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Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)

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Pierce Hawthorne said:
But before that, they're gonna have to retool on the fly here in the next year or two because the cap space is gonna dry up. I would say between Toews/Girard/Lehkonen/Nuke they probably lose 2/4 but possibly 3 depending on what happens with Byram and Mack and just how much they ask for.
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But they'll return something no? I would argue it'll be 2 players not 3 but even it is 3 it's not like they aren't bringing anything back right? Girard isn't getting traded for nothing. Lehky/Nuke aren't just going to disappear. They'll have to take a risk on some futures but I'd argue that's our bread and butter. Go look back at the Nuke signing thread, Bura, Toews etc.

I think that's my issue with the re-tool/window is closing people. It's certainly possible but some people act like it's a foregone conclusion. I remember after losing to Vegas people talking about how Kadri was declining, we played in a weak division, we lost Saad etc. Things are going to happen. Decline, the cap crunch, holes etc. The days of 16-4 are most likely over. Sakic/C-Mac are going to have a chance to make some moves tho. If they swing and miss? Than yeah forget 5-6 years of a competitive window but they've atleast earned a little bit of optimism.
 
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Pierce Hawthorne said:
As someone else just alluded to, it all depends on ones definition of a retool.


Personally I see it playing out like this:


2022-23: Top tier cup contender, we should be all in again trying to repeat and go back to back. The only real difference from last year's roster to this year is Kadri, and he can be replaced comfortably at the deadline. Goaltending is a also an unknown for the regular season at least.

2023-24: This would be the first year of the retool. We're almost certainly losing one of Girard/Toews this summer as we simply won't have the cap space for all 3 LHD. We might even lose a forward at this point(Lehky or Newhook would be the one we lose) because cap is going to be seriously tight next summer. This is also the summer where our depth will get trimmed even further. We're gonna have to be icing 4th line guys making 750k pretty much to fit under the cap.

They should still be a playoff team, but I would bet on this being the year we see them step back from the top of the division and possibly lose out on home ice advantage in the first round sort of thing.

2024-25: Year 2 of the retool and I would guess the toughest year. Unless the cap rises significantly, you're probably losing another core guy from the roster at this point. Probably Toews as he prices himself out of Colorado as a UFA. Also need to realize this summer is where Mikko is 1 year away from free agency.

At this point, you're probably still looking at a core group of Mack/Mikko/Gabe at forward, Byram/Makar on Defense. But it's definitely a good possibility that at this point we've lost Toews and Girard, and one of Lehky/Nuke.

The biggest factor going forward is going to be our prospects and where they're at development wise. It would do a lot for this teams future to have Behrens establishing himself as a Top 4 LD in the next 2-3 years and one or two forwards to have broken out and established themselves as Top 9 forwards.

If I had to guess a year where the Avs miss the playoffs coming up, this would be the year it happens IMO.


From that point onward, it doesn't exactly get easier either. Mikko is a UFA that next summer. And then I believe Cale a UFA the year after that. And on top of all that, Gabe is ~33, Manson is 34, Mack is ~31.


The pressure at this point is really on the scouting staff to start producing decent NHL talent in the draft. If they can do that, you might be able to go through a quick 1-2 year retool and then open a new window up for 2-3 more years with some new young players in that core.


That's how I see the ideal scenario playing out. One more year of being a cup favorite. Then a short 1-2 year retool, our scouts earn the money during this stage and find 2-3 impact players and we come out in 2025 with a new window and chance to get one more cup before the veteran guys start to really show their age.
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I don't really disagree with much of what you are saying. As you are saying the scouts will need to play a very big role. The pieces acquired from those core pieces that will need to go will have to turn out good. A couple of good UFA signings will also help a lot. And of course good drafting in the top two rounds could also help extend our window in those later years but we all know we shouldn't count on drafting when it comes to the Avs (although it looks like it might have turned a corner :crossfing)
 
ANewHope said:
But they'll return something no? I would argue it'll be 2 players not 3 but even it is 3 it's not like they aren't bringing anything back right? Girard isn't getting traded for nothing. Lehky/Nuke aren't just going to disappear. They'll have to take a risk on some futures but I'd argue that's our bread and butter. Go look back at the Nuke signing thread, Bura, Toews etc.

I think that's my issue with the re-tool/window is closing people. It's certainly possible but some people act like it's a foregone conclusion. I remember after losing to Vegas people talking about how Kadri was declining, we played in a weak division, we lost Saad etc. Things are going to happen. Decline, the cap crunch, holes etc. The days of 16-4 are most likely over. Sakic/C-Mac are going to have a chance to make some moves tho. If they swing and miss? Than yeah forget 5-6 years of a competitive window but they've atleast earned a little bit of optimism.
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Hopefully yeah. But in a flat cap world I also wouldn't say its a complete guarantee either. Bjorkstrand is a better player then Lehkonen for example and all he returned was a 4th and 5th round pick. Remember how little we gave up to get Toews to begin with. Pacioretty was literally traded for nothing as well.

But generally speaking unless we really end up f***ed next summer, trading those guys should fetch returns for sure.


Its part of the reason why I've been advocating for trading Girard/Toews for a futures haul when the time comes to trade one of them. Our cupboards aren't exactly inspiring hope right now, but perhaps you get a 1st Round pick + Top tier prospect for Toews next summer, and you get that same return for Girard the summer after that.


That's when its really up to the scouts, both pro and amateur to earn that money. Our amateur scouting has been really bad for a long time but it needs to change. Pro Scouts have been decent but we're gonna need them to really be great in the next couple of years when these significant moves get made. If we're trading for a top tier prospect they need to find the right one that will break out with this team.

As for the 2 versus 3 players... That'll depend almost entirely on what Mackinnon and Byram ultimately get. If Mack really takes a massive discount and comes in at say $10M, and the Avs bridge Byram on say a 3x5M deal(Same deal as McAvoy). Then you're paying $15M combined for the two of them. But, if Mack's discount ends up being say $12M instead of $10M, and the Avs cant bridge Byram and end up going long term at say 8x8M, then you're paying $20M for the two of them instead of $15M, which basically means good bye Lehky or good bye Girard/Toews.
 
Pierce Hawthorne said:
Our cupboards aren't exactly inspiring hope right now, but perhaps you get a 1st Round pick + Top tier prospect for Toews next summer, and you get that same return for Girard the summer after that.
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I guess this is where I disagree. I think Toews brings back a monster return. Even with 1 year left on his deal. Given what he makes and his performance? He's literally a 25+ minute 1D that puts up points. I don't think they do it but the logic behind moving him instead of Girard is obviously there. I'm not the biggest Girard fan but given his contract I think he always has value. Perhaps I'm in the minority but I think if you lose Girard/Toews there's a way to stay really competitive still as long as C-Mac/Sakic get it right. Especially with Makar/Byram.

But yeah there's alot of moving parts which is I guess my point. Way to much confidence/certainty about something that's up in the air. Even with Byram who after the playoffs I'm super high on. He could pop off next year and not even want to play second fiddle to Makar. You could be talking about a big time trade there because we can't afford them.

I guess for me when it comes to the cap crunch/age of the roster I just don't think there in a bad spot. They'll have a chance to make the right moves that sets them up well. If they do it it's yet to be seen obviously.
 
Just to give an idea of how tight the salary cap is for next year.... Lets assume best case scenario Mackinnon signs for a huge discount at just 8x10M, and the Avs are able to bridge Byram to 3x5M, the same deal McAvoy got(Also probably my favorite comparable as a player to Byram, if he's to become a #1D I think it'll be in a similar mold to McAvoy). That means for next season we have these guys already signed:

Landy(7M) - Mack(10M) - Mikko(9.25M)
Nuke(6.125M) - ???? - Lehky(4.5M)
???? - ???? - ????
LOC(1.05M) - ???? - ????
????

Toews(4.1M) - Makar(9M)
Byram(5.0M) - Manson(4.5M)
Girard(5.0M) - ????
MacDermid(950k)

Georgiev(3.4M)
Francouz(2.0M)


That's $71M. We're looking at ~$11.5M in cap space. And we would still have Newhook and Meyers as RFAs at this point. If Newhook breaks out, that $4-5M for him. Even if you fill out the rest of the 4th line, 13th forward, and 6th Dman with 750k league minimum contracts, you're left with $8.5M for an entire 3rd line and a still vacant 2C hole. Now just thing, what if Mack's discount is at 8x12M instead of 8x10M? $9.5M in cap space. What if Byram wont take a bridge deal, and they end up going 6x8M instead? $6.5M in cap space. Now factor in any potential performance bonuses Byram may hit this year and what kind of a penalty that could impose next season?

Funny enough looking at this, its a very good thing we didn't sign Kadri in the end. We simply cant afford him next year. Covid really did happen at the worst possible time for this team. The flat cap is gonna kill us.
 
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Pierce Hawthorne said:
Just to give an idea of how tight the salary cap is for next year.... Lets assume best case scenario Mackinnon signs for a huge discount at just 8x10M, and the Avs are able to bridge Byram to 3x5M, the same deal McAvoy got(Also probably my favorite comparable as a player to Byram, if he's to become a #1D I think it'll be in a similar mold to McAvoy). That means for next season we have these guys already signed:

Landy(7M) - Mack(10M) - Mikko(9.25M)
Nuke(6.125M) - ???? - Lehky(4.5M)
???? - ???? - ????
LOC(1.05M) - ???? - ????
????

Toews(4.1M) - Makar(9M)
Byram(5.0M) - Manson(4.5M)
Girard(5.0M) - ????
MacDermid(950k)

Georgiev(3.4M)
Francouz(2.0M)


That's $71M. We're looking at ~$11.5M in cap space. And we would still have Newhook and Meyers as RFAs at this point. If Newhook breaks out, that $4-5M for him. Even if you fill out the rest of the 4th line, 13th forward, and 6th Dman with 750k league minimum contracts, you're left with $8.5M for an entire 3rd line and a still vacant 2C hole. Now just thing, what if Mack's discount is at 8x12M instead of 8x10M? $9.5M in cap space. What if Byram wont take a bridge deal, and they end up going 6x8M instead? $6.5M in cap space. Now factor in any potential performance bonuses Byram may hit this year and what kind of a penalty that could impose next season?

Funny enough looking at this, its a very good thing we didn't sign Kadri in the end. We simply cant afford him next year. Covid really did happen at the worst possible time for this team. The flat cap is gonna kill us.
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Yeah I don't think that'll be the roster. We'll be forced to make a trade.

I obviously don't know for certain but I'd bet alot of money that after next season we don't have a d-core of Makar/Byram/G/Toews/Manson. I'd honestly be shocked if we roll into the playoffs with those 5 this year.
 
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Beating a dead horse but I guess my stance is the Avs aren't going to be a powerhouse forever. They aren't going to be the betting favorites. This upcoming season is probably the last chance of that if we make a move for a 2C or Newhook/Rants/Meyers does something unpredictable.

I think Colorado is in a great spot to set themselves up to be in that next tier after the 1-2 favorites. If they make the right moves they can have a fighting chance along with a couple of other teams. You need some luck obviously but we have the top talent that if Sakic/C-Mac do a decent job we can hope for things to go right playoff time and hoist the cup for awhile. 16-4 and dominating the league? Yeah that can't last but we can lose pieces, make trades, and still be a team that has a shot.
 
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EdAVSfan said:
You have several very good players who have aged gracefully and still continue to be very good players in their mid to late 30s. Some have already been mentioned in the posts.

Then you have guys like Seguin, Hall and Karlsson who are all showing signs of decline. 3 seasons ago, when these guys were 27ish, they were practically all PPG players or more. None do that anymore, and arent really that close now that theyre 30-32 years old.
Then you have guys like Marleau, Cogs etc whos skating never left and are and were exceptional skaters late in their careers.

The point? Its fascinating to me how some of how can conclusively say what will happen, regardless of what side of the argument you're on. The fact is, no one knows. Odds dont matter with things like this. Its the individual. injuries are a complete unknown and majorly affect long term sometimes.

6-8 years from now? Stop pretending like you know, you dont.
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IMO the smartest people realize how much they don’t know. Great post.
 
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ANewHope said:
Yeah I don't think that'll be the roster. We'll be forced to make a trade.

I obviously don't know for certain but I'd bet alot of money that after next season we don't have a d-core of Makar/Byram/G/Toews/Manson. I'd honestly be shocked if we roll into the playoffs with those 5 this year.
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For sure, that wont be the roster next year. Somebody from the core will have to go.


The logical choice is Girard... But even if you trade Girard and replace his roster spot with a guy making 750k, you're only freeing up $4.25M. I would argue even $4.25M in additional cap space next summer isn't going to be enough. Hence why I think we'll end up losing 2 guys next summer.
 
ANewHope said:
Beating a dead horse but I guess my stance is the Avs aren't going to be a powerhouse forever. They aren't going to be the betting favorites. This upcoming season is probably the last chance of that if we make a move for a 2C or Newhook/Rants/Meyers does something unpredictable.

I think Colorado is in a great spot to set themselves up to be in that next tier after the 1-2 favorites. If they make the right moves they can have a fighting chance along with a couple of other teams. You need some luck obviously but we have the top talent that if Sakic/C-Mac do a decent job we can hope for things to go right playoff time and hoist the cup for awhile. 16-4 and dominating the league? Yeah that can't last but we can lose pieces, make trades, and still be a team that has a shot.
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Pretty much my thoughts as well.

I’m not of the opinion that you just throw in the towel when you lose some momentum and become a lower end playoff team. I think that is inevitable at some point.

Maybe some deadline moves click, or a prospect actually hits. You don’t need to be at the top of the standings to go on a run.

Pretty much every off-season is a retool to an extent, honestly. The Avs just won the cup, so they’re just resigning all their players this off-season, but 2/3 trades, and 3/4 free agent signings would not be uncommon in a typical off-season. I don’t really see it as a negative.
 
Avs9296 said:
This has been one of the worst off seasons here on these boards that I can remember. And what make it more hilarious is that we just WON the damn cup.

I've heard it all this offseason.

Everyone is 250K overpaid
Trade Toews
Trade Girard
Trade Byram
Macks gonna be shit when he's passed 30
OMG Compher 2C
Trade Newhook Avs don't believe in him
Our window is closing


Guys calm the f*** down and go enjoy a beverage.
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Don't forget the goaltending issue
 
imo Mack’s game has rounded out in the ozone . I remember button hooks to nothing. He’s a competitor and a hard worker and knows where he is lacking. And if he continues to work on it like he has his overall offensive game I think he’ll age just fine. Although Father Time works against everyone
 
EdAVSfan said:
I think its also important that not everyone has the same definition of what a re-tool is. Some people may equate it to swapping out half your core. Others may see it as moving out 1 or 2 core pieces. Then again, some people consider a core 8 or 9 players while others see it as 5-6.
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That word/expression is a very useful goalpost moving tool that allows you to go from "the window closes with Mac's new contract" to "the window closes when the stars will be in their mid-30's and they will have to re-tool in-between"...
 
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Pierce Hawthorne said:
For sure, that wont be the roster next year. Somebody from the core will have to go.


The logical choice is Girard... But even if you trade Girard and replace his roster spot with a guy making 750k, you're only freeing up $4.25M. I would argue even $4.25M in additional cap space next summer isn't going to be enough. Hence why I think we'll end up losing 2 guys next summer.
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Ship out whoever has the lowest AE/60

Is it October yet?
 
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TheForsbergShow said:
Holy f***, in three years avs miss the playoffs?

Which teams below are actually going to bump them out. The west is filled with a bunch of mediocre teams that will have there own decisions to make.

This thread is nauseating to read.
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Is anybody really saying the Avs will miss the playoffs in 3 years?
 
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