2022/23 Roster Thread XIX: 19th Nervous Breakdown

[Beef Invictus]

2017 poll

1. Patrick, Nolan ~ C - 98% - injuries
2. Sanheim, Travis ~ LHD - 74%
3. Lindblom, Oskar ~ LW/RW - 64% - cancer
4. Myers, Phil ~ RHD - 80%
5. Rubtsov, German ~ C/W - 53%
6. Morin, Sam ~ LHD - 78%
7. Frost, Morgan ~ C/LW - 50%
8. Allison, Wade ~ RW - 35%
9. Hagg, Robert ~ LHD - 38%
10. Vorobyev, Mikhail ~ C - 51%
11. Ratcliffe, Isaac ~ LW - 51%
12. Laczynski, Tanner ~ C - 37%
13. Friedman, Mark ~ RHD - 42%
14. Laberge, Pascal ~ C/RW - 69% - injuries
15. Aube-Kubel, Nicolas ~ RW/LW - 38%
16. Bunnaman, Connor ~ C/LW - 41%
17. Hogberg, Linus ~ LHD - 33%
18. Strome, Matthew ~ LW - 44%
19. Kase, David ~ W/C - 33%
20. Vecchione, Mike ~ C - 42%
21. Cates, Noah ~ LW - 48%
22. Bernhardt, David ~ LHD - 52%
23. Leier, Taylor ~ LW - 42%
24. Marody, Cooper ~ C - 30%
25. Lycksell, Olle ~ C - 38%
26. Martel, Danick ~ LW/RW - 32%
27. Sushko, Maxim ~ RW - 52%


Amorosa, Terrance ~ LHD
Bardreau, Cole ~ C
Drake, David ~ LHD
Fazleev, Radel ~ C
Goulbourne, Tyrell ~ LW
Kalynuk, Wyatt ~ LHD
Salinitri, Anthony ~ C
Twarynski, Carson ~ LW
Warren, Brendan ~ LW
Willcox, Reece ~ RHD

And how did you vote?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Sanheim is more of a disappointment than Can't Miss Best Defenseman Not In The NHL Provorov now. FOH

 

[freakydallas13]

2017 poll

1. Patrick, Nolan ~ C - 98% - injuries
2. Sanheim, Travis ~ LHD - 74%
3. Lindblom, Oskar ~ LW/RW - 64% - cancer
4. Myers, Phil ~ RHD - 80%
5. Rubtsov, German ~ C/W - 53%
6. Morin, Sam ~ LHD - 78%
7. Frost, Morgan ~ C/LW - 50%
8. Allison, Wade ~ RW - 35%
9. Hagg, Robert ~ LHD - 38%
10. Vorobyev, Mikhail ~ C - 51%
11. Ratcliffe, Isaac ~ LW - 51%
12. Laczynski, Tanner ~ C - 37%
13. Friedman, Mark ~ RHD - 42%
14. Laberge, Pascal ~ C/RW - 69% - injuries
15. Aube-Kubel, Nicolas ~ RW/LW - 38%
16. Bunnaman, Connor ~ C/LW - 41%
17. Hogberg, Linus ~ LHD - 33%
18. Strome, Matthew ~ LW - 44%
19. Kase, David ~ W/C - 33%
20. Vecchione, Mike ~ C - 42%
21. Cates, Noah ~ LW - 48%
22. Bernhardt, David ~ LHD - 52%
23. Leier, Taylor ~ LW - 42%
24. Marody, Cooper ~ C - 30%
25. Lycksell, Olle ~ C - 38%
26. Martel, Danick ~ LW/RW - 32%
27. Sushko, Maxim ~ RW - 52%


Amorosa, Terrance ~ LHD
Bardreau, Cole ~ C
Drake, David ~ LHD
Fazleev, Radel ~ C
Goulbourne, Tyrell ~ LW
Kalynuk, Wyatt ~ LHD
Salinitri, Anthony ~ C
Twarynski, Carson ~ LW
Warren, Brendan ~ LW
Willcox, Reece ~ RHD

And this is proof of.....what exactly?

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Sanheim is more of a disappointment than Can't Miss Best Defenseman Not In The NHL Provorov now. FOH

Here is my (sincere) question, which has nothing whatsoever to do with that post lol.

When someone who understands and trusts analytics looks at Owen Tippett's numbers/charts, what does he see? Is that someone you trade ASAP to cash in on the production that comes with fairly huge TOI?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Here is my (sincere) question, which has nothing whatsoever to do with that post lol.

When someone who understands and trusts analytics looks at Owen Tippett's numbers/charts, what does he see? Is that someone you trade ASAP to cash in on the production that comes with fairly huge TOI?

Give me a day to dig into this, please. You want a real opinion and I simply haven’t cared enough to develop one.

 

[deadhead]

Flyers average 3.19 GF/60 with Frost and Tippett on the ice 5x5, without those two 2.11.
Since Tippett has better metrics without Frost, than Frost without Tippett, it's not simply a matter of Frost making Tippett look good.
The two seem to have good chemistry, and are potentially part of a solid second line down the road.

Given that both are starting on a regular basis for the first time in their careers, and are 23, I see no reason to trade either unless "someone makes an offer you can't refuse."

It's unlikely you'll draft a player as good as Tippett outside the top 15 picks.
So it would have to have the value of a top 15 pick for me to pull the trigger.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Flyers average 3.19 GF/60 with Frost and Tippett on the ice 5x5, without those two 2.11.
Since Tippett has better metrics without Frost, than Frost without Tippett, it's not simply a matter of Frost making Tippett look good.
The two seem to have good chemistry, and are potentially part of a solid second line down the road.

Given that both are starting on a regular basis for the first time in their careers, and are 23, I see no reason to trade either unless "someone makes an offer you can't refuse."

It's unlikely you'll draft a player as good as Tippett outside the top 15 picks.
So it would have to have the value of a top 15 pick for me to pull the trigger.

He's so f***ing repugnant to look at, though. He's got no soul!

 

[deadhead]

He's so f***ing repugnant to look at, though. He's got no soul!

It's not a beauty contest, I'll take the winner of the ugly man competition if the SOB can score goals!

 

[Lindberg]

Flyers average 3.19 GF/60 with Frost and Tippett on the ice 5x5, without those two 2.11.
Since Tippett has better metrics without Frost, than Frost without Tippett, it's not simply a matter of Frost making Tippett look good.
The two seem to have good chemistry, and are potentially part of a solid second line down the road.

Given that both are starting on a regular basis for the first time in their careers, and are 23, I see no reason to trade either unless "someone makes an offer you can't refuse."

It's unlikely you'll draft a player as good as Tippett outside the top 15 picks.
So it would have to have the value of a top 15 pick for me to pull the trigger.

Tippett has been getting a significant amount of TOI. That isn't going to happen on a real team.

 

[Starat327]

Sanheim is more of a disappointment than Can't Miss Best Defenseman Not In The NHL Provorov now. FOH

I cant see it, but I also know you're not the type to make this shit up.

The takes honestly get worse day by day.

 

[Lindberg]

I cant see it, but I also know you're not the type to make this shit up.

The takes honestly get worse day by day.

I believe the Provorov tag Jojo mentioned is what all the scouts/talking heads were saying at some point. I could be wrong though but that is what my memory is saying.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Tippett has been getting a significant amount of TOI. That isn't going to happen on a real team.

ummm hes a staple... Torts isnt letting his pet rock go.

 

[Striiker]

I cant see it, but I also know you're not the type to make this shit up.

The takes honestly get worse day by day.

Well he said Ghost is just a “useful” player so his takes are just as scalding hot as the others.

 

[Starat327]

I believe the Provorov tag Jojo mentioned is what all the scouts/talking heads were saying at some point. I could be wrong though but that is what my memory is saying.

I recall those. I'm talking about making up the ides thay Sanheim has failed more compared to the golden boy who has been given the keys to the organization but still failed to open the door.

Well he said Ghost is just a “useful” player so his takes are just as scalding hot as the others.

I can't tell which is more genuine. "3rd pair pp specialist" or "useful".

 

[Striiker]

I can't tell which is more genuine. "3rd pair pp specialist" or "useful".

Both are unacceptable ways to describe the best defensemen in team history.

 

[Starat327]

Both are unacceptable ways to describe the best defensemen in team history.

....OK, ease up a touch.

 

[deadhead]

Tippett has been getting a significant amount of TOI. That isn't going to happen on a real team.

pp/60 (5x5), min 600 minutes [last 40 games, when lines were set]
median 1st line (48), median 2nd line (144), median 3rd line (240)
TK 2.31 (45) [2.19 (64)]
Hayes 1.86 (127) [1.45 (192)]
Farabee 1.78 (140) [1.27 (217)]
Tippett 1.74 (147) [1.82 (124)]
JVR [1.65 (147)]
Frost 1.57 (187) [1.93 (106)]
Cates 1.31 (242) [1.54 (167)]
Laughton 1.13 (266) [1.27 (216)]
Deslauriers 0.98 (281)

Cates, Tippett, Frost all significantly improved
Hayes fell off at LW
Farabee looks like he wore down, maybe they should shut him down at some point

 

[Lindberg]

pp/60 (5x5), min 600 minutes [last 40 games, when lines were set]
median 1st line (48), median 2nd line (144), median 3rd line (240)
TK 2.31 (45) [2.19 (64)]
Hayes 1.86 (127) [1.45 (192)]
Farabee 1.78 (140) [1.27 (217)]
Tippett 1.74 (147) [1.82 (124)]
JVR [1.65 (147)]
Frost 1.57 (187) [1.93 (106)]
Cates 1.31 (242) [1.54 (167)]
Laughton 1.13 (266) [1.27 (216)]
Deslauriers 0.98 (281)

Cates, Tippett, Frost all significantly improved
Hayes fell off at LW
Farabee looks like he wore down, maybe they should shut him down at some point

This reeks of bad analysis.

Who are Tippett's line mates, defense men out on ice, zone starts, quality of competition.... those factors and more all play a part of someone's success or detriment. I'm rooting for Tippett to be a success story because that adds a lot more value back to the Giroux trade unintentionally.

Couturier exploded offensively when he wasn't chained to being a 3rd defensemen.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Lines aren't set. They shift a lot. I don't get the "The lines were set on December 7" narrative. It isn't true.

 

[deadhead]

This reeks of bad analysis.

Who are Tippett's line mates, defense men out on ice, zone starts, quality of competition.... those factors and more all play a part of someone's success or detriment. I'm rooting for Tippett to be a success story because that adds a lot more value back to the Giroux trade unintentionally.

Couturier exploded offensively when he wasn't chained to being a 3rd defensemen.

Tippett has played mostly with Frost, with JVR at LW.
Farabee with Cates and TK.
Laughton with Hayes and Alison.

This changed the last couple weeks with TK out.
Hayes moved back to center, I think b/c he's struggled to score at LW and they want to showcase him for the summer.
Cates has been centering an energy line with Laughton and Lemieux.
Farabee was moved to the Frost line in an attempt to jump start him.

 

[Tripod]

Or maybe Hayes has just regressed back to his norm and the last 8 years are proof of what he really is.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

Dead is right.

The Flyers had a top 3 prospect group by EVERY credible grading website/group/publication for MULTIPLE YEARS.

Everyone was wrong. Has nothing to do with the Flyers development of those top prospects groups. So what if they were rated great before the Flyers got their grubby hands on them. Everyone was wrong. The Flyers developed them just great.

Get a couple of Giroux's and others will look better. What a concept.

I haven't read one of his posts in years (well not with my eyes but people respond to him so much he might as well be my best friend) but I'm sure this statement is false

 

[Beef Invictus]

So you want to ignore how the Flyers even depth prospects were doing well enough in those seasons to be on WJC teams....or even play great at the WJC against age level peers, but we could not develop them even into even useful NHLers?

Cool.

You are right. Every publication was wrong. We developed them all to the best of the players ability.

Nah those are the only prospects. Pay no mind to everyone else that he praised as the second coming.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Here is my (sincere) question, which has nothing whatsoever to do with that post lol.

When someone who understands and trusts analytics looks at Owen Tippett's numbers/charts, what does he see? Is that someone you trade ASAP to cash in on the production that comes with fairly huge TOI?

This looks pretty good. The name that came to mind was Matt Read. He’s not been quite as good as Year 1/2 Read was, but he’s one click down from it. That’s a nice piece, even if he’s of typical peak age. With those guys, it depends on what the contract is to me. I’m happy to pay them moderate amounts and term, but not break the bank.

He’s also more dependent on finishing advantage than Read was. If he wasn’t a Flyer, I would approach him the same way I did Trocheck. I want someone else to trade the premium picks for him, wait for the down shooting year, pick him up for a song, and not give him the UFA deal. But signing him to one of reasonable length is fine too, provided you have the foresight to know when you should and shouldn’t trade them later.

 

[deadhead]

Tippett is far more physically gifted than Read, who was a good skater but on the smaller side, 5'10 188, so a bit of a tweener, not skilled enough to be a top flight smurf, not big enough to be a physical presence.

Read was a prototypical late bloomer as well.
Read was a 21 year old college freshman who stayed four seasons (talk about marinating a player).
Read had 3 good seasons from 25-27, predicated on a Sh% of 15%.
The next three seasons his Sh% fell to about 8%, and he scored 29 goals in 222 games.

Tippett has a SH% of 10.2%, which is pretty sustainable for a top shooter.
He has size and great speed, as fast or faster than Frost and TK, and a plus wrist shot.
He has improved as the season has progressed, don't know what his upside is yet, but a rebuilding team should keep playing him until he flatlines.

I'd say Kasperi Kapanen is a closer parallel for the downside, starter at 22 who scored 20 goals, then 13, 11, 11 and 9 this year.
TK might be similar for the upside in terms of style, fast, a bit straight line with a good shot.

So Tippett could take it up a tier or be a guy who frustrate the hell out of you.