Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)

[Cypher]

Avs just need to somehow work thru these next 2 years, then the cap will go up much higher than by just 1 mill; since the escrow will be repaid from the COVID seasons.

 

[Balthazar]

I was just mapping out a roster for next season and they’ll most likely need to run someone like LOC on the 3rd line to bring back Newhook and Meyers.

You definitely can’t pay all the 3rd liners $3M, but one of them shouldn’t be an issue. Then they probably bring in a depth guy at the deadline with whatever cap they’ve accumulated throughout the year.

Even just one of them is an issue. That's why we so desperately need JTC's money.

I don’t think most of us are into being told by hf posters what the roster is going to be, like it’s concrete evidence.

You're definitely in the wrong thread if you don't like roster projection.

 

[Hasbro]

Yeah, I do think the Manson contract is steep.

I would’ve felt more comfortable with him at $3.5M.

Honestly though, a lot of number 4 D get overpaid. It happens every year. I’m confident Manson would’ve gotten that deal on the open market.

I think the Avs felt it was worth paying for Manson’s physicality. He’s really not a world beater defensively, it’s the physicality that he brings that’s valuable. And his skating is still pretty good right now.

Still think they signed Manson to term knowing they’d move one of their other defenceman this off-season, or next.

Can't place a value on shutting Size Queens up.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

The thing is... What happens if Meyers then also plays really well this year and solidifies himself as a legit 3C?


He's an RFA without Arb rights I believe so you can probably squeeze him down to like ~2M on a 2 year deal but still... Newhook gets $3.5M, Meyers gets $2M... On top of the tight cap already.


Something simply will have to give. Even more then just "Eh let's just ship Girard out"

 

[zxcvnm]

The thing is... What happens if Meyers then also plays really well this year and solidifies himself as a legit 3C?


He's an RFA without Arb rights I believe so you can probably squeeze him down to like ~2M on a 2 year deal but still... Newhook gets $3.5M, Meyers gets $2M... On top of the tight cap already.


Something simply will have to give. Even more then just "Eh let's just ship Girard out"

I know you don’t mean it like that but players outperforming their contract and expectations is a good problem to have, especially while the Avs control their rights.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I know you don’t mean it like that but players outperforming their contract and expectations is a good problem to have, especially while the Avs control their rights.

It's a good problem to have sure... Still a problem though.


I think Meyers turning into a 3C and a good one next year would actually be great. Home grown talent and again as an RFA you can squeeze him down a fair bit. Having our 3C(And a really good one) making only $2M for the 2023/4 and 2024/5 seasons would be great. Center is also the most important position to fill in hockey, so if there's one area you want to overpay to make sure you're really strong in that area, it's Center.


I guess the absolute best, best possible scenario for the Avs next year IMO would be this. Newhook actually breaks out as the 2C in a big way. Talking ~60 point season playing the majority of the season as the 2C, and being effective at both ends of the ice, driving play, etc. While at the same time, Meyers establishes himself as a quality two-way 3C that can kill penalties, play strong defense and also chips in ~30 points.

If they both did that... Yeah next year gets even uglier cap space wise, but you sign Newhook to a ~3x4.5M bridge deal and get Meyers on a 3x2.5M bridge deal, and then you've got your 1C, 2C, and 3C locked up for at least 3 years.



Then you've got:


Landy - Mack - Nuke
Lehky - Newhook - Mikko
???? - Meyers - ????
LOC - ???? - ????


Toews - Makar
Byram - Manson
???? - ????
MacDermid

George/Frank


At this point, you're looking at roughly $75M spent on that roster. About ~8.5M in space to fill the rest of it out. Average of $1M per player which actually isn't awful. A couple ELC guys would go a long way here at this point in helping make it possible as well. Olausson being able to slot in on the 3rd line RW for example, Behrens being able to fill the 3LD spot... Then you target another young ELC sort in a Girard trade.


IMO this would be the best case sort of scenario playing out next year. Newhook taking the 2C spot and running with it while Meyers takes over the 3C role and does great in it. Then you can squeeze them on bridge deals in RFA and maybe come up with an extra $2-3M in space we wouldn't get if we had to fill those roles by going outside the organization.

 

[Richard88]

That doesn't make any sense. You don't trade Girard or Toews to make room for expensive 3rd liners.

... especially when the forward market is as cheap as it is, with players like Heinen, Balcers, Janmark, etc signing one year deals for $750k-$1.25m.

 

[Chiarelli]

Byfield is a bust - been saying that for 2.5-3 years now. He’s only reaffirmed that over time. Not sure how people think everything will just click for him magically over night.

 

[Chiarelli]

Also, pretty sure our boy Cale is the reason teams are drafting guys like Byfield high now and even Slaf this year. No one wants to miss on the next Makar for the safe pick.
Tho I do think Slaf will be a good one.

 

[Avaholic29]

Hopefully everyone sucks next season so they don’t potentially ask for money…. Lol definitely time to use the mute button.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Avs just need to somehow work thru these next 2 years, then the cap will go up much higher than by just 1 mill; since the escrow will be repaid from the COVID seasons.

I think this is a key piece that's being ignored in this discussion.


I think we WILL be able to afford 3M 3rd liners next year because we will only have to pay them ~1M (see Heinen). Players and agents understand the market. They know money is tight and will be next season. I think we see a lot of FAs next year sign cheap 1 yr deals in a good market/situation for them to cash in the next season once the cap rises. We are acting like the market will not adjust to the constraints. If that's the case there will be a lot of players not playing hockey because we are actually one of the best cap-structured teams out there, especially as contenders.

 

[Ararana]

Cale Makar when he hears the Avs are missing the playoffs in 2-3 years:

View attachment 574543

He'll be window shopping Calgary properties on Zillow around that time.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Seeing all the teams that are cheating cap, I don’t see anyway for us not to play the same game. It’ll be interesting to see if there is a way we can cheat or take advantage of some loopholes because we are putting ourselves at a serious disadvantage by not.

After not playing again next season, the Avs will trade for Carey Price (finally). He does end up being the savior of the franchise as was predicted by Habs fans, but it's because he gives the Avs an additional 10 million to play around with.

 

[redacted]

Which NHL teams improved the most this summer? Ranking the work of all 32 GMs

Here’s how much each team has changed this offseason, from most value added to most value subtracted.

theathletic.com

 

[EdAVSfan]

Which NHL teams improved the most this summer? Ranking the work of all 32 GMs

Here’s how much each team has changed this offseason, from most value added to most value subtracted.

theathletic.com

nothing too surprising. Bad teams at the top. Good teams at the bottom.

Slightly premature since most rosters arent finalized.

Also, when is comparison based on? Ending roster for last season? Beginning roster of last season?

 

[John Mandalorian]

Cale Makar when he hears the Avs are missing the playoffs in 2-3 years:

View attachment 574543

"What it's like doing everything wrong?"

It's almost like it's written by the same people that are sending scam emails in broken English.

 

[redacted]

nothing too surprising. Bad teams at the top. Good teams at the bottom.

Slightly premature since most rosters arent finalized.

Also, when is comparison based on? Ending roster for last season? Beginning roster of last season?

End of the season rosters. I'd say bad at top and good at bottom is a broad brush. Caps are not an elite team, but a good team that makes the playoffs... they are #3. Kings a team on the rise and made the playoffs #10. Nashville and Dallas were both playoff teams and in the top 10. Blackhawks terrible team and got worse #28. San Jose similar but #22.

The Avs were #25... but... "Colorado’s spot on this list hinges on what we will call Schrodinger’s Kadri. Right now, he’s not in or out of the lineup, but at nearly three wins of expected value he’s the difference between Colorado being 25th on this list and Colorado being dead last with a bullet. He would represent a big hit to the team’s chances of repeating as champions."

 

[EdAVSfan]

End of the season rosters. I'd say bad at top and good at bottom is a broad brush. Caps are not an elite team, but a good team that makes the playoffs... they are #3. Kings a team on the rise and made the playoffs #10. Nashville and Dallas were both playoff teams and in the top 10. Blackhawks terrible team and got worse #28. San Jose similar but #22.

The Avs were #25... but... "Colorado’s spot on this list hinges on what we will call Schrodinger’s Kadri. Right now, he’s not in or out of the lineup, but at nearly three wins of expected value he’s the difference between Colorado being 25th on this list and Colorado being dead last with a bullet. He would represent a big hit to the team’s chances of repeating as champions."

I really dont care much for his Colorado snippet.
Its completely understandable. The Avs added 4 players at the deadline last year. There was no way but down for them from there.
Secondly, the vast majority of his win/loss is based on goaltending and Kadri. An extremely difficult comparison to make is the goaltending. We have no idea how Georgiev will react to playing on the Avs as a starter.
Also, as for Kadri, the Avs roster is incomplete for now and isnt the playoff roster team. The avs could still address the position in season.

Going into the season, it doesnt really matter how many expected wins or losses should be expected. As is, this team is likely a top 3 western team, without any additions.
Edit: Just as an extra, Dom's models basically projected last year's team as the best team ever assembled lol. Is it surprising that we're close to the worst in terms of improvement when we're starting from an impossible beginning spot?

 

[Avs_19]

Which NHL teams improved the most this summer? Ranking the work of all 32 GMs

Here’s how much each team has changed this offseason, from most value added to most value subtracted.

theathletic.com

Sucks for the good teams at the bottom that didn't win.

Luckily, that's not the Avs. Losing talent hurts less when you're the best team in the league and defending champs.

 

[ABasin]

Or.......

TheAvsletMacKinnonwalkasaFAandsignlessexpensive1C2Candkeeptherestoftheteamtogether.


-AB, boarding up the windows and going to hide under the bed...


P.S Sorry @Bender , I just couldn't resist.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Sucks for the good teams at the bottom that didn't win.

Luckily, that's not the Avs. Losing talent hurts less when you're the best team in the league and defending champs.

Yeah that’s kinda my point.

Is there a final ranking in the end that I didn’t see? Where are these teams ranked from 1-32 following these changes?

The Avs were 1st, could be last on this list, and still be 1st or close to it.

 

[redacted]

Yeah that’s kinda my point.

Is there a final ranking in the end that I didn’t see? Where are these teams ranked from 1-32 following these changes?

The Avs were 1st, could be last on this list, and still be 1st or close to it.

The ranking of the teams isn't out... they gotta pump more articles.

I really dont care much for his Colorado snippet.
Its completely understandable. The Avs added 4 players at the deadline last year. There was no way but down for them from there.
Secondly, the vast majority of his win/loss is based on goaltending and Kadri. An extremely difficult comparison to make is the goaltending. We have no idea how Georgiev will react to playing on the Avs as a starter.
Also, as for Kadri, the Avs roster is incomplete for now and isnt the playoff roster team. The avs could still address the position in season.

Going into the season, it doesnt really matter how many expected wins or losses should be expected. As is, this team is likely a top 3 western team, without any additions.
Edit: Just as an extra, Dom's models basically projected last year's team as the best team ever assembled lol. Is it surprising that we're close to the worst in terms of improvement when we're starting from an impossible beginning spot?

Going from Kadri to nothing and Kuemper to Georgiev is a pretty substantial impact. 2C is arguably the 2nd most important forward position and a top 5 on the team. Going from Kadri who was elite at that spot last year to Compher/Newhook/Meyers is a pretty dramatic downgrade. Kuemper to George is clearly a proven starter to a questionable one who has never been a starter. I'm not Kuemper fan, but on paper that is also a significant downgrade. There is a lot of logic to the impact there.

 

[Avs_19]

Everything Dom laid out is valid though. I didn't want Kuemper back no matter what but Georgiev is still a huge question mark. Same goes for Burakovsky but he had some big moments in the playoffs and won't be easy to replace internally.

So right now the Avs have come down to the level of other teams but I think they still have some moves in them. There will be a Kadri replacement, maybe not someone as good as him but I trust them enough to say they'll get a solid player. We might also still see an underrated pick up at the request of the analytics staff.

 

[EdAVSfan]

The ranking of the teams isn't out... they gotta pump more articles.


Going from Kadri to nothing and Kuemper to Georgiev is a pretty substantial impact. 2C is arguably the 2nd most important forward position and a top 5 on the team. Going from Kadri who was elite at that spot last year to Compher/Newhook/Meyers is a pretty dramatic downgrade. Kuemper to George is clearly a proven starter to a questionable one who has never been a starter. I'm not Kuemper fan, but on paper that is also a significant downgrade. There is a lot of logic to the impact there.

There is absolutely no disagreement from the logic. It absolutely makes sense. Again, Doms model had last years version of the Avs as quite possibly the greatest team ever assembled.

There was practically no way for them to not have a massive downgrade, again, based on his models.
They made several additions at the deadline. Had we not acquired Lehkonen, or Manson or Cogliano at the deadline last year, and instead added them this off-season, where would we be on the list?

But overall, again, I don’t disagree with the logic. It’s a model.
It without a final ranking, it kinda leaves us without a list lacking a lot of context. If the Avs were first, are last on this list, but still top 3, then at least it adds context to each teams original baseline.