2022-23 Roster Discussion

[Mortimer Snerd]

i think it was one of the GDT where someone was mentioning harkins wasn't doing much. i remember checking the production, he with lowry this year have been pretty solid by the stats (shot attempts, goals for, xGF). id rather have Harkins in that spot than Saku M based on what they've shown this year. Actually, even now id rather have Harkins in the lineup than AJF or Gus.

Gus has been disappointing this year no doubt. But he has shown flashes of better before. I'm not ready to give up on him yet. But I think Stenlund has taken his job away, at least for now. He may need to spend some time in the PB while he waits for another opportunity.

Agree on Harkins. But it looks like he may need a change of scenery.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think sending Samberg down will help him. His underlying numbers this season have improved across the board. Yes he has the odd brain fart, but do you send him down and say work on not having a brain fart? This is the opposite argument used to keep Heinola up, that you need to learn and develop as a young defenseman against NHL competition. This isn't counting that he is becoming quite a good PKer, which has been an important part of our success.

Fair enough.
I'm just thinking that he could use a little time where the opposition gives him a little more time and space. I'm familiar with brainfarts and it is possible to learn to avoid reduce them. But it takes a conscious effort, not just doing the same things over and over.

The coaching part is just making sure he understands what he has done wrong.

 

[Jet]

Fair enough.
I'm just thinking that he could use a little time where the opposition gives him a little more time and space. I'm familiar with brainfarts and it is possible to learn to avoid reduce them. But it takes a conscious effort, not just doing the same things over and over.

The coaching part is just making sure he understands what he has done wrong.

I see lots of mistakes in Samberg's game, with the majority of them relatively harmless. He seems to be stifling with confidence and that is the number one reason to sit or send a young player down.

For me, the big issue is if you don't send him down you send ville down, and I think we are starting to see a bit of an emergence from him. Id hate to stunt that.

 

[voyageur]

i think it was one of the GDT where someone was mentioning harkins wasn't doing much. i remember checking the production, he with lowry this year have been pretty solid by the stats (shot attempts, goals for, xGF). id rather have Harkins in that spot than Saku M based on what they've shown this year. Actually, even now id rather have Harkins in the lineup than AJF or Gus.

It's interesting that Harkins and Eyssimont get demoted this week. I didn't think either were that bad. I kind of agree with your assessment of Harkins. But neither contribute to special teams, when the lineup is healthy. And that's an important thing in a Bowness lineup, he seems pretty committed to having players with identified roles. All the forwards who are still here have some kind of role with the team. Those couple of minutes on the PK may seem insignificant but as a fan I'm beyond elated that the Jets are finally a team that is hard to score against. A team that doesn't lose momentum with its PK. It's such a drastic turnover from last year where the 4th line of Harkins-Toninato-Svetchinikov or Vesalainen not only didn't get the job done 5 on 5, none of them did anything beyond 5 on 5 that contributed to team success. Toninato was on the PK, but I think it was identified early in this TC that he could be replaced with better personnel, and has been.

I think when it comes down to a player like Harkins vs. AJF that role is important. And the same thing would apply to Kuhlman now in the lineup instead of Eyssimont or Harkins. I saw a Bones press conference where he specifically talked about wingers playing their offside having a hard time with zone clears. And that was fundamentals, having to play pucks defensively on your backhand. I think that's why a player like Kuhlman is being given a bit of a leash. That and he hasn't been on the ice for a SH goal as Jet, and that's something I think is more valued than at any time in the new Jets history. All these guys doing the dirty work allow the top 6 forwards to do their job which is score, and not being gassed the way Maurice used to grind his stars has paid some dividends I think, in 5 on 5 play.

It's what has kept Gustafsson in the lineup in spite of mediocre 5 on 5 play. For a player like Maenalanen it's becoming clearer to me that Bowness values some physicality from his forwards, and Maenalanen is one of the most noticeable players in that aspect. Seems to me that message was given to Morgan Barron too, who had a strong game against Calgary.

 

[garret9]

What I find interesting is the Jets have demoted their 3rd highest CF% player and are about to demote their 4th. I think we both find a commonality in a disdain for the importance placed on this stat, and it tells me that there is more than that that coaches are tracking. Zone clears is one for sure that doesn't get mentioned, and I wonder what @garret9 would have to say about that.

Not to give away stuff I'm writing for thefivehohl but...

Harkins had good overall metrics in terms of how the team did with him on the ice (Corsi, xG, GAR, xGAR) but there are a few caveats...
1) It was a small sample
2) His good numbers were all from early on and he's been consistently bad since
3) His actual transitional numbers (tracked by me) REALLY stink (ie: he gives away the puck at the blue lines and in the dzone a lot)
4) His scoring chances and passes (tracked by me) aren't good either relative to his competition

My educated guess is that due to a combination of all these three things, Harkins was more of a benefactor of circumstance than actually driving the success. I think the Jets might think the same thing.

I don't really have this as any worry on Corsi because:
1) Corsi has a track record that one player or two doesn't change
2) The point of these metrics is how often they are right/wrong, because nothing and no one is 100%
3) There's a difference between good Corsi over long term and also good Corsi with also doing the micro stuff right (like zone exits, entries, and such) vs only good in short term but bad after, with bad transition stuff
4) Coaching and GM decisions are not always right and so they don't really prove anything

 

[surixon]

Not to give away stuff I'm writing for thefivehohl but...

Harkins had good overall metrics in terms of how the team did with him on the ice (Corsi, xG, GAR, xGAR) but there are a few caveats...
1) It was a small sample
2) His good numbers were all from early on and he's been consistently bad since
3) His actual transitional numbers (tracked by me) REALLY stink (ie: he gives away the puck at the blue lines and in the dzone a lot)
4) His scoring chances and passes (tracked by me) aren't good either relative to his competition

My educated guess is that due to a combination of all these three things, Harkins was more of a benefactor of circumstance than actually driving the success. I think the Jets might think the same thing.

Matches a lot of what I saw.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Not to give away stuff I'm writing for thefivehohl but...

Harkins had good overall metrics in terms of how the team did with him on the ice (Corsi, xG, GAR, xGAR) but there are a few caveats...
1) It was a small sample
2) His good numbers were all from early on and he's been consistently bad since
3) His actual transitional numbers (tracked by me) REALLY stink (ie: he gives away the puck at the blue lines and in the dzone a lot)
4) His scoring chances and passes (tracked by me) aren't good either relative to his competition

My educated guess is that due to a combination of all these three things, Harkins was more of a benefactor of circumstance than actually driving the success. I think the Jets might think the same thing.

I was going to say I hate when he skates the puck back to the blue line he tends to give it up quite a bit there.

 

[DRW204]

It's interesting that Harkins and Eyssimont get demoted this week. I didn't think either were that bad. I kind of agree with your assessment of Harkins. But neither contribute to special teams, when the lineup is healthy. And that's an important thing in a Bowness lineup, he seems pretty committed to having players with identified roles. All the forwards who are still here have some kind of role with the team. Those couple of minutes on the PK may seem insignificant but as a fan I'm beyond elated that the Jets are finally a team that is hard to score against. A team that doesn't lose momentum with its PK. It's such a drastic turnover from last year where the 4th line of Harkins-Toninato-Svetchinikov or Vesalainen not only didn't get the job done 5 on 5, none of them did anything beyond 5 on 5 that contributed to team success. Toninato was on the PK, but I think it was identified early in this TC that he could be replaced with better personnel, and has been.

I think when it comes down to a player like Harkins vs. AJF that role is important. And the same thing would apply to Kuhlman now in the lineup instead of Eyssimont or Harkins. I saw a Bones press conference where he specifically talked about wingers playing their offside having a hard time with zone clears. And that was fundamentals, having to play pucks defensively on your backhand. I think that's why a player like Kuhlman is being given a bit of a leash. That and he hasn't been on the ice for a SH goal as Jet, and that's something I think is more valued than at any time in the new Jets history. All these guys doing the dirty work allow the top 6 forwards to do their job which is score, and not being gassed the way Maurice used to grind his stars has paid some dividends I think, in 5 on 5 play.

It's what has kept Gustafsson in the lineup in spite of mediocre 5 on 5 play. For a player like Maenalanen it's becoming clearer to me that Bowness values some physicality from his forwards, and Maenalanen is one of the most noticeable players in that aspect. Seems to me that message was given to Morgan Barron too, who had a strong game against Calgary.

i dont think there's anything that AJF does on the PK, or really any part of the game that Harkins can't do. these are primarily 4th liners so i don't think it's worth a ton of key-strokes. just think harkins has been a bit better than most of these guys, not that the bar is high.

 

[SSCBLUEJET]

I can't find a GIF of Monty Burns wringing his hands in glee.
That's how I feel.
Release the hounds Smithers!

 

[gojetsgo]

 

[surixon]

Good luck to him in San Jose.

 

[DRW204]

Closer to his fan base in new Mexico.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Not to give away stuff I'm writing for thefivehohl but...

Harkins had good overall metrics in terms of how the team did with him on the ice (Corsi, xG, GAR, xGAR) but there are a few caveats...
1) It was a small sample
2) His good numbers were all from early on and he's been consistently bad since
3) His actual transitional numbers (tracked by me) REALLY stink (ie: he gives away the puck at the blue lines and in the dzone a lot)
4) His scoring chances and passes (tracked by me) aren't good either relative to his competition

My educated guess is that due to a combination of all these three things, Harkins was more of a benefactor of circumstance than actually driving the success. I think the Jets might think the same thing.

I don't really have this as any worry on Corsi because:
1) Corsi has a track record that one player or two doesn't change
2) The point of these metrics is how often they are right/wrong, because nothing and no one is 100%
3) There's a difference between good Corsi over long term and also good Corsi with also doing the micro stuff right (like zone exits, entries, and such) vs only good in short term but bad after, with bad transition stuff
4) Coaching and GM decisions are not always right and so they don't really prove anything

These two points were why I was so adamant he needed out of the top 9.

 

[jokesondee]

Closer to his fan base in new Mexico.

Pelle Lindbergh in Oregon??!?

 

[Adam da bomb]

what are our lines when healthy
SPW
Pce
Lba
Stenlund saks x
Who is x? Gagner?
Who gets waived?

Do Samberg and Heinola platoon and alternate games if not, I don’t like the idea of Heinola just sitting when he could be on Moose and brought up later.

 

[voyageur]

what are our lines when healthy
SPW
Pce
Lba
Stenlund saks x
Who is x? Gagner?
Who gets waived?

I don't think anyone gets waived now. Maenalanen coming back will send Heinola back to the Moose in all likelihood. I just don't see Samberg getting demoted...

Stanley coming back will put the Jets over the limit, but I suspect they take their time with him, and maybe put somebody on IR to keep the lineup from losing anyone.

Appleton was apparently 10-12 weeks away when injured. Nov. 16. 12 weeks puts him into mid February. I think you could probably stretch another week out of that, and then put him on a reconditioning stint to get him back after the trade deadline of March 3rd. At that point roster limits are not frozen to 23, but the Cap is still in effect, so I could see the Jets carrying as many as 27 players going into the playoffs, if say Heinola is promoted, and/or there is an acquisition or 2. That's definitely an advantage to having Cap space over some teams, building a bigger team with that space, in the final stretch.

The way I would see the forwards is

81-80-27
91-55-26
36-17-22
8-28-89
-------------
71-19-20

So there is depth at each position, but then you still have to assess where improvement is needed. I think a top 9 forward pushing Barron down to the 4th line might be one of those...

 

[Jet]

what are our lines when healthy
SPW
Pce
Lba
Stenlund saks x
Who is x? Gagner?
Who gets waived?

I think it's going to heavily depend on who is waiver eligible. When Stan comes back I could see both Samberg and Heinola sent down and us run with 7 D as they are both waiver free.

Maenalanen requires waivers and will not clear. Barron does not - there are going to be some hard decisions. Stenlund, AJF, Gagner, Gus all require waivers.

So, if they send down both Samberg and Heinola and run with 7 D, that leaves 14 forwards:

Connor, Scheifele, Wheeler, Ehlers, Perfetti, Dubois, Lowry, Appleton for me are absolute no go's (obviously). that's 8 players.

Maenalanen I think is a sure thing. He's a prototypical bottom 6 guy, he never hurts you, he hits, is strong along the wall, and I think there's some offense in there he was starting to discover.

Gustafsson requires waivers and I think the Jets loathe to lose him.

That's 10 forwards, leaving 4 spots open.

Gagner
AJF
Stenlund
Kuhlman
Barron

So for me, if the Jets want to keep their depth, they will have to send Morgan Barron down. I feel like they really love him though.

I predict they will send Heinola and Samberg down, and either send Barron to the minors or waive Kuhlman (who I think they also really like).

Luckily, I do not think the jets will ever be 100% healthy (weird sentence), so I don't think they will have to make that hard decision. I think all of the tough decisions were made already (Harkins and Eyssimont).

I don't think anyone gets waived now. Maenalanen coming back will send Heinola back to the Moose in all likelihood. I just don't see Samberg getting demoted...

Stanley coming back will put the Jets over the limit, but I suspect they take their time with him, and maybe put somebody on IR to keep the lineup from losing anyone.

Appleton was apparently 10-12 weeks away when injured. Nov. 16. 12 weeks puts him into mid February. I think you could probably stretch another week out of that, and then put him on a reconditioning stint to get him back after the trade deadline of March 3rd. At that point roster limits are not frozen to 23, but the Cap is still in effect, so I could see the Jets carrying as many as 27 players going into the playoffs, if say Heinola is promoted, and/or there is an acquisition or 2. That's definitely an advantage to having Cap space over some teams, building a bigger team with that space, in the final stretch.

The way I would see the forwards is

81-80-27
91-55-26
36-17-22
8-28-89
-------------
71-19-20

So there is depth at each position, but then you still have to assess where improvement is needed. I think a top 9 forward pushing Barron down to the 4th line might be one of those...

Ignore my post, voyageur is way smarter than me

 

[10Ducky10]

My lineup for a healthy Jets team.

Ehlers Scheif Wheeler
KC PLD Perfetti
Barron Lowry Apples
Sak Stenlund Gagner

Gus

JMo DD
Dillon Schmidt
Samberg Pionk

Stanley/Heinola

 

[flyingkiwi]

At what time can I expect to get lines for tomorrow's gdt?

 

[voyageur]

At what time can I expect to get lines for tomorrow's gdt?

I think the rule of thumb is roll with a winning lineup. I find illegalcurve.com to be one of the best places to find lineup information. Not sure if Jets are practicing today for tomorrow's afternoon game, but it would be soon if they are.

 

[SSCBLUEJET]

At what time can I expect to get lines for tomorrow's gdt?

Don't worry. I hear they have you slotted on the left side with Lowry and Gagne

 

[BigZ65]

It's interesting that Harkins and Eyssimont get demoted this week. I didn't think either were that bad. I kind of agree with your assessment of Harkins. But neither contribute to special teams, when the lineup is healthy. And that's an important thing in a Bowness lineup, he seems pretty committed to having players with identified roles. All the forwards who are still here have some kind of role with the team. Those couple of minutes on the PK may seem insignificant but as a fan I'm beyond elated that the Jets are finally a team that is hard to score against. A team that doesn't lose momentum with its PK. It's such a drastic turnover from last year where the 4th line of Harkins-Toninato-Svetchinikov or Vesalainen not only didn't get the job done 5 on 5, none of them did anything beyond 5 on 5 that contributed to team success. Toninato was on the PK, but I think it was identified early in this TC that he could be replaced with better personnel, and has been.

I think when it comes down to a player like Harkins vs. AJF that role is important. And the same thing would apply to Kuhlman now in the lineup instead of Eyssimont or Harkins. I saw a Bones press conference where he specifically talked about wingers playing their offside having a hard time with zone clears. And that was fundamentals, having to play pucks defensively on your backhand. I think that's why a player like Kuhlman is being given a bit of a leash. That and he hasn't been on the ice for a SH goal as Jet, and that's something I think is more valued than at any time in the new Jets history. All these guys doing the dirty work allow the top 6 forwards to do their job which is score, and not being gassed the way Maurice used to grind his stars has paid some dividends I think, in 5 on 5 play.

It's what has kept Gustafsson in the lineup in spite of mediocre 5 on 5 play. For a player like Maenalanen it's becoming clearer to me that Bowness values some physicality from his forwards, and Maenalanen is one of the most noticeable players in that aspect. Seems to me that message was given to Morgan Barron too, who had a strong game against Calgary.

Bottom six guys in this era it's all about skating and managing the puck at the bluelines. Kuhlman is a solid player, up and down the ice like nothing. AJF too, heavy on the forecheck, good decisions with the puck.

Harkins is slow, does a little too much east-west, hasn't broke out of that consistently. Eyssimont also too slow for NHL. Works hard and understands his limitations, but very limited.

 

[None]

At what time can I expect to get lines for tomorrow's gdt?

Gus and Mäenalanen might be placeholders with Barron being 3rd line LW/RW and Stenlund being 4th line C.

 

[BigZ65]

My lineup for a healthy Jets team.

Ehlers Scheif Wheeler
KC PLD Perfetti
Barron Lowry Apples
Sak Stenlund Gagner

Gus

JMo DD
Dillon Schmidt
Samberg Pionk

Stanley/Heinola

Think I'd bump Gagner for either of our waiver pickups. I think he'll get waived if everyone is healthy.

 

[flyingkiwi]

Don't worry. I hear they have you slotted on the left side with Lowry and Gagne

Works for me, my left eye has a terrible field of view and I shoot right

I think the rule of thumb is roll with a winning lineup. I find illegalcurve.com to be one of the best places to find lineup information. Not sure if Jets are practicing today for tomorrow's afternoon game, but it would be soon if they are.

Thanks! I won't be awake for too much longer so I suppose I'll see what's what when I get up tomorrow.