2022/23 Roster Thread II: Worth Every Penny

[flyersnorth]

Yes, But the odds that things will work out that way are low.
With the lottery, it's hard to get those #1 picks.
And you still have to have MacKinnon, not Nico, be available.
And you need some luck, Makar fell to 4th.

Before Sakic, they took Duchenes #3 (traded for Byrum and Girard), Hishon #17, Landeskog #2, MacKinnon #1.
Under Sakic, Rantanen #10, Jost #10, Makar #4, Kaut #16, Newhook #16.
So you're gonna have your share of misses.

For sure you'll have misses.

Except that they didn't miss on a single one of their picks #1, #2, #3, and #4.

Flyers got Patrick (#2), Provorov (#7) and Couturier (#8).

The only real hit is Couturier.

So not only can you *not* miss on those high picks, you need to find elite players in there somewhere when you get the rare opportunity. We've failed to do that.

I'm not suggesting it's easy, but it's also a fact that our drafting record has been mediocre at best.

Turning among the best prospect groups into the worst over Fletcher's tenure is poor.

I'm not so sure it was that great to begin with.

 

[TCTC]

It's honestly one of the worst crops of "under 24" talent in the NHL.

Just about every other team has that group beat, except a few of the contenders that went all-in on winning the last few years like Toronto and Tampa Bay.

Missing Farabee and Hart though. Still not great, but at least there's a potential franchise goalie and top line forward.

 

[deadhead]

For sure you'll have misses.

Except that they didn't miss on a single one of their picks #1, #2, #3, and #4.

Flyers got Patrick (#2), Provorov (#7) and Couturier (#8).

The only real hit is Couturier.

So not only can you *not* miss on those high picks, you need to find elite players in there somewhere when you get the rare opportunity. We've failed to do that.

I'm not suggesting it's easy, but it's also a fact that our drafting record has been mediocre at best.



I'm not so sure it was that great to begin with.

Patrick has been the killer for this organization, hitting on TK and Sanheim balances missing on Rubtsov and JOB, but you don't get that many high picks (unless you suck for a decade).

Imagine a different universe where Patrick is the player they thought they were drafting (40-50 ES points two way 2C), and Lindblom doesn't get cancer - your second line is Lindblom - Patrick - TK, you never sign Hayes, and so on.

They need to hit on a couple top ten picks, one this year, maybe one next year.

Most of their prospects just have to be solid middle six forwards or #3-5 D-men - they're not going to garner Colorado's elite group (neither will any other team, look at Jersey and Buffalo with all their high picks), but if you have sufficient depth, you can win with a couple "anchor" players and solid talent surrounding them.

 

[TCTC]

Turning among the best prospect groups into the worst over Fletcher's tenure is poor.

I think it's obvious now that the prospect pool under Hextall was overrated.

 

[deadhead]

Missing Farabee and Hart though. Still not great, but at least there's a potential franchise goalie and top line forward.

Fedotov is a wild card, he was dominant in the KHL playoffs (22g, .937 S%), and Russian goaltenders have a pretty good NHL track record.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think it's obvious now that the prospect pool under Hextall was overrated.

I think it's obvious now their development process ruined them

 

[deadhead]

I think it's obvious now that the prospect pool under Hextall was overrated.

Ironically, the higher picks were overrated, but we're now seeing a lot of later round picks who may emerge but were flying under the radar, due to college, injury, etc.
Allison, Laczynski, N Cates, Lycksell, Ratcliffe, Zamula, Hogberg, Fedotov, Sandstrom.
If just 2 or 3 end up as solid starters, Hextall's drafts look a lot better.

 

[DancingPanther]

I think it's obvious now that the prospect pool under Hextall was overrated.

Hextall drafted very reasonably on the whole when looking at the archetypes he seeked. The problem wasn't the drafting, it was...well every step of development after that. Every single one. Absolute trainwreck of what were a promising group of D/D+1/D+2 players

It still is, of course, but Fletcher is a worse drafter. Hooray

 

[deadhead]

I think it's obvious now their development process ruined them

Patrick, Rubtsov, Laberge, Vorobyev, Bunnaman, Twarynski, JOB, Kase, NAK, Myers, Friedman, Sushko.
Exactly how were they ruined by the development process?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Patrick, Rubtsov, Laberge, Vorobyev, Bunnaman, Twarynski, JOB, Kase, NAK, Myers, Friedman, Sushko.
Exactly how were they ruined by the development process?

All of them.

Even before Patrick's brain broke his skills were eroding. He was a better passer when he was drafted than he was when he finished his second season. That kind of skill erosion is common for all players of all ages. Player development is nonstop and affects players of all ages. The Flyers denigrate everyone.

 

[TheKingPin]

Yes, But the odds that things will work out that way are low.
With the lottery, it's hard to get those #1 picks.
And you still have to have MacKinnon, not Nico, be available.
And you need some luck, Makar fell to 4th.

Before Sakic, they took Duchenes #3 (traded for Byrum and Girard), Hishon #17, Landeskog #2, MacKinnon #1.
Under Sakic, Rantanen #10, Jost #10, Makar #4, Kaut #16, Newhook #16.
So you're gonna have your share of misses.

You have to try and time it like with the upcoming 2023 draft where the pool is thicker with hits. I don’t see an issue with the players they drafted. A lot of great talent. You don’t need to hit every time. You also don’t need to be as good as the Avs. They are president winners and about to take a run at their dynasty. It’s the goal, but you don’t have to have it that way. There won’t be another Makar for a long time anyway. And even if they didn’t get Makar and picked #3 they still win the cup this year IMO.

It's honestly one of the worst crops of "under 24" talent in the NHL.

Just about every other team has that group beat, except a few of the contenders that went all-in on winning the last few years like Toronto and Tampa Bay.

It has the potential to get a bump with the draft this year. Either taking a good player or trading back and getting 2 good players. Keep the picks and add for next year and we have made some group back up.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If you're still bitching about the JOB pick today, you're probably not prepared for what upside drafting looks like. It's not going down a consensus checklist.

 

[TheKingPin]

Patrick has been the killer for this organization, hitting on TK and Sanheim balances missing on Rubtsov and JOB, but you don't get that many high picks (unless you suck for a decade).

Imagine a different universe where Patrick is the player they thought they were drafting (40-50 ES points two way 2C), and Lindblom doesn't get cancer - your second line is Lindblom - Patrick - TK, you never sign Hayes, and so on.

They need to hit on a couple top ten picks, one this year, maybe one next year.

Most of their prospects just have to be solid middle six forwards or #3-5 D-men - they're not going to garner Colorado's elite group (neither will any other team, look at Jersey and Buffalo with all their high picks), but if you have sufficient depth, you can win with a couple "anchor" players and solid talent surrounding them.

It would help if Patrick was an actual NHL player. But he was never needed. It’s what made me think they had a great team coming They added a 1/2C prospect for nothing.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I think it's obvious now their development process ruined them

So the players are not accountable at all? It isn't all the developmental processes fault. Some just are not NHL level players. Drafting/development. Cant blame one with out the other.

Some players there is nothing there to develop.

 

[Beef Invictus]

So the players are not accountable at all? It isn't all the developmental processes fault. Some just are not NHL level players. Drafting/development. Cant blame one with out the other.

Some players there is nothing there to develop.

If the players aren't NHL level players then it's the team's fault for not recognizing that and moving them while they still have value.

If they've stuck with dead end players this long, it still points to a horrid and incompetent development process, as accurate player evaluation is part of that.

There is no way to that it isn't a total top to bottom failure that damages players of all ages, and it's gone on for an eternity.

 

[Beef Invictus]

We'll see.

They lack elite players but have far more young depth (I'll take this group over Vorobyev, Bunnaman, Kase, Rubtsov, et al) than they've had in a long time.

One reason Colorado needed so long to rebuild was a lousy record of finding talent after the 1st round, since 2010 the only Avs picks::
Butcher #123-2013 (salary dump to Buffalo), Timmins #32-2017 (traded with 2022 1st for Kuemper).
So Sakic had to trade picks for players, he did a very good job of it, by focusing on RFAs instead of older veterans.

If you can find and develop players after the 1st rd (see TB), then you just need to hit on a few top 1st rd picks and can use these "hidden gems" to put packages together to land better players. This is how you accelerate a rebuild so it doesn't take a decade.

You hyped up all those old prospects you now reject just as much as you hype up the current ones.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

If the players aren't NHL level players then it's the team's fault for not recognizing that and moving them while they still have value.

If they've stuck with dead end players this long, it still points to a horrid and incompetent development process, as accurate player evaluation is part of that.

There is no way to that it isn't a total top to bottom failure that damages players of all ages, and it's gone on for an eternity.

Yes it is the teams fault for drafting them. What value does a Bunnyman have? Every other team has numerous bunnyman types in their system. Draft at best a 4th line guy you will not get any value back.

People have higher expectation then they should when it comes to prospects. It is a high % that wont make than will. That is across the NHL not just a Flyers issue. If you get 2 per draft class to be in the NHL that is good I remember reading many years ago. Seems on these boards many think the opposite then place blame when that 5th rounder doesn't make the NHL.

Both the drafting and developing should be/have bene overhauled.

 

[TCTC]

Ironically, the higher picks were overrated, but we're now seeing a lot of later round picks who may emerge but were flying under the radar, due to college, injury, etc.
Allison, Laczynski, N Cates, Lycksell, Ratcliffe, Zamula, Hogberg, Fedotov, Sandstrom.
If just 2 or 3 end up as solid starters, Hextall's drafts look a lot better.

Would help our depth obviously, but that's kind of the least you expect when you accumulated so many draft picks. It doesn't look like Hextall found his Ondrej Palat though.

 

[Appleyard]

So there's hope! We have a good luck charm.

No something I believe in but I hope so aha.

Lancashire went 61 years (1950-2011) OR 77 years (1937-2011) between County Championship wins depending on what you count as a win... they shared the title in 1950 after being tied over 28 games! Was pretty epic to see them do it.
Eagles went 58 years (1960 to 2018) between Championship wins!
Man City went 44 years (1968 to 2012) between Top Tier Championship wins and 35 years (1976 to 2011) between Top Tier Cup wins. That had me in tiers.

Flyers at 48 years at a minimum now. Wonder if they go past the Eagles? If I were a betting man I would say yes.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yes it is the teams fault for drafting them. What value does a Bunnyman have? Every other team has numerous bunnyman types in their system. Draft at best a 4th line guy you will not get any value back.

People have higher expectation then they should when it comes to prospects. It is a high % that wont make than will. That is across the NHL not just a Flyers issue. If you get 2 per draft class to be in the NHL that is good I remember reading many years ago. Seems on these boards many think the opposite then place blame when that 5th rounder doesn't make the NHL.

Both the drafting and developing should be/have bene overhauled.

And when you combine that player with a dead end process, there's no chance they can even surprise you

 

[TCTC]

I think it's obvious now their development process ruined them

I don't think that's obvious. That's just an assumption.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Little known fact... the Flyers have missed the playoffs six times (and acted as cannon fodder 2-3 other times) in the last ten seasons. The Avalanche during their decade of sucking which i'll say for argument sake is from 08/09 to 17/18 saw them miss the playoffs seven times.

How did the Avalanche follow up that decade? Three second round losses, a President's Trophy, and a Stanley Cup in the next four years.

Now we wait and see how the Flyers follow up that decade of sucking... i'm sure we'll see similar results starting this season.

The Flyers did suck for a decade and they have borne no fruit for it.

 

[Rebels57]

Missing Farabee and Hart though. Still not great, but at least there's a potential franchise goalie and top line forward.

Those two do give it a big bump - but it's still in the bottom half of the league for sure

 

[deadhead]

Hextall drafted very reasonably on the whole when looking at the archetypes he seeked. The problem wasn't the drafting, it was...well every step of development after that. Every single one. Absolute trainwreck of what were a promising group of D/D+1/D+2 players

It still is, of course, but Fletcher is a worse drafter. Hooray

Who was a promising D+2 player who didn't turn into a good NHL player?
Myers, Patrick and ???

Guys like Kase, Rubtsov, Bunnaman, Twarynski, etc. were meh, problem is none even developed into 4th line scrubs.

 

[Rebels57]

I think it's obvious now that the prospect pool under Hextall was overrated.

Patrick aside, I disagree. None of them really developed much at all at the NHL level thanks to the hilariously bad coaching and player development model.