracking that way. I won’t give him credit just yet for guys tracking that way because well Gambrell.

Was it? Because the Norris and Ferraro picks are classic Burke. I can see Jr's influence in guys like Chmelevski and Chekhovich...

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[Gecklund]

We'll see. Right now, I'd say only Karlsson has a >50% chance of becoming an NHLer.


I mean, if Gushchin turns into Balcers and Cardwell to Gregor, it'd be a good thing. I do think that Gambrell roughly falls into the "debatable" category.

Was it? Because the Norris and Ferraro picks are classic Burke. I can see Jr's influence in guys like Chmelevski and Chekhovich...

Linus Karlsson has 29 points in 39 games in his first AHL season. Never mind now I see what you said. I disagree 100%. Some of the guys I listed aren’t locks by any means but I think Laroque especially has a higher chance than 50%.

I think Gushchin has a lot more offensive skill than Balcers. One of those wait and sees. Gambrell is trash and is definitely not in the debatable category unless you want to classify Weatherby in the debatable category.

Norris I don’t think fits Burke’s MO of big bruising low potential guys and fits DWjr’s more of good skating transition guys. It’s similar to the Bystedt pick last year where I think there was definitely traces of both of them but more Jr. Ferraro yes you’re right fits Burke’s picks more but still fits Jrs too.

Here’s the thing. Y’all are shitting on Jr when he has helped our prospect pool immensely. Yes he has had higher picks than Burke did but under Burke our prospect pool was never ranked about like 27. Scott Wheeler just ranked us 17. Did Jr take some risks and will he have misses? f*** yeah he will. Was he perfect? Hell no. I think Jr takes a lot of criticism and I don’t really think there’s a reason for it. You look at the next 5 picks on each of his picks and you likely aren’t going to find much better prospects. Hell I’m slow at work so I’m going to do it!

 

[Gecklund]

You look at the next 5 picks on each of his picks and you likely aren’t going to find much better prospects. Hell I’m slow at work so I’m going to do it!

I did it. 2018-2020 (2021 is too soon so didn’t want to do that yet) I’ll put them in spoiler tags so it’s not a huge post.

2018:

Spoiler

Merkley: Miller, Lundestrom?

Karlsson: Dewar?

Weatherby: Hofer?

Emond: no one

Leonard: Koepke?

So basically the only obvious one is K’Andre Miller over Merkley.

2019:

Spoiler

Kniazev: Nick Robertson?

Hamaliuk: awful pick, Leason, Bolduc, Johansson

Spiridonov: no one

Ibragimov: no one

Hatakka: no one

So only Hamaliuk who we all say wasn’t a good pick

2020:

Spoiler

Ozzy: bad pick, Wallinder, Jarventie, Peterka, Grans

Bordeleau: O’Rourke? Evangelista?

Robins: Lohrei? Hirvonen?

Gushchin: no one

Coe: Savoie? Garand?

Young/Raska/Oberg/Spitserov: Levi

Ozzy is the most obvious pick here. I didn’t do 2021 because while looking at this draft it’s all prospects now.

So basically all of this to say that Jr’s only real misses were Ozzy, Hamaliuk, and Merkley. The rest realistically there was no one there that ended up better.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Linus Karlsson has 29 points in 39 games in his first AHL season. Never mind now I see what you said. I disagree 100%. Some of the guys I listed aren’t locks by any means but I think Laroque especially has a higher chance than 50%.

With someone like Laroque, there's just a lot more uncertainty. His junior production is really good, of course. It's probably fairer to just say "too early to tell with him".

But when you look at players like Coe or Gushchin...it's trending downwards. Gushchin's path to the NHL is as a top-six scorer, and guys who are going to be that are usually doing very well in the AHL in their d+2 year. Coe could be a depth player, but his stat line is just awful and it's not trending the right way.

I think Gushchin has a lot more offensive skill than Balcers. One of those wait and sees. Gambrell is trash and is definitely not in the debatable category unless you want to classify Weatherby in the debatable category.

Gambrell has played more games than Gregor.

Norris I don’t think fits Burke’s MO of big bruising low potential guys and fits DWjr’s more of good skating transition guys. It’s similar to the Bystedt pick last year where I think there was definitely traces of both of them but more Jr. Ferraro yes you’re right fits Burke’s picks more but still fits Jrs too.

Burke's MO isn't "low potential" per se but his tendency to go for college players, emphasizing size and personal characteristics, overlooking skating concerns, having a hard no on players with "character" issues, and not emphasizing "skill" enough.

You look at the next 5 picks on each of his picks and you likely aren’t going to find much better prospects. Hell I’m slow at work so I’m going to do it!

I can somewhat agree; take 2018 for example. There was nobody available @21 who was going to be a game-changer for the Sharks. But...K'Andre Miller and Nils Lundkvist would be very useful middle-of-the-lineup guys. The same thing will likely be true for their first two picks in 2019 as well.