Hockey Duckie
Registered User
It's apparent where the Ducks need a lot more improvement from. Gonna take some time to find some true top-4 defensive, physical d-men.
Speculation: 2022-23 Roster Thread Part II
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MMC
Global Moderator
WhatTheDuck
9 - 20 - 8
Carpenter is a pretty reliable defensive 4th liner, decent in the dot and on the PK. Brings a bit of physicality, and on a league min expiring contract.
Rooney is supposed to bring some size, speed and tenacity on the forecheck. First season of a two year deal deal signed on the first day of FA (1.3M AAV), Flames are giving up on him rather quick.
Kaut getting dropped from a team with decimated forward depth while he's still young and cheap - pretty telling. Read that he's actually on year five of his ELC due to slide years. That weird quirk makes this a rare occasion where a first round pick hits the waiver wire while still on an ELC.
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- Sep 21, 2018
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Down Goes Brown: Putting J.T. Miller's contract on trial in the return of NHL cap court
It’s worth digging into some of these deals to see whether they're indeed bad contracts — as viewed from the team's perspective.
theathletic.com
John Gibson, Ducks
The details: Gibson is 29 and has this season and four more after it left on a deal that carries a $6.4 million cap hit.The case that it’s a bad contract: From his rookie season through his fourth year, Gibson was one of the better goalies in the league, posting a .922 save percentage. That was a long time ago, though, and in the four seasons since his numbers have flatlined down to just north of a .900 save percentage. That’s a big enough sample size that we can stop waiting for Gibson to regain his form and just accept that he’s now an average goaltender at best. For a guy with the third-highest cap hit among active goalies, that’s nowhere near good enough.
The case that it might be OK: While it’s technically true that Gibson’s cap hit ranks third among active goalies, that’s a little misleading — the two guys ahead of him (Sergei Bobrovsky and Andrei Vasilevskiy) are way ahead, and then comes a batch of nine guys between $6.4 million and $5.4 million. Gibson leads that group, sure, but not by much, so it’s really more accurate to say he’s lumped into a large-ish tier.
Still, his numbers aren’t great, and there’s no real case that you’d sign this contract again in hindsight. This year, Gibson is on pace for what would be the worst season of his career statistically, and is barely keeping his goals-against average below 4.00. But when you look at the team in front of him, that feels inevitable. The Ducks stink. Maybe instead of viewing Gibson’s deal as the Ducks paying for elite goaltending they’re not getting, we see it as them paying a premium for a veteran who can handle getting shelled while the team’s young core develops.
Key witnesses: That cohort of guys in the $6 million range includes some questionable contracts like the ones given to Matt Murray, Philipp Grubauer and Elvis Merzlikins. It also includes deals signed by Igor Shesterkin and Connor Hellebuyck. As always, goalies are all over the map.
The verdict: I don’t think Gibson is as bad as his numbers would indicate, but there’s no way you can spin his results into being worthy of a top-tier contract at this point. If there was one or two years left, maybe you shrug it off as a bad-defense tax. But with four full seasons to go, it’s very possible that this deal weighs down the Ducks when they’re ready to compete. It’s a bad contract.
MMC
Global Moderator
WhatTheDuck
9 - 20 - 8
A bit surprised no one grabbed Carpenter, mostly just because there seems to be a lot of injuries around the league. He's at least shown he can play on the league, figured someone would need the depth.
The rest make sense, Rooney due to contract, Benson being unproven and Kaut being waived by a team with its depth destroyed by injury.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Down Goes Brown: Putting J.T. Miller's contract on trial in the return of NHL cap court
It’s worth digging into some of these deals to see whether they're indeed bad contracts — as viewed from the team's perspective.
John Gibson, Ducks
The details: Gibson is 29 and has this season and four more after it left on a deal that carries a $6.4 million cap hit.
The case that it’s a bad contract: From his rookie season through his fourth year, Gibson was one of the better goalies in the league, posting a .922 save percentage. That was a long time ago, though, and in the four seasons since his numbers have flatlined down to just north of a .900 save percentage. That’s a big enough sample size that we can stop waiting for Gibson to regain his form and just accept that he’s now an average goaltender at best. For a guy with the third-highest cap hit among active goalies, that’s nowhere near good enough.
The case that it might be OK: While it’s technically true that Gibson’s cap hit ranks third among active goalies, that’s a little misleading — the two guys ahead of him (Sergei Bobrovsky and Andrei Vasilevskiy) are way ahead, and then comes a batch of nine guys between $6.4 million and $5.4 million. Gibson leads that group, sure, but not by much, so it’s really more accurate to say he’s lumped into a large-ish tier.
Still, his numbers aren’t great, and there’s no real case that you’d sign this contract again in hindsight. This year, Gibson is on pace for what would be the worst season of his career statistically, and is barely keeping his goals-against average below 4.00. But when you look at the team in front of him, that feels inevitable. The Ducks stink. Maybe instead of viewing Gibson’s deal as the Ducks paying for elite goaltending they’re not getting, we see it as them paying a premium for a veteran who can handle getting shelled while the team’s young core develops.
Key witnesses: That cohort of guys in the $6 million range includes some questionable contracts like the ones given to Matt Murray, Philipp Grubauer and Elvis Merzlikins. It also includes deals signed by Igor Shesterkin and Connor Hellebuyck. As always, goalies are all over the map.
The verdict: I don’t think Gibson is as bad as his numbers would indicate, but there’s no way you can spin his results into being worthy of a top-tier contract at this point. If there was one or two years left, maybe you shrug it off as a bad-defense tax. But with four full seasons to go, it’s very possible that this deal weighs down the Ducks when they’re ready to compete. It’s a bad contract.
This is an eye-opening article. Is Gibby's $6.5 mil a year a huge detriment and in the same stratosphere as the elite goaltenders?
Sportrac top Goalie cap hits
1. Price, MTL = $10.5 mil
2. Bobrovsky, FLA = $10 mil
3. Vasilevskiy, TB = $9.5 mil
4. Gibson, ANA = $6.5 mil
5. Murray, TOR = $6.25 mil
6. Hellebuyck, WPG = $6.17 mil
7. Markstrom, CGY = $6.00 mil
7. Binnington, StL = $6.00 mil
9. Grubauer, Sea = $ 5.90 mil
Gibby's salary isn't that bad and it's locked in at that price for the next four seasons.
We've seen the games and noticed how many non-goals that should have been goals if it weren't for Gibby. The team would be far worse. With little to no help in front of him, Gibby is probably carrying the brunt of the rebuild weight.
Shots Against
1. Gibby, ANA; 20 games = 710
2. Hellebuyck, WPG: 20 games = 665
3. Hart, PHI: 20 games = 621
4. Thompson, VGK: 19 games = 620
5. Shesterkin, NYR: 20 games = 595
PP Goals Against
ANA = 32 ppga
WPG = 11 ppga
PHI = 22 ppga
VGK = 20 ppga
NYR = 18 ppga
Anaheim has the league's worst PPGA allowed. To prove the team in front of Gibby is terrible, last year's team only gave up 10 ppga in the first 27 games of the season.
To add context, since game 9, the Ducks have been involved in 11 one-goal game results and two EN situations. All our goalies can do is to try to keep the games close to help manufacture a win.
While I think Gibby can be better and consistently better in years past, riding him now and into the near future at $6.5 mil looks like a good price to pay, especially when Dostal will still be making peanuts while adapting to NHL play for the next few seasons.
Deuce22
Registered User
I think the problem is that Ducks are devoting $6.5M to a goalie and are the worst team in the league. That money is being wasted when contention is far away. The article categorized Gibson as an average goalie. We can differ with that, but the fact remains that his play isn't lifting the team above Lotteryville.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Is it being wasted? Before signing Klingberg, we were far below the salary cap floor. We're getting far more from Gibby than $7 mil Klingberg. We're probably not going to retain Klingberg after this season. After the 2023-24 season, both Rico ($5.825) and Silf's ($5.25) contracts won't be on the books. Gibby's $6.5 mil cap has its purpose.
We are the worst in the league because we're lacking talent depth at forward and talent at the blueline. We are in a lot of games because of our netminders, especially Gibby. Verbeek is going to abuse Gibby while filtering through at least two more seasons worth of youths, especially on the blue line.
Goal Differential per Game, 2022-23
Looking only at our record doesn't show the progress the team's made with the lemons Verbeek provided. We're in a rebuild, but people often forget that.
Deuce22
Registered User
Gibson makes the team better, but so what? Unless you think that Ducks will be a contender before Gibson's term runs out, his $6.5M cap hit serves no purpose.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Again, his cap hit serves the cap floor purpose. We're going to be cycling in a lot of prospects in the next two seasons who are all on ELC's.
Deuce22
Registered User
True, but I’d like to see that money spent on players who better fit the contending window.
mightyquack
eggplant and jade or bust
- Apr 28, 2010
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The Gulls actually have a worse record then the Ducks somehow
And really, Zegras and MacTavish need to be in the NHL right now for their development anyway.
Hamilton Bulldogs
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- Jan 11, 2022
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We all know this team is bad, and the poor coaching makes it even worse. When they are competing hard and try you get games like Tuesday where they can pull out a win against a tough team, but when they are playing poorly and look disinterested you get results like last night.
Good constructed and coached teams, can get away with playing poorly and still get a win. This team has to play to near perfection, make almost everything go right for them, while the other team shits the bed for them to win, and they cannot even do it in regulation.
That is how I would sum up this team.
Good constructed and coached teams, can get away with playing poorly and still get a win. This team has to play to near perfection, make almost everything go right for them, while the other team shits the bed for them to win, and they cannot even do it in regulation.
That is how I would sum up this team.
Yeah they do, largely due to us having so many holes. Two three kids that can learn and develop would help San Diego and hopefully help the kids “simmer longer”The Gulls actually have a worse record then the Ducks somehow
And really, Zegras and MacTavish need to be in the NHL right now for their development anyway.
MMC
Global Moderator
So either the team is underperforming or the models were WAY off.
I think the Ducks have a mediocre roster that is being terribly coached. But even with a competent coach our ceiling would probably be middle of the road so as much as he drives me absolutely insane maybe Eakins should stay.
Deuce22
Registered User
He should stay if we want a top 3 pick. He should go if we want to develop our players properly.
MMC
Global Moderator
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Heh. Eakins said, "Very talented teams can get away with playing poor and get a win," last year when we started the season 2-4-3 (7 pts). Seven out of 9 games had 1-goal differential results and blown out once. When Eakins shortened the bench by keeping Zegras, Terry, and Drysdale off the ice in the end of games, the Ducks went on an 8-game winning streak. After 28 games, the team went 15-8-5 (35 pts).
Our roster is far worse this season than last season and we've been hit with a lot of injuries. If we don't play well, then we get blown out this year. In our first 9 games this season, we were 2-6-1 (5 pts), but only involved in three 1-goal game differentials and blown out three times. After 28 games, the team is 7-18-3 (17 pts).
I don't think many put enough weight in how terribly this roster construction is this season. I've shared the comparisons with the first 8-games and after 28-games from both seasons.
Special Teams Comp ===
| Ducks | Special | Teams | 28 games | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | 2021-22 | Advantage | 2022-23 | 2022-23 Rank |
| PPG | 20 |  | 12 | |
| PPO | 76 |  | 80 | |
| PP Eff | 26.3% | | 15.0% | 31st |
| . | ||||
| PK GA | 10 | | 33 | |
| TSH | 73 | | 99 | |
| PK Eff | 86.3% | | 66.7% | 31st |
I expected our PK unit to suck because we didn't acquire any top-4 shutdown defense. Asst coach Stothers is in charge of the PK unit.
Our PP is a massive disappointment because we added RW Strome, C Vatrano, D Klingberg, and C McTavish. Asst coach Brown is in charge of the PP unit. We did lose Asst coach Ward during the summer for personal reasons. The only coach that deserves blame for failing to perform to average is PP coach Brown b/c he's got the man advantage with a talented PP1 unit and an average PP2 unit.
Seeing how terrible our PP and PK units are, it does make one wonder how the Ducks manages wins. That's where you give Eakins credit.
I'm not saying Eakins is the coach of the future, but thinking one can make lemonade out of this roster is asking for miracles that even Miracle Max cannot do.
Heh. Eakins said, "Very talented teams can get away with playing poor and get a win," last year when we started the season 2-4-3 (7 pts). Seven out of 9 games had 1-goal differential results and blown out once. When Eakins shortened the bench by keeping Zegras, Terry, and Drysdale off the ice in the end of games, the Ducks went on an 8-game winning streak. After 28 games, the team went 15-8-5 (35 pts).
Our roster is far worse this season than last season and we've been hit with a lot of injuries. If we don't play well, then we get blown out this year. In our first 9 games this season, we were 2-6-1 (5 pts), but only involved in three 1-goal game differentials and blown out three times. After 28 games, the team is 7-18-3 (17 pts).
I don't think many put enough weight in how terribly this roster construction is this season. I've shared the comparisons with the first 8-games and after 28-games from both seasons.
Special Teams Comp ===
Ducks Special Teams 28 games . 2021-22 2022-23 2022-23 Rank PPG 20 12 PPO 76 80 PP Eff 26.3% 15.0% 31st . PK GA 10 33 TSH 73 99 PK Eff 86.3% 66.7% 31st
I expected our PK unit to suck because we didn't acquire any top-4 shutdown defense. Asst coach Stothers is in charge of the PK unit.
Our PP is a massive disappointment because we added RW Strome, C Vatrano, D Klingberg, and C McTavish. Asst coach Brown is in charge of the PP unit. We did lose Asst coach Ward during the summer for personal reasons. The only coach that deserves blame for failing to perform to average is PP coach Brown b/c he's got the man advantage with a talented PP1 unit and an average PP2 unit.
Seeing how terrible our PP and PK units are, it does make one wonder how the Ducks manages wins. That's where you give Eakins credit.
I'm not saying Eakins is the coach of the future, but thinking one can make lemonade out of this roster is asking for miracles that even Miracle Max cannot do.
Yeah I agree, I expected the PK do be dog poo, but thought the PP would be so much better. Since Fowler took that spot from Klingberg, think they are running closer to 20% which is a decent PP.
I also think Eakins should run a similar PP system like the Rangers. Instead of having a 1A and 1B unit, like the Ducks do, go with a 1st and 2nd unit. Meaning top unit gets 1:20-1:30 of PP time, unless they look totally out of whack then switch.
It’s been a real disappointment added some key players for the PP. Plus adding McTavish on top of the FA signings. Funny how all those FA acquisitions are not on the Top unit and it’s been looking a little better and producing somewhat the top unit.
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