Speculation: 2022-23 Roster Thread Part II

[Leonardo87]

On one hand yes, on the other hand, he won a D-zone faceoff against McKinnon and 5 seconds later scored a goal while making a fool out of Makar just last night

That made my night, lol

 

[EXTRAS]

It seems like the days of pure playmaking centres like Getzlaf, Sedin, Backstrom, Thornton etc are kinda over. There are Cs who might have passing biases, like Zegs, but they also like to score goals.

Kuzneysov
Rob thomas
Barzal

I think sedin and Thornton were just extreme versions that came around at the same time and backstrom just happened to play with one of the goat scorers

 

[goonsaredumb]

 

[Hockey Duckie]

View attachment 644167

Defense dWAR (50 Ducks games)

White: 55% for 20 games​

Shatty: 34% for 43 games​

Kulikov: 30% for 50 games​

Fowler: 16% for 50 games​

Vaaks: 10% for 23 games​

Beaulieu: 9% for 24 games​

Benoit: 7% for 46 games​

Klingberg: 0% for 42 games​

When White and Shatty are your best defensive guys, that should make every Duck fan shiver and shudder.

Forwards with 50% dWAR or higher

Megna: 68% in 23 games​

Rico: 60% in 49 games​

Silf: 57% in 49 games​

Jones: 54% in 37 games​

McTavish: 52% in 49 games​

- Lundy's oWAR and dWAR reflects how terrible Lundy was to start the season.
- Terry's dWAR surprised the hell out of me at 4%. Terry is Klingberg as a forward?! Say it ain't so.
- Strome's dWAR did not surprise me, though, at 2%. Been calling his lack of defensive play out all season.
- Vatrano's dWAR at 1%, see Strome's comment above.
- McTavish is our best two-way starting Center (oWAR and dWAR).

Line 3: Strome-Lundy-Silf

Lundy's return to his old dynamic self since coming back from IR. Silf's defense works well with dynamic Lundy. Both of their defense helps to mask Strome's deficiency.​

Line 1: Vatrano-McTavish-Jones

Same story with this line. McTavish and Jones have over 50% dWAR to mask Vatrano's defensive deficiency.​

Line 4: Comtois-Megna-Carrick

Megna is the defensive gem here.​

We have three lines that have strong centers and two lines with at least two players being good defensively. This way shelters Zegras and Terry pairing.

The chart confirms my assessment in the Arizona GDT, we need more defensive talent if we're trying to reproduce the 2021-22 first 33 games start. More talented defensive d-men will also enhance our offense since we're winning more puck battles and pushing the puck into the offensive zone more often.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

So the only guy worse than Terry at finishing his chances is Lundy? Somehow Vaaks is the same as Terry even though Vaaks has never finished a chance in his life?

 

[bsu]

So the only guy worse than Terry at finishing his chances is Lundy? Somehow Vaaks is the same as Terry even though Vaaks has never finished a chance in his life?

Just a stupid chart.

 

[bsu]

NHL Player Cards: Anaheim Ducks

Data visualizations for each relevant player on the Anaheim Ducks, stylized as hockey cards.

theathletic.com

This is absolutely disgusting to look at.... especially if you focus on the "market" value for all our players

 

[Hockey Duckie]

January NHL vibe check: Sinking Ducks, spicy Islanders, Moritz Seider’s rebound, more

The vibes are certainly getting dicey for some of last year’s Central Division playoff teams.

theathletic.com

 

[Leonardo87]

NHL Player Cards: Anaheim Ducks

Data visualizations for each relevant player on the Anaheim Ducks, stylized as hockey cards.

theathletic.com

This is absolutely disgusting to look at.... especially if you focus on the "market" value for all our players

Zegras on pace for around 70 points, and just under 30 goals and his value is 3.4 million? Wow. No comment.

 

[DavidBL]

Zegras on pace for around 70 points, and just under 30 goals and his value is 3.4 million? Wow. No comment.

Stuff like that just makes me laugh with the absurdity. I can't take them seriously.

 

[Leonardo87]

Stuff like that just makes me laugh with the absurdity. I can't take them seriously.

Honestly, I stopped reading the rest of the cards after that one. I was like. Whaaa?? Ok maybe I did dabble with the rest, lol. It wasn’t even the value part, just that we know the defense is an Issue, and everyone’s numbers are down due to a poorly constructed roster, and a questionable system. Special teams have not been good, and when you are stuck in your zone defending 75% of the time, these are the results.

It’s like a teacher whose entire class is struggling to learn the material, and they have to curve the grades. That is how I feel with this team and don’t get me wrong, have to cut some fat, and replace with youth and better stop gap vets for this team to start turning the ship.

 

[DavidBL]

Honestly, I stopped reading the rest of the cards after that one. I was like. Whaaa?? Ok maybe I did dabble with the rest, lol. It wasn’t even the value part, just that we know the defense is an Issue, and everyone’s numbers are down due to a poorly constructed roster, and a questionable system. Special teams have not been good, and when you are stuck in your zone defending 75% of the time, these are the results.

It’s like a teacher whose entire class is struggling to learn the material, and they have to curve the grades. That is how I feel with this team and don’t get me wrong, have to cut some fat, and replace with youth and better stop gap vets for this team to start turning the ship.

Not sure there is a whole lot of Fat left to cut. Time to build the muscle I think.

 

[Leonardo87]

Not sure there is a whole lot of Fat left to cut. Time to build the muscle I think.

Klingberg, Grant, Leason, Beaulieu, Megna, and Kulikov.

Bring in guys next year like Groulx, Regenda, and add some stop gap vets to improve the roster. Not sure who else would be ready in the system.

 

[DavidBL]

Klingberg, Grant, Leason, Beaulieu, Shattenkirk, Megna, and Kulikov.

Bring in guys next year like Groulx, Regenda, and add some stop gap vets to improve the roster. Not sure who else would be ready in the system.

I guess the fat is still there. my mind is in offseason mode already and assumed they were all gone already. I still find it odd that they want to resign Shattenkirk. I imagine is has more to do with making sure we have at least one vet RD going into next season.

 

[Leonardo87]

I guess the fat is still there. my mind is in offseason mode already and assumed they were all gone already. I still find it odd that they want to resign Shattenkirk. I imagine is has more to do with making sure we have at least one vet RD going into next season.

I just edited him out because management feels he still can be useful if they are truly working on an extension. I’m indifferent and think we should give one or two of the kids in the system a shot if they are ready. Maybe thats the idea and Shatty becomes the 6/ 7th D to help back up a young D.

 

[DavidBL]

I just edited him out because management feels he still can be useful if they are truly working on an extension. I’m indifferent and think we should give one or two of the kids in the system a shot if they are ready. Maybe thats the idea and Shatty becomes the 6/ 7th D to help back up a young D.

I am okay with Shatty as a 6/7, still need 1 more top 4 RD and that is IF you count Drysdale( I do). Preferably one who specializes in D first as both Drysdale and Shatty are more known for offense.

 

[Leonardo87]

Yeah, it’s been a shitty season, but nice seeing our guys making this, First Zegras with the 3rd star of the week and now Gibby…

 

[Ducks DVM]

Klingberg, Grant, Leason, Beaulieu, Megna, and Kulikov.

Bring in guys next year like Groulx, Regenda, and add some stop gap vets to improve the roster. Not sure who else would be ready in the system.

I don’t think Kulikov belongs on this list. I think he’s a decent 2nd pairing guy being forced to play top minutes with another 2nd pairing guy and is getting exposed.

 

[anezthes]

Zegras on pace for around 70 points, and just under 30 goals and his value is 3.4 million? Wow. No comment.

All of these models are ********* because they're not able to accurately "extract" and assess the individual. It's going to be awhile before that happens.

Or maybe I'm wrong and Skjei really is worth 9.5M, Hyman 13.7M, DeBrusk 10.6M, etc. Perhaps Brett Burns has been fooling us all along and really belongs in the 83rd percentile for defensive ±.

 

[duckpuck]

I don’t think Kulikov belongs on this list. I think he’s a decent 2nd pairing guy being forced to play top minutes with another 2nd pairing guy and is getting exposed.

Kulikov is a third pairing guy on a good team being forced to play way above that. I think he'd bring a lot of value to a playoff team as a 5/6/7.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Honestly, I stopped reading the rest of the cards after that one. I was like. Whaaa?? Ok maybe I did dabble with the rest, lol. It wasn’t even the value part, just that we know the defense is an Issue, and everyone’s numbers are down due to a poorly constructed roster, and a questionable system. Special teams have not been good, and when you are stuck in your zone defending 75% of the time, these are the results.

It’s like a teacher whose entire class is struggling to learn the material, and they have to curve the grades. That is how I feel with this team and don’t get me wrong, have to cut some fat, and replace with youth and better stop gap vets for this team to start turning the ship.

The biggest anchor to the team is the lack of defensive talent. I showed that with the excel tables comparisons, the WAR chart reflects that, and the Athletic player card supports it.

I would question the system if it never took off last last year with a healthy, talented group. Last year was a great example of when talent is lost during the season it directly affects the play on ice. I've shared the three periods: Game set 1-33 (mostly healthy), Game set 34-62 (injuries happened, especially on defense), and Game 62-82 (after the Verbeekening TDL). We had a positive goal differential in Game set 1-33.

Off-season acquisitions: D White, C Strome, RW Strome, D Klingberg, D Kulikov, and D Beaulieu. Strome and Vatrano played top-6, both defensively worthless on the whole. All four D-men cannot make up the two D-men we lost in Lindholm and Manson. Add in the fact we lost Drysdale early in the season for the year and it further exposes how terrible the talent we've amassed on the blue line.

Using a teacher analogy, the principal took away some of the best students, a leader student left the country (retirement), and then replaced them with older kids from lower grades. The talented, younger kids are progressing, but these other older kids lacking talent brought in by the principal. Expecting the same outcome with lesser talented kids and it's always the teacher that gets the blame. lol

 

[Leonardo87]

I don’t think Kulikov belongs on this list. I think he’s a decent 2nd pairing guy being forced to play top minutes with another 2nd pairing guy and is getting exposed.

Yeah, I put him on the list because I know he is being shopped. But if he was not playing above his head (like all the D on this team) he would be solid. I just don’t think Verbeek is looking to keep him. That Fowler - Kulikov pair has probably been the better of the D pairing, which is not saying much. But if they were the 2nd pairing and we had a better pairing above them, would be a decent Top 4D. Imo.

 

[Leonardo87]

Using a teacher analogy, the principal took away some of the best students, a leader student left the country (retirement), and then replaced them with older kids from lower grades. The talented, younger kids are progressing, but these other older kids lacking talent brought in by the principal. Expecting the same outcome with lesser talented kids and it's always the teacher that gets the blame. lol

I think the teacher analogy is good. Not putting all the blame on him. If anything am Indifferent with Eakins, and know he doesn’t have much to work with, and the roster construction is on Verbeek. Special teams, has been a big part of their woes this season, imo, and I’m a firm believe that good or bad special teams trickle into a teams play at ES. Most of the new students are struggling, but some of the other students like Terry, Zegras, Henrique, McTavish, and even Fowler are fine.

We are bottom 3 in the league, Last in Goals For and Goals Against. Eakins is going to get some of the blame, even though he should get some benefit of the doubt given the support he has been given by his GM, which includes the Roster, and assistants he is working with. PK has shown significant improvement as of late but the PP is still lacking, and we have enough talent to be icing at least a 20% PP.

I’d run the numbers on the PK but I know that‘s your thing, but believe they are over 80% since mid Dec. If not for that putrid start would actually be middle of the pack in the league, maybe slightly better.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Klingberg, Grant, Leason, Beaulieu, Megna, and Kulikov.

Bring in guys next year like Groulx, Regenda, and add some stop gap vets to improve the roster. Not sure who else would be ready in the system.

Dostal.

 

[gilfaizon]

Dostal.

I can see Zellweger being ready as well. If Drysdale can play, Zellweger certainly can as well. He's not far off.

No interest in rushing him in what looks like another tough season, but I think he will see his first NHL games next year.