2022/23 Roster Thread XV: Where Optional Skates are Mandatory

[Pantokrator]

I personally have strong doubts the player is who we see this year moving forward. Just as I do with someone like Hart. Perhaps that a bit of emotion, but I’ve seen too much to not think of nearly all of them as tarnished.

I want nothing to do with an extension that imo will have the Flyers doing what they often do -paying him for his perceived value to the team, instead of what his true value is when compared to his peers who he will have to outplay frequently to make the contract worth it. I think TK is a quality player, but the level of play to be maintained, with a body/style of play that add more risk.

The bigger issue for me, is I want full blown commitment to a bottom out for the next 2-3 seasons. As much as I like Konecny, he’s shown he’s going to hurt their odds the potential of a franchise player.

This thing is a long ass way out imo, something I think the team will ignore in whatever quick “rebuild” they try to pitch.

The Hawks had a chance at re-signing a younger Debrincat, but chose to move on. I want a true fall to the depths. The team we know as the Flyers would ignite in hell fire if they had the gall to even consider such a plan.

The problem is this team refuses to do a real rebuild. I think the fans would tolerate a 3 year total stinkfest if they knew the team was trying to actually tank for top legitimate game changing prospects. I know there is no guarantee that this will make them good (look at Edmonton's, Arizona's, and Buffalo's historic woes) but it is better to have a shot at a legit game changer than float along like Minnesota who perpetually finish 12th -20th and have no real shot at winning the Cup.

We are on year 3 of missing the playoffs. My hope is that once we miss the playoffs for 8 years in a row, the ownership will realize it needs to get rid of all management - including Clarke and Holmgren - and then real positive change can take place.

 

[VladDrag]

Not sure if this was posted, but in terms of tracking data, TK has been one of the best in many categories. I can post his percentile ranks when I get on my computer

Finally on my computer...What I'm posting right now is a few games old, meaning there are two more games that have been tracked, but I didn't do the calculations with those games in the data set.


TK's Shooting Data (Percentile Rank)

Shots/60	Shot Assists/60	Primary Contributions/60	Total Contributions/60	Chances/60	Chance Assists/60	Chance Contribution/60	HD Passes/60	Shots of HD Passes/60	One Timer/60	One Timer Assist/60	Center Lane Assists/60
95%	65%	92%	89%	99%	93%	93%	99%	29%	60%	93%	83%

TK's Entry Data (Percentile Rank)

Entries/60	Carries/60	Carry %	Passing/60	Pass %	Entry Chances/60	Pressures/60	Recoveries/60
98%	89%	52%	49%	26%	91%	60%	89%

and just for shit's and giggles, here's Deslauriers Shooting Data (Percentile Rank)

Shots/60	Shot Assists/60	Primary Contributions/60	Total Contributions/60	Chances/60	Chance Assists/60	Chance Contribution/60	HD Passes/60	Shots of HD Passes/60	One Timer/60	One Timer Assist/60	Center Lane Assists/60
3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Perhaps that a bit of emotion, but I’ve seen too much to not think of nearly all of them as tarnished.

I am in exactly the same boat. The thing is, I don't know that it's the right thing to have in mind when deciding who to keep. As a fan, I'm all in favor of clearing out basically everyone, because they are tainted. I've been trying to wrap my head around who I would keep, but I can never come to a decision. I do know that I would keep Binksy and probably Qatar. I would definitely keep Risto for at least two more seasons, because he isn't doing anything but helping the tank, and if we can manage to offload f***ing Hayes and some other losers, we'll have plenty of cap space to carry him.

One thing I am convinced of is that Provy is a must-deal. Probably get the most for him in the summer, but not sure. I think all of the shit that we shouldn't want, like Laughts, have the best value at the trade deadline when GMs have all the sense of concussed moose in panic mode. What I'd really like is if we were an expansion franchise.

 

[deadhead]

The bigger issue for me, is I want full blown commitment to a bottom out for the next 2-3 seasons. As much as I like Konecny, he’s shown he’s going to hurt their odds the potential of a franchise player.

A full blown commitment to rebuilding doesn't require "clearing the decks."

Rather, a commitment to a long-term vision, moving out players who don't fit, acquiring assets, patiently developing prospects instead of rushing them. Clearing cap room and using it to extend your best young players and acquire assets, not to chase "name" FAs in their late 20s.

If you consistently follow this blueprint, you don't have to make hasty moves and you should be able to turn things around in 3-5 years. If the Flyers add one playmaking center and one top RHD to the current young core, they'd be well on the way to turning this around.

Since your goal is somewhere around 2025 to 2027, you don't have to sacrifice assets to move out Hayes, Risto, Atkinson, etc., you wait until you can clear their cap space at minimum cost. You don't have to rush prospects to the NHL, because you're not trying to win now, so no reason to gnash teeth over Deslauriers. You identify the core young players and extend them so they can be the foundation of the team 3-5 years from now while the younger players you draft gradually work their way into the core (don't ask a 19 year old to carry the team).

 

[blackjackmulligan]

A full blown commitment to rebuilding doesn't require "clearing the decks."

Rather, a commitment to a long-term vision, moving out players who don't fit, acquiring assets, patiently developing prospects instead of rushing them. Clearing cap room and using it to extend your best young players and acquire assets, not to chase "name" FAs in their late 20s.

If you consistently follow this blueprint, you don't have to make hasty moves and you should be able to turn things around in 3-5 years. If the Flyers add one playmaking center and one top RHD to the current young core, they'd be well on the way to turning this around.

Since you're goal is somewhere around 2025 to 2027, you don't have to sacrifice assets to move out Hayes, Risto, Atkinson, etc., you wait until you can clear their cap space at minimum cost. You don't have to rush prospects to the NHL, because you're not trying to win now, so no reason to gnash teeth over Deslauriers. You identify the core young players and extend them so they can be the foundation of the team 3-5 years from now while the younger players you draft gradually work their way into the core (don't ask a 19 year old to carry the team).

Do you see the Flyers following this blue print in any way?

Way easier said then done in bold.

Who is the Flyers young core in your opinion?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Finally on my computer...What I'm posting right now is a few games old, meaning there are two more games that have been tracked, but I didn't do the calculations with those games in the data set.


TK's Shooting Data (Percentile Rank)

Shots/60	Shot Assists/60	Primary Contributions/60	Total Contributions/60	Chances/60	Chance Assists/60	Chance Contribution/60	HD Passes/60	Shots of HD Passes/60	One Timer/60	One Timer Assist/60	Center Lane Assists/60
95%	65%	92%	89%	99%	93%	93%	99%	29%	60%	93%	83%

TK's Entry Data (Percentile Rank)

Entries/60	Carries/60	Carry %	Passing/60	Pass %	Entry Chances/60	Pressures/60	Recoveries/60
98%	89%	52%	49%	26%	91%	60%	89%

and just for shit's and giggles, here's Deslauriers Shooting Data (Percentile Rank)

Shots/60	Shot Assists/60	Primary Contributions/60	Total Contributions/60	Chances/60	Chance Assists/60	Chance Contribution/60	HD Passes/60	Shots of HD Passes/60	One Timer/60	One Timer Assist/60	Center Lane Assists/60
3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

This is excellent

 

[TB87]

Finally on my computer...What I'm posting right now is a few games old, meaning there are two more games that have been tracked, but I didn't do the calculations with those games in the data set.


TK's Shooting Data (Percentile Rank)

Shots/60	Shot Assists/60	Primary Contributions/60	Total Contributions/60	Chances/60	Chance Assists/60	Chance Contribution/60	HD Passes/60	Shots of HD Passes/60	One Timer/60	One Timer Assist/60	Center Lane Assists/60
95%	65%	92%	89%	99%	93%	93%	99%	29%	60%	93%	83%

TK's Entry Data (Percentile Rank)

Entries/60	Carries/60	Carry %	Passing/60	Pass %	Entry Chances/60	Pressures/60	Recoveries/60
98%	89%	52%	49%	26%	91%	60%	89%

and just for shit's and giggles, here's Deslauriers Shooting Data (Percentile Rank)

Shots/60	Shot Assists/60	Primary Contributions/60	Total Contributions/60	Chances/60	Chance Assists/60	Chance Contribution/60	HD Passes/60	Shots of HD Passes/60	One Timer/60	One Timer Assist/60	Center Lane Assists/60
3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

TK = very good

Deslauriers is basically a trash can on skates at the NHL level. Jiminy Christmas.

 

[renberg]

One thing I am convinced of is that Provy is a must-deal. Probably get the most for him in the summer, but not sure.

With the need that the "contenders" have on the back end right now, it seems like moving Provorov ASAP could bring the best haul. Waiting until the summer is fine except that it is a deal in preparation for the next season. Teams get a shot at the SC only ever so often. They need to step up when that happens. Now would be the time for Toronto, Edmonton, or any such club to get Provorov.

 

[ajgoal]

Flyers have an opportunity to fall below the Sharks, albeit with a game in hand, if they lose to them tomorrow night. Arizona passed them last night and has two games in hand.

In about four weeks since Chuck said, "I expect to be more competitive," they have gone from 5 points out of a wildcard spot to 14. 7 points from last in the East and 9 from last overall, with the halfway point six games away.

Great success. Much praise.

 

[kudymen]

. If the Flyers add one playmaking center and one top RHD to the current young core, they'd be well on the way to turning this around.

And the best they could land over the past few years was Hayes, Ristolainen and DeAngelo.

 

[deadhead]

To move Provorov to Toronto, we'd probably have to take Muzzin back (one more year at $5.625M to clear room for next season for Toronto. They not only have to clear cap room this season, but also next season to fit Provorov in.

That's why trading multi-year contracts is more complicated to pull off at the TDL, teams don't want to trade current assets that can help them win now, but also don't want to go into the summer over the cap, even if they can clear room this year with LTIR and salary retained.

 

[kudymen]

and just for shit's and giggles, here's Deslauriers Shooting Data (Percentile Rank)

Shots/60	Shot Assists/60	Primary Contributions/60	Total Contributions/60	Chances/60	Chance Assists/60	Chance Contribution/60	HD Passes/60	Shots of HD Passes/60	One Timer/60	One Timer Assist/60	Center Lane Assists/60
3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Some people are hard to play against. (tm)
Some people are hard to play with.

 

[Shrike]

Are we sure our medical staff was examining the correct area of Hart’s body?

Wasn’t Atkinson skating shortly before his diagnosis was changed to season ending?

How can we trust anything with this organization?

How does Fletcher still have a job?

Sorry to bump my own post

 

[renberg]

To move Provorov to Toronto, we'd probably have to take Muzzin back (one more year at $5.625M to clear room for next season for Toronto. They not only have to clear cap room this season, but also next season to fit Provorov in.

That's why trading multi-year contracts is more complicated to pull off at the TDL, teams don't want to trade current assets that can help them win now, but also don't want to go into the summer over the cap, even if they can clear room this year with LTIR and salary retained.

It can be more difficult to make deals now but a team such as Toronto is up against the wall with needs on defense. They're going to have to pay in order to get. This is where clearing out JVR could give the Flyers some cap space to be creative. A sharp GM would be able to hustle them. I guess that that eliminates the Flyers.

 

[VladDrag]

Was this posted?

Was this posted?

…sorry if this is somewhere else

 

[FlyerNutter]

Was this posted?

Great news.

 

[Curufinwe]

Charlie said he can’t play on the 29th because IR lasts at least a week, but he could play on the 31st

 

[Adam Warlock]

You have to see what happens this summer before deciding anything like that.

How did the draft lottery go?

What kind of prospect did we get?

Were there changes to the management?

What did we get for the guys who should be moved first?

What’s our best guess for when we can compete (based on all the above) and how does that line up with TKs age?

Well Anthony Dimarco said we are for sure getting a player in the top 10 that will be our first line center next year. But hes not a "prospect" guy ... cant be bothered to actually research and you know... actually do his job.

 

[deadhead]

Who is the Flyers young core in your opinion?

TK (25), Farabee (22), Frost (23), Cates (23), Tippett (23), Sanheim (26), York (22) on the current team.
Hart (24), Ersson (23)
We'll see which LHV players, as well as Andrae and Gauthier, pan out.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Funnily enough, Konecny's 5v5 scoring is lower than last season. But it's pretty much right in line with every season of his career. If anything, he's been unlucky. At all strengths, he has 2 secondary assists compared to 30 primary points. There's really no one to credit his success this season other than himself. Getting consistent PK time, along with first dib minutes elsewhere, has helped too.

Konecny is a solid top 6 player. He is certainly not hurting their tanking chances; this team sucks ass. Ask Gaudreau how much Columbus is soaring with him. Colorado was historically bad with MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Duchene! The Flyers could be one of the 3 worst teams in the league every season and not touch a top 2 or 3 pick. That's the lottery.

I'm not saying Konecny is remotely untouchable; I'm just saying a deadline deal is just not in the cards, and I'd be careful about a summer '23 one as well. I don't believe his value would change much in '24, but there'd be more information to work with. I also imagine DeBrincat had higher value than Konecny; I imagine his contract ask started at $9MM given his QO; and I imagine him needing that contract THIS summer had a lot to do with it. I think Chicago is in a worse situation period with their talent. Like it or not, Couturier will eventually be back, maybe alive. I don't want shortcuts either, but not all rebuilds are identical.

I think even last season we saw first hand though what a couple more losses could mean for draft position. We will likely see the same this year.

I'll say I do think Konecny with his level of production this season, and going forward - does impact that draft position. It's just a trend I see with this team, too unwilling to move their limited quality pieces, and commit to a true depth charge.

We see it with extension for Couturier, Sanheim, and what I am sure is the thought that TK is an untouchable piece to this core, along with Hart. We saw it with retention of the prior core, and we are prime to do it again.

This team is close to being in the running for top 3 picks, and with the liquation of someone like Konecny it helps further cement that path. On a team that's by design going to ride low scoring games, getting rid of one of the few guys that can positively influence the game offensively is a move I strongly consider. I don't trust TK's body on the next contract, and I don't want to be the team paying it.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

TK (25), Farabee (22), Frost (23), Cates (23), Tippett (23), Sanheim (26), York (22) on the current team.
Hart (24), Ersson (23)
We'll see which LHV players, as well as Andrae and Gauthier, pan out.

What exactly is there to get excited about with that core?

Also guys like Cates Tippet and Frost are not core players at this point in time. Maybe in the next year or 2 possibly.

Ersson is a core player?

 

[deadhead]

Goalie is solid up and down the line. That's a huge plus. Fedotov could play in the NHL right now if he can get out of the Gulag.

To me, core is you're top 9/top 4/goalies, even top teams tend to patch their way through the 4th line/3rd pair.
Usually, good teams only have 2 scoring lines and a solid 3rd line that can hold its own, and 3-4 solid D-men who can play against top skill people.
And that top six usually has a couple veterans to go along with a core group of young players.
Same with the top four on defense.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Goalie is solid up and down the line. That's a huge plus. Fedotov could play in the NHL right now if he can get out of the Gulag.

To me, core is you're top 9/top 4/goalies, even top teams tend to patch their way through the 4th line/3rd pair.
Usually, good teams only have 2 scoring lines and a solid 3rd line that can hold its own, and 3-4 solid D-men who can play against top skill people.
And that top six usually has a couple veterans to go along with a core group of young players.
Same with the top four on defense.

It is pointless to mention Fedotov at this juncture.

Core to me doe s not include your top 9 or top 4. 13 players out of 18 is not a core. Core are guys you want to build around. Your top end players. At least to me.

Then by your definition Risto is a core player.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Send Provy to Oilers, 1st rd pick, prospect and whatever cap dump needed.

 

[Beef Invictus]

To move Provorov to Toronto, we'd probably have to take Muzzin back (one more year at $5.625M to clear room for next season for Toronto. They not only have to clear cap room this season, but also next season to fit Provorov in.

That's why trading multi-year contracts is more complicated to pull off at the TDL, teams don't want to trade current assets that can help them win now, but also don't want to go into the summer over the cap, even if they can clear room this year with LTIR and salary retained.

One year of Muzzin isn't a problem. This team is going nowhere for a decade. Fletcher losing the trade will be the problem.