Speculation: 2022-23 Roster Thread Part II

[FiveHoleTickler]

I can see Zellweger being ready as well. If Drysdale can play, Zellweger certainly can as well. He's not far off.

No interest in rushing him in what looks like another tough season, but I think he will see his first NHL games next year.

He would have to really force the issue. Verbeek didn't let him stay in training camp very long and I suspect would not want to rush him next season.

Maybe if injuries pile up he gets a call-up if and only if he's dominating in San Diego. It's easy to get excited about the player, but I'd be shocked if he didn't spend all of next season in the A.

 

[Leonardo87]

He would have to really force the issue. Verbeek didn't let him stay in training camp very long and I suspect would not want to rush him next season.

Maybe if injuries pile up he gets a call-up if and only if he's dominating in San Diego. It's easy to get excited about the player, but I'd be shocked if he didn't spend all of next season in the A.

They really need to fix SD also. I don't watch the games, is it the roster, coaching, combination of both?

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

They really need to fix SD also. I don't watch the games, is it the roster, coaching, combination of both?

I don't watch either, but when things are as bad as they are in SD it's almost never one thing. Sort of feels like a wasted year down there for a lot of our prospects, unfortunately.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I’d run the numbers on the PK but I know that‘s your thing, but believe they are over 80% since mid Dec. If not for that putrid start would actually be middle of the pack in the league, maybe slightly better.

​

Ducks​	2022-23​	PK​	​	​	​	​
Game Set​	Games​	PK GA​	TSH​	PK eff​	​	PK GA/game​
Gm 1-50​	50​	48​	174​	72.4%​	​	0.96​
Gm 1-25​	25​	31​	89​	65.2%​	​	1.24​
Gm 26-50​	25​	17​	85​	80.0%​	​	0.68​

Before the last game, we were 72.0% PK efficiency in game set 41-49.

Our PK had to evolve because we lost three regulars at the TDL in D Lindholm, D Manson, and LW Des. Then factor in Lundy was not playing well at all. That mean we are missing four regulars from last season.

Benoit became a regular on the PK when Drysdale fell to injury. Benoit was a healthy scratch in the opener against Seattle (PK: 2/5), Gm 3 vs NYR (PK: 1/4), and Gm 5 vs Boston (PK:2/4). That's a total of 9 PK goal against with Benoit a healthy scratch because we were rotating D-men to start the season.

Rico didn't become a staple on the PK until game 16 vs Detroit. I have no idea when Vatrano became a regular on the PK. Megna was acquired on Dec 6, which means his first game was game 28 vs SJ, where the PK unit went 3/4.

We lost both Drysdale and Grant early in the season and both were part of the PK team.

Rico brought a lot of stability at the PK with his FO wins since Grant fell to injury. Vatrano and Megna brought speed, but Megna also can win FO's. Benoit getting consistent play time once Beaulieu and Drysdale fell to injury. Recently, we got Dynamic Lundy back. The only constants on PK between the two seasons are Silf and Shattenkirk.

I give a lot of credit to asst coach Stothers on evolving the PK unit roster as well as PV for acquiring Megna on waivers. Yet, PV is the blame for the lack of defensive talent to start the season. The PK unit scratches and scrawls to get to 80.0%, but I believe we're still lacking talent as game set 41-49 shows our set back.

 

[Deuce22]

I think the teacher analogy is good. Not putting all the blame on him. If anything am Indifferent with Eakins, and know he doesn’t have much to work with, and the roster construction is on Verbeek. Special teams, has been a big part of their woes this season, imo, and I’m a firm believe that good or bad special teams trickle into a teams play at ES. Most of the new students are struggling, but some of the other students like Terry, Zegras, Henrique, McTavish, and even Fowler are fine.

We are bottom 3 in the league, Last in Goals For and Goals Against. Eakins is going to get some of the blame, even though he should get some benefit of the doubt given the support he has been given by his GM, which includes the Roster, and assistants he is working with. PK has shown significant improvement as of late but the PP is still lacking, and we have enough talent to be icing at least a 20% PP.

I’d run the numbers on the PK but I know that‘s your thing, but believe they are over 80% since mid Dec. If not for that putrid start would actually be middle of the pack in the league, maybe slightly better.

The only problem here is that you are cherry picking one year from a six year NHL career. He hasn't been successful ever, why would you expect that to change now?

 

[Leonardo87]

The only problem here is that you are cherry picking one year from a six year NHL career. He hasn't been successful ever, why would you expect that to change now?

I don't think Eakins is the guy to get us to the playoffs and beyond, but think the kids have developed well under him, I feel it's more the lack of roster and the poor PP execution that is hurting us this season more. I'm not crazy about his system but think there is more to blame than that. Don't get me wrong he certainly has part of the pie when it comes to the reasons, but trying to give him some benefit of the doubt with the roster he has been given to work with.

 

[Deuce22]

I don't think Eakins is the guy to get us to the playoffs and beyond, but think the kids have developed well under him, I feel it's more the lack of roster and the poor PP execution that is hurting us this season more. I'm not crazy about his system but think there is more to blame than that. Don't get me wrong he certainly has part of the pie when it comes to the reasons, but trying to give him some benefit of the doubt with the roster he has been given to work with.

Fair enough. But this organization needs a new voice, a new culture, and cleansing. I don't agree that he has done a good job of developing the young players. Some have moved forward, some are stagnant, some have regressed. It's a mixed bag.

 

[Leonardo87]

Fair enough. But this organization needs a new voice, a new culture, and cleansing. I don't agree that he has done a good job of developing the young players. Some have moved forward, some are stagnant, some have regressed. It's a mixed bag.

I am sure there is better out there to get more out of the kids, no doubt, but don't think he has hurt their development. Comtois for one did it to himself, not Eakins, imho.

Everyone else has shown improvement. Lundy and Drysdale were both injured so really can't tell with them, although Lundy has been very good since being back.

Again, I think everyone is down in production, because of the defense structure, lack of depth, and PP execution. Improve those items and will see improvement across the board. Sadly, can't fix that overnight.

 

[DavidBL]

There are bits of Eakins I like. But at the end if the day the results are just terrible under him. We can't blame it all on roster construction. Imo if he changed his defensive systems I wouldn't mind seeing how he fairs. I get the sense that he has his system and trys to force the players into rather than adapting his systems to fit his players. No idea if that's true.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I think the teacher analogy is good. Not putting all the blame on him. If anything am Indifferent with Eakins, and know he doesn’t have much to work with, and the roster construction is on Verbeek. Special teams, has been a big part of their woes this season, imo, and I’m a firm believe that good or bad special teams trickle into a teams play at ES. Most of the new students are struggling, but some of the other students like Terry, Zegras, Henrique, McTavish, and even Fowler are fine.

We are bottom 3 in the league, Last in Goals For and Goals Against. Eakins is going to get some of the blame, even though he should get some benefit of the doubt given the support he has been given by his GM, which includes the Roster, and assistants he is working with. PK has shown significant improvement as of late but the PP is still lacking, and we have enough talent to be icing at least a 20% PP.

Finding the significant Woe Factor

​

Ducks​	Comp​	2021​	vs​	2022​	​	Part 1​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Season​	Game Set​	GF​	GA​	GD​	​	PPG​	PPO​	Eff​	​	PPGA​	TSH​	PK Eff​
2021-22​	1 to 50​	146​	147​	-1​	​	33​	135​	24.4%​	​	24​	140​	82.9%​
2022-23​	1 to 50​	125​	205​	-80​	​	23​	145​	15.9%​	​	48​	174​	72.4%​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
​	Difference​	21​	-58​	79​	​	10​	-10​	8.6%​	​	-24​	-34​	10.4%​

​

Ducks Comp​	2021 v 2022​	Part 2​	​	​
Season​	Game Set​	ES GF​	ES GA​	ES GD​
2021-22​	1 to 50​	113​	90​	23​
2022-23​	1 to 50​	102​	148​	-46​
​	​	​	​	​
​	Difference​	11​	-58​	69​

Just comparing last year to this year, our biggest deficiencies are the PK and ES defense. The common factor in both the PK and ES is the blue line.

​

Ducks​	2021-22​	​	D-men​	​	VS​	Ducks​	2022-23​	​	D-men​	​
Player​	Games​	Pts​	Plus/Minus​	Goal Diff​	​	Player​	Games​	Pts​	Plus/Minus​	Goal Diff​
Drysdale​	81​	32​	-26​	6​	​	Klingberg​	42​	17​	-26​	-9​
Mahura​	38​	7​	-14​	-7​	​	Vaaks​	23​	2​	-16​	-14​
Shattenkirk​	82​	35​	-9​	26​	​	Benoit​	46​	6​	-16​	-10​
Fowler​	76​	42​	-9​	33​	​	Beaulieu​	24​	4​	-13​	-9​
Vaaks​	14​	2​	-5​	-3​	​	Fowler​	50​	26​	-13​	13​
Benoit​	53​	5​	-5​	0​	​	Kulikov​	50​	10​	-11​	-1​
Sustr​	23​	5​	-3​	2​	​	Shattenkirk​	43​	11​	-11​	0​
Manson​	45​	9​	0​	9​	​	White​	20​	2​	-4​	-2​
Lindholm​	61​	22​	0​	22​	​	Drysdale​	8​	0​	-3​	-3​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Sum​	473​	159​	-71​	88​	​	Sum​	306​	78​	-113​	-35​

It is a feat that both Manson and Linholm had a +0 rating when their partners were Fowler and Drysdale, respectively. Kulikov and Klingberg are a combined -10 goal diffential, but Manson and Lindholm are +31 goal differential.

We are asking our offensive d-men to play more defensive d-men style. Fowler's scoring rate is a bit lower this year. Shatty has had terrible pairing mates and forced to babysit them. Currently, Vaaks is the player Shattenkirk is babysitting. Yes, Vaaks is that bad as a third pairing.

Lindholm and Manson both play on the PK. The off-season acquisition of Kulikov and Beaulieu play the PK, not Klingberg.

Ducks	2021-22		Forwards		VS	Ducks	2022-23		Forwards
Player	Games	Pts	Plus/Minus	Goal Diff		Player	Games	Pts	Plus/Minus	Goal Diff
Getzlaf	56	37	-14	23		Vatrano	50	23	-22	1
Milano	66	34	-9	25		Strome	50	25	-20	5
Rakell	51	28	-7	21
Sum	173​	99​	-30​	69​		Sum	100​	48​	-42​	6​

Here, we can see we are lacking support from our forward group. We can see last year's group did play better than this year's group. A huge reason for that could be that Lindholm and Manson were part of the team. Rakell's numbers were with Lindholm and Manson.

I expected better defense from Strome and Vatrano, but they're a significant part why our ES defense sucks. We've recently separated both to play on different lines with forwards who play better defense:

Vatrano - McTavish - Jones​

Strome - dynamic Lundy - Silf​

Penalties ===

We are committing far more penalties than last year. Who's committing them?

Penalty Minutes, 2022-23

1. Comtois with 70 minutes (5th overall in league)​

2. Zegras with 58 minutes (22nd overall in league)​

3. Carrick with 44 minutes​

4. Strome with 42 minutes​

I understand why Comtois and Carrick have high penalty minutes because they are our pugilists on the team. What I don't understand is that we have two top-6 guys with that much penalties accrued, one very young and one old. We are playing with fire because our PK has not been great this season.

Conclusion ===

The only difference in the coaching staff was the departure of asst coach Ward, who helped fix the PP last year with Brown. The PP unit replaced offensive talent with McTavish and Klingberg, but are underperforming. The PK unit lost many regulars either due to trade or injuries.

With better defensive d-men, not only will the goals against improve, but it can also help spur on offense since the defense is winning more puck battles that converts to playing more offense as well as let our OFD play offense than forced to play defense. Also, the team needs improved two-way play from Terry, Zegras, Strome, and Vatrano as all four are signed for the next couple of years. Vatrano has two more years under contract, Strome has four more years, and the youth will command long term deals.

Since I think we're building our defense through the draft, we many not see vast improvements until three years later starting next year.

As for coaching, I'm surprised Eakins was extended this year. I was fully expecting a new GM to bring in his new coach. I don't understand why Eakins gets the brunt of this team failing. It is as if last year's start never occurred. This year, I've pointed out that the talented players are still producing and young McTavish is progressing. It's the less talented players on the team that are having a difficult time adjusting. When people start looking at the bigger picture, then maybe fans will start to acknowledge that having less talent affects the product on the ice the most. Conversely, adding talent to a team improves the chances of success and talent depth - isn't that why there are buyers at the TDL? More talent = improving chances of success.

Welp, Verbeek admitted he blew up the team at last year's TDL. We now know his off-season acquisitions compared to the talent he gave away.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I don't think Eakins is the guy to get us to the playoffs and beyond, but think the kids have developed well under him, I feel it's more the lack of roster and the poor PP execution that is hurting us this season more. I'm not crazy about his system but think there is more to blame than that. Don't get me wrong he certainly has part of the pie when it comes to the reasons, but trying to give him some benefit of the doubt with the roster he has been given to work with.

2020-21, team finished with 2nd worst record in the league.

Start of 2021-22 season, team skyrocketed to the top of the Pacific division. At the end of the season, the team fire sale itself down after the TDL to 10th overall. This year exposes how much talent was lost and not replaced equally to by vying for bottom-3 spot today.

Not many predicted that we'd looked like a fringe playoff team to start the 2021-22 season. I was one of those who predicted that could happen if the team was healthy, our ST coaches improve, and our youths take another step. This was due to how the team played under Eakins during COVID season. All three factors happened in the first 33 games of 2021-22. Then injuries started happened and our lack of talent depth was exposed. Afterwards, the Verbeekining happened and our defense as well as our physicality were traded away to where we finished 10th overall.

This off-season, I predicted we'd suck when comparing last year's talent loss with incoming talent. I was just really interested in McTavish developing at center along with seeing Terry and Z maintain their scoring rate to establish consistency. At last year's TDL, I was already predicting the long road back, regardless of who's coaching. Why? It's all due to talent accrued and we won't have that for a while.

Getzlaf retired because even he knew there wasn't enough talent on the team to contend after the Verbeekening.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

They really need to fix SD also. I don't watch the games, is it the roster, coaching, combination of both?

IMO, it's a combo of both, but more of lacking talent. Comparing the rosters between the two seasons and it feels like we got less talented and not enough talent to surround our young talents.

For many, it's their third coach in three years, with Bouchard teaching individual improvement over learning system play.

 

[duckpuck]

He would have to really force the issue. Verbeek didn't let him stay in training camp very long and I suspect would not want to rush him next season.

Maybe if injuries pile up he gets a call-up if and only if he's dominating in San Diego. It's easy to get excited about the player, but I'd be shocked if he didn't spend all of next season in the A.

There is no way Zell should be counted on in the NHL next year. Sign or trade for a stop gap d-man and then make Zell earn his way into the lineup.

Also, hopefully we're signing Thrune and/or LaCombe. They probably should start in SD, but both of those guys are more physically ready than Zell.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

There is no way Zell should be counted on in the NHL next year. Sign or trade for a stop gap d-man and then make Zell earn his way into the lineup.

Also, hopefully we're signing Thrune and/or LaCombe. They probably should start in SD, but both of those guys are more physically ready than Zell.

Yeah, theoretically Thrun and LaCombe should get a shot before Zellweger. If they both sign, we could have a good problem in that there would be a significant logjam on the left side.

 

[bsu]

Bruh if we start Zellweger in the NHL next season ima be pissed. I guess they didn't learn their lesson with Drysdale.

 

[ADHB]

Yeah, theoretically Thrun and LaCombe should get a shot before Zellweger. If they both sign, we could have a good problem in that there would be a significant logjam on the left side.

I think both Lacombe and Zellweger routinely play the right side. Whether they'll be successful at it as a pro I have no idea, but it's nice to know they have a lot of experience at it.

 

[Bergey37]

There are bits of Eakins I like. But at the end if the day the results are just terrible under him. We can't blame it all on roster construction. Imo if he changed his defensive systems I wouldn't mind seeing how he fairs. I get the sense that he has his system and trys to force the players into rather than adapting his systems to fit his players. No idea if that's true.

What I can glean from watching the Ducks play D are two main points:

1) It very much appears that Eakins' system is quite willing to give up the perimeter in favor pf protecting the middle. This would help explain the wide shot differentials; even in those games, the scoring chances are much more even.

2) We are not that good at protecting the middle because, from what I've seen, just about EVERYBODY in the D-zone gets totally puck-focused. When they're like this, the weak side attackers are able to slide into the slot and they're left open. If we don't stop the cross-ice pass (and we rarely do), it's in the net. To me, this is a player and practice (and therefore coaching) issue. Seems that they will have to drill on-ice awareness in the D-zone back into their heads.

 

[DavidBL]

What I can glean from watching the Ducks play D are two main points:

1) It very much appears that Eakins' system is quite willing to give up the perimeter in favor pf protecting the middle. This would help explain the wide shot differentials; even in those games, the scoring chances are much more even.

2) We are not that good at protecting the middle because, from what I've seen, just about EVERYBODY in the D-zone gets totally puck-focused. When they're like this, the weak side attackers are able to slide into the slot and they're left open. If we don't stop the cross-ice pass (and we rarely do), it's in the net. To me, this is a player and practice (and therefore coaching) issue. Seems that they will have to drill on-ice awareness in the D-zone back into their heads.

So how do you fix it? If the second statement is accurate what is causing it. Are guys just too puck focuses because they are inexperienced in the system? Do the appear puck focused because they are trying to determine who has the puck to then identify their marks? How ever the system is supposed to work. we are not very good at it and I am unsure how much of the blame is on just the players.

 

[Bergey37]

So how do you fix it? If the second statement is accurate what is causing it. Are guys just too puck focuses because they are inexperienced in the system? Do the appear puck focused because they are trying to determine who has the puck to then identify their marks? How ever the system is supposed to work. we are not very good at it and I am unsure how much of the blame is on just the players.

Fair questions, all. The short answer is, I don't know how to fix it; I've never coached a team in anything close to a seriously competitive league. The longer version? I say it's a player and practice issue because both contribute to the problem. I DO think that there are some players that just don't have the discipline to turn away from the puck and evaluate what's going on around them. IMO this is one of the main things that separate the good defensemen from the also-rans.I also believe the ones that DO have the discipline are the ones who had it drilled into them over the years (practice!) and have taken the lesson to heart. It's different for a forward; those guys are always looking around for who's open and where can they send the puck, or who is about to cream them. By definition it's very puck-focused. Defensemen on the other hand, have to see the developing play like on a chessboard, and they have to keep looking around to do it since they don't have the bird's-eye view. This has to be taught, and I fear our younger players haven't learned it well enough. I also wonder if offensive-minded defensemen (Klingberg for instance) ever really learn it.

 

[bsu]

So how do you fix it?

Find two Hampus Lindholms and one Matty Beniers.

 

[MMC]

Wonder who we waive if Grant comes back before another injury/trade

 

[DavidBL]

Find two Hampus Lindholms and one Matty Beniers.

That doesn't seem very viable.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Wonder who we waive if Grant comes back before another injury/trade

Leason hasn’t played much, but Washington may well want hm back. Megna is unlikely to be picked up and hasn’t been bad on the 4th line.

I’d guess Megna if they think Leason has a future here, and Megna if they want to actively make the team worse.

 

[duckpuck]

What I can glean from watching the Ducks play D are two main points:

1) It very much appears that Eakins' system is quite willing to give up the perimeter in favor pf protecting the middle. This would help explain the wide shot differentials; even in those games, the scoring chances are much more even.

2) We are not that good at protecting the middle because, from what I've seen, just about EVERYBODY in the D-zone gets totally puck-focused. When they're like this, the weak side attackers are able to slide into the slot and they're left open. If we don't stop the cross-ice pass (and we rarely do), it's in the net. To me, this is a player and practice (and therefore coaching) issue. Seems that they will have to drill on-ice awareness in the D-zone back into their heads.

I'm not a coach, but my impression is that the ducks play a system (akin to a zone defense) where a duck defender guards the opponent in his "zone" but if the offensive guy moves, he is passed off to adjacent defenders. In many cases, they double team as the offensive player moves from zone to zone.

As a result, by necessity the defensive guys have to be puck focused (since the defender needs to be ready to pick up the guy entering his zone). And the double teaming means a guy is open somewhere.

I don't know the details of the system, but the results speak for themselves, not to mention how many D-men have played in Eakins system, left, and done much better elsewhere.

 

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

Bruh if we start Zellweger in the NHL next season ima be pissed. I guess they didn't learn their lesson with Drysdale.

Zellweger is even less ready than Drysdale was.

Which isn't a knock on either, it's just the reality of kids usually not being able to make the leap from juniors to NHL so quickly.