This is no guarantee either. Newhook with a 35-40 point season can command 3.5-4.5m even on a bridge. Likely right around 4, but could be slightly lower. Byram is a complete wildcard here... if he comes back and say ends with 35 points in 50 games while playing top 4 mintues with a good playoffs... we are right back to either long-term big money, or short term medium money bridge. If he's hurt most of the season and comes back to meh play, Avs might buy a cheap year around 2.5m.
That's before the bonus issues the Avs face too. There may not be a ton with Byram being injured, but schedule As can still add up (a good chunk only require 42 games played), especially with the Avs trending to 150k in cap space at most. 1m in schedule As would basically make the cap the same as this year for the Avs.
To me, this is what makes paying through the nose for Lundell the most palatable option for overpaying. Dude is on an ELC next season and can dramatically help our cap structure. The problem is... Florida needs his contract an ability as much, if not more than the Avs do.