Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)

[Mighty Makar]

Steel to Minny.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Steel to Minny.

 

[Balthazar]

cheap

 

[Cousin Eddie]

 

[Pokecheque]

Doesn't seem like a big deal either way, is it?

 

[McMetal]

I always liked Steel, would have been happy to have him at that price. Oh well, at this point I trust the Avs pro scouts, if they didn't think he was a good fit then it's probably best we didn't go after him.

 

[Balthazar]

I always liked Steel, would have been happy to have him at that price. Oh well, at this point I trust the Avs pro scouts, if they didn't think he was a good fit then it's probably best we didn't go after him.

We have plenty of players like that in our bottom 6.

I'd rather try Kaut.

 

[The Merchant]

Not sure where this sudden obsession over a washed Jonathan Toews is coming from when there's a much younger, better option still available via UFA.

 

[redacted]

Not sure where this sudden obsession over a washed Jonathan Toews is coming from when there's a much younger, better option still available via UFA.

How is Rodrigues a better option? Toews has a lot of flaws, but he's better than Rodrigues... especially at center.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Yeah, I don't get the Toews thing. Now if y'all wanna get Kane and let him drive the 2nd from the wing. I'm listening. I'm not sure what the cost would be to get him retained or double-retained, but Nichushkin-Newhook-Rantanen/Kane could work.

That being said....with the limited amount of assets we have let, I'm not sure spending them on a one-year of Kane's services is the play we should be making. I really feel like all our remaining assets need to kept until the 2C hole is fully resolved, just in case.

 

[redacted]

Steel isn't a good enough skater to really be an impact NHL player. I get taking the chance on Steel if you're a bad team, but Minny isn't bad...

Though if you ever want to dump an undersized, average skating young center... apparently Minnesota is the place. They drafted Rossi and Haight... and have brought in Jost and Steel now.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Steel isn't a good enough skater to really be an impact NHL player. I get taking the chance on Steel if you're a bad team, but Minny isn't bad...

Though if you ever want to dump an undersized, average skating young center... apparently Minnesota is the place. They drafted Rossi and Haight... and have brought in Jost and Steel now.

Sounds like the place to send Newhook!

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Look at it this way... pre-pandemic the revenue was ~5.1b and that is the baseline. 19-20 was down to 4.4b (leaving a .7b shortfall). 20-21 was ~2.33b (leaving a ~2.7b shortfall). So in total for the 2 seasons, we have a 3.4b shortfall. Now half of that is the player's share. So 1.7b to pay off. Last season is being tabulated still, but in the range of 5.3-5.4b. Meaning .2-.3b in excess where players have half of that to pay off. So between 100-150m paid off of the 1.7b... leaving >1.5b in 'debt.'

Good grief, if they are only paying back 100-150M per year off a 1.7B, now 1.5B, debt...what f***ing interest rate is Gary "Shark-Shoes" Bettman charging them?

What I mean to say in all seriousness though is, that's got to take more than a couple of years to pay off at this rate (10%ish per year).

If I'm getting this right then, the plan/expectation is that HRR will be growing over the next several years. However, the cap will remain in a relatively fixed spot (following the agreements made between the NHL and NHLPA) until the entire 1.7Bish is paid back in full. At that time the cap will jump back to where-ever 50% of HRR is at that point?

I guess HRR is expected to grow pretty substantially over the next few seasons if they are expecting the cap to get a big bump in 2025, eh?

And sorry for asking so many questions about this. It's probably old hat for a lot of folks around here, but I haven't really taken a dive into escrow and its inner workings. I started to read about it one night and I found myself day-dreaming about an ECON course I took decades ago and my eyes glazed over and the next thing I knew, I woke up with a puddle of drool on my chest.

 

[The Merchant]

How is Rodrigues a better option? Toews has a lot of flaws, but he's better than Rodrigues... especially at center.

Well for one they're on opposite trajectories. Toews is on the tail end of his career and both his defensive game and skating have taken a nosedive, which could be due in part to the chronic illness he suffers from. Rodrigues produced good-to-great results on both ends of the ice as soon as he was given consistent top-6 minutes. Add to the fact he's 5 years younger and would come at no asset cost it should be a no-brainer if the choice is between the two.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Well for one they're on opposite trajectories. Toews is on the tail end of his career and both his defensive game and skating have taken a nosedive, which could be due in part to the chronic illness he suffers from. Rodrigues produced good-to-great results on both ends of the ice as soon as he was given consistent top-6 minutes. Add to the fact he's 5 years younger and would come at no asset cost it should be a no-brainer if the choice is between the two.

I mean Rodrigues having a career year at 29 during a contract year isn’t exactly confidence inspiring…

And it’s not a coincidence it was a year where he played with Crosby and Guentzel.

 

[Avaholic29]

Not sure where this sudden obsession over a washed Jonathan Toews is coming from when there's a much younger, better option still available via UFA.

Rodrigues better than Toews? Hahahahaha come on man.

 

[Pokecheque]

Yeah I can't stand Toews but even I'll admit he's a better option for 2C than Rodrigues.

 

[jaisen73]

If the Avs make any more additions I think it'll be PTO offers. At this point I am for saving some cap space and creating some camp competition for Kaut, Bowers, Ranta, and others.

 

[redacted]

Good grief, if they are only paying back 100-150M per year off a 1.7B, now 1.5B, debt...what f***ing interest rate is Gary "Shark-Shoes" Bettman charging them?

What I mean to say in all seriousness though is, that's got to take more than a couple of years to pay off at this rate (10%ish per year).

If I'm getting this right then, the plan/expectation is that HRR will be growing over the next several years. However, the cap will remain in a relatively fixed spot (following the agreements made between the NHL and NHLPA) until the entire 1.7Bish is paid back in full. At that time the cap will jump back to where-ever 50% of HRR is at that point?

I guess HRR is expected to grow pretty substantially over the next few seasons if they are expecting the cap to get a big bump in 2025, eh?

And sorry for asking so many questions about this. It's probably old hat for a lot of folks around here, but I haven't really taken a dive into escrow and its inner workings. I started to read about it one night and I found myself day-dreaming about an ECON course I took decades ago and my eyes glazed over and the next thing I knew, I woke up with a puddle of drool on my chest.

The expectations for this upcoming year are a near full return to gate revenues (attendance lower, but average prices higher) and for sponsorships to grow another 75-100m (I've heard some circles quote 150m, but seems high. So take the gates up 400m and 100m from sponsorship increases and you have a ~250m for the player to pay back off this season as a baseline. 23-24 is going to have the expectation of full attendance compared to the pandemic and a further increase in sponsorship. There should be at least another 350m paid back there (my guess is the increase here is projected higher than 350m and closer to 450m with Seattle off to a great start financially).

Even going to the high side on those and saying 750-800m is being paid off with normalization and expansion of sponsorships... you have to find another 700-750m to fully payoff within 2 years. Which is a big hill to climb. In 3 years it will be fully paid off though.

Well for one they're on opposite trajectories. Toews is on the tail end of his career and both his defensive game and skating have taken a nosedive, which could be due in part to the chronic illness he suffers from. Rodrigues produced good-to-great results on both ends of the ice as soon as he was given consistent top-6 minutes. Add to the fact he's 5 years younger and would come at no asset cost it should be a no-brainer if the choice is between the two.

Rodrigues produced 'good to great results' next to Crosby and on the power play. Pretty high chance that he's a one year, flash in the pan sort of player. Happens all the time. Add to that his terrible performance to end the season, and I think you can make the case that he was just on a heater for a bit and already regressed back to his bottom 6 self by the end of the season. The fact that Pittsburgh didn't line up to sign him and actually replaced him during the season should be a sign.

The no asset is the only thing really going for Rodrigues over Toews. Toews can play center. Actually got better through the year than he started. Has a pedigree of performance where you can reasonably expect middle 6 center performance as a base with 2nd line center as a ceiling. Toews is old as dirt, but Rodrigues is typically at the age where regression is starting... given that Rogrigues really wasn't a good player to start, reasonable to expect him to drop off at any day.

 

[Pokecheque]

Rodrigues produced 'good to great results' next to Crosby and on the power play. Pretty high chance that he's a one year, flash in the pan sort of player. Happens all the time. Add to that his terrible performance to end the season, and I think you can make the case that he was just on a heater for a bit and already regressed back to his bottom 6 self by the end of the season. The fact that Pittsburgh didn't line up to sign him and actually replaced him during the season should be a sign.

The no asset is the only thing really going for Rodrigues over Toews. Toews can play center. Actually got better through the year than he started. Has a pedigree of performance where you can reasonably expect middle 6 center performance as a base with 2nd line center as a ceiling. Toews is old as dirt, but Rodrigues is typically at the age where regression is starting... given that Rogrigues really wasn't a good player to start, reasonable to expect him to drop off at any day.

The one weird outlier is that E-Rod strangely had better underlying numbers away from Crosby than with him. That part makes no sense to me, but it's interesting to note nonetheless.

This doesn't help the debate any, but then again when have I ever done that?

 

[Chiarelli]

The one weird outlier is that E-Rod strangely had better underlying numbers away from Crosby than with him. That part makes no sense to me, but it's interesting to note nonetheless.

This doesn't help the debate any, but then again when have I ever done that?

Likely because he went from playing against top competition to weak players

 

[BKarchitect]

E-Rod had great analytics but also 3 goals and 12 points in his last 48 games once the Pens started getting healthier. He’s never going to repeat that purple patch he had to start last season….there’s zero “trajectory” to his game. He’s less of a 2nd line band-aid than even JTC for me. I wouldn’t say not to him as an extra forward with versatility on the roster for near the minimum but I’m willing to bet he is unsigned because he is looking for a bit of extra money or commitment off his last season. Don’t see the Avs really being interested if that is the case.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

The expectations for this upcoming year are a near full return to gate revenues (attendance lower, but average prices higher) and for sponsorships to grow another 75-100m (I've heard some circles quote 150m, but seems high. So take the gates up 400m and 100m from sponsorship increases and you have a ~250m for the player to pay back off this season as a baseline. 23-24 is going to have the expectation of full attendance compared to the pandemic and a further increase in sponsorship. There should be at least another 350m paid back there (my guess is the increase here is projected higher than 350m and closer to 450m with Seattle off to a great start financially).

Even going to the high side on those and saying 750-800m is being paid off with normalization and expansion of sponsorships... you have to find another 700-750m to fully payoff within 2 years. Which is a big hill to climb. In 3 years it will be fully paid off though.


Rodrigues produced 'good to great results' next to Crosby and on the power play. Pretty high chance that he's a one year, flash in the pan sort of player. Happens all the time. Add to that his terrible performance to end the season, and I think you can make the case that he was just on a heater for a bit and already regressed back to his bottom 6 self by the end of the season. The fact that Pittsburgh didn't line up to sign him and actually replaced him during the season should be a sign.

The no asset is the only thing really going for Rodrigues over Toews. Toews can play center. Actually got better through the year than he started. Has a pedigree of performance where you can reasonably expect middle 6 center performance as a base with 2nd line center as a ceiling. Toews is old as dirt, but Rodrigues is typically at the age where regression is starting... given that Rogrigues really wasn't a good player to start, reasonable to expect him to drop off at any day.

Thanks for that response. As always, it helps having someone willing to spell it out in detail like that. Much appreciated!

 

[The Merchant]

The expectations for this upcoming year are a near full return to gate revenues (attendance lower, but average prices higher) and for sponsorships to grow another 75-100m (I've heard some circles quote 150m, but seems high. So take the gates up 400m and 100m from sponsorship increases and you have a ~250m for the player to pay back off this season as a baseline. 23-24 is going to have the expectation of full attendance compared to the pandemic and a further increase in sponsorship. There should be at least another 350m paid back there (my guess is the increase here is projected higher than 350m and closer to 450m with Seattle off to a great start financially).

Even going to the high side on those and saying 750-800m is being paid off with normalization and expansion of sponsorships... you have to find another 700-750m to fully payoff within 2 years. Which is a big hill to climb. In 3 years it will be fully paid off though.


Rodrigues produced 'good to great results' next to Crosby and on the power play. Pretty high chance that he's a one year, flash in the pan sort of player. Happens all the time. Add to that his terrible performance to end the season, and I think you can make the case that he was just on a heater for a bit and already regressed back to his bottom 6 self by the end of the season. The fact that Pittsburgh didn't line up to sign him and actually replaced him during the season should be a sign.

The no asset is the only thing really going for Rodrigues over Toews. Toews can play center. Actually got better through the year than he started. Has a pedigree of performance where you can reasonably expect middle 6 center performance as a base with 2nd line center as a ceiling. Toews is old as dirt, but Rodrigues is typically at the age where regression is starting... given that Rogrigues really wasn't a good player to start, reasonable to expect him to drop off at any day.

The one weird outlier is that E-Rod strangely had better underlying numbers away from Crosby than with him. That part makes no sense to me, but it's interesting to note nonetheless.

This doesn't help the debate any, but then again when have I ever done that?

He also had a great playoff series away from Crosby and put up exceptional underlyings until Malkin came back and sapped his minutes. Not only that, but he actually exploded offensively while both Malkin and Crosby were out of the lineup, so to say he only leeched off of Crosby is a bit disingenuous. And while he may have produced on the power play, that's more due to the fact that he had an absurd, unsustainable 4.9 shooting% at 5v5. He's also a very good transition player and had some of the best entry micros of any player in the league, which would obviously fit the Avs like a glove.

But look, I'm not pounding the door down for either guy. I'd be fine with giving Rodrigues $1mill like the Pens did to help insulte the top-6. I'm just not sure why there's this sudden interest in a guy like Toews who just put up 37 points while producing replacement-level results defensively. You run every internal option before settling on a guy like that.

 

[LTCPain75]

Start Big Moose centering the 2nd line. Put Lehkonen and Kaut on his wings. Adjust fire after a few games if it isn't working.