2022/23 Roster Thread II: Worth Every Penny

[Hollywood Cannon]

Byram*

 

[Curufinwe]

Glorified 3rd/4th line tweener living off draft status

A lot of people say that about Frost, and I don't believe it is true about either of them.

It’s not a ridiculous statement. The time value of money (ie draft picks) is a pretty well accepted concept.

Preach.

Formula for Time Value of Money​

Depending on the exact situation, the formula for the time value of money may change slightly. For example, in the case of annuity or perpetuity payments, the generalized formula has additional or fewer factors. But in general, the most fundamental TVM formula takes into account the following variables:

• FV = Future value of money
• PV = Present value of money
• i = interest rate
• n = number of compounding periods per year
• t = number of years

Based on these variables, the formula for TVM is:


FV = PV x [ 1 + (i / n) ] (n x t)

 

[deadhead]

A lot of people say that about Frost, and I don't believe it is true about either of them.

There's a weird double standard with Frost and Tippett, both are the same age, both have struggled, both have shown flashes.
Both were sent down to the AHL where Tippett flat out dominated and Frost was OK.

Tippett
2019-20 (20 years old): 46g 19-21 40 (12-14 26 at ES)
2021-22 (22) 12g 6-12 18 (4-5 9 ES)

He hasn't translated that AHL success to the NHL yet, but he's substantially outperformed Frost at the AHL level.
And he was a very productive PP producer in the AHL, so it's reasonable they'll try him in that role in the NHL.

Both are disappointments so far, right now you can't reasonably project either to be a top 6 player without a significant jump in their play, but both are still on track to be solid middle six forwards - they're both only 23 this season.

Byram*

Who needs spell check, I've got HC.

 

[Curufinwe]

Frost missed an entire season with injury, but yes there is a double standard.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Those reports don't make any sense, though. Giroux is old and chasing a Cup, so why would he agree in advance to come back to Philly next season?

It makes tons of sense, if you can assume winning a Cup isn't his top desire. He could be happiest with keeping his family in Philly where they've always been, making good money with an org that's treated him well.

I can't say the report is dead-on, but it's certainly plausible a Cup isn't his only focus at this point in his life.

Telling him no was a rare good move by Chuck.

If Chuck did, I think it was a very silly move. The thought that we're going to use that money to try and sign Kadri to some wildly long deal instead of giving G a 3 year deal, bringing back a fan favorite (well, sort of), and having more assets in return...seems silly to me.

But I'm a huge Giroux fan, so it would've meant something for me personally (and from a competitive standpoint) to have him return.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

It makes tons of sense, if you can assume winning a Cup isn't his top desire. He could be happiest with keeping his family in Philly where they've always been, making good money with an org that's treated him well.

I can't say the report is dead-on, but it's certainly plausible a Cup isn't his only focus at this point in his life.



If Chuck did, I think it was a very silly move. The thought that we're going to use that money to try and sign Kadri to some wildly long deal instead of giving G a 3 year deal, bringing back a fan favorite (well, sort of), and having more assets in return...seems silly to me.

But I'm a huge Giroux fan, so it would've meant something for me personally (and from a competitive standpoint) to have him return.

The fact that we haven’t heard a peep about him returning to the team sure makes it seem like something happened during that time. It may not be exactly what was reported but seemingly something went on.

 

[TCTC]

It makes tons of sense, if you can assume winning a Cup isn't his top desire. He could be happiest with keeping his family in Philly where they've always been, making good money with an org that's treated him well.

I can't say the report is dead-on, but it's certainly plausible a Cup isn't his only focus at this point in his life.

There definitely were reports that Giroux rejected a move to Boston and the Rangers though and that he insisted on staying in the East. Didn't leave many options.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

It makes tons of sense, if you can assume winning a Cup isn't his top desire. He could be happiest with keeping his family in Philly where they've always been, making good money with an org that's treated him well.

I can't say the report is dead-on, but it's certainly plausible a Cup isn't his only focus at this point in his life.



If Chuck did, I think it was a very silly move. The thought that we're going to use that money to try and sign Kadri to some wildly long deal instead of giving G a 3 year deal, bringing back a fan favorite (well, sort of), and having more assets in return...seems silly to me.

But I'm a huge Giroux fan, so it would've meant something for me personally (and from a competitive standpoint) to have him return.

Silly to you not me. Giroux has run its course in Philly. Time to turn the page. I am sure you and many others feel differently.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Lol, trading the best player in franchise history for a B prospect and an asset that is "not as valuable right now, but the value will only increase over time [3 to 4 years]" is a f***ing joke and Fletcher is a joke and this organization is a joke

Fletcher made a basketball style trade, except he only got one first round pick. Any way you slice it, it's a fleece. A Fletcher special. Nevermind Fletcher's grimey koala brain is the main reason the team was in a position that forced a Giroux trade in the first place.

Has Fletcher ever outright won a trade?

 

[deadhead]

G's money went to Couts and Farabee.

It would be foolish to bring G back on a 3x7 deal, he's a complementary player, not a game changer, at this point in his career.
It would also be foolish to trade serious assets for DeBrincat and give him a huge deal for the same reason.

If they're going to add a LW (and give up on Lindblom, which I think is a bad idea), it should be a cost controlled, under 25 player with upside.
If they're going to commit serious resources, it should be for a 2C with upside under 25.

But I think Fletcher won't do anything until he sees who falls to them in the draft.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Has Fletcher ever outright won a trade?

Not here. That's for sure.

There definitely were reports that Giroux rejected a move to Boston and the Rangers though and that he insisted on staying in the East. Didn't leave many options.

But that lines up with the report that G would block anything if Fletch didn't agree to bring him back (which he didn't of course). You're basically reinforcing the report, right?

Silly to you not me. Giroux has run its course in Philly. Time to turn the page. I am sure you and many others feel differently.

That's fine. It wasn't an awful decision to tell G no, but since I know this team isn't competing - why not have Giroux back to entertain the fans as we rebuild?

But again: that's me speaking as someone who knows we're nowhere close. Fletch doesn't feel the same.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Silly to you not me. Giroux has run its course in Philly. Time to turn the page. I am sure you and many others feel differently.

Whether or not that is true is irrelevant. Fletcher's inability to get any value out of him is relevant and will remain relevant for as long as he exists in this organization, because it's part of the overall trend spanning his entire career where he never gets good value for anything.

 

[Beef Invictus]

G's money went to Couts and Farabee.

It would be foolish to bring G back on a 3x7 deal, he's a complementary player, not a game changer, at this point in his career.
It would also be foolish to trade serious assets for DeBrincat and give him a huge deal for the same reason.

If they're going to add a LW (and give up on Lindblom, which I think is a bad idea), it should be a cost controlled, under 25 player with upside.
If they're going to commit serious resources, it should be for a 2C with upside under 25.

But I think Fletcher won't do anything until he sees who falls to them in the draft.

Nah. The money for Couturier was already earmarked. They didn't need to make space for him.

His money is going to ensure Ristolainen could stay. You know, that player Fletcher has adored and overvalued for years.

 

[deadhead]

A lot of people say that about Frost, and I don't believe it is true about either of them.



Preach.

Formula for Time Value of Money​

Depending on the exact situation, the formula for the time value of money may change slightly. For example, in the case of annuity or perpetuity payments, the generalized formula has additional or fewer factors. But in general, the most fundamental TVM formula takes into account the following variables:

• FV = Future value of money
• PV = Present value of money
• i = interest rate
• n = number of compounding periods per year
• t = number of years

Based on these variables, the formula for TVM is:


FV = PV x [ 1 + (i / n) ] (n x t)

The time value of money depends on the discount rate, and the discount rate depends on the context of the decision.

The discount rate is high for a GM trying to win now, where the player won't arrive until the GM is probably gone, whereas if a team is rebuilding/reloading, the discount rate is much lower. Accumulating future assets provides optionality a couple years down the road (draft a player or trade the pick).

 

[Beef Invictus]

But a 2022 1st wouldn't have made it a great return either. Giroux had a NMC, so there really wasn't a chance to have a bidding war for his rights.

Well, especially because Fletcher decided not to have one.

 

[Beef Invictus]

There's a weird double standard with Frost and Tippett, both are the same age, both have struggled, both have shown flashes.
Both were sent down to the AHL where Tippett flat out dominated and Frost was OK.

Tippett
2019-20 (20 years old): 46g 19-21 40 (12-14 26 at ES)
2021-22 (22) 12g 6-12 18 (4-5 9 ES)

He hasn't translated that AHL success to the NHL yet, but he's substantially outperformed Frost at the AHL level.
And he was a very productive PP producer in the AHL, so it's reasonable they'll try him in that role in the NHL.

Both are disappointments so far, right now you can't reasonably project either to be a top 6 player without a significant jump in their play, but both are still on track to be solid middle six forwards - they're both only 23 this season.


Who needs spell check, I've got HC.

Oh, you're comparing players across teams without context again.

Maybe this will be the first time it works for you.

 

[Psuhockey]

Well it’s also a top 10 protected pick in 2024 so… it’s not turning into a Bo Byram in that he was a 4th overall pick (via the Sens).

It’s not a ridiculous statement. The time value of money (ie draft picks) is a pretty well accepted concept.

It’s protected in 24 and not 25 so it could turn into a top 10.

The value of money and the value of 1st round drafts is not the same at all. 1st round draft picks are a fixed asset not subject to inflationary influences unless the league decides to expand in the next few years or add compensatory 1st round picks. For a current GM the current 2nd may have a faster return on investment but that doesn’t change the likelihood of success on a 2nd rd pick versus a 1st round pick. That’s something a smart stable club could take advantage of by pushing for higher draft compensation in the future instead of a lower value asset in the present because GMs in the NHL especially don’t think more than a season or two down the line.

 

[TCTC]

Even if Giroux does return, how many more years could we realistically get out of him before he becomes a problem? He'll be 35 this season.
I rather remember him as one of the best players in the history of this franchise than the next Joe Thornton who should've retired years ago.

 

[Beef Invictus]

It’s protected in 24 and not 25 so it could turn into a top 10.

The value of money and the value of 1st round drafts is not the same at all. 1st round draft picks are a fixed asset not subject to inflationary influences unless the league decides to expand in the next few years or add compensatory 1st round picks. For a current GM the current 2nd may have a faster return on investment but that doesn’t change the likelihood of success on a 2nd rd pick versus a 1st round pick. That’s something a smart stable club could take advantage of by pushing for higher draft compensation in the future instead of a lower value asset in the present because GMs in the NHL especially don’t think more than a season or two down the line.

Zito has shown too much competence for Florida to collapse like that with their core.

 

[DancingPanther]

Not here. That's for sure.



But that lines up with the report that G would block anything if Fletch didn't agree to bring him back (which he didn't of course). You're basically reinforcing the report, right?


That's fine. It wasn't an awful decision to tell G no, but since I know this team isn't competing - why not have Giroux back to entertain the fans as we rebuild?

But again: that's me speaking as someone who knows we're nowhere close. Fletch doesn't feel the same.

Fletch doesn't *know anything

It’s protected in 24 and not 25 so it could turn into a top 10.

The value of money and the value of 1st round drafts is not the same at all. 1st round draft picks are a fixed asset not subject to inflationary influences unless the league decides to expand in the next few years or add compensatory 1st round picks. For a current GM the current 2nd may have a faster return on investment but that doesn’t change the likelihood of success on a 2nd rd pick versus a 1st round pick. That’s something a smart stable club could take advantage of by pushing for higher draft compensation in the future instead of a lower value asset in the present because GMs in the NHL especially don’t think more than a season or two down the line.

You really think the Panthers will be a bad team in 3 seasons?

 

[ajgoal]

You really think the Panthers will be a bad team in 3 seasons?

Not even three. You have to project them to have a top ten after just two more seasons in order to get that 2025 pick. Of course anything can happen, injuries etc, but the idea of the Panthers at this stage having two bad seasons in a row seems unlikely.

 

[kudymen]

World: agrees that money possesses (assets possess) varying value in time
GM: agrees that his team "lacks top end talent"
Same GM: agrees to push arguably main asset from a big trade - an asset usable to land top end talent at that! - further to the future (2023 or 2024)

woooo

 

[deadhead]

Zito has shown too much competence for Florida to collapse like that with their core.

Really. B/c his success so far isn't that impressive, 2 1st rd exits, 1 2nd rd exit.

Now they face a serious cap crunch after trading away their 2022, 2023 and 2024 1st rd picks, plus their 2022 2rd and 2023 3rd and 2024 2nd. Talk about mortgaging the future.

They have $3M in cap room with G, Accari, Marchment, Chariot, Nutivaara and Hagg all UFAs this summer. Loustarenin is a RFA.
Next year they'll have $28M in cap room, but Huberdeau and Weegar are UFAs.

Wheeler ranked their talent pipeline at #23 in January, they since traded #8 Smilanic.

And Zito just hired Maurice as his HC.

We'll find out how good Zito is the next two years.

 

[Psuhockey]

Fletch doesn't *know anything


You really think the Panthers will be a bad team in 3 seasons?

Odds are no but it’s possible. Barkov and Ekblad will be nearing 30 and have already shown they have trouble staying healthy, Huberdeau will be 32 and Reinhart is a UFA in 2 seasons. The most likely best case scenario for the Flyers is a repeat of what St Louis went though when they got the Farabee pick.

 

[Diaper Mask Bandits]

Neither Frost or Tippet are going to amount to diddly poo. So, I don't see the point in arguing over one or the other.