Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)

[CobraAcesS]

Detroit of the early cap era kept going because they got steals in the draft prior to the cap and overall drafting improvement.

Funny enough though, the 08 team wasn't nearly as old as people think... Magic man was 29, Zetterburg was 27, Stuart was 28, Kronwall 27, Franzen 28, Hudler 24, Fillpula 23... Lidstrom, Osgood, and Rafalski were old AF (Chelios even older)... the meat of that team was in their prime.


I think Makar will age incredibly well. I don't agree on MacK... he doesn't have a lot of IQ to his game and he lives on absurd tools. When the tools start to slip, you see those players drop faster than IQ heavy ones. I actually think Landy is a guy that will hold up until 33 or so... he plays an IQ heavy game and tends to not push his body too hard in the regular season. Father time will get him eventually, but he will probably defy the odds longer than most expect.

Yeah people forget Datsyuk was a third line center at one point when Detroit's first core was at it's peak. Detroit really had an evolving core and then Nick Lindstrom lol. We have at least some chance there with Makar.

Yeah it's interesting how you feel about Landeskog considering your overall view. I've always seen the argument there for him aging better than expected if modern medicine was able to actually keep him together. It's a dynamic topic, and not one that will make any kind of hot take not be a risk to make lol.

I'd say Mack's work ethic and just building experience takes him further, and we just seen a player very similar to Landy just break out. Nuke is going to be huge to have around as Landy ages, and that will help Mack as well.

 

[dahrougem2]

Imagine putting Pavel Datsyuk in the same category as Joe Sakic and Mark Messier lol.

Guy had two 90+ point seasons and it's well known that even his own coach preferred Zetterberg to him defensively.

 

[redacted]

Yeah people forget Datsyuk was a third line center at one point when Detroit's first core was at it's peak. Detroit really had an evolving core and then Nick Lindstrom lol. We have at least some chance there with Makar.

Yeah it's interesting how you feel about Landeskog considering your overall view. I've always seen the argument there for him aging better than expected if modern medicine was able to actually keep him together. It's a dynamic topic, and not one that will make any kind of hot take not be a risk to make lol.

I'd say Mack's work ethic and just building experience takes him further, and we just seen a player very similar to Landy just break out. Nuke is going to be huge to have around as Landy ages, and that will help Mack as well.

Detroit was a master of late round draft value... when the rest of the league caught up on drafting, it was over for them. Having a generational defensemen does make things easier to continue. Makar is on his way to that.

If Landy has to lay it on the line like he has for the last couple playoffs in the regular season, he will age poorly. He just doesn't play like that for the regular season and I think that is good. Nuke is an aging curve I'm worried about...

Work ethic doesn't really solve traits going away or the league shifting. MacK simply needs to show higher IQ for me to think he'll age well into his mid 30s. I'm not saying he's going to fall off into barely a 3c guy... but I'd be shocked if he is better than a 2C at 34. I think people will hate this... but MacK is kinda like Rick Nash... absurd physical skill set that can be applied at a very high level and are a difference maker in their games. When that physical skill set starts to dwindle... there isn't a mental game to fall back on. You still see flashes of it but it becomes more rare. He'll age better than Nash I think, but he will face similar problems.

 

[CobraAcesS]

When it comes to averages... eventually they even out. When your talking a core, you're really talking about your 1-2Cs, Top 3D, 2 top 6 wingers, and a goalie. Sometimes you throw in another winger or 3C. Sometimes you leave out a goalie (I would). But that is the general idea... a group of 8 or 9 guys that the team is really built around. When half of that group gets above 30, no matter how good they are, it is very difficult to continue. When half of that group is 32-33+ and all but 1 or 2 are over 30.. it is damn near impossible. One or two guys exceeding for a bit doesn't change the overall average that much. Even in the heyday of no cap, those ages were hard to overcome. In the cap world it has really become impossible over time. At best you get a final year or two. Which is why I call it 5-6 at max.

Now you're right a blockbuster trade could change things, but those that re-shape cores like that are fairly rare and the assets the Avs have at their disposal are unlikely to shave a bunch of years off the core age.

What is more likely though is the Avs will face the same re-tool path that LA has had to face. The ages of the core groups line up (Avs are a bit older... more Kings' second Cup, but similar). Eventually the Kings had to accept a re-tool where I think they have been pretty successful. Results still have to play out, but about as successful as you can get with Doughty and Kopitar. I'd argue they should have started a year or two earlier and would be better off... but that is hard for an organization to accept so shortly after winning a Cup.

LA definitely should have started sooner. I liked what Boston did, but while getting Charlie they whiffed on some first rounders, and that hurt. I feel like Marchand got to a level I never thought he would offensively though, and Pasta was.. Well we all know that story lol.

Chicago and Pitt both had to retool, and were ultimately successful. All interesting and different. Those teams all really go when their defense goes though it seems. So if anyone is trying to key in on a major factor that could be a common thread, and why Byram and Makar being so young is important.

 

[redacted]

LA definitely should have started sooner. I liked what Boston did, but while getting Charlie they whiffed on some first rounders, and that hurt. I feel like Marchand got to a level I never thought he would offensively though, and Pasta was.. Well we all know that story lol.

Chicago and Pitt both had to retool, and were ultimately successful. All interesting and different. Those teams all really go when their defense goes though it seems. So if anyone is trying to key in on a major factor that could be a common thread, and why Byram and Makar being so young is important.

Both should have, but it is against the nature to do so.

I disagree on the defense being the reason... it is simply age in general.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Detroit was a master of late round draft value... when the rest of the league caught up on drafting, it was over for them. Having a generational defensemen does make things easier to continue. Makar is on his way to that.

If Landy has to lay it on the line like he has for the last couple playoffs in the regular season, he will age poorly. He just doesn't play like that for the regular season and I think that is good. Nuke is an aging curve I'm worried about...

Work ethic doesn't really solve traits going away or the league shifting. MacK simply needs to show higher IQ for me to think he'll age well into his mid 30s. I'm not saying he's going to fall off into barely a 3c guy... but I'd be shocked if he is better than a 2C at 34. I think people will hate this... but MacK is kinda like Rick Nash... absurd physical skill set that can be applied at a very high level and are a difference maker in their games. When that physical skill set starts to dwindle... there isn't a mental game to fall back on. You still see flashes of it but it becomes more rare. He'll age better than Nash I think, but he will face similar problems.

Turn Mackinnon into a shooting left winger when he loses his legs.

 

[ANewHope]

When it comes to averages... eventually they even out. When your talking a core, you're really talking about your 1-2Cs, Top 3D, 2 top 6 wingers, and a goalie. Sometimes you throw in another winger or 3C. Sometimes you leave out a goalie (I would). But that is the general idea... a group of 8 or 9 guys that the team is really built around. When half of that group gets above 30, no matter how good they are, it is very difficult to continue. When half of that group is 32-33+ and all but 1 or 2 are over 30.. it is damn near impossible. One or two guys exceeding for a bit doesn't change the overall average that much. Even in the heyday of no cap, those ages were hard to overcome. In the cap world it has really become impossible over time. At best you get a final year or two. Which is why I call it 5-6 at max.

Now you're right a blockbuster trade could change things, but those that re-shape cores like that are fairly rare and the assets the Avs have at their disposal are unlikely to shave a bunch of years off the core age.

What is more likely though is the Avs will face the same re-tool path that LA has had to face. The ages of the core groups line up (Avs are a bit older... more Kings' second Cup, but similar). Eventually the Kings had to accept a re-tool where I think they have been pretty successful. Results still have to play out, but about as successful as you can get with Doughty and Kopitar. I'd argue they should have started a year or two earlier and would be better off... but that is hard for an organization to accept so shortly after winning a Cup.

Yeah but the core is going to look vastly different in 6 years. Nobody knows what it'll be. For all we know Byram gets moved, Rants, Toews etc. We know a cap crunch is coming and Sakic/C-Mac will have to do something that much is for certain. The roster we have today literally can't exist in 5 years. Makar, Landeskog, MacKinnon are probably the 3 sure things to be here in 3 years. Those 3 aging very well would be massive for Colorado.

I'm perfectly fine with 5-6 years max. All I was saying is how MacKinnon ages means something. I'm not sure how you argue it can't. So let's say at 32 MacKinnon bucks the trend and is still somehow a middle tier/even high end 1C. Makar's still an elite 1D at 30. That's the two hardest things to build a cup winner taken care of. It makes the rest of the roster 100x easier. If MacKinnon is making 11-12 mill and falls apart and is barely a 2C at 32 than your hopes of winning a cup are probably non existent unless C-Mac has pulled something crazy off with a Toews/Girard trade or Newhook magically becomes Point 2.0 or something unrealistic like that.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Detroit was a master of late round draft value... when the rest of the league caught up on drafting, it was over for them. Having a generational defensemen does make things easier to continue. Makar is on his way to that.

If Landy has to lay it on the line like he has for the last couple playoffs in the regular season, he will age poorly. He just doesn't play like that for the regular season and I think that is good. Nuke is an aging curve I'm worried about...

Work ethic doesn't really solve traits going away or the league shifting. MacK simply needs to show higher IQ for me to think he'll age well into his mid 30s. I'm not saying he's going to fall off into barely a 3c guy... but I'd be shocked if he is better than a 2C at 34. I think people will hate this... but MacK is kinda like Rick Nash... absurd physical skill set that can be applied at a very high level and are a difference maker in their games. When that physical skill set starts to dwindle... there isn't a mental game to fall back on. You still see flashes of it but it becomes more rare. He'll age better than Nash I think, but he will face similar problems.

Mack isn't quite to the level of big that you see some players just start to deal with lower body issues, and I think he learned his lesson on bulking up. I've also seen growth in his mental game to suggest there is hope there. Hell just not doing the same thing over and over when he's frustrated is pretty huge lol.

Mack definitely will do better for himself staying light as long as possible. I've always agreed with your take on that. More muscle takes more oxygen, it's pretty simple. I've watched plenty of big dudes turn into a pile of nothing when shit gets real difficult for long stretches.

Nuke is smart, and he has Landy to look over at. We'll see on that one. I liked his comment about seeing how hard Mack worked, and applying it to himself.

 

[forsbergavs32]

Walks into 3 new pages of the thread, lets see whats in the thread.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Both should have, but it is against the nature to do so.

I disagree on the defense being the reason... it is simply age in general.

Pitt still has Letang, and other guys who were good in their younger window, yet kinda under the radar. Chicago just recently moved on from DK. Somehow Boston got Charlie and extended their window.

It's at least interesting, but maybe that is more of a final straw than the starting point who knows.

 

[redacted]

Yeah but the core is going to look vastly different in 6 years. Nobody knows what it'll be. For all we know Byram gets moved, Rants, Toews etc. We know a cap crunch is coming and Sakic/C-Mac will have to do something that much is for certain. The roster we have today literally can't exist in 5 years. Makar, Landeskog, MacKinnon are probably the 3 sure things to be here in 3 years. Those 3 aging very well would be massive for Colorado.

I'm perfectly fine with 5-6 years max. All I was saying is how MacKinnon ages means something. I'm not sure how you argue it can't. So let's say at 32 MacKinnon bucks the trend and is still somehow a middle tier/even high end 1C. Makar's still an elite 1D at 30. That's the two hardest things to build a cup winner taken care of. It makes the rest of the roster 100x easier. If MacKinnon is making 11-12 mill and falls apart and is barely a 2C at 32 than your hopes of winning a cup are probably non existent unless C-Mac has pulled something crazy off with a Toews/Girard trade or Newhook magically becomes Point 2.0 or something unrealistic like that.

In 6+ years, it probably starts to look a lot different as a re-tool will likely start somewhere in years 6-8. In 4-5... I don't think we will see much (if any difference) in MacK, Makar, Landy, Nuke, Rantanen, and Byram. I'd say there is a pretty solid chance that Lehk and one of G/Toews are here 5 years from now. That's the core and even MacK aging well won't stop the rest of the core from aging. It is simply father time. You may have a 1C and 1D and that does help... and you may get a last grasp ala 2019 Bruins. Those are very rare instances and I think counting on it happening here is a setup that can do more harm than good. Even then you get a one or two year blip while the rest of the core degrades heavily.

Really for the Avs to extend past the 5-6 ages... they need to draft a 1C who is just hitting his stride of prime ages in ~25 or 26.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Walks into 3 new pages of the thread, lets see whats in the thread.

View attachment 574312

Hey the discussion at least started to have substance instead of shit talking and hot takes. We're already exceeding expectations.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Nah... he's gonna stink. I've been convinced by the facts that no one presented as far as precedence that he's just not going to be worth the $12M per year in 2031 in that contract that he's yet to sign.

Players like Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Jagr, Sakic, Datsyuk, Messier, Francis, Yzerman and many more can all play really well up to age 35 but MacKinnon CANNOT play well up to age 34.

Got it.

Imagine putting Pavel Datsyuk in the same category as Joe Sakic and Mark Messier lol.

Guy had two 90+ point seasons and it's well known that even his own coach preferred Zetterberg to him defensively.

Yeah, imagine that! What kind of goof ball would put them in the same category!


Oh, wait a second....

 

[CobraAcesS]

In 6+ years, it probably starts to look a lot different as a re-tool will likely start somewhere in years 6-8. In 4-5... I don't think we will see much (if any difference) in MacK, Makar, Landy, Nuke, Rantanen, and Byram. I'd say there is a pretty solid chance that Lehk and one of G/Toews are here 5 years from now. That's the core and even MacK aging well won't stop the rest of the core from aging. It is simply father time. You may have a 1C and 1D and that does help... and you may get a last grasp ala 2019 Bruins. Those are very rare instances and I think counting on it happening here is a setup that can do more harm than good. Even then you get a one or two year blip while the rest of the core degrades heavily.

Really for the Avs to extend past the 5-6 ages... they need to draft a 1C who is just hitting his stride of prime ages in ~25 or 26.

So we just need Newhook or Meyers to turn into Datsyuk. Got it, totally possible.

I'd take ROR though? I guess if you really believe in Lundell that's why that has appeal.

We may be able to keep trying for guys who are RFAs or have two years instead of one though when it comes to spending futures. That is at least a solid strategy.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Yeah, imagine that! What kind of goof ball would put them in the same category!


Oh, wait a second....

Serious question, do others not see Datsyuk and Bergeron as similar players?

Toews sort of got overhyped, but I wouldn't put Datsyuk in that category.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Serious question, do others not see Datsyuk and Bergeron as similar players?

Toews sort of got overhyped, but I wouldn't put Datsyuk in that category.

Bergeron is definitely in a tier of his own IMO.

Datsyuk was elite in his prime though. They were probably on a pretty similar level for a few years but Datsyuk's game fell off towards the end while Bergeron just keeps on going.


Toews is a weird one. I think he's always been overrated and the Canadian media played such a massive role in that back in the day. Remember all those discussions the Canadian media outlets had about Toews being the best player in the world, better then Crosby and certainly ahead of Ovechkin. They were laughable takes at the time and are especially laughable in hindsight IMO. One of the most overrated players of this generation I would say.

Fun fact on Toews: Outside of the lockout shortened 2012/13 season, Toews has never had a single season with PPG+ numbers. His best season was 81 points in 82 games in 2018/19.

 

[mackinnon29]

He might be able to adjust his game to compensate though. In fact he did just that in these playoffs. His two-way game was much better because he wanted to help anyway he could. He said so himself.

Thank you for bringing this up. To me, this was the most interesting soundbyte from the long High Button interview. That MacKinnon consciously played a more balanced game with equal emphasis on defensive aspects. I thought he played great in the St Louis and Edmonton series, even if his offensive game was a bit buttonhook-heavy for a stretch of games there.

100% Mack will need this added to his play later in his career. Just as Nuke took a page from Mack’s play book in his interview Mack will have to take one from Nuke’s. Hard on every puck battle and play that 200ft game. More practice with Crosby (I.e faceoffs/pk things like that) will curve the decline in his mid 30’s. There were games in the playoffs against McDavid and company he looked like a completely different player, no amount of offence but awesome defence. Similar to Tavares in Toronto his play away from the puck will be just as important as his play with the puck at that point.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Imagine putting Pavel Datsyuk in the same category as Joe Sakic and Mark Messier lol.

Guy had two 90+ point seasons and it's well known that even his own coach preferred Zetterberg to him defensively.

Maybe not on HFAvs, but here Datsyuk is one of the most overrated players I’ve ever seen. Now that’s not say he wasn’t good. He was damn good, but the amount of people that say he’s a comparable to Crosby on this board is genuinely shocking.

 

[Gruyeriev]

Imagine putting Pavel Datsyuk in the same category as Joe Sakic and Mark Messier lol.

Guy had two 90+ point seasons and it's well known that even his own coach preferred Zetterberg to him defensively.

He ain’t better than Sakic or Mess but it was Datsyuk who won the Selke 3 years in a row.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Maybe not on HFAvs, but here Datsyuk is one of the most overrated players I’ve ever seen. Now that’s not say he wasn’t good. He was damn good, but the amount of people that say he’s a comparable to Crosby on this board is genuinely shocking.

I haven't seen the Crosby one, but I do think Datsyuk and Bergeron belong in the same discussion. The hockey world sort of loses it with the two way #1Cs.

Crosby is on his own when it comes to being generational and a two way player though.

Bergeron is definitely in a tier of his own IMO.

Datsyuk was elite in his prime though. They were probably on a pretty similar level for a few years but Datsyuk's game fell off towards the end while Bergeron just keeps on going.


Toews is a weird one. I think he's always been overrated and the Canadian media played such a massive role in that back in the day. Remember all those discussions the Canadian media outlets had about Toews being the best player in the world, better then Crosby and certainly ahead of Ovechkin. They were laughable takes at the time and are especially laughable in hindsight IMO. One of the most overrated players of this generation I would say.

Fun fact on Toews: Outside of the lockout shortened 2012/13 season, Toews has never had a single season with PPG+ numbers. His best season was 81 points in 82 games in 2018/19.

I can accept that, and I hate Chicago lol. I thought Crawfish was a paper tiger as well, though he held up for a little while longer than I expected.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Recency bias tells us that Bergeron is better than Datsyuk and Toews were massively overrated.

In his prime, Datsyuk was an absolute magician on the ice. One of the most unique players to play. Toews too was absolutely dominant. They are similar in that they were at or near the top of the league in their prime, but their primes were short-lived. Bergeron has been much more consistent but has never been the best player in the league. Hell, it's arguable he's never been the best on his team during his run. But his legacy will be different.

I was also someone who would have taken Toews over Crosby in that time frame because my judgement lies heavily on playoff performance. Toews was getting it done at both ends of the ice, and would make clutch play after clutch play. He was also one of the best 1-on-1 players in the league

 

[The Abusement Park]

I haven't seen the Crosby one, but I do think Datsyuk and Bergeron belong in the same discussion. The hockey world sort of loses it with the two way #1Cs.

Crosby is on his own when it comes to being generational and a two way player though.



I can accept that, and I hate Chicago lol. I thought Crawfish was a paper tiger as well, though he held up for a little while longer than I expected.

Yeah I think I’d place Dats and Bergeron in a similar tier all time. Like I said I don’t want to act like Datsyuk wasn’t good, because he was unreal but, some of the stuff be seen on the main boards/twitter is pretty wild.

As for Toews, he’s a weird one. He was clearly overrated by the media during his prime. But at the same time during his prime he was still a 70pt dman who was as good a defensive C as you’ll see. He also didn’t age as well as his counterparts did which I think also hurts him when he gets brought up.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I haven't seen the Crosby one, but I do think Datsyuk and Bergeron belong in the same discussion. The hockey world sort of loses it with the two way #1Cs.

Crosby is on his own when it comes to being generational and a two way player though.



I can accept that, and I hate Chicago lol. I thought Crawfish was a paper tiger as well, though he held up for a little while longer than I expected.

Bergeron's offense is a little overrated as well to be fair. Actually Datsyuk was probably the better player offensively. Datsyuk hit 97 points twice and was PPG+ 7 times in his career.

Bergeron only hit PPG+ one time in his career, and never hit 80 points even once. Absolutely an elite defender though.


Crosby is clearly on his own tier for sure. Even if Datsyuk/Bergeron are maybe a little better defensively, Crosby completely demolishes both of them offensively. Sid is legitimately a Top 5 player of all time. Pavel/Bergy are both Top 100 guys but there's a pretty ginormous gap between them and Sid IMO.


Toews is on that Top 100 all time players list but I think that just speaks to how overrated he is. Malkin should be on that list over him.

 

[AvsMakar08]

Where's Landy going?

Landy is not going anywhere. This is a just a back up plan just in case. In general, It's always good to have a backup plan in life.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Bergeron's offense is a little overrated as well to be fair. Actually Datsyuk was probably the better player offensively. Datsyuk hit 97 points twice and was PPG+ 7 times in his career.

Bergeron only hit PPG+ one time in his career, and never hit 80 points even once. Absolutely an elite defender though.


Crosby is clearly on his own tier for sure. Even if Datsyuk/Bergeron are maybe a little better defensively, Crosby completely demolishes both of them offensively. Sid is legitimately a Top 5 player of all time. Pavel/Bergy are both Top 100 guys but there's a pretty ginormous gap between them and Sid IMO.


Toews is on that Top 100 all time players list but I think that just speaks to how overrated he is. Malkin should be on that list over him.

I do think we're seeing Mack sacrifice a little offense for defense, and he'll likely be more consistent because of it.

I didn't think I'd see Datsyuk be labeled as over rated though. Detroit has their crazies, and bandwagon fans, but living here I appreciate that this state lives and breaths hockey like few places I've lived in the US.