Speculation: 2022-23 Roster Thread Part II

[Hockey Duckie]

So either the team is underperforming or the models were WAY off.

I think the Ducks have a mediocre roster that is being terribly coached. But even with a competent coach our ceiling would probably be middle of the road so as much as he drives me absolutely insane maybe Eakins should stay.

Model is way off. Verbeek probably believed in those models too.

There's lots of hype around the 2022 off-season acquisition class of C Strome, RW Vatrano, D Klingberg, and D Kulikov. Models believe all things equal, but all four came from playoff teams and are going to a rebuild Ducks team.

Ducks
Out			Regular	Season	2021-22		In		Regular	Season	2021-22
Player	Pos	Games	Pts	PPG	Plus/Minus	.	Player	Pos	Pts	PPG	Plus/Minus
Getz	C	56​	37​	0.66​	-14​		Strome	C	54​	0.73​	15​
Milano	W	66​	34​	0.52​	-9​		Vatrano	W	32​	0.45​	4​
Rakell	W	51​	28​	0.55​	-7​
Total			99​	1.73​	-30​		Total		86​	1.18​	19​
Out			Regular	Season	2021-22		In		Regular	Season	2021-22
Player	Pos	Games	Pts	PPG	Plus/Minus		Player	Pos	Pts	PPG	Plus/Minus
Lindholm	LD	61​	22​	0.36​	0​		Klingberg	RD	47​	0.63​	-28​
Manson	RD	45​	9​	0.20​	0​		Kulikov	LD	24​	0.30​	23​
Total			31​	0.56​	0​		Total		71​	0.93​	-5​

On paper, it does look like the Ducks got better with the new acquisitions. But models don't know about roster balance. Let's look at how those four new Ducks are doing after 28 games.

New Ducks						After	28 games
FA		2021-22				2022-23	10-Dec​
Player	Pts	PPG	Plus/Minus	.	Pts	PPG	Plus/minus
Strome	54​	0.73​	15​		14​	0.50​	-12​
Vatrano	32​	0.45​	4​		10​	0.36​	-9​
Klingberg	47​	0.63​	-28​		8​	0.38​	-14​
Kulikov	24​	0.30​	23​		9​	0.32​	-7​
Totals	157​		14​		41​		-42​

Crazy. The plus/minus rating sum for the four new Ducks is much worse than the five Ducks no longer with the team. Only one of the four new Ducks is able to reproduce their scoring rate from their previous season.

It looks like Verbeek brought in worse talent than the ones he didn't want back + Getz. Player production from playoff teams cannot translate directly when going to a rebuild team.

Here's the odd part, 19-year old rookie McTavish, who hasn't been given a lot of minutes to start the season nor part of the PP until recently is a 0.50 ppg player in 28 games with -8.

 

[Deuce22]

Model is way off. Verbeek probably believed in those models too.

There's lots of hype around the 2022 off-season acquisition class of C Strome, RW Vatrano, D Klingberg, and D Kulikov. Models believe all things equal, but all four came from playoff teams and are going to a rebuild Ducks team.

Ducks
Out			Regular	Season	2021-22		In		Regular	Season	2021-22
Player	Pos	Games	Pts	PPG	Plus/Minus	.	Player	Pos	Pts	PPG	Plus/Minus
Getz	C	56​	37​	0.66​	-14​		Strome	C	54​	0.73​	15​
Milano	W	66​	34​	0.52​	-9​		Vatrano	W	32​	0.45​	4​
Rakell	W	51​	28​	0.55​	-7​
Total			99​	1.73​	-30​		Total		86​	1.18​	19​
Out			Regular	Season	2021-22		In		Regular	Season	2021-22
Player	Pos	Games	Pts	PPG	Plus/Minus		Player	Pos	Pts	PPG	Plus/Minus
Lindholm	LD	61​	22​	0.36​	0​		Klingberg	RD	47​	0.63​	-28​
Manson	RD	45​	9​	0.20​	0​		Kulikov	LD	24​	0.30​	23​
Total			31​	0.56​	0​		Total		71​	0.93​	-5​

On paper, it does look like the Ducks got better with the new acquisitions. But models don't know about roster balance. Let's look at how those four new Ducks are doing after 28 games.

New Ducks						After	28 games
FA		2021-22				2022-23	10-Dec​
Player	Pts	PPG	Plus/Minus	.	Pts	PPG	Plus/minus
Strome	54​	0.73​	15​		14​	0.50​	-12​
Vatrano	32​	0.45​	4​		10​	0.36​	-9​
Klingberg	47​	0.63​	-28​		8​	0.38​	-14​
Kulikov	24​	0.30​	23​		9​	0.32​	-7​
Totals	157​		14​		41​		-42​

Crazy. The plus/minus rating sum for the four new Ducks is much worse than the five Ducks no longer with the team. Only one of the four new Ducks is able to reproduce their scoring rate from their previous season.

It looks like Verbeek brought in worse talent than the ones he didn't want back + Getz. Player production from playoff teams cannot translate directly when going to a rebuild team.

Here's the odd part, 19-year old rookie McTavish, who hasn't been given a lot of minutes to start the season nor part of the PP until recently is a 0.50 ppg player in 28 games with -8.

Models seem to all be in the same range. Vegas over/under was about 80 points. The only outlier here is the Ducks' performance.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Models seem to all be in the same range. Vegas over/under was about 80 points. The only outlier here is the Ducks' performance.

I don't think you're good at reading charts.

NJ, Bos, VGK, Sea, and WPG have overperformed the model. The difference between NJ and the model is vastly greater than the difference between the Ducks and the model. CBJ, SJ, OTT, and StL are underperforming with a big variance.

Narratives vs facts. Models aren't perfect, but I am more accurate than the model when it comes to the Ducks. Now, maybe you can use research to discover why the model wasn't close to accurate with the Ducks (or NJ or Bos). I gave you my reasons. You, you gave a lazy response that reveals you cannot read a chart nor understand what "the only outlier" means.

 

[KyleJRM]

Roster balance is the big issue, imo. Not having an actual top-pairing defensive-minded defenseman is absolutely destroying them.

 

[bsu]

Roster balance is the big issue, imo. Not having an actual top-pairing defensive-minded defenseman is absolutely destroying them.

Not having ANY defensive defensemen you mean lol Kulikov is actually underrated offensively and Benoit isn't good enough to be considered a full defensive defensemen yet. Everyone else is a "transition" defensemen. We have no real offensive defensemen and no real defensive defensemen when you really think about it. It's no wonder we have 1 regulation win.

 

[Deuce22]

I don't think you're good at reading charts.

NJ, Bos, VGK, Sea, and WPG have overperformed the model. The difference between NJ and the model is vastly greater than the difference between the Ducks and the model. CBJ, SJ, OTT, and StL are underperforming with a big variance.

Narratives vs facts. Models aren't perfect, but I am more accurate than the model when it comes to the Ducks. Now, maybe you can use research to discover why the model wasn't close to accurate with the Ducks (or NJ or Bos). I gave you my reasons. You, you gave a lazy response that reveals you cannot read a chart nor understand what "the only outlier" means.

You either misunderstood, or intentionally muddied the water. When I referred to outlier, I was only talking about the Ducks. Models and Vegas over/under have the Ducks winning much more than they are. Ducks actual performance is the "outlier," far removed from all the predictions. I never referred (or implied anything) about any other team on the chart.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

NHL 2022-23 bold predictions, revisited: How our preseason prognostications are holding up two months in

Heading into 2022-23, The Athletic asked its NHL staff for bold predictions, and two months later, some are holding up better than others.

theathletic.com

Anaheim Ducks​

Preseason bold prediction: Mason McTavish will win the Calder Trophy

Outlook two months in: Definitely still in play

Analysis: McTavish has an uphill battle with Seattle center Matty Beniers and Vegas goalie Logan Thompson moving out front early. And it is a pretty good class, with several other Calder candidates around the league. But the 19-year-old is still in the conversation and is coming on as Anaheim coach Dallas Eakins has him at his natural center position and is giving him additional responsibility and ice time. He has 14 points and is carrying a spot on the top power-play unit. He’s driving the team’s third line and could lock that spot down with Isac Lundestrom injured. More time playing with the Ducks’ skill players could boost him up the rookie scoring list. — Eric Stephens

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Players cards on a lot of Ducks

NHL Player Cards: Anaheim Ducks

Data visualizations for each relevant player on the Anaheim Ducks, stylized as hockey cards.

theathletic.com

​

Lundestrom​	GSVA​	Player Card​	​	​	​
​	2020-21​	2021-22​	.​	2022-23​	2022-23 on 82-game pace​
Goals​	12​	16​	​	1​	9​
Offense​	-8.6​	-10.3​	​	-4.5​	-9.4​
Defense​	0.8​	-0.4​	​	-7.1​	-12.1​
GSVA​	-0.5​	0.1​	​	-0.5​	-1​

This shows how Lundy's defense has fallen off of a high cliff. Since his defense is unable to win pucks/earn puck possession, then his goal scoring has also taken a hit.

GSVA Percentile Ranking per line/pairing

​

Ducks​	Forwards​	GSVA Pct Rank​	​	​	​
LW​	Pct Rank​	Center​	Pct Rank​	RW​	​
Rico​	80​	Zegras​	77​	Terry​	93​
Comtois​	18​	Strome​	17​	Vatrano​	13​
Grant​	6​	Lundestrom​	9​	Silfverberg​	9​
Jones​	7​	McTavish​	36​	Leason​	4​

McTavish making Strome and Vatrano look very bad.

​

Ducks​	Defense​	GSVA Pct Rank​	​
LD​	Pct Rank​	RD​	PCt Rank​
Fowler​	33​	Drysdale​	22​
Kulikov​	10​	Klingberg​	9​
Benoit​	0​	Shattenkirk​	36​

Shattenkirk is our best defenseman with respect to GSVA percentile rank.

Ducks Goalies​	GSVA Pct Rank​
Goalie​	Pct Rank​
Gibson​	39​
Stolarz​	32​

 

[bsu]

NHL 2022-23 bold predictions, revisited: How our preseason prognostications are holding up two months in

Heading into 2022-23, The Athletic asked its NHL staff for bold predictions, and two months later, some are holding up better than others.

theathletic.com

Anaheim Ducks​

Preseason bold prediction: Mason McTavish will win the Calder Trophy

Outlook two months in: Definitely still in play

Analysis: McTavish has an uphill battle with Seattle center Matty Beniers and Vegas goalie Logan Thompson moving out front early. And it is a pretty good class, with several other Calder candidates around the league. But the 19-year-old is still in the conversation and is coming on as Anaheim coach Dallas Eakins has him at his natural center position and is giving him additional responsibility and ice time. He has 14 points and is carrying a spot on the top power-play unit. He’s driving the team’s third line and could lock that spot down with Isac Lundestrom injured. More time playing with the Ducks’ skill players could boost him up the rookie scoring list. — Eric Stephens

Stephens with another great take.... definitely focusing more on the Kings when you compare the articles since he took over both.

 

[robbieboy3686]

Stephens with another great take.... definitely focusing more on the Kings when you compare the articles since he took over both.

F that dude. He’s always tilted me, has big d energy insider wannabe vibes, but has never had any insider skills.

 

[bsu]

F that dude. He’s always tilted me, has big d energy insider wannabe vibes, but has never had any insider skills.

The Athletic has become quite the joke with all the budget cuts.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

F that dude. He’s always tilted me, has big d energy insider wannabe vibes, but has never had any insider skills.

 

[Boo Boo]

F that dude. He’s always tilted me, has big d energy insider wannabe vibes, but has never had any insider skills.

Brother he’s just a guy with a job. Give him a break.

 

[dracom]

F that dude. He’s always tilted me, has big d energy insider wannabe vibes, but has never had any insider skills.

He’s literally never been that or said that. You’re getting tilted for no reason lol

 

[JonathnTaylorTavares]

Brother he’s just a guy with a job. Give him a break.

f*** jobs

 

[Leonardo87]

Was actually at the park when they were filming, totally missed them.

 

[Deuce22]

Was actually at the park when they were filming, totally missed them.

OOOPS!

 

[Deuce22]

Last night wasn't good, but I was really excited about what we saw from McTavish and Dostal. The future McTavish is going to be a bull in a china shop, dominating possession in the offensive zone. He is really good at disrupting the D and maintaining possession. It's probably not going to result in many goals playing with Jones and Leason, but I think he has "beast" in his future. Dostal showed me a lot. Calm, very quick and athletic. Played the puck pretty well and battled. Upside to me is a more disciplined (but less spectacular) Jonathan Quick. Downside is a capable backup. It will be interesting to see how much run he gets the rest of this year.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Last night wasn't good, but I was really excited about what we saw from McTavish and Dostal. The future McTavish is going to be a bull in a china shop, dominating possession in the offensive zone. He is really good at disrupting the D and maintaining possession. It's probably not going to result in many goals playing with Jones and Leason, but I think he has "beast" in his future. Dostal showed me a lot. Calm, very quick and athletic. Played the puck pretty well and battled. Upside to me is a more disciplined (but less spectacular) Jonathan Quick. Downside is a capable backup. It will be interesting to see how much run he gets the rest of this year.

I’d guess Dostal gets a few injury fill-in games, then gets to come up after one of the NHL contracts gets moved at the trade deadline, most likely Stolarz.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

Last night wasn't good, but I was really excited about what we saw from McTavish and Dostal. The future McTavish is going to be a bull in a china shop, dominating possession in the offensive zone. He is really good at disrupting the D and maintaining possession. It's probably not going to result in many goals playing with Jones and Leason, but I think he has "beast" in his future. Dostal showed me a lot. Calm, very quick and athletic. Played the puck pretty well and battled. Upside to me is a more disciplined (but less spectacular) Jonathan Quick. Downside is a capable backup. It will be interesting to see how much run he gets the rest of this year.

Pierre luc dubois = mctavish

 

[Kalv]

Last night wasn't good, but I was really excited about what we saw from McTavish and Dostal. The future McTavish is going to be a bull in a china shop, dominating possession in the offensive zone. He is really good at disrupting the D and maintaining possession. It's probably not going to result in many goals playing with Jones and Leason, but I think he has "beast" in his future. Dostal showed me a lot. Calm, very quick and athletic. Played the puck pretty well and battled. Upside to me is a more disciplined (but less spectacular) Jonathan Quick. Downside is a capable backup. It will be interesting to see how much run he gets the rest of this year.

I'm a bit sceptic about the bull in the china shop. He's still 6'0 and it will limit him. I mean, chicago alone is building a blueline of 6'2+ guys... He wasn't even a bull in china shop in juniors, btw.

There are several exciting elements in his game nontheless tho. He likes to quietly stir things up, go to battle, he can take the puck and knows what to do with it in tight situations, has a legit shot, yet sees the ice well, etc.

 

[kanucks25]

Curious as to what the current word is on Henrique.

I know he's played a lot of wing in Anaheim, but what are the prospects of him being a solid checking 3rd line center going forward?

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Curious as to what the current word is on Henrique.

I know he's played a lot of wing in Anaheim, but what are the prospects of him being a solid checking 3rd line center going forward?

Not something he's known for.

He's filled in on draws and probably could still be a productive 2nd/3rd line center on another team with the right wingers. He's streaky though. And there are times when it looks like he's floating around and doesn't care too much about what's happening.

 

[Daz28]

I'm a bit sceptic about the bull in the china shop. He's still 6'0 and it will limit him. I mean, chicago alone is building a blueline of 6'2+ guys... He wasn't even a bull in china shop in juniors, btw.

There are several exciting elements in his game nontheless tho. He likes to quietly stir things up, go to battle, he can take the puck and knows what to do with it in tight situations, has a legit shot, yet sees the ice well, etc.

A skilled Dino Ciccarelli works for me.

 

[kanucks25]

Not something he's known for.

He's filled in on draws and probably could still be a productive 2nd/3rd line center on another team with the right wingers. He's streaky though. And there are times when it looks like he's floating around and doesn't care too much about what's happening.

Thanks

(can't leave a like right now)