Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)

[Bender]

Not comparing the players here but just replying on the dollar aspect of your comment...
6M is not the same as 6M was when we signed EJ and here we are with a pretty bad contract.

With that said, as Pokecheque said we have had Mack at a extremely good value for all those years so I have no problem paying him now. I would just prefer having him around 10.5-11.25M than 12M. I still stand by my comment that his contract could be ugly by then. It could possibly only take an injury that restrict his speed.

Not really the same thing as EJ is not a superstar. It's been a while but I remember fans on this forum being happy that EJ was signed long-term but knew that especially with his injury history, it could end up being a tough deal at the end of it.

In a time where David Savard signs for $3.5M and Gudbanson signs for $4M per year, EJ is certainly overpaid but it's not like he's $6M overpaid.

You have to compare apples to apples or else then you're comparing a guy like MacKinnon to Loui Eriksson or Brad Richards. MacKinnon has been a Top-5 player in the NHL for the past 5-6 years at least and most of the guys I listed in my post above were that as well or pretty damn close to it. Pretty much all of them were still point-per-game players or pretty close to it when they were 35 years old.

Oh and I'll be really surprised if he takes $12M. He's said he's going to take a discount because it allows the TEAM to be better and it will likely be within reason so $10M or $11M per year is what I'm expecting. Oh and I absolutely LOVE when people post stuff like I just did and then some yeehaw comes out and says "are you crazy?? That guy did this and got this many points - there is NO WAY that he's signing for ONLY that much..." (not directed at you specifically)

And then Matthew Tkachuk signs for 8 years at $9.5M after a 104 point season.

 

[Pokecheque]

How come? The guy takes care of himself, I'd bet on him aging well.

Yes, but it's not always about staying in prime physical condition. If it were just about that there'd be a ton of NHL players staying at an elite level well into their thirties.

MacKinnon is blessed with amazing talent, a big, powerful frame, and ungodly speed, but hockey sense is not exactly his strong suit. He's just that much more bigger, faster, and more skilled than most other people on the ice. Patrice Bergeron he is not. If he loses even a step he won't necessarily be able to make adjustments to his game to compensate.

We're kinda seeing it with EJ right now. He's a big, powerful, skilled guy who tried to adjust his game to compensate for the wear and tear he's endured, and it wasn't entirely successful.

Let me be clear though, I want nothing to do with this ongoing argument. Pay the guy regardless of how the contract looks five years from now. By the time the rust shows in his game it won't matter much anyway.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Nah... he's gonna stink. I've been convinced by the facts that no one presented as far as precedence that he's just not going to be worth the $12M per year in 2031 in that contract that he's yet to sign.

Players like Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Jagr, Sakic, Datsyuk, Messier, Francis, Yzerman and many more can all play really well up to age 35 but MacKinnon CANNOT play well up to age 34.

Got it.

With the exception of Ovy who is a scoring freak they are all players with high IQ. Mack is not that. If he loses some of his speed it could certainly affect his production. He might be able to adjust his game to compensate though. In fact he did just that in these playoffs. His two-way game was much better because he wanted to help anyway he could. He said so himself.

Not really the same thing as EJ is not a superstar. It's been a while but I remember fans on this forum being happy that EJ was signed long-term but knew that especially with his injury history, it could end up being a tough deal at the end of it.

In a time where David Savard signs for $3.5M and Gudbanson signs for $4M per year, EJ is certainly overpaid but it's not like he's $6M overpaid.

You have to compare apples to apples or else then you're comparing a guy like MacKinnon to Loui Eriksson or Brad Richards. MacKinnon has been a Top-5 player in the NHL for the past 5-6 years at least and most of the guys I listed in my post above were that as well or pretty damn close to it. Pretty much all of them were still point-per-game players or pretty close to it when they were 35 years old.

Oh and I'll be really surprised if he takes $12M. He's said he's going to take a discount because it allows the TEAM to be better and it will likely be within reason so $10M or $11M per year is what I'm expecting. Oh and I absolutely LOVE when people post stuff like I just did and then some yeehaw comes out and says "are you crazy?? That guy did this and got this many points - there is NO WAY that he's signing for ONLY that much..." (not directed at you specifically)

And then Matthew Tkachuk signs for 8 years at $9.5M after a 104 point season.

Thanks for saying that because I don't do that kind of stuff.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Nah... he's gonna stink. I've been convinced by the facts that no one presented as far as precedence that he's just not going to be worth the $12M per year in 2031 in that contract that he's yet to sign.

Players like Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Jagr, Sakic, Datsyuk, Messier, Francis, Yzerman and many more can all play really well up to age 35 but MacKinnon CANNOT play well up to age 34.

Got it.

Brett Hull is my favourite example of this. Guy lost his legs but he was so smart and still had that wicked shot that kept him in the league 4-5 yrs longer then he probably should have....playing with other high hockey IQ players like Datsyuk and Zetterberg certainly helped prolong his career. Mackinnon doesnt have the same elite level IQ that Hull had but I dont doubt that he can be very productive still at 35-38 if hes playing with some big brain players. He will be overpaid by then but who cares when the Avs have 2 cups during his last contract here.

 

[Bender]

Seravalli says if Kadri signs in NYI he expects Beauvillier to be moved. He says they could get a good return, but imo if Bjorkstrand got peanuts idk how Beauvillier gets anything significant.

He also said he'd bet his house that Kadri was signing with the Rangers so I'll assume he doesn't know shit...

Beauvillier and Bailey are obvious choices...

 

[EdAVSfan]

You have several very good players who have aged gracefully and still continue to be very good players in their mid to late 30s. Some have already been mentioned in the posts.

Then you have guys like Seguin, Hall and Karlsson who are all showing signs of decline. 3 seasons ago, when these guys were 27ish, they were practically all PPG players or more. None do that anymore, and arent really that close now that theyre 30-32 years old.
Then you have guys like Marleau, Cogs etc whos skating never left and are and were exceptional skaters late in their careers.

The point? Its fascinating to me how some of how can conclusively say what will happen, regardless of what side of the argument you're on. The fact is, no one knows. Odds dont matter with things like this. Its the individual. injuries are a complete unknown and majorly affect long term sometimes.

6-8 years from now? Stop pretending like you know, you dont.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

To be fair I don't think anybody is actually suggesting we not sign Mackinnon. Outside of Makar he's the most important player on this team and any chance we have at winning more Cups in the future pretty much relies on him aging gracefully more than anything else. He plays the most important position in hockey, we can't afford to just lose him in free agency, even if his contract looks rough by years 6/7/8

 

[ANewHope]

I don’t like the EJ comparisons. Even at his peak EJ like much of are old core was overrated. He was never a real star.

MacKinnon could be absolute garbage at 30-31. I just don’t like that’s it’s passed off as a fact. Duchene literally just had 43 goals/86 points at 31.

 

[Bender]

With the exception of Ovy who is a scoring freak they are all players with high IQ. Mack is not that. If he loses some of his speed it could certainly affect his production. He might be able to adjust his game to compensate though. In fact he did just that in these playoffs. His two-way game was much better because he wanted to help anyway he could. He said so himself.


Thanks for saying that because I don't do that kind of stuff.

I would debate that. I don't think he has Panarin-like vision and creativity but just because it's not at that level it doesn't mean he a north-south fast skating, hard shooting hockey moron.

He wouldn't be in the conversation for top-3, top-5 best players if that's all he was but because he such a powerful skater and dangerous off the rush, people seem to discount the rest of his game.

 

[Golden Foppa]

I honestly think Kadri is getting a bit screwed over by this and to tell you the brutal truth, I really hope it helps CMac to keep Nate's contract down. I'm worried about his next contract once he losses a step. I'm not sure he's a #1C without his speed.

Why is everyone so worried about Nathan MacKinnon losing a step? He turns a whopping 27 years old in September. What an old f***! He takes care of his body, he eats well, and he works out like a beast. Why are we so freaked out about him losing a step?

 

[Pokecheque]

Why is everyone so worried about Nathan MacKinnon losing a step? He turns a whopping 27 years old in September. What an old f***! He takes care of his body, he eats well, and he works out like a beast. Why are we so freaked out about him losing a step?

I don't think anyone is "freaked out" about it, I certainly am not. Saying it's a possibility down the road and actually being worried about the notion are not mutually exclusive.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Why is everyone so worried about Nathan MacKinnon losing a step? He turns a whopping 27 years old in September. What an old f***! He takes care of his body, he eats well, and he works out like a beast. Why are we so freaked out about him losing a step?

Hes going to lose a step or two its a question of when and if he can still be productive when it happens.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Except for maybe a few posters I don't think anybody is conclusively or factually saying Mack will be bad at 32-35. I certainly never said that. I am all for paying him and keep trying to win a SC but the higher that contract is the harder it will be.

As for my EJ example I said I was just using him to address Bender's dollar aspect of his comment that 12M in 8 years will not be like 12M now. I was using EJ's 6M contract to show that it can still become a pretty bad contract down the road when a player deteriorate for different reason. Will Mack be worth 12M in 9 years? Who knows? First we will need to know what 12M is worth in relation to the cap in 9 years. Using EJ again, if he would still be playing at almost the same level as when he signed that contract, that 6M contract would still look pretty good.

 

[Golden Foppa]

Hes going to lose a step or two its a question of when and if he can still be productive when it happens.

Yeah but not until his mid 30's like most athletes. He's more than 5 years away from that unless he suffers a catastrophic injury.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I don’t like the EJ comparisons. Even at his peak EJ like much of are old core was overrated. He was never a real star.

MacKinnon could be absolute garbage at 30-31. I just don’t like that’s it’s passed off as a fact. Duchene literally just had 43 goals/86 points at 31.

Well lets also be fair here, 1 or 2 outliers do not make a rule.


But besides that... I dont think its necessarily the 30/31 year old Mackinnon we're talking about. If Mack signs an 8x12M contract this summer for example, it kicks in, in his 28 year old season, and runs until he's 35. I'm sure Mack will still be an effective player at 30/31. Maybe not a Top 3 Center in hockey like he is now, but he should still be a legit #1C at least.

It's the years 6/7/8 of the contract where historically, the odds are stacked up against him. At that point you're talking his 33/34/35 year old seasons. Those are the years where especially for a guy who relies on his physical skillset as much as Mack does, the contract could start to head south.


Unless you think he's one of the greatest players to ever play the game, on par with the likes of Messier/Sakic/Datsyuk/ etc. At that point you probably believe he can play until he's 50 and be the best player in the league.

 

[Richard88]

Hahahaha I had no clue who it actually was that started it first but now I know it's the guy with the worse takes on this forum that gets laughed at daily...

Imagine thinking that $12M - 8yrs from now is going to be the same exact thing as $12M in 2023 and that's IF he's even signing for that much.

In 8 years time $12m won't even buy a packet of Daddy Gates' soylent green

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Well lets also be fair here, 1 or 2 outliers do not make a rule.


But besides that... I dont think its necessarily the 30/31 year old Mackinnon we're talking about. If Mack signs an 8x12M contract this summer for example, it kicks in, in his 28 year old season, and runs until he's 35. I'm sure Mack will still be an effective player at 30/31. Maybe not a Top 3 Center in hockey like he is now, but he should still be a legit #1C at least.

It's the years 6/7/8 of the contract where historically, the odds are stacked up against him. At that point you're talking his 33/34/35 year old seasons. Those are the years where especially for a guy who relies on his physical skillset as much as Mack does, the contract could start to head south.


Unless you think he's one of the greatest players to ever play the game, on par with the likes of Messier/Sakic/Datsyuk/ etc. At that point you probably believe he can play until he's 50 and be the best player in the league.

You had a great post going until you had to wreck it with that last paragraph....

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

I'm not so worried about Mack. The guy takes such good care of himself that I don't think he is going to age as poorly as being suggested. Will he slow down? Possibly, but that doesn't happen to everyone. Helm is a good example of a guy that still has plenty of speed at his age. So did Super Joe.

 

[bromando]

I sometimes wonder if Mack lost some of his physical tools, if he’d learn to play the game a bit headier. Duchene is a decent comparison. Remember the nonsense dipsy doodle spins he’d do in corners repeatedly just to lose the puck all the time? The games I saw of his this last year, he was focused more on positional play and a team game (even if he forgets his side of the ice a lot).

Mack relies on his speed and physicality yet we all have seen the bull in a china shop look with him. Sometimes I feel it’d be better if he was forced to play a different type of game some of the time. His speed and acceleration do a ton to help, don’t get me wrong, but I think he could transition to a different style once his body wears down a bit. For now, it probably just makes too much sense to play at his octane level.

He’ll slow down at some point for sure. When, how much, and can he compensate will be the lingering questions til we see it. I’m not super confident he’ll be a 12 million dollar man in 9 years but at the same time, I can see him playing at a really high level with adjustments. Having Crosby as a super close mentor through it certainly helps.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

You had a great post going until you had to wreck it with that last paragraph....

The last paragraph is what makes it great. Should stir some more great "goofball" quote as well

 

[redacted]

5-6 years from now, it really won't matter how good MacK is... the core will be aged out and not contending. Pay the man his money and try to contend... deal with the consequences of a mid 30s hockey team when it happens.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

The last paragraph is what makes it great. Should stir some more great "goofball" quote as well

Whatever floats your boat I guess...

 

[Pokecheque]

Man, I'm reminded what it was like seeing Messier plod along as a 4th line center when he was like 44 or something in New York, that was painful to watch.

That has nothing to do with Nate BTW, just a random musing.

 

[Golden Foppa]

I'm not so worried about Mack. The guy takes such good care of himself that I don't think he is going to age as poorly as being suggested. Will he slow down? Possibly, but that doesn't happen to everyone. Helm is a good example of a guy that still has plenty of speed at his age. So did Super Joe.

Mack can lose two steps and still have average speed. If he loses one step he goes from one of the fastest skaters in the league to above average speed. Do people really think he can't be an effective player if he is still faster than most skaters, but no longer has elite speed? He's developing a strong defensive game, has a great shot, and great play making ability. We're a long ways a way from Mack being a guy who we want off the team because his play doesn't match his contract.

Unless he sticks his hand in the operating end of a snow blower his game is a very long way from being washed up.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Mack can lose two steps and still have average speed. If he loses one step he goes from one of the fastest skaters in the league to above average speed. Do people really think he can't be an effective player if he is still faster than most skaters, but no longer has elite speed? He's developing a strong defensive game, has a great shot, and great play making ability. We're a long ways a way from Mack being a guy who we want off the team because his play doesn't match his contract.

No one’s saying we want him off the team and certainly not to sign him. Just that his play style could lead to an unpleasant aging curve. But obviously we won’t know till that happens.