Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)

[AvsCOL]

Man I hate that Manson signing more and more every day. Not only is he making 4.5mil, but EJ is making 6mil. That's effectively our 5th/6th defensemen making 10.5 million while we look for a second line centre. Brutal.

 

[redacted]

Everything Dom laid out is valid though. I didn't want Kuemper back no matter what but Georgiev is still a huge question mark. Same goes for Burakovsky but he had some big moments in the playoffs and won't be easy to replace internally.

So right now the Avs have come down to the level of other teams but I think they still have some moves in them. There will be a Kadri replacement, maybe not someone as good as him but I trust them enough to say they'll get a solid player. We might also still see an underrated pick up at the request of the analytics staff.

Yup... say Kadri is gone and Dom's model predicts a tad less than 6 wins gone. That's 11 points... his model last year had the Avs at 113, so ~102 or thereabouts. In his traditional rankings that goes from the clearcut top team to a level that he predicted Boston at last year. Avs are likely more in the 3-7 range in his ranking this year as they sit.

We don't know the full story and we might not have a clear picture, but there is a lot of sunshine and roses around all the roster issues being solved when the Avs are looking straight in the face of losing 2 2nd liners and a starting goalie. With very limited cap to make up for that loss.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Yup... say Kadri is gone and Dom's model predicts a tad less than 6 wins gone. That's 11 points... his model last year had the Avs at 113, so ~102 or thereabouts. In his traditional rankings that goes from the clearcut top team to a level that he predicted Boston at last year. Avs are likely more in the 3-7 range in his ranking this year as they sit.

We don't know the full story and we might not have a clear picture, but there is a lot of sunshine and roses around all the roster issues being solved when the Avs are looking straight in the face of losing 2 2nd liners and a starting goalie. With very limited cap to make up for that loss.

Need clarity Hench.
The 113 point projection, is that at the beginning of last season or post deadline?

 

[redacted]

There is absolutely no disagreement from the logic. It absolutely makes sense. Again, Doms model had last years version of the Avs as quite possibly the greatest team ever assembled.

There was practically no way for them to not have a massive downgrade, again, based on his models.
They made several additions at the deadline. Had we not acquired Lehkonen, or Manson or Cogliano at the deadline last year, and instead added them this off-season, where would we be on the list?

But overall, again, I don’t disagree with the logic. It’s a model.
It without a final ranking, it kinda leaves us without a list lacking a lot of context. If the Avs were first, are last on this list, but still top 3, then at least it adds context to each teams original baseline.

~6 wins is quite a bit... IIRC the Avs were 4 points above Toronto in his model... So going from 2 wins above to 4 wins below (as just a reference in last year's ranking).

Lehk will be a positive. Manson and Cogliano will be a negative. Probably balance out or close to it.

 

[Balthazar]

Losing Bura and Kadri will hurt like hell when guys are starting to get injured. It will happen and won't be pretty.

 

[redacted]

Need clarity Hench.
The 113 point projection, is that at the beginning of last season or post deadline?

Beginning... these things can be looked up btw

 

[EdAVSfan]

Beginning... these things can be looked up btw

Yeah I know sorry. It would’ve taken me forever to get that.

Ok. I just need to understand.
At the beginning of last year, Doms model had us as a 113 point team. Then we made a few additions during the season. We don’t know what the post deadline team projected as. Could’ve been 120 or even 130 for all we know.

So what’s the point of removing the 6ish wins from the beginning season projection when Dom isn’t even doing that? Either we compare last seasons starting projection to this seasons EXCLUDING the deadline additions, OR we get the post deadline projections and compare.

 

[letsgoavs1921]

Everyone chill the F out. We have the whole damn D core back and it will be better than what we had last year. Manson for a whole year, Byram for a whole year and improved. Forwards we found a way to pretty much keep everyone except Kadri and Burk. Stinks but reality is there is cap. Goaltending could be better if George gets it goin. At worst, Frank is close to what we got from Keumper.

Bottom line we will be in the playoffs and be one of the 5-6 teams with a legit shot to win it. While the core is signed for the next few years. What more could you want?

 

[hughdreamz]

We have the best D group in the NHL and were complaining???

 

[EdAVSfan]

Everyone chill the F out. We have the whole damn D core back and it will be better than what we had last year. Manson for a whole year, Byram for a whole year and improved. Forwards we found a way to pretty much keep everyone except Kadri and Burk. Stinks but reality is there is cap. Goaltending could be better if George gets it goin. At worst, Frank is close to what we got from Keumper.

Bottom line we will be in the playoffs and be one of the 5-6 teams with a legit shot to win it. While the core is signed for the next few years. What more could you want?

Yeahhhh, everyone in here is pretty chill right now and simply discussing.

 

[chet1926]

We have the best D group in the NHL and were complaining???

Right it's nuts. I figured that since we won the Cup it would be a bit more calm around here. But the compete opposite has happened.

I've read some of the dumbest shit in this thread from trade Byram, to 29 is going to fall off a cliff by 30 to trade Rantanen etc.

I mean the only I give a shit about at this point is how they resolve the 2C dilemma and getting 29 extended.

Overall they've had a great summer by getting basically everyone back except Kadri, who was super unlikely anyways, for next season.

 

[redacted]

Yeah I know sorry. It would’ve taken me forever to get that.

Ok. I just need to understand.
At the beginning of last year, Doms model had us as a 113 point team. Then we made a few additions during the season. We don’t know what the post deadline team projected as. Could’ve been 120 or even 130 for all we know.

So what’s the point of removing the 6ish wins from the beginning season projection when Dom isn’t even doing that? Either you compare last seasons starting projection to this seasons EXCLUDING the deadline additions, OR we get the post deadline projections and compare.

I can tell you his model isn't built where a 120/130 team is possible. We can look at GSVA on his previous models and see Lehk is +.4, Manson -.2, Cogliano -.1, NAK was +.1, Sturm was +1.1, and Jost was +.7... so we have a net up of .6. In his model that is a JTC level player... fairly inconsequential.

Now let's keep going. Kuemper to George is a +1.9 to + .5downgrade. Losing Kadri is a 1.5 downgrade. Losing Burkie is a 2.2 downgrade. Lost NAK and Sturm so another 1.2 downgrade. For the +.6 up a the deadline... the Avs have lost 6.7 for a net of 6.1. This is off the beginning of last year's roster. So Kadri and Kuemper's impact is likely to be understated in GSVA, but same with Lehk. Hard to say without is ranking coming out, but that is a substantial impact. 6.1 is basically Landy and Toews put together in his model...

Simply put, it was expected and a natural consequence of things... but this team is a significant step back on paper. It went from models stating it is a very clear top team (at least top 3) to one that is certainly behind a few teams. Tweaks can happen to change the outlook, but on paper... the team is likely to take a step back. The question is the step back big enough to not win the Cup?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Man I hate that Manson signing more and more every day. Not only is he making 4.5mil, but EJ is making 6mil. That's effectively our 5th/6th defensemen making 10.5 million while we look for a second line centre. Brutal.

Yup the Manson deal is just absolutely brutal. Didn't learn one bit from the EJ deal which is still having a profound impact on the team today.


They really should have said thanks for helping us win a cup, enjoy retirement in Anaheim!

Yup... say Kadri is gone and Dom's model predicts a tad less than 6 wins gone. That's 11 points... his model last year had the Avs at 113, so ~102 or thereabouts. In his traditional rankings that goes from the clearcut top team to a level that he predicted Boston at last year. Avs are likely more in the 3-7 range in his ranking this year as they sit.

We don't know the full story and we might not have a clear picture, but there is a lot of sunshine and roses around all the roster issues being solved when the Avs are looking straight in the face of losing 2 2nd liners and a starting goalie. With very limited cap to make up for that loss.

And it only gets even worse next year. But Y'know "Look at this core we have, how could we ever lose again"

 

[redacted]

And it only gets even worse next year. But Y'know "Look at this core we have, how could we ever lose again"

The #1 reason why I want the Avs to push hard for a 2C, even if it hurts future years 4-5-6-7+ years down the road is that winning will continue to get harder and harder. When you still have a clear shot (and a legit 2C would put the Avs as very clear favorites), you take that shot.

 

[ANewHope]

I don’t think anybody thinks we’ll never lose again. If you remember there was people pushing for regression last off-season. A narrative about us benefitting from a weak division. Than we steam rolled the league.

We’re going to be worse most likely without Kadri but we don’t even know the final roster yet. What will Byram look like healthy for a full season? Does Newhook improve? Meyers? Do we keep the defensive core together or does Girard get moved?

 

[EdAVSfan]

I can tell you his model isn't built where a 120/130 team is possible. We can look at GSVA on his previous models and see Lehk is +.4, Manson -.2, Cogliano -.1, NAK was +.1, Sturm was +1.1, and Jost was +.7... so we have a net up of .6. In his model that is a JTC level player... fairly inconsequential.

Now let's keep going. Kuemper to George is a +1.9 to + .5downgrade. Losing Kadri is a 1.5 downgrade. Losing Burkie is a 2.2 downgrade. Lost NAK and Sturm so another 1.2 downgrade. For the +.6 up a the deadline... the Avs have lost 6.7 for a net of 6.1. This is off the beginning of last year's roster. So Kadri and Kuemper's impact is likely to be understated in GSVA, but same with Lehk. Hard to say without is ranking coming out, but that is a substantial impact. 6.1 is basically Landy and Toews put together in his model...

Simply put, it was expected and a natural consequence of things... but this team is a significant step back on paper. It went from models stating it is a very clear top team (at least top 3) to one that is certainly behind a few teams. Tweaks can happen to change the outlook, but on paper... the team is likely to take a step back. The question is the step back big enough to not win the Cup?

Hmmm, thanks for all the added context. Helps to get a clearer picture.

The biggest humps for me to contend with are the goaltending, and what moves the Avs make over the course of the season. I find it extremely hard to be able to fully accept the projections of who Kuemper was on this team vs who Georgiev was on the Rangers. Itll be a huge question mark going into the season. By your own admission, Kuemper is an average goalie who essentially put up top 3 regular season numbers here. Was that Kuemper exceeding? Was it the Avs making him exceed? Will it have the same effect on Georgiev like it had on Kuemper and Grubauer?
The model at least gives us a good idea of where the Avs should fall in the regular season.

Obviously, just like last season, the moves made from now to the deadline will outline whether we're one of the favorites or THE favorite.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

The #1 reason why I want the Avs to push hard for a 2C, even if it hurts future years 4-5-6-7+ years down the road is that winning will continue to get harder and harder. When you still have a clear shot (and a legit 2C would put the Avs as very clear favorites), you take that shot.

Yep completely agreed.


I wish they would just go get JT Miller right now honestly. At 50%, you can fit him into the roster no problem right now and still have some wiggle room for the deadline.

 

[redacted]

This is an argument against my own belief... but a legit argument against going to the cap this year is the 3.35m in potential bonuses that are hanging out there. Now likely only 2-2.5m are likely to be hit, but most of the bonuses lie in Byram... the other are with Newhook... both players who will very likely have an expanded role.

If 2.5m in bonuses are hit and the Avs end with zero cap room... well, suddenly the effective cap next year goes from 83.5m to 81m. We see the crunch of next year is already tough... make it LESS than the cap of the last 3 years, well... next offseason will be really rough.

 

[AvsFan29]

I figured that since we won the Cup it would be a bit more calm around here. But the compete opposite has happened.

That was last season!

 

[Perratrooper]

I honestly think the Avs are done making moves for the off-season. Rantanen is going to be asked to carry a line and if he’s unable to do that we’re going to have some problems.

 

[chet1926]

I honestly think the Avs are done making moves for the off-season. Rantanen is going to be asked to carry a line and if he’s unable to do that we’re going to have some problems.

I could see them asking Rants to play 2C or at least being the focal point of the line.

Also see a depth center being brought in on a 1 year 1-1.5M deal. Like Pauly Walnuts.

Also fully expect a 29 signing. It better happen before the season or they are risking a ton. No way you go into this year without him under contract. It would be a complete failure on managements part to not have him locked up.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Everything Dom laid out is valid though. I didn't want Kuemper back no matter what but Georgiev is still a huge question mark. Same goes for Burakovsky but he had some big moments in the playoffs and won't be easy to replace internally.

So right now the Avs have come down to the level of other teams but I think they still have some moves in them. There will be a Kadri replacement, maybe not someone as good as him but I trust them enough to say they'll get a solid player. We might also still see an underrated pick up at the request of the analytics staff.

No question mark. He sucks and will cost the Avs atleast 9-10 games by himself this season. Losing Bura will also suck even though I was sick of his hot and cold play guy is good for 50 points every year. You aint going get that from anyone internally this season. The Avs will regress but who cares so long as they show out in the playoffs.

I honestly think the Avs are done making moves for the off-season. Rantanen is going to be asked to carry a line and if he’s unable to do that we’re going to have some problems.

Mikko shouldnt be 2C. They putting him in a position to fail with this. Get a 2C and let Mikko stay on the RW where hes an elite contributor.

 

[UncleRisto]

Yeahhhh, everyone in here is pretty chill right now and simply discussing.

Yeah, and if you don't get that then you can f*** off!!!

 

[redacted]

As currently constructed, I would absolutely try Rants at 2C. If it works, problem solved. If it doesn't, back to square 1. Really no harm lost in it. I would likely sign Stastny or similar as a backup though. Won't be a ton of money, but a plan E/F until something can be figured out.

 

[Mighty Makar]

Sign Stastny and trade for Miller at the deadline.