2022/23 Roster Thread XV: Where Optional Skates are Mandatory

[ajgoal]

As far as I'm aware, those Defensive/Offensive +/- stats on the Athletic cards are just a combo of raw and relative GA/GF and xGA/xGF stats at 5v5, with some relTM bending. It's not as revelatory as you might think as a catch-all, with the inherent limitations of blurring actual and theoretical results. I was just using them because I'm sure Charlie was using them. Cates has been good defensively by pretty much every measure, but the same goes for the other side.

Thanks. Do they actually make their formula public? I have issues with statistical models where the results are produced but the model itself isn't made available to be picked apart. I also haven't looked at the cards you're talking about, so I'm sure that doesn't help with my lack of understanding. I keep saying I'll dive more into getting a handle on these things when I stop burying myself in courses, but that hasn't happened yet.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You'd hope that Frost is significantly better offensively than a defensive oriented rookie who was switched to center, wouldn't you?
The question with Frost right now is whether he can generate enough offense to be a respectable 3C.
To me, that would be something on the order of 30 ES points a year, or 1.7-1.8 pp/60 at 5x5.
I see nothing that suggests he's a 2C, but players will surprise you.

You mean the Frost who the team has had focus mainly on defense for years now?

Yes, I think it's very clear that your standards and ability to apply context shifts depending on what management decision you have to defend.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

“I was wrong.”

I figured I’d type that up in case it’s needed in this thread.

 

[deadhead]

You mean the Frost who the team has had focus mainly on defense for years now?

Yes, I think it's very clear that your standards and ability to apply context shifts depending on what management decision you have to defend.

Frost didn't "focus" on defense, he focused on playing without the puck.
In the CHL and AHL, he was the 1C and had the puck a lot and was never under a lot of pressure to play hard without the puck.
In the NHL, he's simply not good enough offensively to half ass it when he doesn't have the puck.

I'd point out that Nico is very good defensively and that doesn't seem to have crippled his offense - maybe because when you back check consistently, you get scoring opportunities from flipping the ice and skating the other way on odd man breakouts.

 

[FlyerNutter]

MJL lite.

 

[Magua]

MJL lite.

Last time I perused a page or two there in the off-season, he was ranting about how much he hated Fletcher, Risto, and so on. It was a truly “when pigs fly” moment. I don’t know what’s real anymore. But if even he’s on the side of reason…..

 

[BiggE]

Last time I perused a page or two there in the off-season, he was ranting about how much he hated Fletcher, Risto, and so on. It was a truly “when pigs fly” moment. I don’t know what’s real anymore. But if even he’s on the side of reason…..

Yeah I pop in once in a while. He’s still an argumentative f***, but he hates Cuck, Torts and Fisto so he can’t be all bad.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Last time I perused a page or two there in the off-season, he was ranting about how much he hated Fletcher, Risto, and so on. It was a truly “when pigs fly” moment. I don’t know what’s real anymore. But if even he’s on the side of reason…..

Following the movie beautifully.

 

[VladDrag]

Thanks. Do they actually make their formula public? I have issues with statistical models where the results are produced but the model itself isn't made available to be picked apart. I also haven't looked at the cards you're talking about, so I'm sure that doesn't help with my lack of understanding. I keep saying I'll dive more into getting a handle on these things when I stop burying myself in courses, but that hasn't happened yet.

Charlie often uses Evolving Hockey’s RAPM model in his discussions…

“Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) is a method for evaluating skater performance that seeks to improve on the known issues with on-ice metrics (such as raw on-ice Corsi For %, etc.). Raw on-ice skater ratings are inherently impacted by the teammates a player plays with, the opponents they play against, a player’s percentage of zone starts in the offensive or defensive zone, back to back games, etc. There are many aspects of the game that players have no control over. The goal of RAPM is to control for these aspects and provide a better measure of a player’s offensive or defensive ability.

RAPM seeks to account for all these factors by using a statistical technique called linear regression (specifically, a regularized linear regression called ridge regression). This allows us to control for all teammates, opponents, score state, zone starts, etc. at the same time further increasing the accuracy of a specific player’s rating. The method can be used at various strength states and for various metrics. On Evolving-Hockey, we provide 2 strength states (EV & PP/SH) with 3 separate metrics (Goals, Expected Goals, and Corsi). Each regression is run for each season and players are separated by team (traded players are split into multiple versions of themselves – one version for each team they played for in each season).

The name “Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus” is taken from basketball statistics where this method was originally developed (see our References Page for links to the foundational works of RAPM in basketball and hockey). Our full RAPM model writeup can be found here.”

Evolving-Hockey

evolving-hockey.com

The RAPM data is behind a paywall. But you can look at the dataset as well.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Frost didn't "focus" on defense, he focused on playing without the puck.
In the CHL and AHL, he was the 1C and had the puck a lot and was never under a lot of pressure to play hard without the puck.
In the NHL, he's simply not good enough offensively to half ass it when he doesn't have the puck.

I'd point out that Nico is very good defensively and that doesn't seem to have crippled his offense - maybe because when you back check consistently, you get scoring opportunities from flipping the ice and skating the other way on odd man breakouts.

The team had him specifically obsessing over defense without the puck. They stated this repeatedly, Frost stated that they had him doing that.

 

[deadhead]

The team had him specifically obsessing over defense without the puck. They stated this repeatedly, Frost stated that they had him doing that.

Yes, because if you're not helping on defense without the puck, you're basically useless for half the time you're on the ice (since most of the team you possess the puck little more than 50%, even if you're good at puck possession).

Torts has said Frost is on the ice to generate offense, not be a forechecker, but when the other team has the puck, he doesn't want him cherry picking or skating at half speed to conserve energy until they get the puck back. Get back in position and stick check to break up plays.

Makes sense to me.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yes, because if you're not helping on defense without the puck, you're basically useless for half the time you're on the ice (since most of the team you possess the puck little more than 50%, even if you're good at puck possession).

Torts has said Frost is on the ice to generate offense, not be a forechecker, but when the other team has the puck, he doesn't want him cherry picking or skating at half speed to conserve energy until they get the puck back. Get back in position and stick check to break up plays.

Makes sense to me.

Torts has been here for months he's had Frost an even shorter amount of time. The rest of the clown show has been handling his development priorities for years.

Why is it that a focus on defensive play is adequate excuse for Cates but not Frost? Why the double standard?

 

[Magua]

Frost has been a lot more defensively sound than his longtime critics would have you belief. More than the organization itself could believe. It is simply not a weakness — at worst it’s average.

They obsessed over something that was not a high frequency weakness, to the point his high frequency strengths at lower levels became low frequency strengths. Now, he’s criticized for that too. If the Flyers developed single cell organisms a billion years ago, they’d still be single cell organisms. But hard to evolve against.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Frost has been a lot more defensively sound than his longtime critics would have you belief. More than the organization itself could believe. It is simply not a weakness — at worst it’s average.

They obsessed over something that was not a high frequency weakness, to the point his high frequency strengths at lower levels became low frequency strengths. Now, he’s criticized for that too. If the Flyers developed single cell organisms a billion years ago, they’d still be single cell organisms. But hard to evolve against.

I'd like to watch the Flyers management work together to play Spore

 

[BernieParent]

I'm totally up for a new Disney+ series called Jar Jar starring Vin Diesel.

The Fast and the Starrious: Jar Jar in the Car Car

 

[mja]

The Fast and the Starrious: Jar Jar in the Car Car

"Me no have palos, me have family"

 

[captainpaxil]

I find it extremely frustrating given the two players strengths and development that Cates and Frost aren't stapled together. Let Frost inspire Cates offensively and have Cates hold Frost accountable away from the puck.

 

[deadhead]

I find it extremely frustrating given the two players strengths and development that Cates and Frost aren't stapled together. Let Frost inspire Cates offensively and have Cates hold Frost accountable away from the puck.

All you have to do is find another center. Hey, we have this guy on IR, if he'd just get healthy . . .

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Atkinson was put on IR?

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Atkinson was put on IR?

zombie Ellis broke free again..

rip Atkinson

 

[Rebels57]

Atkinson was put on IR?

Good for the tanking efforts. Keep him and Coots out all season.

 

[BillDineen]

 

[Curufinwe]

Atkinson was put on IR?

Finally, it’s happened to Cam
He is done for the year
And they just cannot hide it

 

[bennysflyers16]

So the single decent guy he’s added via waivers wants the f*** out of this shit hole , tremendous.

 

[Curufinwe]

If this is true, I Assume AA will take his spot.