2022/23 Roster Thread XV: Where Optional Skates are Mandatory

[deadhead]

I don't like Charlie, because he comes off as if he thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. He just kind of seems smug to me...Don't know what it is.

It's his taste in music, champion of obscure emo bands!

I think Charlie gets exasperated with fans, the black or white approach which seems to prevail in sports, politics and just about everything else, at least on the internet. He's the only reporter covering the Flyers who makes extensive use of analytics, but some here don't like him b/c he doesn't agree with them, not because he doesn't do his homework.

I mean would you trust Pronman over Charlie/Appleyard's assessment of our prospects.
Do you trust ASF over Charlie?
And so on. He ain't perfect, but consider the competition. Like Mucus Hayes. Or the Flyer mouthpieces.
The two woman reporters for the Inquirer do more human interest stories than serious analysis or reporting.

 

[Striiker]

I don't like Charlie, because he comes off as if he thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. He just kind of seems smug to me...Don't know what it is.

He thinks he’s better than fans because he’s on the “inside” and he thinks he’s better than the other people on the inside because he knows enough about stats to see their view of the sport is outdated.

Too bad he killed his credibility to shill for the team.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

It's his taste in music, champion of obscure emo bands!

I think Charlie gets exasperated with fans, the black or white approach which seems to prevail in sports, politics and just about everything else, at least on the internet. He's the only reporter covering the Flyers who makes extensive use of analytics, but some here don't like him b/c he doesn't agree with them, not because he doesn't do his homework.

I mean would you trust Pronman over Charlie/Appleyard's assessment of our prospects.
Do you trust ASF over Charlie?
And so on. He ain't perfect, but consider the competition. Like Mucus Hayes. Or the Flyer mouthpieces.
The two woman reporters for the Inquirer do more human interest stories than serious analysis or reporting.

People don't like him because he acts like he's the smartest guy in the room and then goes and uses analytics in incorrect ways in order to frame certain arguments. If he does in fact do his homework properly then he's being disingenuous with some of the things that he spews which some would call that propaganda or even shilling.

I feel like i've seen that type of thing before but I can't quite put my finger on it where.

 

[deadhead]

People don't like him because he acts like he's the smartest guy in the room and then goes and uses analytics in incorrect ways in order to frame certain arguments.

I feel like i've seen that type of thing before but I can't quite put my finger on it where.

Yes, anytime someone disagrees with you.

 

[freakydallas13]

Yes, anytime someone disagrees with you.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Charlie knows what he's doing. He is intentionally lying.

 

[VladDrag]

It's his taste in music, champion of obscure emo bands!

I think Charlie gets exasperated with fans, the black or white approach which seems to prevail in sports, politics and just about everything else, at least on the internet. He's the only reporter covering the Flyers who makes extensive use of analytics, but some here don't like him b/c he doesn't agree with them, not because he doesn't do his homework.

I mean would you trust Pronman over Charlie/Appleyard's assessment of our prospects.
Do you trust ASF over Charlie?
And so on. He ain't perfect, but consider the competition. Like Mucus Hayes. Or the Flyer mouthpieces.
The two woman reporters for the Inquirer do more human interest stories than serious analysis or reporting.

I don't disagree with the overall point. He's better than most, if not all the other beats. However, he knows analytics very well, which is really annoying when he uses them to push a narrative. For example, stating Patrick Brown is the second best defensive player on the team based on the RAPM models. Sure, I buy that, but he's only 12 games played, and that's an amazing omission. I know he knows that, which is the frustrating part. Plus, there's other models by the same group of people that show a different opinion (xGAR). So he clearly uses certain data to paint a picture, but he knows it's not completely accurate.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I don't disagree with the overall point. He's better than most, if not all the other beats. However, he knows analytics very well, which is really annoying when he uses them to push a narrative. For example, stating Patrick Brown is the second best defensive player on the team based on the RAPM models. Sure, I buy that, but he's only 12 games played, and that's an amazing omission. I know he knows that, which is the frustrating part. Plus, there's other models by the same group of people that show a different opinion (xGAR). So he clearly uses certain data to paint a picture, but he knows it's not completely accurate.

doesnt everyone who ever posted stats or graphs...

its a way of saying lookit my big brain

 

[Magua]

I don't disagree with the overall point. He's better than most, if not all the other beats. However, he knows analytics very well, which is really annoying when he uses them to push a narrative. For example, stating Patrick Brown is the second best defensive player on the team based on the RAPM models. Sure, I buy that, but he's only 12 games played, and that's an amazing omission. I know he knows that, which is the frustrating part. Plus, there's other models by the same group of people that show a different opinion (xGAR). So he clearly uses certain data to paint a picture, but he knows it's not completely accurate.

Do those paywall stats also show a pretty hard divide with the fringe players almost all leading the team in defensive stats (minus Cates)? At least since the team has stabilized? They did in xGA/60, and I found it odd how evenly split it was.

 

[Danko]

Fletcher's acquisition are the Gifts that keep on giving!

Pretty sure its due to his Grandfather passing

 

[Ironmanrulez]

He thinks he’s better than fans because he’s on the “inside” and he thinks he’s better than the other people on the inside because he knows enough about stats to see their view of the sport is outdated.

Too bad he killed his credibility to shill for the team.

I think Charlie has a lot more knowledge vs most of the other beats or other Twitter guys.
He nevertheless sometimes spit stupid shit! I think he does that cause he wants to stay a Insider. If he would be too hard against the flyers he is in danger loosing the "inside job".

If he would be the worst of our journalists we would be in heaven. I think Sam or Myrtetus or others are way worse!

I dont want to say i agree mostly with him. But he at least has something to say. Sometimes i like his pov. Sometime i hate it. Sometimes is flyer Propaganda.

But he isnt the worst! In my eyes

 

[VladDrag]

Do those paywall stats also show a pretty hard divide with the fringe players almost all leading the team in defensive stats (minus Cates)? At least since the team has stabilized? They did in xGA/60, and I found it odd how evenly split it was.

I'll look when I get some time and send you a PM. I don't want to put too much paywall stats on the public forum.

 

[deadhead]

The fringe players tend to be better defensively b/c that's the only reason they're even in the NHL.
I mean they don't play due to their shooting and passing skills!
And they also get sheltered to some extent, at least at home, not so much on the road.

 

[Magua]

I don't like Charlie, because he comes off as if he thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. He just kind of seems smug to me...Don't know what it is.

I don't even dislike Charlie, and in many hockey circles he is the smartest guy in the room, but comments like this don't help his case. The end of discussion "so" is as supercilious as it gets. He didn't even answer the offensive part of the equation, the positional part of the question. He just rubber stamps this comment with a "so." Take it or leave it. He likes to proselytize, but I don't find him particularly receptive to debating the nuances.

Yes, Cates has been one of the better defensive forwards so far. Of course, you'll also see peculiarities like known defensive monsters like Huberdeau and Eichel as top 5-10 defensive forwards. But I'm ok with outright calling him a plus defender. But if Cates grades as a 91st percentile defender by the Defensive +/- Charlie uses (among other things), he's a bottom 4th percentile offensive player. (Of course then we might have to bring up Frost being near 70th percentile defensively and Laughton 3rd percentile, and then our clear cut arguments begin to have question marks all over.) For a top 6 center, and de facto 1C now, that is a fair point to bring up -- at 5v5, the 7th fewest shots/60 and 12th worst points/60 in >300 minutes. He hasn't been a victim of linemates or usage.

I remember watching him last year, and beyond the points, he shined offensively as a below goal line F1 and the metrics showed him as a strong contributor at both ends. He's invisible there now shift to shift, and it's legit to wonder if he's having trouble with the offensive end at center on a poor offensive team so

 

[ajgoal]

But if Cates grades as a 91st percentile defender by the Defensive +/- Charlie uses (among other things), he's a bottom 4th percentile offensive player. (Of course then we might have to bring up Frost being near 70th percentile defensively and Laughton 3rd percentile, and then our clear cut arguments begin to have question marks all over.)

I'd love to see a more thorough explanation of what the numbers above are saying, the limitations, etc.

 

[deadhead]

Of course Cates is struggling on offense, playing against top lines with decent but not special linemates (and none are above average playmakers like G) - what would you expect?

Both Cates and Frost are over their heads, but it's a rebuilding year, so it's good experience for them, understanding what it takes to play at the highest level, same with Tippett.

 

[Striiker]

I'd love to see a more thorough explanation of what the numbers above are saying, the limitations, etc.

Then you have to pay money for his shit articles.

 

[Magua]

I'd love to see a more thorough explanation of what the numbers above are saying, the limitations, etc.

As far as I'm aware, those Defensive/Offensive +/- stats on the Athletic cards are just a combo of raw and relative GA/GF and xGA/xGF stats at 5v5, with some relTM bending. It's not as revelatory as you might think as a catch-all, with the inherent limitations of blurring actual and theoretical results. I was just using them because I'm sure Charlie was using them. Cates has been good defensively by pretty much every measure, but the same goes for the other side.

 

[deadhead]

Then you have to pay money for his shit articles.

I don't, the Athletic is free with your NY Times subscription. So is Wirecutter and a few other things.
The Times is going the Amazon, bundle a bunch of value, route.

 

[Magua]

Of course Cates is struggling on offense, playing against top lines with decent but not special linemates (and none are above average playmakers like G) - what would you expect?

So, he's been very good defensively playing against "top lines," but that's why he's been bad offensively? He's also generally been with one or both of the leading scorers, so they're getting theirs. I want to be clear, I don't think Cates sucks offensively. I think he's struggling to balance it, and center demands and skills at offense are drastically different, especially from his core offensive strengths. It speaks volumes that JVR and Cates at LW with Frost/Tippett bring a similar impact. Any top 9 role should be at wing, but we've heard matter of factly the team views him as a center long-term -- assuredly a top 9 one.

"Of course _____ is struggling on offense" just doesn't seem to be the default explanation for other players we throw under the bus.

 

[deadhead]

So, he's been very good defensively playing against "top lines" (which is debatable), but that's why he's been bad offensively? He's also generally been with one or both of the leading scorers, so they're getting theirs. I want to be clear, I don't think Cates sucks offensively. I think he's struggling to balance it, and center demands and skills at offense are drastically different, especially from his core offensive strengths. Any top 9 role should be at wing, but we've heard matter of factly the team views him as a center long-term -- assuredly a top 9 one.

"Of course _____ is struggling on offense" just doesn't seem to be the default explanation for other players we throw under the bus.

Cates has a lot of things working against his offense:
1) switching to center, that is a lot more responsibility at both ends of the ice
2) being the defensive center they want to match against top offensive lines, takes a lot of energy away from your offense
3) coming out of Minn-Duluth, where offense was a rumor and he didn't develop those skills

I can see them keeping him at center in the Pageau type role, the forechecker/defensive specialist who contributes enough offensively to play 3C, and 2C if the team is thin at center. Right now we don't have a 1C or 2C, is Couts every coming back? Will Frost step up enough to fill one of those spots? Is Gauthier's future at center?

Which is why I've advocated a Provorov for young center trade for a year, I'd even throw in sweeteners if we could land a top young center. A top 6 center and a top 4 RHD are the two key needs for this team, fill those holes and the other players would look a lot better.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Cates seems next in line for this organization to massively overrate (because he fits a preferred archetype) for a player who otherwise could be useful with a better filter for what he is & what he is not.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Of course Cates is struggling on offense, playing against top lines with decent but not special linemates (and none are above average playmakers like G) - what would you expect?

Both Cates and Frost are over their heads, but it's a rebuilding year, so it's good experience for them, understanding what it takes to play at the highest level, same with Tippett.

Amazing how these linemates are decent but not special, but Frost should be excelling with lesser linemates per prior arguments.

What an amazing double standard you've constructed to keep defending questionable decisions and usage.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Fascinating that Cates must have oodles of context built up to understand and forgive him for the situation he's in, but everything with Frost is Frost's fault and cannot possibly be the fault of anyone making decisions above him.

 

[deadhead]

Amazing how these linemates are decent but not special, but Frost should be excelling with lesser linemates per prior arguments.

What an amazing double standard you've constructed to keep defending questionable decisions and usage.

You'd hope that Frost is significantly better offensively than a defensive oriented rookie who was switched to center, wouldn't you?
The question with Frost right now is whether he can generate enough offense to be a respectable 3C.
To me, that would be something on the order of 30 ES points a year, or 1.7-1.8 pp/60 at 5x5.
I see nothing that suggests he's a 2C, but players will surprise you.