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Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: The Search for a 2C

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Colorado Avalanche said:
If our window ends next season we have badly messed up
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It's not closing. All they really have to do is move G and bridge Bo and they can afford an $8M 2C with the cap expected to rise $4M+. Then the cap increases from there will help them keep anyone that needs raises in the coming years.

Your contention window can never be closed with this core anyway. Meanwhile Cale and Bo will just keep getting better, and you can just fill out the rest of the roster with fast hard working two way players that fit Bednar's system well if need be. Those kind of players don't break the bank.

Ages next year.

MacKinnon - 28
Rantanen - 27
Landy - 31
Nuke - 28
Lehkonen - 28
(Horvat - 28)

Makar - 25
Byram - 22

Georgiev - 27
 
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henchman24 said:
I don’t recall if that was changed in the CBA, but used to be that any clause in the first year applied right away (since the recent extension prior to covid)
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Subban got traded to Nashville before it kicked in.

Edit: I just looked, he was traded on June 29 and his NMC was kicking in on July 1. However, it was on year 3 of an 8 year contract. Could be different rules since there was a RFA/UFA situation..
 
Foppa2118 said:
It's not closing. All they really have to do is move G and bridge Bo and they can afford an $8M 2C with the cap expected to rise $4M+. Then the cap increases from there will help them keep anyone that needs raises in the coming years.

Your contention window can never be closed with this core anyway. Meanwhile Cale and Bo will just keep getting better, and you can just fill out the rest of the roster with fast hard working two way players that fit Bednar's system well if need be. Those kind of players don't break the bank.

Ages next year.

MacKinnon - 28
Rantanen - 27
Landy - 31
Nuke - 28
Lehkonen - 28
(Horvat - 27)

Makar - 25
Byram - 22

Georgiev - 27
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Horvat is older than Mack is he not ?
 
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Pierce Hawthorne said:
They'll still be a playoff team and probably still a Top 10 cup contender, but they wont be a Top 2-3 favorite like they are now and have been for the last 3 years.
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Yeah people need to know this distinction. This team will be a good team for a long time with this core. But an absolute favourite to win the cup in say 4 years? I don't know if we'll have the depth to do that, not with this drafting pedigree lol. Bodies will have to be thrown overboard. Look at Chicago, look at Tampa. Eventually you have to pay for the good players. Think about it, when you look at our roster from last year, we basically had EJ who was overpaid for his role. You had Kadri, Nuke, MacK all playing well under value, not to mention Bo who's still on an ELC. It's pretty damn hard to stay as a perennial contender in this league. Teams like Boston and Tampa have great drafting. Not sure if we can replicate that, because there's only so much you can do to find cheap, undervalue contracts via FA or trade. You need guys producing. Byram is certainly pulling his weight, but the sad fact is that Newhook HAS TO start playing MUCH better if we want to win.
 
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LOFIN said:
Yeah people need to know this distinction. This team will be a good team for a long time with this core. But an absolute favourite to win the cup in say 4 years? I don't know if we'll have the depth to do that, not with this drafting pedigree lol. Bodies will have to be thrown overboard. Look at Chicago, look at Tampa. Eventually you have to pay for the good players. Think about it, when you look at our roster from last year, we basically had EJ who was overpaid for his role. You had Kadri, Nuke, MacK all playing well under value, not to mention Bo who's still on an ELC. It's pretty damn hard to stay as a perennial contender in this league. Teams like Boston and Tampa have great drafting. Not sure if we can replicate that, because there's only so much you can do to find cheap, undervalue contracts via FA or trade. You need guys producing. Byram is certainly pulling his weight, but the sad fact is that Newhook HAS TO start playing MUCH better if we want to win.
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Yeah pretty much. Though I dont even think it will last 4 years honestly. We've had this song and dance on here before, but it basically boils down to the fact it is incredibly difficult to win once the majority of your core players hit that 30 years of age threshold.

Even ignoring the roster construction issues, this current Avs core has a lot of members quickly approaching that 30 mark. Next season we will have Landy turning 31, Nuke turning 29, Toews turning 30, Mack 28, Lehky 28, Mikko 27.

Even with major roster reconstruction to actually build a contender quality roster again(Need a 2C plain and simple, and then some resemblance of forward depth still)... This core probably only has 2-3 more runs left in them before the age curve hits hard enough that they simply aren't good enough anymore to win it all.

And then as you said those core guys all start getting paid market value instead of being underpaid... Byram will be getting a $5M bridge deal next summer if not a $8M long term deal. Toews will be getting a significant raise the following summer, then Mikko will jump up to $12M+ the summer after that. So not only will the cap constraints continue to plague and cause issues, but age starts to become an issue as well.


4 years maximum with this group. Personally I give it 1 more really good year(This year) to win it all again, then maybe 2 more years of being a dark horse contender as a Top 10 team but no longer Top 2-3. After that, they'll probably try to hang onto relevancy for 2-3 years longer then they should but really the retool should be fully commenced by 2025-26.
 
LOFIN said:
Yeah people need to know this distinction. This team will be a good team for a long time with this core. But an absolute favourite to win the cup in say 4 years? I don't know if we'll have the depth to do that, not with this drafting pedigree lol. Bodies will have to be thrown overboard. Look at Chicago, look at Tampa. Eventually you have to pay for the good players. Think about it, when you look at our roster from last year, we basically had EJ who was overpaid for his role. You had Kadri, Nuke, MacK all playing well under value, not to mention Bo who's still on an ELC. It's pretty damn hard to stay as a perennial contender in this league. Teams like Boston and Tampa have great drafting. Not sure if we can replicate that, because there's only so much you can do to find cheap, undervalue contracts via FA or trade. You need guys producing. Byram is certainly pulling his weight, but the sad fact is that Newhook HAS TO start playing MUCH better if we want to win.
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This is a brand new distinction though. The window closing idea was always about whether the Avs could still win the Cup after MacKinnon's raise. Hence the idea of going all in with trades/additions before his next contract. Giving up guys like Byram in trade because they won't be able to win anyway.

Now the window closing idea seems to have extended 2-3-4 years down the road from MacKinnon's raise, and it still allows for the Avs being able to contend, just not being a top contender.

That's not really what the window closing conversation was ever about though, or there wouldn't have been any disagreement. Nobody thought about the idea of the Avs window closing as still being able to win. That would mean the window was left open, not that it's shut.
 
I worked out a roster for this year with trading for Horvat that actually works and also for next season that works.
We would have to give up quite a lot to acquire Horvat @ 50% so I sent a first (2023), first (2025), and Newhook

Landy (7M) Mack (6.3M) Nuke (6.125M)
Lehks (4.5M) Horvat (2.75M) Rants (9.25M)
Hunt (.7625M) E-rod (2M) Compher (3.5M)
Cogs (1.25M) Helm (1.25M) LOC (1.05M)

Toews (4.1M) Makar (9M)
Bo (.894M) Manson (4.5M)
Sammy G (5M) EJ (6M)
Macdermid (.9875M)

Georgiev (3.4M)
Frankie (2M) $81,644,167 cap hit, approx $855,833 in cap space

Next years roster assuming and 86.5M cap and re-signing Horvat to 7Mx8, and bridging Bo for 4Mx3 Also traded away Sammy G to Arizona for Arizona's 2nd (2024), Montreal's 2nd (2024), and Dysin Mayo

Landy (7M) Mack (12.6M) Nuke (6.125M)
Lehks (4.5M) Horvat (7M) Rants (9.25M)
Miles Woods (3.5M) E-rod (2.5M) Kaut (.925M)
Ranta (.950M) Meyers (1.25M) LOC (1.05M)

Toews (4.1M) Makar (9M)
Bo (4M) Manson (4.5M)
MacDonald (.7625M) Mayo (.950M)
MacDermid (.9875M)

Georgiev (3.4M)
Frankie (2M) Total cap hit of $86,350,000. We would be relying on a bit of youth but that's something that we are going to have to start doing.
 
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If you just look at the stats, Greer looks great. But that is mainly due to one pretty lucky game against Arizona. If you watch the games, you see he is just a a run of the mill 13th/14th forward who can throw fists (he obliterated Podkolzin). He's been healthy scratched and really doesn't play that much. I'd say he's more likely to head back into the minors than stick, especially as Boston gets closer to the deadline and shores up that team. But he's worked hard and is trying to carve out a career, I do hope he finds a place in the NHL.
 
Fans really don't put proper values on players, but Horvat will cost a lot more than most rentals. This won't be a run of the mill B+ prospect + late 1st sort of deal. You're looking at established very good young player/A prospect + 1st as a starting point and likely some more.
 
henchman24 said:
Fans really don't put proper values on players, but Horvat will cost a lot more than most rentals. This won't be a run of the mill B+ prospect + late 1st sort of deal. You're looking at established very good young player/A prospect + 1st as a starting point and likely some more.
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In one of the other threads, there was general agreement on Newhook+1st+mid pick for Horvat. I think that's generally around the value we see him returning (even if not from the Avs).
 
LOFIN said:
Yeah people need to know this distinction. This team will be a good team for a long time with this core. But an absolute favourite to win the cup in say 4 years? I don't know if we'll have the depth to do that, not with this drafting pedigree lol. Bodies will have to be thrown overboard. Look at Chicago, look at Tampa. Eventually you have to pay for the good players. Think about it, when you look at our roster from last year, we basically had EJ who was overpaid for his role. You had Kadri, Nuke, MacK all playing well under value, not to mention Bo who's still on an ELC. It's pretty damn hard to stay as a perennial contender in this league. Teams like Boston and Tampa have great drafting. Not sure if we can replicate that, because there's only so much you can do to find cheap, undervalue contracts via FA or trade. You need guys producing. Byram is certainly pulling his weight, but the sad fact is that Newhook HAS TO start playing MUCH better if we want to win.
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What helps the Tampas and Bostons of the world is that their players also take more team friendly contracts. Kucherov makes 9.5, guy should be making at least 12. Stamkos at 8.5 he should be at least 9.5. Hedman at 7.875 should be at least 10.

Then you have Boston. F***ing Marchand is a top-10 player in the league making 6.125. Bergeron for years was underpaid making 6.875 and this year only makes 2.5. Pastrnak making 6.67.

When your best players are making way less than they "should" be making, you can stack the rest of your team if you do things properly. Yes drafting plays a huge role in team success and these two teams are two of the better drafting teams (Boston 2015 snafu aside), but the cap work is masterful as well.

The Avs were able to win last year because we had MacKinnon making half of what he's worth, Kadri making probably 2/3 of what he's worth, Byram on an ELC, Nichushkin making a fraction of what he's worth and Kuemper retained from Arizona. That shit adds up. Now? Not so much.
 
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