Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)

[Balthazar]

Seravelli says Isles would move Beauvillier to make room for Kadri.

here's the quote:

 

[EdAVSfan]

Seravelli says Isles would move Beauvillier to make room for Kadri.

I think Pagnotta said this a few days ago as well.

 

[Bender]

So the Nashville Predators said to themselves, "The Avalanche won the cup... must be because of their farm team?" :

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Kiefer Sherwood[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]RW, C[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]NSH[/TD]
[TD]$750,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Jordan Gross[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]RD[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]NSH[/TD]
[TD]$762,500[/TD]
[TD]$762,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Roland McKeown[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]RD[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]NSH[/TD]
[TD]$762,500[/TD]
[TD]$762,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Trade for Megma you f***ers!!!

 

[John Mandalorian]

I think Pagnotta said this a few days ago as well.

Didn't he say they want to trade Bailey?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Sorry I should've added the possibility part.

We all know you would never fully commit to that which is why you worded it the way you did.

If you are right in 3 years time you will make sure to remind everyone you said it and be condescending about it.

If you are wrong you will say "I only said it was possible".

Either way it's an easy out for you lol.

Of course, why would I not? Especially with all the condescending remarks towards the predictions. Of course I'll make sure those particular posters hear loud and clear they were wrong.


And of course I wouldn't fully commit to the idea.... It isn't a guarantee that it happens. That would be foolish to assume in absolutes what's going to happen in 3 years from now.

 

[ANewHope]

Fiala is already a PPG player. Kempe a 35g guy. Durzi established himself as a top 4 defensemen. Kayilev looked really dangerous in a limited rookie role. Clarke, Byfield and Turcotte have a lot to prove... especially Turcotte. That's where Kopi holding on for a year or two more helps and then simply having Danault as a backstop gives them wiggle room. If Turcotte fails, the hole is already filled. If Byfield fails though... they are unlikely to contend.

I think they could be a really, really good team this year and be a top 3 team in the West. Things have to go right though. 23-24 is a more likely start to them turning the corner. I personally think LA has done a great job re-tooling that team. Tons of young talent to fill holes while building out a solid roster. Most rebuilds end in failure, so the odds are always against it... but they should be a model for what the Avs will face down the road.

I think Byfield/Turcotte/Clarke are all likely 2-3 seasons away and right now Turcotte isn’t looking all that great. Byfield has scary potential but he’s super raw. By than Danault is 31-32, Kopitar/Quick/Doughty are likely to have declined quite abit.

I think the Kings will be very good next year but I’m not all that scared of them for multiple seasons unless there vets hang on. I think 3/5 of there best players this season were all 30+ outside of Danualt and Kempe. Teams like Ottawa/Detroit/NJ etc. are alot more scary to me 3 years from now.

Basically Fiala/Kempe/Durzi with the current vets is a lot more scary to me than what they have coming up in a season or two.

 

[Raucherhusten]

here's the quote:

So, he does what we all do: waiting and guessing. Nothing to see here ... for now!

 

[EdAVSfan]

Didn't he say they want to trade Bailey?

Yup, you’re right. Thought he said Beau, but he said Bailey.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I think Byfield/Turcotte/Clarke are all likely 2-3 seasons away and right now Turcotte isn’t looking all that great. Byfield has scary potential but he’s super raw. By than Danault is 31-32, Kopitar/Quick/Doughty are likely to have declined quite abit.

I think the Kings will be very good next year but I’m not all that scared of them for multiple seasons unless there vets hang on. I think 3/5 of there best players this season were all 30+ outside of Danualt and Kempe. Teams like Ottawa/Detroit/NJ etc. are alot more scary to me 3 years from now.

Basically Fiala/Kempe/Durzi with the current vets is a lot more scary to me than what they have coming up in a season or two.

I don’t think the Kings should scare us at all. But they have the potential to become a threat.

Thank god the Oilers don’t have the ammo or front office to build a great team, because McDrai is something that could genuinely be a problem.

 

[redacted]

I think Byfield/Turcotte/Clarke are all likely 2-3 seasons away and right now Turcotte isn’t looking all that great. Byfield has scary potential but he’s super raw. By than Danault is 31-32, Kopitar/Quick/Doughty are likely to have declined quite abit.

I think the Kings will be very good next year but I’m not all that scared of them for multiple seasons unless there vets hang on. I think 4/5 of there best players this season were all 30+ outside of Danualt. Teams like Ottawa/Detroit/NJ etc. are alot more scary to me 3 years from now.

Basically Fiala/Kempe/Durzi with the current vets is a lot more scary to me than what they have coming up in a season or two.

If any of Byfield/Turcotte/Clarke take 3 seasons, they're simply busts at that point. Primes typically start at 20-21 and players typically peak at 23-24. It isn't impossible for breakouts to happen later (and in Byfield's case specifically a year or two delay to starting his prime and having his peak at 25 wouldn't shock me), but if they are all 23-24 before they break out... the rebuild will fail. Ages 18-20 should be a very steep climb and nearing high impact. At 21-22 they should be a high impact player. Clarke and Byfield will be 20 this upcoming season, they should be high impact players by next season (23-24). Neither are make or break there, but 24-25 is certainly make or break. Turcotte needs to show something this season. 23-24 is absolutely make or break for him.

 

[Balthazar]

Turcotte needs to show something this season. 23-24 is absolutely make or break for him.

According to what I've read lately it doesnt look all that promising for him going forward

 

[lionsDen]

I don’t think the Kings should scare us at all. But they have the potential to become a threat.

Thank god the Oilers don’t have the ammo or front office to build a great team, because McDrai is something that could genuinely be a problem.

They upgraded in goal. That could very well be the piece. I think their confidence grows if he’s decent.

 

[Balthazar]

Byfield's case specifically a year or two delay to starting his prime and having his peak at 25 wouldn't shock me

Yea he was already sold as a long term project on his draft year, rare occurrence for a 2OA pick

 

[redacted]

According to what I've read lately it doesnt look all that promising for him going forward

He's played better than people think, but he's certainly not going to live up to his billing as the 5th pick. He absolutely has to show something this season (and not get concussed).

 

[ANewHope]

If any of Byfield/Turcotte/Clarke take 3 seasons, they're simply busts at that point. Primes typically start at 20-21 and players typically peak at 23-24. It isn't impossible for breakouts to happen later (and in Byfield's case specifically a year or two delay to starting his prime and having his peak at 25 wouldn't shock me), but if they are all 23-24 before they break out... the rebuild will fail. Ages 18-20 should be a very steep climb and nearing high impact. At 21-22 they should be a high impact player. Clarke and Byfield will be 20 this upcoming season, they should be high impact players by next season (23-24). Neither are make or break there, but 24-25 is certainly make or break. Turcotte needs to show something this season. 23-24 is absolutely make or break for him.

I think Byfield is pretty raw and will take some time. You can see the talent but in the games I saw he looked a few years away in terms of being a 1C. As soon as next year could still be a solid piece. Obviously isn’t typical and could be wrong. Kinda like how it took Kempe awhile to break out. I’m not impressed with Turcotte at all.

I haven’t watched Clarke so just going off what I’ve read. You’d know better than me there. I just assumed 1 year in the AHL/half NHL season. 1-2 years to ascend to being a top pairing defender. 3 years. Kopitar is 37 by than, Quick 38, and Doughty 34. Danualt 32.

I’m sure Kings fans would hate it but if I was them I’d honestly sacrifice some youth and go all in the next 2 seasons. Keep your top prospects like Clarke/ Byfield etc. but the West is so weak right now. Pray Kopi hangs on for a season or two and Doughty stays healthy. Doughty was incredible last year when he was healthy.

 

[TheForsbergShow]

Of course, why would I not? Especially with all the condescending remarks towards the predictions. Of course I'll make sure those particular posters hear loud and clear they were wrong.


And of course I wouldn't fully commit to the idea.... It isn't a guarantee that it happens. That would be foolish to assume in absolutes what's going to happen in 3 years from now.

Fair enough, I actually agree with the side that this team will have or does already have a big crunch coming and we will most likely lose a couple of our current core guys from it . I see us taking a step back somewhat in reg season sooner than later kind of like TBL this year, but still being a threat in the west until some of these unproven teams actually take a step. I guess that bringing up possibly missing playoffs stood out as an overreact to the situation.

I just don't see 8 teams in the west that would realistically be able to overpass the Avs in that time frame barring significant injuries or horrible management where we make bad signings/trades. Some teams have absolutely horrendous contracts given out to players. Hell we don't even know what this year's final team is let alone 3 years from now.

It's all projection on my part as well, just when I compare our larger contracts to every other west team, I'll gladly take our current situation as at least our contracts are to players under 30 besides Landy.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Fair enough, I actually agree with the side that this team will have or does already have a big crunch coming and we will most likely lose a couple of our current core guys from it . I see us taking a step back somewhat in reg season sooner than later kind of like TBL this year, but still being a threat in the west until some of these unproven teams actually take a step. I guess that bringing up possibly missing playoffs stood out as an overreact to the situation.

I just don't see 8 teams in the west that would realistically be able to overpass the Avs in that time frame barring significant injuries or horrible management where we make bad signings/trades. Some teams have absolutely horrendous contracts given out to players. Hell we don't even know what this year's final team is let alone 3 years from now.

It's all projection on my part as well, just when I compare our larger contracts to every other west team, I'll gladly take our current situation as at least our contracts are to players under 30 besides Landy.

And Manson now. Which was a really awful contract. Already not a great one and likely to only get worse as he continues to regress.

 

[zxcvnm]

And Manson now. Which was a really awful contract. Already not a great one and likely to only get worse as he continues to regress.


View attachment 574478

I think the Manson contract was always meant as a 2 year deal for the Avs. Based on its structure, the Avs can move him after that (he’ll have just $6.5M of it left at that point and only limited but not full trade protection). Hopefully his play doesn’t significantly decline by that point so that some team on his 12-team trade list will take him (like Anaheim). I know offloading big contracts has been particularly expensive this off-season, but it might revert a bit as GMs start to see the possibility of cap increases. In any case, viewed as a 2 year, $4.5M cap hit contract , I don’t see it as being too bad. Just have to cross our fingers on that one.

Also, based on their surplus value numbers, they’re rating him as a 4 year, $1M AAV player? Is that right? I’d be curious how they arrive at that number. I feel like his deployment with the Avs will get more out of him than a team like Anaheim.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I think the Manson contract was always meant as a 2 year deal for the Avs. Based on its structure, the Avs can move him after that (he’ll have just $6.5M of it left at that point and only limited but not full trade protection). Hopefully his play doesn’t significantly decline by that point so that some team on his 12-team trade list will take him (like Anaheim). I know offloading big contracts has been particularly expensive this off-season, but it might revert a bit as GMs start to see the possibility of cap increases. In any case, viewed as a 2 year, $4.5M cap hit contract , I don’t see it as being too bad. Just have to cross our fingers on that one.

Also, based on their surplus value numbers, they’re rating him as a 4 year, $1M AAV player? Is that right? I’d be curious how they arrive at that number. I feel like his deployment with the Avs will get more out of him than a team like Anaheim.

Yeah pretty much, He was barely above replacement level last year, and actually got worse during his time with the Avs compared to with the Ducks. On top of that, he'll be 31 years old this year and the stats have shown a pretty steep decline over the last couple years for him, a trend pretty much all models expect to continue.

Maybe he finds a second wind with the Avs and with the motivation of playing on a contender, but none of the models expect that to happen so yeah he's projected to be a very bad contract that will get worse each year.


EDIT: I think the Manson deal will have a lot to do with Byram's future here honestly.


I think, if the Avs can get Byram to sign a bridge deal next summer for say 3x5M... Then both Byram and Manson's contracts would expire that same summer. At that point you give Bo his 8x9.5M deal(Assuming he actually ends up that good of a Dman) and the $4.5M from Manson covers that raise completely.

If Byram is unwilling to sign a bridge deal next summer and decides he wants something like 6x8M instead, the Avs will probably look to trade Manson in the first 2 years of that deal. Ideally Manson's play holds up enough that he has some value to teams with 2 years left at $4.5M... But I think there's a pretty good chance he's a bad cap dump and costs quite a bit to move at that point.

 

[TheForsbergShow]

And Manson now. Which was a really awful contract. Already not a great one and likely to only get worse as he continues to regress.


View attachment 574478

Yeah it's not a great contract but he was a great add for the playoffs, he just needs to hold on for another two years or so to ease the pain. Pretty much every other team in our division alone has multiple contracts like that and worse, all while being worse than us currently and with older cores.

Coyotes and Blackhawks barely nhl teams at this point.

Blues major money tied up in over 30yo dmen for the next 4 years. Ror, kyrou and Tara (prob gone) all need new deals soon.

Dallas has Benn and Seguin tying up over 22% of their cap. Robertson and Hintz both up for new deals and Pavelski closing in on 40.

Jets have their 1c and 2c looking unhappy. Helly needs a new deal in 2 years and wheeler slowing. Mediocre defence

Preds had some pretty crazy shooting% from their guys if I remember correctly and still barely scraped into the playoffs with a Norris and Vezina level goalie.

Wild have zero cap the next few years but they might be in the best position beside us from a team standpoint.

Avs just need to be better than 5 of those teams the next few years for a guaranteed spot. I trust our front office and pro scouts more than any of those teams.

It's def going to be interesting seeing the changes and their plan since most of their moves come out of nowhere. This board will be even more of a circus lol. Poor mods

 

[zxcvnm]

Yeah pretty much, He was barely above replacement level last year, and actually got worse during his time with the Avs compared to with the Ducks. On top of that, he'll be 31 years old this year and the stats have shown a pretty steep decline over the last couple years for him, a trend pretty much all models expect to continue.

Maybe he finds a second wind with the Avs and with the motivation of playing on a contender, but none of the models expect that to happen so yeah he's projected to be a very bad contract that will get worse each year.

He was bad for most of the regular season with the Avs. There’s no denying that. During the playoffs I also remember he was bad for Game 1 against Edmonton. But other than that game against Edmonton, what were his underlying numbers in the playoffs? He didn’t play huge minutes against Tampa but with controlled deployment, he was pretty effective. At least one of the models I’ve seen downgrades him a lot for taking too many penalties which didn’t seem to be a problem in the playoffs because refs stop calling anything.

I expect that his regular season numbers will not magically become elite but I think with the right deployment alongside Byram or Girard, he will be pretty useful. And if his biggest contribution remains playoff time because the style of play so dramatically changes from the regular season, the models are simply going to undervalue him.

 

[Gumballhead]

He was bad for most of the regular season with the Avs. There’s no denying that. During the playoffs I also remember he was bad for Game 1 against Edmonton. But other than that game against Edmonton, what were his underlying numbers in the playoffs? He didn’t play huge minutes against Tampa but with controlled deployment, he was pretty effective. At least one of the models I’ve seen downgrades him a lot for taking too many penalties which didn’t seem to be a problem in the playoffs because refs stop calling anything.

I expect that his regular season numbers will not magically become elite but I think with the right deployment alongside Byram or Girard, he will be pretty useful. And if his biggest contribution remains playoff time because the style of play so dramatically changes from the regular season, the models are simply going to undervalue him.

I think it’s important for the Avs to have a tough defenseman who’s skilled enough to keep up. It’s hard to just throw out skilled guys only, you need some oxen too. That’s why the Johnsons had such a big role.

If you think of the guys the Avs have had over the years who were big and/or physical, (Z, SOB, Marchment, Ossi,’Kasparaitis) they would be bad fits on this current team. They weren’t great fits on the older models. Manson is the first one in that mold that feels like they got it right — not dumb, not slow, not past their usefulness.

 

[John Mandalorian]

The Avs did ok with Manson considering the alternatives. The alternatives must be factored in when evaluating contracts this offseason.

Simply put, the Avs don't have prospects to trade. They don't have another Helleson or Barron. The remaining prospects they have may have nothing to do with how the organization values them but moreso that they can't have no one.

And if you think keeping guys already on a SC team was expensive, trying outbidding everyone else in free agency.

It's not sufficient to evaluate them in a vacuum. There were various factors and realities in play that must be considered.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Cale Makar when he hears the Avs are missing the playoffs in 2-3 years:

 

[hughdreamz]

Not sure if this has been shared