2022/23 Roster Thread II: Worth Every Penny

[BrindamoursNose]

Patrick aside, I disagree. None of them really developed much at all at the NHL level thanks to the hilariously bad coaching and player development model.

I dunno man, Nic Aube Kubel just never had *it* to succeed in the first place

 

[TCTC]

Little known fact... the Flyers have missed the playoffs six times (and acted as cannon fodder 2-3 other times) in the last ten seasons. The Avalanche during their decade of sucking which i'll say for argument sake is from 08/09 to 17/18 saw them miss the playoffs seven times.

How did the Avalanche follow up that decade? Three second round losses, a President's Trophy, and a Stanley Cup in the next four years.

Now we wait and see how the Flyers follow up that decade of sucking... i'm sure we'll see similar results starting this season.

The Flyers did suck for a decade and they have borne no fruit for it.

The Avs also were fortunate to suck at the right time. 1st OA in 2013 (MacKinnon) would've been Yakupov in 2012. 4th OA in 2017 (Makar) would've been Jesse Puljujarvi in 2016.
Joe Sakic has made some really good moves, but that team wasn't contructed by pure genius.

Patrick aside, I disagree. None of them really developed much at all at the NHL level thanks to the hilariously bad coaching and player development model.

Coaching didn't help, fo sure. But I don't think even Jon Cooper would've made that group a contender.

 

[deadhead]

Hextall drafted very reasonably on the whole when looking at the archetypes he seeked. The problem wasn't the drafting, it was...well every step of development after that. Every single one. Absolute trainwreck of what were a promising group of D/D+1/D+2 players

It still is, of course, but Fletcher is a worse drafter. Hooray

Who was a promising D+2 player who didn't turn into a good NHL player?
Myers, Patrick and ???

Guys like Kase, Rubtsov, Bunnaman, Twarynski, etc. were meh, problem is none even developed into 4th line scrubs.

Patrick aside, I disagree. None of them really developed much at all at the NHL level thanks to the hilariously bad coaching and player development model.

None of them developed after they left either.

Remember Nashville proclaiming Myers was badly coached, then after a year they're ready to discard him - maybe the problem wasn't coaching but the player since the best team at coaching up D-men couldn't do squat with him.

I think the bigger issue has been the inability to identify hidden gems at the pro level, it's not so much that the Flyers have hemorrhaged talent, but they haven't found much on the margin. They found Read in college a decade ago, picked up PEB from Europe, and that's about it. They also don't trade for young players as a general rule.

If you can't find players outside your organization, you'd better be brilliant at drafting, while better development could help, I don't think there's any coach who can give Bunnaman a set of hands.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

The Avs also were fortunate to suck at the right time. 1st OA in 2013 (MacKinnon) would've been Yakupov in 2012. 4th OA in 2017 (Makar) would've been Jesse Puljujarvi in 2016.
Joe Sakic has made some really good moves, but that team wasn't contructed by pure genius.

No one said that it was. But the constant notion that the Avalanche sucked for a decade while the Flyers have not is absurd as always.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I don't think that's obvious. That's just an assumption.

No, it is obvious. The hockeyworld consensus, from the stats people to the old-school people, all agreed our prospect pool was great. Then the Flyers got the minimum out of it thanks to bad development processes which are also readily on display, and which they are proud of. Gotta pound the "cute" out! We've got Clarke giddy at the possibility of Torts maximizing pointless adversity!

It's really obvious. They make it obvious. They've been open about it for years. One been calling them out for it going back to early Hextall, and I have been right.

 

[Beef Invictus]

No one said that it was. But the constant notion that the Avalanche sucked for a decade while the Flyers have not is absurd as always.

People worry about us being the Avs when we are already a combination of Buffalo and Edmonton.

 

[deadhead]

No one said that it was. But the constant notion that the Avalanche sucked for a decade while the Flyers have not is absurd as always.

When the Avs sucked, they really sucked, the Flyers problem was consistent mediocrity.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Many had the Flyers as the top, or one of the top pools in the league for a ~3 year stretch. Now even if that was off a bit, it doesn't equate to what happened without a serious organizational flaw. Hextall contributed to it with his preference for coaches and overly-patient approach with prospects not named Ivan, but he also wasn't allowed to see his "process" through because the organization itself got inpatient. New GM comes in with a mandate to win. Prospects drafted by a different regime suddenly aren't the focus anymore. Some get weeded out and now contribute for other NHL teams. The New GM hires people who don't have an understanding of the modern game. One thing leads to another...you are the 4th worst team in the league in a year you were supposed to contend.

Is there a better example of organizational incompetence than Travis Sanheim not getting regular PP time in the NHL after what he did in the WHL?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Who was a promising D+2 player who didn't turn into a good NHL player?
Myers, Patrick and ???

Guys like Kase, Rubtsov, Bunnaman, Twarynski, etc. were meh, problem is none even developed into 4th line scrubs.

D+2 was the year Rubtsov seemingly got back on track in Acadie-Bathurst. I’m not getting involved in the larger point, but it’s weird to list him in this when it was the one point in time he seemed reoriented.

Many had the Flyers as the top, or one of the top pools in the league for a ~3 year stretch. Now even if that was off a bit, it doesn't equate to what happened without a serious organizational flaw. Hextall contributed to it with his preference for coaches and overly-patient approach with prospects not named Ivan, but he also wasn't allowed to see his "process" through because the organization itself got inpatient. New GM comes in with a mandate to win. Prospects drafted by a different regime suddenly aren't the focus anymore. Some get weeded out and now contribute for other NHL teams. The New GM hires people who don't have an understanding of the modern game. One thing leads to another...you are the 4th worst team in the league in a year you were supposed to contend.

One thing to add here is that they were top 3 because of depth, not a star prospect. That moves your probability sliders significantly when discussing a mass casualty outcome.

 

[Beef Invictus]

When the Avs sucked, they really sucked, the Flyers problem was consistent mediocrity.

They're not even consistently mediocre anymore.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Many had the Flyers as the top, or one of the top pools in the league for a ~3 year stretch. Now even if that was off a bit, it doesn't equate to what happened without a serious organizational flaw. Hextall contributed to it with his preference for coaches and overly-patient approach with prospects not named Ivan, but he also wasn't allowed to see his "process" through because the organization itself got inpatient. New GM comes in with a mandate to win. Prospects drafted by a different regime suddenly aren't the focus anymore. Some get weeded out and now contribute for other NHL teams. The New GM hires people who don't have an understanding of the modern game. One thing leads to another...you are the 4th worst team in the league in a year you were supposed to contend.

Is there a better example of organizational incompetence than Travis Sanheim not getting regular PP time in the NHL despite his WHL resume?

How could the players do this!?!?!

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

When the Avs sucked, they really sucked, the Flyers problem was consistent mediocrity.

And yet the suckiness arrived all the same.

It's why the people that are opining for the team to do what they can to try and compete and turn this thing around instead are so wrong. They've morphed what people are saying through disingenuous means in that they say that people want the organization to go into full fledged tear everything down tanking mode when in reality we just want them to not do anything stupid that will effect the future even more than they already have. The Flyers at this moment are likely in a worse position than any of those Avalanche teams and that's after a decade of their own suckiness.

 

[deadhead]

No, it is obvious. The hockeyworld consensus, from the stats people to the old-school people, all agreed our prospect pool was great. Then the Flyers got the minimum out of it thanks to bad development processes which are also readily on display, and which they are proud of. Gotta pound the "cute" out! We've got Clarke giddy at the possibility of Torts maximizing pointless adversity!

It's really obvious. They make it obvious. They've been open about it for years. One been calling them out for it going back to early Hextall, and I have been right.

Those evaluations were slanted by draft position, 8 1sts, 6 2nd rd picks in five years ought to be a great group!

Of the 8 1sts, Provorov, Sanheim, Farabee and TK lived up to their draft position, Patrick, Rubtsov, JOB are flops (unless JOB has a miracle turnaround), jury is still out on Frost
Of the 6 2nds, Hart has emerged, NAK is a marginal 4RW who was benched in Colorado, Allison is injury prone, Laberge and Ginning flops, Ratcliffe jury is still out.

Who was killed by development? No one. Patrick literally a head case, Rubtsov, Laberge, Ginning, JOB all failed before they joined the organization, Allison's injuries are bad luck, Ratcliffe was always a project, Frost would have started at 21 but got injured.

Outside the first two rounds, they found Lindblom and now N Cates, Myers started, Zamala should get a shot this year,Laczynski got injured or he'd probably be the 4C. Fedotov KHL and Lycksell SHL haven't joined the organization yet.

 

[FLYguy3911]

One thing to add here is that they were top 3 because of depth, not a star prospect. That moves your probability sliders significantly.

Many had Provorov as the second coming and future Norris winner, but yes it was hard to argue that there was a deeper farm. And when so many "miss" it's hard to put the blame all on scouting. The good orgs consistently hit the high% outcomes of their players. *Tampa*

 

[Appleyard]

I cant begin to tell you the trauma though of your favourite team losing the title THREE times in your lifetime mainly due to the weather. As happened to Lancashire in cricket.

2000
2003
2006

Lost just 4 in 48 games over those three seasons did Lancashire.
While winners each year combined for 8 losses.

But sooo many draws as so much rain.

Watching the skies and checking the forecast just HOPING that the sun comes out and knowing if it does not the trophy slips away.

Hilariously when they won in 2011 the main ground at Manchester was being renovated so they played at their second ground in Liverpool... which has better weather... so only drew two games!

 

[Beef Invictus]

Those evaluations were slanted by draft position, 8 1sts, 6 2nd rd picks in five years ought to be a great group!

Of the 8 1sts, Provorov, Sanheim, Farabee and TK lived up to their draft position, Patrick, Rubtsov, JOB are flops (unless JOB has a miracle turnaround), jury is still out on Frost
Of the 6 2nds, Hart has emerged, NAK is a marginal 4RW who was benched in Colorado, Allison is injury prone, Laberge and Ginning flops, Ratcliffe jury is still out.

Who was killed by development? No one. Patrick literally a head case, Rubtsov, Laberge, Ginning, JOB all failed before they joined the organization, Allison's injuries are bad luck, Ratcliffe was always a project, Frost would have started at 21 but got injured.

Outside the first two rounds, they found Lindblom and now N Cates, Myers started, Zamala should get a shot this year,Laczynski got injured or he'd probably be the 4C. Fedotov KHL and Lycksell SHL haven't joined the organization yet.

Those evaluations remained true while accounting for post draft performance.

You don't whiff as badly as the Flyers did without them doing something egregiously wrong. Like say, punishing skill and initiative and emphasizing far less important "safe" skills while trying to cram Prospects into specific limiting roles that rarely matched skillset.

You don't fail this thoroughly and this consistently by chance.

 

[Beef Invictus]

And yet the suckiness arrived all the same.

It's why the people that are opining for the team to do what they can to try and compete and turn this thing around instead are so wrong. They've morphed what people are saying through disingenuous means in that they say that people want the organization to go into full fledged tear everything down tanking mode when in reality we just want them to not do anything stupid that will effect the future even more than they already have. The Flyers at this moment are likely in a worse position than any of those Avalanche teams and that's after a decade of their own suckiness.

Right? The team has already been torn down on accident. At this point just stay the course and also overhaul every single aspect of management. That's all it takes.

 

[BiggE]

The structure was flawed under Hextall and has only gotten significantly worse under Cuck.

Hextall needed to just bite the bullet and blow it up by 2015. He hung on to valuable trade chips like Simmonds and Voracek way too long. His draft record was ok, but, as so many have pointed out, the developmental part of the equation failed miserably. He also did himself no favors with his management style.

Cuck is certainly a much better suck up than Hextall and I think his drafts, so far, have been ok, but on every other level he’s been a tsunami of incompetence. His big coaching hire was a narcissistic failure, his biggest FA signing is a brain dead puck hog who was signed for too many years at too high a cap hit. And, as bad as Hayes is, he’s the second coming of Jean Beliveau when compared to utter train wreck that is Risto.

The entire organization needs an enema or a “for sale” sign hung on the door.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Many had Provorov as the second coming and future Norris winner, but yes it was hard to argue that there was a deeper farm. And when so many "miss" it's hard to put the blame all on scouting. The good orgs consistently hit the high% outcomes of their players. *Tampa*

My memory was of Provy being the #1 D, but not hitting the top 5 or anything. Of course I had to go check it out. On lists like Button's, he did get to #4 in his D+1 before Matthews and Laine kicked everyone down. The only other D in the top 10 at that point was Werenski at 9.

Man, I did not remember Nylander being the #1 affiliated prospect on those lists. Even reading it back now, it doesn't ring a bell.

 

[Beef Invictus]

My memory was of Provy being the #1 D, but not hitting the top 5 or anything. Of course I had to go check it out. On lists like Button's, he did get to #4 in his D+1 before Matthews and Laine kicked everyone down. The only other D in the top 10 at that point was Werenski at 9.

Man, I did not remember Nylander being the #1 affiliated prospect on those lists. Even reading it back now, it doesn't ring a bell.

Nylander was the Toronto Media/Fan Hype effect.

I cant take any ranking of Toronto prospects (and often players, hello Phaneuf) seriously because that kind of thing happens constantly. Nylander was heavily hyped and the average person outside the Toronto orbit went "why?"

 

[Ghosts Beer]

There was healthy pre-draft debate about Provorov vs. Werenski as the better D prospect. Indeed, they went 7 & 8 overall. I would imagine at least as many teams had Werenski above Provorov as vice versa.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

 

[deadhead]

Still waiting for actual examples of players with great D+1, D+2 performances who flopped due to lousy development.
The only player who fit this are Myers (we now know it's an IQ issue if Nashville can't fix him), Patrick (injuries), Frost (injuries).

The other players who failed to develop were meh before they got to the Flyers, while development didn't perform any miracles, it didn't deep six prospects either.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

(we now know it's an IQ issue if Nashville can't fix him)

This is the weirdest possible stance. Forget hockey development or Phil Myers or the Flyers. That’s not how time works.

 

[deadhead]

D+2 was the year Rubtsov seemingly got back on track in Acadie-Bathurst. I’m not getting involved in the larger point, but it’s weird to list him in this when it was the one point in time he seemed reoriented.

One thing to add here is that they were top 3 because of depth, not a star prospect. That moves your probability sliders significantly when discussing a mass casualty outcome.

D+2, 49g 15-28 43, PO 19g 5-5 10
That's the profile of a mid-round pick at best.
Hard to blame him as a development casualty, injuries to some extent but something was missing.

The depth was illusionary, too many turned out to be AHL players, hardly even AHL plus.
Strangely enough, a number of Hextall picks that weren't considered top prospects may end up outperforming the highly rated ones.