Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)

[AvsWraith]

Som folks frustrated by this summer. I couldn't be happier. We have the silver chalice for a year. We locked up Lehky who I love. We kept GMCM around. Calgary got worse IMO. F them. That is what their two best UFA's said too. Its glorious!

I'm frustrated we didn't get to be Tampa for awhile and run it back with our cup winning roster. Make no mistake, Tampa would not lose Kadri if they were in this situation. The no state income tax BS would've saved them like it has for years. I think we're gonna end up missing Nazzy way more than we thought we would, especially when the inevitable injuries happen.

 

[Balthazar]

12M X 8 was always what made more sense for Mack.

That likely means that we'll lose Girard next year just to be able to pay Byram and Newhook.

EJ money pays Mack's raise
JTC money pays for EJ and JTC replacements
G's money and the 1M cap raise pay for Byram and Newhook

Newhook has to become our 2C

 

[redacted]

Comps don't really matter for UFAs...if a player doesn't like what is offered, they can go elsewhere and get overpaid.

 

[Richard88]

Dubois for Girard + Newhook could work in 2023 with these contracts:

MacKinnon $11m
Dubois $7.5m
Byram $5m bridge
Meyers $2m
The rest cheap roster filler

That leaves a 21 man roster with ~$750k in capspace per the Year 2 roster below.

You then commit to keeping Toews until he hits UFA, and then hope the cap rises enough to cover his inevitable raise. Alternatively you simply create the necessary capspace for Toews' raise by paying what it takes to dump Manson in 2024.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

 

[Mighty Makar]

Sid’s bday is on Sunday, so expect an extension with Nate that day.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Some highlights...

By all indications, there has been little dialogue between the two sides, even though each side has made its feelings about the other very clear. According to sources on both sides, Oettinger, who trusts his agents with the business side and is not directly involved in negotiations, wants to remain with the Stars. The Stars, who traded up in the first round of the 2017 draft to select Oettinger, believe he is their future and have no reservations about Oettinger as a person.

If $3.979 million is the baseline, how high does Oettinger’s number go? Midway through the 2020-21 season, Vancouver handed fellow American goaltender Thatcher Demko a five-year, $25 million deal for a $5 million AAV. At the time Demko signed his deal, he was older than Oettinger today (25 to 23), had a smaller sample size (59 starts to 70 starts) and had inferior career statistics (.911 save percentage and 2.92 GAA to .913 save percentage and 2.46 GAA).

The 13 netminders above the $5 million AAV mark are some of the more established players, many with Stanley Cup and/or Vezina considerations. There have been a number of other players considered by Oettinger’s camp as comps but these couple of transactions from last year show where the valuation of a contract between $4 million AAV and somewhere around $5 million AAV comes into play.

The Stars have their own considerations that make meeting that price point somewhat challenging. The first is their salary-cap situation. Dallas has $11.4 million in cap space but has to fit in Oettinger and Jason Robertson, who is coming off of a Calder Trophy runner-up season and a 40-goal season to begin his NHL career. Robertson’s contract will certainly be more expensive than Oettinger’s. According to a source, those negotiations have had their own obstacles.

If the Stars met Oettinger’s camp at their minimum desired price point, it would leave the team a little over $7 million to sign Robertson. That could still be enough to get Robertson signed on a bridge deal but barring a hometown discount, a long-term deal would require north of $8 million. Oettinger’s camp is understanding of the Stars’ cap situation, including the opportunity to potentially cash in in 2025, but that won’t result in a steep discount.

In any contract negotiation, there are two major sticking points: Term and AAV. A source said Oettinger’s camp is open when it comes to term. Oettinger wants to be in Dallas long-term and if a long-term deal is able to get done, that’s great. If the numbers game results in a shorter offer, they’re open to that as well. The AAV is where there isn’t unconditional flexibility. Given the Stars’ cap situation, it’s unlikely Oettinger’s camp will be able to get exactly what they want but they won’t settle for something they deem to be unfair relative to the market that has already been set.

 

[ABasin]

12M X 8 was always what made more sense for Mack.

That likely means that we'll lose Girard next year just to be able to pay Byram and Newhook.

EJ money pays Mack's raise
JTC money pays for EJ and JTC replacements
G's money and the 1M cap raise pay for Byram and Newhook

Newhook has to become our 2C

Byram and Newhook will cost more than Girard's salary.

 

[shadow1]

12M X 8 was always what made more sense for Mack.

That likely means that we'll lose Girard next year just to be able to pay Byram and Newhook.

EJ money pays Mack's raise
JTC money pays for EJ and JTC replacements
G's money and the 1M cap raise pay for Byram and Newhook

Newhook has to become our 2C

The pressure for Newhook to become the 2C is from his own side. If he only looks like a middle-6 winger again this year, he'll just be dealt to bring in a 2C (assuming one isn't already in place).

The money will come from Girard or Toews being dealt sometime within the next calendar year (my money is on Toews).

 

[Pokecheque]

I'm frustrated we didn't get to be Tampa for awhile and run it back with our cup winning roster. Make no mistake, Tampa would not lose Kadri if they were in this situation. The no state income tax BS would've saved them like it has for years. I think we're gonna end up missing Nazzy way more than we thought we would, especially when the inevitable injuries happen.

That state income tax thing has always been and always will be overstated. Colorado didn't lose Kadri because of income tax, their cap situation just can't accommodate a guy who rightfully wants to get paid in what will likely be his final big contract in the NHL. Tampa was able to skirt the cap for years because they just happened to draft and develop an elite 1-2 center tandem in-house. They didn't have to really drop big coin on Point and Cirelli until recently. They also have an elite goalie in net, which allows a ton of leeway in roster construction. The Avs just haven't been nearly as good at getting value out of lower rounds like Tampa has.

 

[LOFIN]

That state income tax thing has always been and always will be overstated. Colorado didn't lose Kadri because of income tax, their cap situation just can't accommodate a guy who rightfully wants to get paid in what will likely be his final big contract in the NHL.

Someone can tell me how off I am with this, but from what I've understood you can basically easily circumvent the tax difference between teams by loading the contract with signing bonuses, and the player living in a low-tax state.

Auston Matthews is paid only league minimum in salary, that's where the Toronto taxes hit. He gets his signing bonuses based on his primary residence being in Arizona, which you guessed it, has a fairly low state tax.

At least this is what I'm lead to believe. These top guys have their own accountants who are paid to figure this stuff out so they get the maximum amount of money. It's not that much about the taxes, it's about the organizations willingnes to give out the money as signing bonuses.

 

[Balthazar]

Byram and Newhook will cost more than Girard's salary.

I said Girard's salary + the 1M cap increase. That's 6M total and it should cover Byram's and Newhook's raises.

Keep in mind that both are already making ~900k each.

That's enough for Byram at 5M and Newhook at 2.8M. They can always cheat and use some of the JTC money to compensate if need be.

 

[redacted]

Someone can tell me how off I am with this, but from what I've understood you can basically easily circumvent the tax difference between teams by loading the contract with signing bonuses, and the player living in a low-tax state.

Auston Matthews is paid only league minimum in salary, that's where the Toronto taxes hit. He gets his signing bonuses based on his primary residence being in Arizona, which you guessed it, has a fairly low state tax.

At least this is what I'm lead to believe. These top guys have their own accountants who are paid to figure this stuff out so they get the maximum amount of money. It's not that much about the taxes, it's about the organizations willingnes to give out the money as signing bonuses.

Signing bonuses, like the NHL's version, have a wrinkle... they are not based on residency of the player, but where the bonus comes from. So Matthews is taxed as if he is in Toronto.... but here is a further wrinkle... the tax treaty specifies that because Matthews is an American citizen, he is only taxed 15% (I'm a few years out of the loop on cross border taxes so it might be slightly different) where that amount can be offset against his US federal taxes where he will be taxed at the full federal rate. No state can claim direct nexus on his signing bonus because it originates in Canada.

TLDR... Americans getting signing bonuses in Canada get a steal on taxes. They could live in Cali and tell Cali to get bent (though California is suing for nexus currently).

Also... any athlete that doesn't have a team of accountants getting tax advantages is simply giving money away. They can easily pay under 30-35% if they are savvy, no matter where they live.

 

[LOFIN]

So basically the point stands as, the tax differences between the NHL teams are VASTLY overstated, the players will get paid regardless of where they sign.

I can think of plenty of other reasons to play for the Florida Panthers instead of the Calgary Flames (or any Canadian team for that matter) that have nothing to do with money...

 

[redacted]

So basically the point stands as, the tax differences between the NHL teams are VASTLY overstated, the players will get paid regardless of where they sign.

I can think of plenty of other reasons to play for the Florida Panthers instead of the Calgary Flames (or any Canadian team for that matter) that have nothing to do with money...

Oh yeah... the whole thing is nothing but noise. If anything, playing in Canada has a tax advantage (can defer income and pay an absurdly low rate). In the reality of these players... we're talking 3-5% if players are smart (which not all are).

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[AvsWraith]

That state income tax thing has always been and always will be overstated. Colorado didn't lose Kadri because of income tax, their cap situation just can't accommodate a guy who rightfully wants to get paid in what will likely be his final big contract in the NHL. Tampa was able to skirt the cap for years because they just happened to draft and develop an elite 1-2 center tandem in-house. They didn't have to really drop big coin on Point and Cirelli until recently. They also have an elite goalie in net, which allows a ton of leeway in roster construction. The Avs just haven't been nearly as good at getting value out of lower rounds like Tampa has.

Even if the Avs did get the same value out of lower rounds, they still wouldn't have gotten the same RFA deals that Tampa did. Point, Johnson, Palat, Killorn, etc. They all took deals to stay in Tampa. Point signed for 6.75M after a 92 point season (41G, 51A). Tell me the Avs would get that deal.

 

[UnkleKraker]

I'm frustrated we didn't get to be Tampa for awhile and run it back with our cup winning roster. Make no mistake, Tampa would not lose Kadri if they were in this situation. The no state income tax BS would've saved them like it has for years. I think we're gonna end up missing Nazzy way more than we thought we would, especially when the inevitable injuries happen.

Yep, losing Kadri is going to hurt. Bura a little but he ghosts too often. We have some guys who can step up and relieve some of this pain though. And we have that cup thing. I will smile well into the season.

 

[redacted]

Even if the Avs did get the same value out of lower rounds, they still wouldn't have gotten the same RFA deals that Tampa did. Point, Johnson, Palat, Killorn, etc. They all took deals to stay in Tampa. Point signed for 6.75M after a 92 point season (41G, 51A). Tell me the Avs would get that deal.

Tampa has built a culture and followed through with the promises. The core guys take a bridge and then Tampa rewards them at the end with rich long-term deal. Avs simply don't have that same history and trust with agents and players built up.

 

[AvsWraith]

Tampa has built a culture and followed through with the promises. The core guys take a bridge and then Tampa rewards them at the end with rich long-term deal. Avs simply don't have that same history and trust with agents and players built up.

The fact that they are able to get the bridge, when no one takes the bridge anymore, definitely says something.

 

[redacted]

The fact that they are able to get the bridge, when no one takes the bridge anymore, definitely says something.

It is quite simply because they have followed through with the promises after each bridge. Each guy that has gotten one, has gotten a really nice payday at the end. People screamed about Serg and Cernak's deals this summer... but that is part of it. Tampa got them cheap for 3 seasons, now they have to pay. They did the same with Point, Cirelli, Vasi, Kuch, Palat, Gourde, and Killorn. When you can take that record to every player and their agent, you can get them to work with you. The downside is you can't start getting cold feet on rewarding the players... if Tampa played hardball with Point and didn't reward him last summer... they don't get the next set of deals done so easily.

 

[Avaholic29]

f*** Tampa.

 

[Pokecheque]

Even if the Avs did get the same value out of lower rounds, they still wouldn't have gotten the same RFA deals that Tampa did. Point, Johnson, Palat, Killorn, etc. They all took deals to stay in Tampa. Point signed for 6.75M after a 92 point season (41G, 51A). Tell me the Avs would get that deal.

It was a three-year bridge deal, they're going to be paying BP way more than that now. Kucherov took a bridge deal too, but like him, Stamkos, and all the others, when it came time to buy prime UFA years, they had to pay up.

And while the circumstances were obviously different, it ain't like the Avs didn't have extremely good value contracts on the books themselves. MacKinnon's is the most obvious one, but Kadri was acquired with a very team-friendly cap hit. Landeskog played through most of his prime years at 7 X 5.5. He easily exceeded that value for pretty much the entire life of the deal.

So I don't think Tampa's situation is all that different. Yes, their success and reputation as a well-run organization may have convinced key players to hold off on their big paydays a little longer than if they were on other teams, but those players all still got them nevertheless.

f*** Tampa.

Avs already did that.

 

[ANewHope]

Even if the Avs did get the same value out of lower rounds, they still wouldn't have gotten the same RFA deals that Tampa did. Point, Johnson, Palat, Killorn, etc. They all took deals to stay in Tampa. Point signed for 6.75M after a 92 point season (41G, 51A). Tell me the Avs would get that deal.

I know people will point to him being a RFA instead of a UFA but with how the league is going I really do think Makar gave the Avs a much bigger discount than some realize. Nobody on the defensive end really compared to Makar's numbers/what he did early in his career and what his future projected as. It's a different position but I genuinely believe Makar could have bent the Avs over like Matthews did with Toronto. He had the ability to re-set the market as a RFA.

 

[redacted]

I know people will point to him being a RFA instead of a UFA but with how the league is going I really do think Makar gave the Avs a much bigger discount than some realize. Nobody on the defensive end really compared to Makar's numbers/what he did early in his career and what his future projected as. It's a different position but I genuinely believe Makar could have bent the Avs over like Matthews did with Toronto. He had the ability to re-set the market as a RFA.

Makar actually did reset the environment as a RFA. He could have pushed for more and gotten it… this was the compromise on the 6 years. He got half mil more than Miro with 2 less years. Then Fox’s deal was based right on Makar’s.

 

[AvsWraith]

I know people will point to him being a RFA instead of a UFA but with how the league is going I really do think Makar gave the Avs a much bigger discount than some realize. Nobody on the defensive end really compared to Makar's numbers/what he did early in his career and what his future projected as. It's a different position but I genuinely believe Makar could have bent the Avs over like Matthews did with Toronto. He had the ability to re-set the market as a RFA.

It's a good thing he wasn't due for a new contract this summer after what he did this season. He legit might be the best player in the NHL. He and McDavid are at least 1A and 1B, no homer either. Think about how many defensemen win the Con Smythe... That contract is now the biggest steal in the league.