2022/23 Roster Thread XIX: 19th Nervous Breakdown

[VladDrag]

Here is my (sincere) question, which has nothing whatsoever to do with that post lol.

When someone who understands and trusts analytics looks at Owen Tippett's numbers/charts, what does he see? Is that someone you trade ASAP to cash in on the production that comes with fairly huge TOI?

Without reading Jojo’s response and someone who enjoys analytics and has watched ~60-80% of the games this year here is my take in Tippett.

My eyes tell me he’s a highly athletic, high motor guy. Works very hard on and off the puck. Volume shooter, will shoot from about anywhere. Doesn’t do a ton to help once the puck is in the zone, but so good at gaining entries and getting scoring chances off of those entries. He doesn’t find many soft spots in the defense, either. So he rushes in the zone, gets a chance or creates for someone else and then he’s quiet once the puck is in the zone.

In terms of his analytical profile, he’s a product of lots of production right now. His actual results are better than his expected, depending on the model you look at. So that could mean two things, 1) he’s better than this model, or 2) he might be due for a regression. It should be noted that some players are just always going to out-produce the model, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Generating chances off the rush, which is where he has been very good, is so important in the modern game. His inability to generate off the cycle is what will limit him from taking a other step forward.

I worry a little bit that there might be a regression of production. I don’t think he’s going to fall off a cliff or anything. But if he can get better in the cycle game, and learn how to generate off the cycle, it’s also possible he actually steps up in performance… obviously that’s a lot harder to learn how to do, and there isn’t really anything in his history that would suggest he can unlock that ability.

I personally would explore a trade, but it doesn’t have to happen right now. If he is the same player next season, I think a trade at the deadline next year might garner some serious attention. The acquiring team would hold his RFA rights after the next season.

 

[Beef Invictus]

This looks pretty good. The name that came to mind was Matt Read. He’s not been quite as good as Year 1/2 Read was, but he’s one click down from it. That’s a nice piece, even if he’s of typical peak age. With those guys, it depends on what the contract is to me. I’m happy to pay them moderate amounts and term, but not break the bank.

He’s also more dependent on finishing advantage than Read was. If he wasn’t a Flyer, I would approach him the same way I did Trocheck. I want someone else to trade the premium picks for him, wait for the down shooting year, pick him up for a song, and not give him the UFA deal. But signing him to one of reasonable length is fine too, provided you have the foresight to know when you should and shouldn’t trade them later.

This is a guy we should be selling high on.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Without reading Jojo’s response and someone who enjoys analytics and has watched ~60-80% of the games this year here is my take in Tippett.

My eyes tell me he’s a highly athletic, high motor guy. Works very hard on and off the puck. Volume shooter, will shoot from about anywhere. Doesn’t do a ton to help once the puck is in the zone, but so good at gaining entries and getting scoring chances off of those entries. He doesn’t find many soft spots in the defense, either. So he rushes in the zone, gets a chance or creates for someone else and then he’s quiet once the puck is in the zone.

In terms of his analytical profile, he’s a product of lots of production right now. His actual results are better than his expected, depending on the model you look at. So that could mean two things, 1) he’s better than this model, or 2) he might be due for a regression. It should be noted that some players are just always going to out-produce the model, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Generating chances off the rush, which is where he has been very good, is so important in the modern game. His inability to generate off the cycle is what will limit him from taking a other step forward.

I worry a little bit that there might be a regression of production. I don’t think he’s going to fall off a cliff or anything. But if he can get better in the cycle game, and learn how to generate off the cycle, it’s also possible he actually steps up in performance… obviously that’s a lot harder to learn how to do, and there isn’t really anything in his history that would suggest he can unlock that ability.

I personally would explore a trade, but it doesn’t have to happen right now. If he is the same player next season, I think a trade at the deadline next year might garner some serious attention. The acquiring team would hold his RFA rights after the next season.

Last I checked his shooting percentage is wayyyy up this year. Unsustainably up. Unsure if that's still the case. Very sure the Flyers don't understand this.

 

[VladDrag]

Last I checked his shooting percentage is wayyyy up this year. Unsustainably up. Unsure if that's still the case. Very sure the Flyers don't understand this.

His sh% is around 10.3 and his on ice is around 8.8%. Both of those are high, but in the acceptable, and potentially repeatable ranges.

This is his 5v5 shot map. The yellow are goals, reds are missed nets. The bigger the diamond the higher the individual expected goal is for that shot.

He has a few goals from way outside of scoring areas that probably don’t go in under normal conditions. He’s not a particularly accurate shooter. I mean, look at all of the red from right infront of the goal. So if he can get a bit better with his accuracy, and convert a few of those missed chances, he’s got a chance to sustain his sh%. He gets to good areas to score quite often.

 

[Beef Invictus]

His sh% is around 10.3 and his on ice is around 8.8%. Both of those are high, but in the acceptable, and potentially repeatable ranges.

This is his 5v5 shot map. The yellow are goals, reds are missed nets. The bigger the diamond the higher the individual expected goal is for that shot.

He has a few goals from way outside of scoring areas that probably don’t go in under normal conditions. He’s not a particularly accurate shooter. I mean, look at all of the red from right infront of the goal. So if he can get a bit better with his accuracy, and convert a few of those missed chances, he’s got a chance to sustain his sh%. He gets to good areas to score quite often.

Alright, he has already regressed a good amount on that front so what we are seeing now should be more normal. That's encouraging.

Sell high. Don't core him.

 

[deadhead]

His sh% is around 10.3 and his on ice is around 8.8%. Both of those are high, but in the acceptable, and potentially repeatable ranges.

This is his 5v5 shot map. The yellow are goals, reds are missed nets. The bigger the diamond the higher the individual expected goal is for that shot.

He has a few goals from way outside of scoring areas that probably don’t go in under normal conditions. He’s not a particularly accurate shooter. I mean, look at all of the red from right infront of the goal. So if he can get a bit better with his accuracy, and convert a few of those missed chances, he’s got a chance to sustain his sh%. He gets to good areas to score quite often.

He's got a quick release and good velocity on his wrist shot, like you point out, improve his accuracy and he'll be a reliable scorer. Sometimes that's just a matter of experience, players stop rushing shots and hit their targets more often.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Without reading Jojo’s response and someone who enjoys analytics and has watched ~60-80% of the games this year here is my take in Tippett.

My eyes tell me he’s a highly athletic, high motor guy. Works very hard on and off the puck. Volume shooter, will shoot from about anywhere. Doesn’t do a ton to help once the puck is in the zone, but so good at gaining entries and getting scoring chances off of those entries. He doesn’t find many soft spots in the defense, either. So he rushes in the zone, gets a chance or creates for someone else and then he’s quiet once the puck is in the zone.

In terms of his analytical profile, he’s a product of lots of production right now. His actual results are better than his expected, depending on the model you look at. So that could mean two things, 1) he’s better than this model, or 2) he might be due for a regression. It should be noted that some players are just always going to out-produce the model, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Generating chances off the rush, which is where he has been very good, is so important in the modern game. His inability to generate off the cycle is what will limit him from taking a other step forward.

I worry a little bit that there might be a regression of production. I don’t think he’s going to fall off a cliff or anything. But if he can get better in the cycle game, and learn how to generate off the cycle, it’s also possible he actually steps up in performance… obviously that’s a lot harder to learn how to do, and there isn’t really anything in his history that would suggest he can unlock that ability.

I personally would explore a trade, but it doesn’t have to happen right now. If he is the same player next season, I think a trade at the deadline next year might garner some serious attention. The acquiring team would hold his RFA rights after the next season.

I just don't like him at all - I have made no secret of that, I think - and just intuitively, I would be surprised if he kept up this production. But I appreciate the analytics (which I am hopeless at) - that's the kind of info I have been wondering about.

He's got a quick release and good velocity on his wrist shot, like you point out, improve his accuracy and he'll be a reliable scorer. Sometimes that's just a matter of experience, players stop rushing shots and hit their targets more often.

I guess it's possible, but I'd be pretty surprised to see someone suddenly become an accurate shooter at 24 or 25. Plus he's just so f***ing gross, seriously.

 

[Striiker]

Works very hard on and off the puck. Volume shooter, will shoot from about anywhere. Doesn’t do a ton to help once the puck is in the zone

 

[Striiker]

You know what’s kinda funny and depressing at the same time?

From the day of the trade until both are retired, Giroux might still outproduce Tippett.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Just to be clear, the Read mention was pure production and metrics. Not style. Not attributes. I was asked to look at numbers. That's the limit of the scope of what I did.

A Flyer was chosen because he was a recent name most still remember well. Although I'm thinking his first two years may be a little underrated now.

 

[Striiker]

@JojoTheWhale im gonna scream

 

[JojoTheWhale]

@JojoTheWhale im gonna scream

You're going to make me rant about Goalie evaluations, aren't you?

 

[Striiker]

You're going to make me rant about Goalie evaluations, aren't you?

 

[DancingPanther]

Alright, he has already regressed a good amount on that front so what we are seeing now should be more normal. That's encouraging.

Sell high. Don't core him.

This team doesn't have a core. Trade them all

 

[DancingPanther]

I was asked to look at numbers. That's the limit of the scope of what I did.

Classic Jojo doing the bare minimum

 

[Beef Invictus]

This team doesn't have a core. Trade them all

They think they do

 

[renberg]

@JojoTheWhale im gonna scream

It all depends on how good Ersson is. If he is what some think him to be-Hart's equal or better- then Hart is available for the right offer. Who knows, this could be a repeat of the Favell/Parent situation early on in Flyers history? It's just that if you make that move, it has to be a hit both in the return and what Ersson is. Which raises the question as to does anyone really know how good Ersson is?

 

[Striiker]

It all depends on how good Ersson is. If he is what some think him to be-Hart's equal or better- then Hart is available for the right offer. Who knows, this could be a repeat of the Favell/Parent situation early on in Flyers history? It's just that if you make that move, it has to be a hit both in the return and what Ersson is. Which raises the question as to does anyone really know how good Ersson is?

It doesn’t even matter how good Ersson is.

1) were likely not contending until past Harts prime and he’ll need a new contract soon.

2) Hart is not untouchable, even if we were a contender. No goalie is.

 

[Rich Nixon]

I now want them to trade Hart more for the following two reasons than for the fact that it makes sense to trade him in a rebuild (which it does):

1. I don't trust Hart's face or personality at all; he skeeves me out; he might be a serial killer.

2. I want to see all the whiny bitchmade know-nothings lose their shit over it.

On point 1, look at a photograph of Ersson. Then look at a photograph of Hart. One of those men can grow facial hair. The other could keep pieces of your thigh in a freezer for years to occasionally cook for special occasions.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Hart on that Chuck Fletcher 3 year bridge deal special too where you pretty much have to decide if you are going to extend him long term, trade him, or just let him walk to free agency after the year. He was so savvy.

 

[Striiker]

2. I want to see all the whiny bitchmade know-nothings lose their shit over it.

But I just said I’m actually in favor of it so…

 

[Cody Webster]

Good thing we're giving Ersson plenty of starts in a meaningless season to see how good he actually is...

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I guess i'll put this here?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Flyers will draft him in the 6th round instead of the 5th now.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Flyers will draft him in the 6th round instead of the 5th now.