Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: The Search for a 2C

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Literally just making up stats now to help your argument. :laugh:

Usually a sign to step away when made up stays come into play.

Keep believing what you want to believe.
OK replace 95% with "most" if you are so hung up with a number. My point still stand. Most of the faceoffs end up as an icing against. That is still very important PP time that we are losing which could means a few extra Ws in the season and most important during the playoffs.
 
Everyone knows I care about faceoffs more than the average hockey fan, just so frustrating that it feels like every new center the Avs bring in, whether it’s one of their own prospects or from outside the organization, absolutely SUCKS in the dot.

I also can’t stand the rule changes that have linemen taking five goddamned minutes to drop the puck. I realize there are reasons they put in those rules but it’s annoying. The game is slowed down enough with idiotic video review, we did not need to slow it down even more.
 
OK replace 95% with "most" if you are so hung up with a number. My point still stand. Most of the faceoffs end up as an icing against. That is still very important PP time that we are losing which could means a few extra Ws in the season and most important during the playoffs.

But that isn't even true though...

We can actually do the real math here to get a rough idea of the numbers if you want. And look at it in a couple of different ways.

So far this year the Avs have had 190 PP Faceoffs, they've won 75 and lost 115 for a 40% win rate. If you consider 50% to be the true fair outcome rate(Which based on pure simple probability, is accurate), that means they've lost 20 faceoffs more then what they should have under theoretical averages.

If you also then assume every lost faceoff results in 15 seconds of lost PP time... 5:15 of PP time has been wasted by the Avs so far. Or over the course of a full 82 game season using these numbers, you're talking ~12:15 of PP time wasted on lost faceoffs above theoretical average.

Now look at Colorado's PP goals/60. The Avs have spent 171 minutes on the PP this year and have 29 goals scored. That works out to roughly 10.175 Goals every 60 minutes of PP time... or 1 PPG every 5:55 of PP ice time.

That means if the Avs were a 50% faceoff team on the PP instead of 40%, over the course of an entire season, they would score 2.0 extra goals. That's ~1 additional win.

EDIT: Actually, its not even close to 1 additional win. Somebody else already did this math. One extra win in the standings is worth an average of 5.18 goals. So an additional 2 goals over an entire season gets you about 0.4 wins.


Now, you could even go to the complete, unrealistic extreme for the argument. What if Colorado was the first team in league history to win 100% of its faceoffs on the PP. So far on the season, that would be an extra 28.75 Minutes of PP time. Or about 4.65 goals.

Over the course of an entire season, it would be ~76.2 minutes of additional non wasted PP time. Or just under 13 goals.


So if the Avs won 100% of faceoffs on the PP all season long, they'd score an additional ~13 Powerplay Goals. If they actually won the league average rate of 50% instead of the current 40%, they'd score 2 goals more in 82 games. Yep, that certainly seems like a statistic that shows the value of winning a faceoff on the PP.


Basically the argument is that faceoffs matter on the PP to the tune of 0.025 Goals per game.
 
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I also can’t stand the rule changes that have linemen taking five goddamned minutes to drop the puck. I realize there are reasons they put in those rules but it’s annoying. The game is slowed down enough with idiotic video review, we did not need to slow it down even more.
Not only that, but I cannot stand when linesmen are trigger happy and want to kick out centres the first chance they can. Just get them set and drop the f***ing puck. Stop making the game about you. Nobody shows up to watch a linesmen kick players out of faceoffs.
 
Hopefully Bednar is smart and just keeps Mikko at C after Mackinnon comes back so they don't have to go after overpriced 2Cs like Horvat. Looks like in order for the avs to make any moves they're going to have to move some salary so maybe they can trade Girard to Florida who might bite on him with how lacking they are on defense and get a 1st from them then trade for Crouse or something.
 
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But that isn't even true though...

We can actually do the real math here to get a rough idea of the numbers if you want. And look at it in a couple of different ways.

So far this year the Avs have had 190 PP Faceoffs, they've won 75 and lost 115 for a 40% win rate. If you consider 50% to be the true fair outcome rate(Which based on pure simple probability, is accurate), that means they've lost 20 faceoffs more then what they should have under theoretical averages.

If you also then assume every lost faceoff results in 15 seconds of lost PP time... 5:15 of PP time has been wasted by the Avs so far. Or over the course of a full 82 game season using these numbers, you're talking ~12:15 of PP time wasted on lost faceoffs above theoretical average.

Now look at Colorado's PP goals/60. The Avs have spent 171 minutes on the PP this year and have 29 goals scored. That works out to roughly 10.175 Goals every 60 minutes of PP time... or 1 PPG every 5:55 of PP ice time.

That means if the Avs were a 50% faceoff team on the PP instead of 40%, over the course of an entire season, they would score 2.0 extra goals. That's ~1 additional win.

EDIT: Actually, its not even close to 1 additional win. Somebody else already did this math. One extra win in the standings is worth an average of 5.18 goals. So an additional 2 goals over an entire season gets you about 0.4 wins.


Now, you could even go to the complete, unrealistic extreme for the argument. What if Colorado was the first team in league history to win 100% of its faceoffs on the PP. So far on the season, that would be an extra 28.75 Minutes of PP time. Or about 4.65 goals.

Over the course of an entire season, it would be ~76.2 minutes of additional non wasted PP time. Or just under 13 goals.


So if the Avs won 100% of faceoffs on the PP all season long, they'd score an additional ~13 Powerplay Goals. If they actually won the league average rate of 50% instead of the current 40%, they'd score 2 goals more in 82 games. Yep, that certainly seems like a statistic that shows the value of winning a faceoff on the PP.


Basically the argument is that faceoffs matter on the PP to the tune of 0.025 Goals per game.
You can give me all the numbers you want but one thing will not change....the team that has possession of the puck is the team that has a chance to score. I much prefer my team being in the offensive zone on the PP and having a chance to score than having it retrieving the puck after an icing from a lost faceoffs. Call me crazy.

Listening to you we might as well change the rule and get the refs to just alternatively throw the puck to one team instead of having a faceoff. After all, faceoffs don't matter, right?
 
You can give me all the numbers you want but one thing will not change....the team that has possession of the puck is the team that has a chance to score. I much prefer my team being in the offensive zone on the PP and having a chance to score than having it retrieving the puck after an icing from a lost faceoffs. Call me crazy.

Listening to you we might as well change the rule and get the refs to just alternatively throw the puck to one team instead of having a faceoff. After all, faceoffs don't matter, right?

:laugh: That's exactly the quality of response I've come to expect from you. Well done once again.
 
You can give me all the numbers you want but one thing will not change....the team that has possession of the puck is the team that has a chance to score. I much prefer my team being in the offensive zone on the PP and having a chance to score than having it retrieving the puck after an icing from a lost faceoffs. Call me crazy.

Listening to you we might as well change the rule and get the refs to just alternatively throw the puck to one team instead of having a faceoff. After all, faceoffs don't matter, right?

Faceoff isn't the only way to get possession and it doesn't show whether or not you can maintain possession. It gets exaggerated because it's a more avaliable stat than actual possession time.
 
:laugh: That's exactly the quality of response I've come to expect from you. Well done once again.
And a laughing emoji is the kind of response we have come to expect from you.

But I'll bite...what is so wrong with my response? I say the 15-20 secs they lose every time they lose a faceoff on the PP can eventually matter especially in the playoffs and you say it doesn't matter in the long run. The same can be said about the faceoffs we lose on the PK as the extra 15-20 secs they gain there means they are not pinned down in their zone and therefore more chance in killing the penalty.
 
Faceoff isn't the only way to get possession and it doesn't show whether or not you can maintain possession. It gets exaggerated because it's a more avaliable stat than actual possession time.

Doesn't matter to him.

And a laughing emoji is the kind of response we have come to expect from you.

But I'll bite...what is so wrong with my response? I say the 15-20 secs they lose every time they lose a faceoff on the PP can eventually matter especially in the playoffs and you say it doesn't matter in the long run. The same can be said about the faceoffs we lose on the PK as the extra 15-20 secs they gain there means they are not pinned down in their zone and therefore more chance in killing the penalty.

I literally just laid it all out for you and you just ignored it because the numbers overwhelmingly go against your opinion on the importance of faceoffs.


And just so we are crystal clear here, I am not suggesting losing the faceoff is better than winning. Winning is certainly preferred, it simply has a rudimentary impact on the results of a game. Wouldn't have thought I needed to clarify that but here we are...
 
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Faceoff isn't the only way to get possession and it doesn't show whether or not you can maintain possession. It gets exaggerated because it's a more avaliable stat than actual possession time.
No it's not the only way but you can't argue that most of lost faceoffs on the PP result in an icing against. That is just a fact. You win the faceoff and your chance of setting up in the zone and therefore having possession is much greater.
 
Doesn't matter to him.



I literally just laid it all out for you and you just ignored it because the numbers overwhelmingly go against your opinion on the importance of faceoffs.
Because it really doesn't matter what the numbers say. If it creates an advantage, however small it is, it is still an advantage to win the faceoff on PP and on PK. Why do coaches put their forwards in a better position to win them if they are not important? Heck they even decide which player will take the faceoff depending on handedness.
 
Hopefully Bednar is smart and just keeps Mikko at C after Mackinnon comes back so they don't have to go after overpriced 2Cs like Horvat. Looks like in order for the avs to make any moves they're going to have to move some salary so maybe they can trade Girard to Florida who might bite on him with how lacking they are on defense and get a 1st from them then trade for Crouse or something.
Considering he's already back on the wing I don't think that is the case.
 
Everyone knows I care about faceoffs more than the average hockey fan, just so frustrating that it feels like every new center the Avs bring in, whether it’s one of their own prospects or from outside the organization, absolutely SUCKS in the dot.

I also can’t stand the rule changes that have linemen taking five goddamned minutes to drop the puck. I realize there are reasons they put in those rules but it’s annoying. The game is slowed down enough with idiotic video review, we did not need to slow it down even more.

Have you ever used faceoffs as an excuse for small talk at an airport or a train station?
 
sorry if this has already been discussed, but it came to my mind now... what about a Girard for Kotkaniemi swap? roughly same cap, both long contracts... he is struggling a lot at Carolina, but maybe a change of scenery can get his mojo back? if he becomes even just a decent 2C, for that cap it would be perfect for the Avs, considering our cap crunch.
 
Have you ever used faceoffs as an excuse for small talk at an airport or a train station?
Have not yet had that opportunity. Also the only train station I’ve ever been to is in Denver and is no longer a train station.

But the topic DID come up during my last high school reunion, all about proper technique and what not. Good times.
 
sorry if this has already been discussed, but it came to my mind now... what about a Girard for Kotkaniemi swap? roughly same cap, both long contracts... he is struggling a lot at Carolina, but maybe a change of scenery can get his mojo back? if he becomes even just a decent 2C, for that cap it would be perfect for the Avs, considering our cap crunch.

I've thought about it. I've always been a Kotkaniemi fan but I think there's quite a bit more risk with him and his contract then Girards.


For one, yeah Girard has had his struggles over the last little while... But we know for a fact that he's capable of more and has shown to be a legit #2D before. With Kotkaniemi he hasn't yet shown that ability to be a 2C for any sort of sustained level of time. It's entirely possible he never hits that level.


So then in accordance with the associated risk, Kotka's deal is for 8 more years while Gs is only 5. So if neither player can get to the level they need to be at, Gs being 3 years shorter is pretty significant.



All that said I'd probably still make the deal and take the risk. If Kotka pans out as a 2C he's on a significant bargain of a contract. If he doesn't crack is as a 2C he could still work out as a 3C instead and $4.8M going forward would also be reasonable money for a good 3C.

And given our organizations complete lack of depth at Center we could use a long term 3C solution as well.
 
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No it's not the only way but you can't argue that most of lost faceoffs on the PP result in an icing against. That is just a fact. You win the faceoff and your chance of setting up in the zone and therefore having possession is much greater.

Greater yes if you lose 100% of the draws. But all evidence show that "much" greater is not the case. Winning 60% of the draw does not equal 60% of the possession.
 
I've always thought that kotka contract would be amazing to pickup. 4.8m all the way till 2030. Just let him play with lehks and rants.
He sucks. 5th year in the league, got plenty of opportunities and he's still bad.

If you think Newhook is bad you sure shouldn't want Kotkaniemi and that contract for 8 years.
 
Greater yes if you lose 100% of the draws. But all evidence show that "much" greater is not the case. Winning 60% of the draw does not equal 60% of the possession.
I'm not sure what you mean by that? If you are saying that I meant every time a team wins a faceoff in a game they are certain to have possession then let me tell you that is not what I meant. First of all I was strictly speaking about faceoffs on the PP. With that said I stand by my comment that if you win a PP faceoff in the offensive zone you certainly GREATLY improve your chance to have possession. This is due to the fact that the other team only has 4 guys on the ice so they will go right away into their defensive setup giving the team winning the faceoff a great chance of setting up properly. Now they might screw up that possession quickly sometimes but they usually have possession after winning the faceoff.
 
I like that idea even though im not as high on Kotka as some around here.
Dude has shown zero progression in 5 years.

Also he actually played an all-Finn line in Montreal with Lehky and Armia and in Carolina with Aho and Teravainen.

Both teams tried everything they could to get him going.
 
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