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GDT: 2022-23 NHL Playoffs

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twabby

twabby

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Calicaps said:
I know how you feel about the eye test, but what I see is that 5 on 5 they're just plain bad. I'd attribute the bolded--and the fact they outchanced Vegas--mainly to their best players who have a lot of possession and are so dangerous. But the chances that team as a whole does give up... woof. Guys all alone with time for tea. Glaring mistakes on nearly every Vegas goal. Loose, sloppy hockey. Contrast them with Carolina, for instance.

Living out West I see a lot of the Oilers, and they're just not a very good team. They have some extraordinary players, but teamwide.... meh.

And then yes, they do not have a goalie who can save them from themselves.
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Carolina has gone no further than the Oilers in recent years. For all of the talk of them being built for the playoffs they haven’t really done much to actually prove that.

Edmonton is top-heavy simply because they’re stars are otherworldly, but they actually built decent enough depth this year. Their depth forwards actually outscored and outchanced the opposition this year, something that hasn’t happened in the McDavid era.

Again, whatever chances Edmonton gave up this series Vegas gave up even more! Are Vegas some fatally flawed defensive team, or did one team just convert more on their looks?

Goaltending and luck, as always, are hugely underrated as factors because they don’t make for interesting narratives.
 
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Langway

Langway

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Shot attempts aren't a very persuasive metric for evaluating teams in the playoffs. In an even shorter sample Caps fans of any fanbase should know quality still beats quantity, esp. with score effects. Vegas was much better defensively when it mattered most, able to front shots capably and somewhat bottle EDM's fire power. VGK didn't dominate possession. They were opportunistic with their chances...and that's playoff hockey. It's not about percentages. Sure, there's luck but it's about converting and that's not solely on divine intervention or just spamming shots.

Teams need balance and fortitude to move forward playing a fundamentally stout two-way game. Eventually weaknesses cost teams that don't find that gear in all phases. Certainly goaltending also let Edmonton down (not surprisingly) but this isn't exactly a CF chalk full of money goaltenders. Bobrovsky has been great. The rest are about as average as it gets in any given year.
 
twabby

twabby

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I recall seeing something to the effect that a hockey series would need to be a best of 53 (or somewhere in that neighborhood) before being able to confidently pick a winner to the same degree as you could pick a best of 7 in basketball. The randomness is real. Trying to apply reason to chaos is a fool’s errand.

Yeah there are some not great goaltenders in the conference finals but they still outplayed the opposing goaltenders by a decent margin. Boston advances quite easily if Ullmark isn’t injured and doesn’t let in everything directed toward him. TB advances if Vasilevskiy doesn’t have the worst series of his career. Carolina might still advance but Sorokin let in an absolute howler in OT if Game 6. Seattle goes from in the lottery to on the verge of the WCF simply because Grubauer doesn’t have a historically bad season. Etc.

Edmonton allowing a lot of goals can be explained pretty simply by poor goaltending and their Nurse-Ceci pairing playing poorly. I don’t think we need to indulge in more narratives in order to explain what happened. Capitals fans, if anyone, should know that given how they performed in the years 2015 thru 2018.
 
um

um

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twabby said:
Carolina has gone no further than the Oilers in recent years. For all of the talk of them being built for the playoffs they haven’t really done much to actually prove that.

Edmonton is top-heavy simply because they’re stars are otherworldly, but they actually built decent enough depth this year. Their depth forwards actually outscored and outchanced the opposition this year, something that hasn’t happened in the McDavid era.

Again, whatever chances Edmonton gave up this series Vegas gave up even more! Are Vegas some fatally flawed defensive team, or did one team just convert more on their looks?

Goaltending and luck, as always, are hugely underrated as factors because they don’t make for interesting narratives.
Click to expand...
It seemed like Vegas had many stretches of dominating the game at 5 on 5, the only time Edmonton had that was on the power play.

I do think Edmonton could have won with better goaltending, but they also had very disappointing performances from RNH, Hyman, Kane, and Nurse.

Vegas’s depth absolutely out performed the Oilers, while their star players also showed up big time. Vegas is clicking on all levels right now.

IDGAF what the nerds say, Vegas is a great team, 4 conference finals in 6 years proves it.
 
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StrikingDistance

StrikingDistance

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I have no problem FL winning the cup...they need new fans and need something to be happy about.

I'm predicting at least 60% Panther fans at their home games during the ECF.
 
Empty Goal Net

Empty Goal Net

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StrikingDistance said:
I have no problem FL winning the cup...they need new fans and need something to be happy about.

I'm predicting at least 60% Panther fans at their home games during the ECF.
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About the same for me. Rather not see any teams from FL or TX win anything due to reasons, but of the 4 semifinalists I'd rather the Panthers succeed than any of the others due to their history and to reward their (small) fanbase.
 
kicksavedave

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CapitalsCupReality said:
Despite them or because of them?
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Clearly both. A hot goalie can take a mediocre team very far, we've seen that a million times. And a Vezina goalie who lets in a badly timed softy can ruin even a stacked teams chances of advancing, we've seen this a million times.

I guess my point is, no single athletic position in any team sport is as vital to team success as goaltender play. Quarterback is a modest second place as a team can run the ball and hide mediocre QB play. A mediocre goalie is exposed every time.
 
kicksavedave

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Vegas Dallas Raleigh and Miami, a ratings fart blossom for the NHL. No original six, three Southern teams, and Vegas is just, well, I hope they lose in another finals. Their fanbase deserves infinitely more suffering based on 2018 alone, nothing personal of course.
 
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RedRocking

RedRocking

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The Canes are my sister’s team, so feel obliged to (sorta?) root for them. Curious to see if their D corps coupled with their disciplined north-south game neutralizes some of FL’s counterattack offense.

Also don’t think Andersen has been tested as much as Bob. FL has guys than can kill you throughout the lineup. If Bob stays hot I could see Canes’ lack of elite finishing talent being an issue. Aho has to have a better series than he did against NJ.

In the West, both feel like bad options. I guess I’ll be rooting for Pavs a bit. Vegas is deep and Eichel is playing well. Adin Hill is a wildcard against a guy like Oettinger.
 
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