That's not what I am reading. I see most of the same players names when people are talking about the team in 5-6 years. What I read is people saying a couple of players from the current core will need to go obviously but most will be here.
It is encouraging to see people are starting to think we might be able to remain quite competitive for longer than a couple of years. FTR I do believe the Avs will need to retool but if CMac/Sakic do it right we might not dip too much in the standings while doing so and be able to remain a decent contender. Certainly not a cup favorite but a decent contender nonetheless.
As someone else just alluded to, it all depends on ones definition of a retool.
Personally I see it playing out like this:
2022-23: Top tier cup contender, we should be all in again trying to repeat and go back to back. The only real difference from last year's roster to this year is Kadri, and he can be replaced comfortably at the deadline. Goaltending is a also an unknown for the regular season at least.
2023-24: This would be the first year of the retool. We're almost certainly losing one of Girard/Toews this summer as we simply won't have the cap space for all 3 LHD. We might even lose a forward at this point(Lehky or Newhook would be the one we lose) because cap is going to be seriously tight next summer. This is also the summer where our depth will get trimmed even further. We're gonna have to be icing 4th line guys making 750k pretty much to fit under the cap.
They should still be a playoff team, but I would bet on this being the year we see them step back from the top of the division and possibly lose out on home ice advantage in the first round sort of thing.
2024-25: Year 2 of the retool and I would guess the toughest year. Unless the cap rises significantly, you're probably losing another core guy from the roster at this point. Probably Toews as he prices himself out of Colorado as a UFA. Also need to realize this summer is where Mikko is 1 year away from free agency.
At this point, you're probably still looking at a core group of Mack/Mikko/Gabe at forward, Byram/Makar on Defense. But it's definitely a good possibility that at this point we've lost Toews and Girard, and one of Lehky/Nuke.
The biggest factor going forward is going to be our prospects and where they're at development wise. It would do a lot for this teams future to have Behrens establishing himself as a Top 4 LD in the next 2-3 years and one or two forwards to have broken out and established themselves as Top 9 forwards.
If I had to guess a year where the Avs miss the playoffs coming up, this would be the year it happens IMO.
From that point onward, it doesn't exactly get easier either. Mikko is a UFA that next summer. And then I believe Cale a UFA the year after that. And on top of all that, Gabe is ~33, Manson is 34, Mack is ~31.
The pressure at this point is really on the scouting staff to start producing decent NHL talent in the draft. If they can do that, you might be able to go through a quick 1-2 year retool and then open a new window up for 2-3 more years with some new young players in that core.
That's how I see the ideal scenario playing out. One more year of being a cup favorite. Then a short 1-2 year retool, our scouts earn the money during this stage and find 2-3 impact players and we come out in 2025 with a new window and chance to get one more cup before the veteran guys start to really show their age.
