2022-23 NCAA CHL, OHL and European prospects thread

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Nubmer6

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The person who is more likely to move on here is McCarthy, who should have at least some interest elsewhere and while there's a pocket for him here - Nemec and Walsh could easily not be in Utica next year - he is definitely going to be squeezed from both sides.
Isn't he a junior? If so, we still have this off-season and another to get him signed.
 

Blackjack

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Isn't he a junior? If so, we still have this off-season and another to get him signed.

Senior


He'll be a UFA. I'd say there's a good chance he signs elsewhere as he'd be pretty buried here. The argument to sign here is that assuming Severson moves on he could be the 4th righ side dman on the depth chart on a very good team.
 

Triumph

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He'll be a UFA. I'd say there's a good chance he signs elsewhere as he'd be pretty buried here. The argument to sign here is that assuming Severson moves on he could be the 4th righ side dman on the depth chart on a very good team.

It's hard for a player like this to walk when there really isn't a guarantee he will be signed to an ELC elsewhere, he was a 5th round pick and isn't some sort of college standout. But I agree there is a risk of him walking.
 

Lou is God

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The person who is more likely to move on here is McCarthy, who should have at least some interest elsewhere and while there's a pocket for him here - Nemec and Walsh could easily not be in Utica next year - he is definitely going to be squeezed from both sides.
I've been saying this for months, most likely destination IMO - Anaheim. He's apparently besties with Zegras.
 

Jersey Fan 12

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Isn't he a junior? If so, we still have this off-season and another to get him signed.

He's a senior but with the Covid clause he can take a fifth season of college hockey and believe Devils would retain his rights until the following August (not totally sure).
 
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StevenToddIves

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The person who is more likely to move on here is McCarthy, who should have at least some interest elsewhere and while there's a pocket for him here - Nemec and Walsh could easily not be in Utica next year - he is definitely going to be squeezed from both sides.
McCarthy is a superior prospect to Walsh, although he's not close to Nemec. That being said, McCarthy is a completely different player-type to those two, so there is absolutely a need for him in the Devils system. Nemec has superstar upside, whereas Walsh projects to being a better-skating Will Butcher-type. McCarthy's upside is to become a Siegenthaler/Marino-type (not saying he'll be that good, of course), which is to say a strong defensive presence who also skates well and handles the puck capably. The Devils don't have another RD close to NHL ready to fill that role, so McCarthy would certainly be a guy the Devils would want honing his game in the AHL.

It also bears mentioning that McCarthy is friends with Jack Hughes. This would certainly not be a sole reason to sign him, but considering all the other factors in play, it makes no sense for the Devils to simply allow him to walk instead of giving him an ELC and allowing him to further develop in the AHL.

Looking at the Devils RD pipeline, the NHL/AHL depth charts look something like:

NJ
1 Hamilton
2 Marino
3 Severson

UTICA
1 Nemec
2 Walsh
3 Blujus

Now, next year we can probably assume Severson -- on the final year of his contract with Nemec and Luke Hughes (left shot, but has played a great deal on the right side as well) knocking on the door -- will not be back. This opening would create a gaping opportunity which, for the Devils (lacking any other AHL-ready RD prospects as Casey is at least a year away and Leddy/Barabosha several years away), could only be filled by McCarthy.

As such, I would 100% expect McCarthy to play for the Devils organization next year. I'd say the RD depth chart is likely to look like:

NJ
1 Hamilton
2 Marino
3 Nemec

UTICA
1 Walsh
2 McCarthy
3 Blujus

I would also expect McCarthy to soon usurp Walsh as the top RD in Utica since, as I've said at length, he plays a more NHL-type game and is, to me, the superior prospect.
Solely based on points, Case McCarthy is now third amongst BU defensemen behind freshman Lane Hutson (Montreal) and senior Domenick Fensore (Carolina); both of whom are smaller players seemingly more suited to college hockey.

Any likelihood that McCarthy still gets signed or with the right-hand shot D drafted last year have the Devils moved on from him?
Absolutely 100% yes. See my above explanation.
 

devilsblood

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I agree with STI. Think McCarthy would immediately be 4th on the RHD depth chart. Which I think would be fine from his perspective.

Walsh is just not in NJ's plans imo.

Casey still a couple years off, and a much different player then McCarthy.

Really if Casey is not really good I wonder about his NHL prospects. McCarthy can just be solid defensively and find a spot on a 3rd pair.
 

Billdo

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NHL Network on Sirius was talking about the Devils today. I didn't catch it all but they had Meghan Dugan on. What I did hear was her talking about Hughes and Casey. They questioned Casey's long term success due to his size. Apparently there are only ten defenseman in the league his size. Hughes was mentioned and they talked about how he can get away with stuff in college because of his skating but eventually that won't be the case the higher he gets. I wish I could've heard more.

Having said all of that, I think McCarthy has a fit in the organization. He's a defense first guy who isn't a total grenade handler with the puck. I can see him being a similar version of Marino although that's the best case scenario. The worst is a bottom pairing PKer who is good enough to play middle pairing more often than not. Top pairing AHLer and injury call up.
 

My3Sons

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NHL Network on Sirius was talking about the Devils today. I didn't catch it all but they had Meghan Dugan on. What I did hear was her talking about Hughes and Casey. They questioned Casey's long term success due to his size. Apparently there are only ten defenseman in the league his size. Hughes was mentioned and they talked about how he can get away with stuff in college because of his skating but eventually that won't be the case the higher he gets. I wish I could've heard more.

Having said all of that, I think McCarthy has a fit in the organization. He's a defense first guy who isn't a total grenade handler with the puck. I can see him being a similar version of Marino although that's the best case scenario. The worst is a bottom pairing PKer who is good enough to play middle pairing more often than not. Top pairing AHLer and injury call up.
Casey’s stature and frame are obviously an issue. I guess he plays three years in college and then they sign him and try to develop him from there. If he can’t cut it on defense I’d try him as a winger.
 
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Billdo

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Casey’s stature and frame are obviously an issue. I guess he plays three years in college and then they sign him and try to develop him from there. If he can’t cut it on defense I’d try him as a winger.
Like Peter Harrold and Matt Corrente.
 

Guttersniped

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NHL Network on Sirius was talking about the Devils today. I didn't catch it all but they had Meghan Dugan on. What I did hear was her talking about Hughes and Casey. They questioned Casey's long term success due to his size. Apparently there are only ten defenseman in the league his size. Hughes was mentioned and they talked about how he can get away with stuff in college because of his skating but eventually that won't be the case the higher he gets. I wish I could've heard more.

Having said all of that, I think McCarthy has a fit in the organization. He's a defense first guy who isn't a total grenade handler with the puck. I can see him being a similar version of Marino although that's the best case scenario. The worst is a bottom pairing PKer who is good enough to play middle pairing more often than not. Top pairing AHLer and injury call up.

The bias against drafting small defensemen isn’t wrong, it’s tougher for smaller defenders than forwards. Size involves both height and weight though. Also we have no idea what NHL players weigh unless you get

Casey was listed at the draft as 5’10” 173 with the combine having him at 5’9.5”. Michigan lists him as 5’10” 178. 180 is my line in the sand, it’s tougher to see a defenseman make it when he’s less stout than that.

Lane Hutson was listed at the draft as 5’8” 158 with the combine having him at 5’8.25”. BU lists him as 5’9” 155. He’s a fun player but that’s tiny even if he fills out.

A smaller defenseman needs skating to make up for a lot and Casey has tremendous agility. They also need to produce and Casey is terror with the puck, you could see it at the Prospect Camp 3-on-3, and his production this year.

He’ll need time to build up core strength, part of the issue with smaller defensemen is teams probably aren’t patient enough with them. The nice thing about Casey is coming from a family of Devils’ fans. Even if he scores a ton he shouldn’t be rushed out of college.

This was from Feb 2022 Elite Prospects article about the Beanpot Tournament.

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My3Sons

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Yet Habs fans think Hutson at 155 is no concern.
It’s clearly an issue. Is Quinn Hughes the smallest NHL defender? That’s a tough template to recreate. It’s boom or bust for the smaller guys and even then their defense is sometimes criticized. We will see what plays out and the good news is Casey has years to develop and find a niche.
 

BomaLightDevils

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How can it be that the info about our prospects is so quiet, I know many is playing in either Jersey or Utica but not all.?
Miss when this thread were updated regularly
 

PizzaAndPucks

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How can it be that the info about our prospects is so quiet, I know many is playing in either Jersey or Utica but not all.?
Miss when this thread were updated regularly
It seems the individual player threads for each prospect get updated when they do something noteworthy. I believe allaboutthejersey.com does weekly updates of every prospect.
 

StevenToddIves

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I agree with STI. Think McCarthy would immediately be 4th on the RHD depth chart. Which I think would be fine from his perspective.

Walsh is just not in NJ's plans imo.

Casey still a couple years off, and a much different player then McCarthy.

Really if Casey is not really good I wonder about his NHL prospects. McCarthy can just be solid defensively and find a spot on a 3rd pair.
We have to keep in mind that the current Devils rebuild (now happily looking like it's finally turned the corner) really began in 2015/2016 with Ray Shero, and continued with Tom Fitzgerald taking over the GM reins.

Though Shero and Fitzgerald had several priorities in common, I'd say the biggest difference between the two was their philosophy of drafting/developing defensemen. Shero liked small(-ish), offensive-minded rearguards and drafted/acquired several -- Jeremy Davies, Ty Smith, Will Butcher and Reilly Walsh. Fitzgerald prefers more size and defensive capability on his blueline -- clearly evidenced by his jettisoning of Smith and Butcher and the fact he has neither drafted nor acquired a single all-offense-type on the blueline aside from the sublimely skilled Luke Hughes. Though Nemec's offense is his calling card, he is also quite capable defensively, and the same can be said for Seamus Casey, who is the smallest defender Fitzgerald has acquired in any fashion.

Simply put, Fitzgerald does not seem to have patience for all-offense defenders without size or elite offensive upside. This does not bode well for Walsh's future on the New Jersey Devils. Though I do not mean to slag Walsh -- he certainly possesses the ability to produce 40+ point seasons at the NHL level, which is no small feat. But as with similar-type players in Will Butcher or Shayne Gostisbehere or Ty Smith or whomever -- Walsh's offense comes with the caveat of being fairly easy to beat in several ways in the defensive zone and playing a high-risk game in general.

McCarthy -- although he was drafted by Shero -- fits stylistically more in line with the defenders Fitzgerald has both acquired (Siegenthaler, Marino) and drafted (Vilen, Orlov, Leddy, Barabosha). I think he certainly has a future in the New Jersey. Though we also have to be realistic and realize that a lot must happen for McCarthy to carve a future with the Devils, as the right side of the blueline looks to be built around a stunningly talented trio of Hamilton/Marino/Nemec with another top prospect in Casey maybe three years away.

But again, next year McCarthy could emerge as the Devils top AHL RD, and maybe a guy who could step up to the pro roster in case of injury. As such, I 100% percent expect him to be signed by the club following the NCAA season's conclusion. He was an excellent draft pick for Ray Shero and should be a very useful supplementary piece for Fitzgerald for the coming few seasons, at the very least.
 
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StevenToddIves

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NHL Network on Sirius was talking about the Devils today. I didn't catch it all but they had Meghan Dugan on. What I did hear was her talking about Hughes and Casey. They questioned Casey's long term success due to his size. Apparently there are only ten defenseman in the league his size. Hughes was mentioned and they talked about how he can get away with stuff in college because of his skating but eventually that won't be the case the higher he gets. I wish I could've heard more.

Having said all of that, I think McCarthy has a fit in the organization. He's a defense first guy who isn't a total grenade handler with the puck. I can see him being a similar version of Marino although that's the best case scenario. The worst is a bottom pairing PKer who is good enough to play middle pairing more often than not. Top pairing AHLer and injury call up.
What we must keep in mind with Seamus Casey is that he is actually a very strong defender -- despite standing at just around 5'10-160, we're not talking about some riverboat gambler who cannot keep pucks away from his own net or defend with any acuity.

Here's my write-up of Casey from before last year's draft, which I feel was quite objective and still find accurate.

2022 Draft Profile:

RD Seamus Casey, US-NTDP (STI Ranking #47, McKenzie #51)
Seamus Casey's wildly divergent consensus rankings may have as much to do with how certain scouts and draft writers idealize defensemen as it does with his own game. I've seen him with multiple rankings in the #11-#12 range, but I've also seen him as low as #50 (Button) and also quite low on the most generally accurate of the big rankings, Bob McKenzie's scout poll (#44). He is generally up-ranked by the more "new age" stat-based rankers, who do not see his 5'10-160 frame and lack of top-speed or much physicality as an issue. Right now, it's a fair argument that he is the top two-way defenseman for the heralded US-NTDP team, but in terms of projection there are certainly problems and questions in his overall style of play which will not affect stronger and faster defenders.

The native Floridian is an excellent example of how the tool of skating is often misconstrued in the scouting process. While Casey's straight-end speed is good but not great, his edges and ability to spin on a dime while deceptively and elusively manipulating the puck with his elite stickhandling makes him extremely difficult to defend. In transition, Casey often makes the opposition look downright silly, manipulating the puck to draw them in and then making a litany of quick moves in a lightning-quick directional change to leave them in his dust. Straight end speed is not everything, and Casey's high IQ and hockey awareness see him always playing faster than he actually is.

Unlike most small defenders, Casey is not simply an offensive guy. This is what I like about him the most. Casey grades as excellent in terms of defensive awareness, positioning, gap control, and effort. His compete level is sometimes misconstrued as average because he's just so smooth and natural out there it seems as if he's not trying. But Casey is certainly a guy giving it his all, and his brain never takes a moment of any shift off. He has an active stick and active feet, and will never be a defensive liability. That being said, Casey can also be beaten one-on-one, both in open ice against faster players and in tight by more physical ones. It's the nature of the beast when you're 5'10 and lack the preternatural strength of a defenseman of similar height like Brian Rafalski or Kris Letang and no fault of Casey's, but at the higher levels you're going to have to pair him with a Carlo or Slavin-type in order for him to succeed in a top 4 capacity.

Offensively, Casey is a point producer who is actually more conservative than he needs to be. I find Casey very precise and patient in his zone rushes. Only if necessary of if the score dictates does he knife into the zone with any relative aggression. But when he does? Look out -- Casey is absolutely an elite dangler which, combined with his edges, can have him weaving in and out of traffic like a high-octane, top-line forward. Casey's passing is also sublime and excellent -- in fact he prefers to utilize the pass over the rush, both in transition and the offensive zone. He's a team first guy and, again, sometimes you'd like to see him even more aggressive. His shooting is what I'd call "good enough" -- in no way intimidating, but he's got a knack for hopping pucks through traffic onto the net.

So, what do we ultimately have in Seamus Casey? He's not really an offensive defenseman, and I don't see a 50+ point guy here, but he'll certainly produce offense. And he's not a shut-down guy -- though his play is generally good and exceptionally smart, he's going to have a lot of trouble with certain types of players at the NHL level in one-on-one scenarios. But it's also tough to gauge his ultimate potential because, like another US-NTDP defenseman in Jake Sanderson, Casey does not ever ever risk team results for personal offensive glory like several offensive-minded defenders in the CHL or Swedish leagues. With his sublime puck skills and shifty skating and high awareness, could Casey have another offensive gear that we simply haven't seen yet?

I'm going to have to say that as much as I like Casey's two-way game, this is not the player to target as a first round pick, but Seamus Casey will be an outstanding pick for the second round. Make no mistake, this is a very good hockey player and it will be fun to track him over the coming seasons.
 

StevenToddIves

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If the Habs fans think that it must be true!
My theory on smallish, offensive-defenders -- which I've repeated at length -- is I only want them on my team if they have elite offensive potential. I would certainly categorize Lane Hutson as such a player, and as such I feel he was a good pick for Montreal. But I do think he'll be a player whose minutes will have to be somewhat sheltered and who will need to be paired with a very defensively strong partner at the NHL level. You just hope Hutson can develop into a somewhat average defender.

Seamus Casey is a different animal, because he's actually quite strong defensively. Casey does not play a particularly risky game, while he's tremendously good in his gaps and positioning. He does not avoid the physical areas, you just hope Casey can build his core strength up enough that he can succeed against bigger opponents in the greasy areas. This is not an impossible ask, as Devils fans should know from years of watching Andy Greene.

I remain high on both Hutson and Casey, though I regard Casey higher if I was forced to rank. I think they'll both make the NHL, but their development and strength-building will determine if they can become core players or more ancillary-types.
 

Guttersniped

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It’s clearly an issue. Is Quinn Hughes the smallest NHL defender? That’s a tough template to recreate. It’s boom or bust for the smaller guys and even then their defense is sometimes criticized. We will see what plays out and the good news is Casey has years to develop and find a niche.

It’s hard to say because size is about body mass and player’s weight aren’t easily pinned down.

Sam Girard is listed at 5’10” and 170 and was drafted at 5’9” and 160.

Quinn Hughes is listed at 5’10” 180 and was listed at 173 at the draft. Even if he’s 5’9” the weight matters.

So I would make a distinction between a player who’s drafted 158 (Hutson) and is now listed at 155 vs one who’s drafted at 173 (Casey) and is now listed at 178. That’s a pretty significant difference in body mass.

A smaller, thinner guy can only fill out so much on a that frame.

It’s tough for shorter guys who are ~180 to make it but high end skating, hockey IQ and/or offensive production can get them in there.

Lane Hutson is electrifying but how much weight can he really put on? I obviously don’t know, and we’ll find out, but the further down from ~180 it is the harder it will be for him to realistically have any chance to make it in the NHL.
 
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