Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Let’s Run it Back!

[flyfysher]

I agree with what you're saying but it's unreasonable to assume that because Sakic hasn't typically traded players with term in the past 3-4 years that he won't do it now especially when you consider the hole at #2C and the surplus on D. At some point, ALL GMs need to make moves where they trade a player that has term to address other needs - they may not like it and maybe it's not their preference but it's inevitable.

I think winning the cup changes a lot of things. I mean, before the playoffs - I was 100% on the keep Sammy G train because we hadn't seen what Byram could do. I figured that Kadri and Burakovsky would roll off and that they'd put Newhook as #2C to start the year and see how he does and address #2C at the TDL. I don't feel like that would be a good idea anymore.

Now that we're the top dog, I don't think teams will be doing us any favors in adding key pieces at the TDL. I think you can address secondary depth pieces but not #2C or G.

I could see Fleury being a good possibility. Only a 1 year commitment without it costing you any assets and you can re-visit the goalie market one year later and also check-in on Annunen's development.

Hopefully they pick a goalie or two with the few picks they do have. Basically, they should ask their scouts about different goalie options at the draft and pick the consensus guy that NONE of their scouts like.

I agree the Avs will change their philosophy with respect to trading players under contract as their window of contention changes. That's why I wrote that a proposal like Cossa and a 1st for Girard/Newhook wasn't totally out there.

I don't see Sakic/MacFarland going after older players like Statsny, Giroux or Malkin. If the Avs do, then they should tender them what would likely be an insulting offer to them but no extended term whatsoever. Older guys are injury prone and Sakic should not have forgotten that painful lesson no matter what the reputation of those vets are.

I'm fine with Fleury for a year. I'm also fine with DK, especially given his initial acquisition cost, but only if it's $5.5 or less. But I could see going after Gibson if the scouts think he will rebound. Hell if I know. I'm not a goalie guy. That's on Gigantor.

 

[UncleRisto]

If we're trading Girard how about something around Girard+ for Murphy + Dach?

Girard would be a perfect long-term partner for Jones on Chicago's top pairing and is young enough to fit their rebuild while also keeping them competitive right now.

Murphy is signed for 4 years and $600k cheaper than Girard, and is a better stylistic fit on the Avs 2nd pairing next to one of Byram or Toews (and long-term Behrens).

Maybe I'm vastly undervaluing Dach but I'm not sure how you value him at this point. Whatever the case the trade value can be balanced with picks/prospects/JTC.

Dach would be the piece that makes the Girard/Murphy swap worth it for Colorado, as he could potentially fill the 2C spot going forwards. It's also a bit risky for the Avs if Dach doesn't pan out at 2C as they'd have traded their best 2C-trade-chip.

I have no idea, but on paper that sounds like an awesome move. Of course Dach actually making it that is a big question mark.

 

[Richard88]

I've always been a big Kirby Dach fan but if I'm Avs management, I don't want to put in the patience that it will take for him to "figure it out". I do think he gets there but is it going to be this year, next or the one after that?

I think it would be a great trade but timing-wise maybe not as much. Unless you're making a subsequent move like getting Gourde out of Seattle... who could take over that #2C spot until Dach is ready. If that's the case, I'd much prefer to grab Adam Larsson as well instead of Connor Murphy.

Yeah I agree, the biggest issue with that trade is that it doesn't solve the 2C issue in the immediate future, unless Dach were to surprise and break out immediately.

A subsequent move for Gourde would mitigate that, as he could hold down 2C until Dach is ready, and then slide down to 3C where he's the best 3C in the league.

Girard+ for Murphy+Dach, and then Newhook for Gourde...

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Nichuskin
Lehkonen - Gourde - Rantanen
Meyers - Dach - Compher
xxxxx ---- xxxx ---- O'Connor

Toews - Makar
Byram - Murphy
xxxxx --- EJ

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[Richard88]

Mikheyev thinking he can get $5.5m with stats like his,... good luck with that...

72 points in 146 games (just under 0.5ppg) and 4 points in 19 playoff games.

That does make you wonder what Nichuskin is gonna be asking for. Wouldn't be surprising to see the number in the 7's really

 

[Bender]

Mikheyev thinking he can get $5.5m with stats like his,... good luck with that...

72 points in 146 games (just under 0.5ppg) and 4 points in 19 playoff games.

That does make you wonder what Nichuskin is gonna be asking for. Wouldn't be surprising to see the number in the 7's really

Mikheyev's camp are shooting for the moon... in the end, I won't be surprised if he gets a deal like Donskoi's.

For Nuke, his camp saw first-hand how Landeskog's negotiation went and how it went down to the wire. I'd love to hear an announcement well before but I'm expecting this to go to July 12th or even July 13th right before noon.

I'm also half expecting him to actually test Free Agency and 'give the Avs a chance to match' which would be awful and I would hope the Avs move-on to Plan B if that's the case.

I would be VERY surprised if his AAV ended up that high. I don't think the Avs will pay Nuke more than they did Landeskog only 1 year ago. Even when Anders Lee signed his mega 7x7 deal in 2019, he was coming off 3 straight 50+ point seasons. Nuke has been awesome this season and even better in the playoffs but other teams can't be certain that :

1) if this is just a player going all out in a contract year since he has not surpassed 30 points in his 3 previous seasons​

and​

2) if his success was just being part of being of the Top-6 on the best team in the league​

I believe both of these facts play a key role in getting him signed to a fair deal for both sides. (long-term between $5-$6m AAV)

As always - and this goes for every UFA - if the player is dead set on maximizing his value then he'll grubauer his way into free agency and it's likely though not certain* that some fool will overpay in a bidding war.

*I'm pretty sure Tomas Vokoun's agent still wakes up in a cold sweat from free agency all those years ago.

 

[Richard88]

Mikheyev's camp are shooting for the moon... in the end, I won't be surprised if he gets a deal like Donskoi's.

For Nuke, his camp saw first-hand how Landeskog's negotiation went and how it went down to the wire. I'd love to hear an announcement well before but I'm expecting this to go to July 12th or even July 13th right before noon.

I'm also half expecting him to actually test Free Agency and 'give the Avs a chance to match' which would be awful and I would hope the Avs move-on to Plan B if that's the case.

I would be VERY surprised if his AAV ended up that high. I don't think the Avs will pay Nuke more than they did Landeskog only 1 year ago. Even when Anders Lee signed his mega 7x7 deal in 2019, he was coming off 3 straight 50+ point seasons. Nuke has been awesome this season and even better in the playoffs but other teams can't be certain that :

1) if this is just a player going all out in a contract year since he has not surpassed 30 points in his 3 previous seasons​

and​

2) if his success was just being part of being of the Top-6 on the best team in the league​

I believe both of these facts play a key role in getting him signed to a fair deal for both sides. (long-term between $5-$6m AAV)

As always - and this goes for every UFA - if the player is dead set on maximizing his value then he'll grubauer his way into free agency and it's likely though not certain* that some fool will overpay in a bidding war.

*I'm pretty sure Tomas Vokoun's agent still wakes up in a cold sweat from free agency all those years ago.

I agree with everything you said. To clarify, I didn't mean that his contract would be in the 7's, I meant that his *ask* would be in the 7's (and then settle in the 6's). Apologies for the ambiguity.

 

[Bender]

I agree the Avs will change their philosophy with respect to trading players under contract as their window of contention changes. That's why I wrote that a proposal like Cossa and a 1st for Girard/Newhook wasn't totally out there.

I don't see Sakic/MacFarland going after older players like Statsny, Giroux or Malkin. If the Avs do, then they should tender them what would likely be an insulting offer to them but no extended term whatsoever. Older guys are injury prone and Sakic should not have forgotten that painful lesson no matter what the reputation of those vets are.

I'm fine with Fleury for a year. I'm also fine with DK, especially given his initial acquisition cost, but only if it's $5.5 or less. But I could see going after Gibson if the scouts think he will rebound. Hell if I know. I'm not a goalie guy. That's on Gigantor.

I think that would actually be totally out there.

I like Cossa as a prospect but there's just no guarantee he won't be the next Jacob Markstrom or Jack Campbell taking forever to become a legit starter.

In my view, you've got Girard who is worth more than a 1st since he's an established Top-4 puck-moving D on a good contract signed long-term and Newhook who is a former 1st round pick himself who just had a very good rookie season playing mostly on a 3rd line.

Both of these assets are worth much more than a roll of the dice, imo and a trade like that could easily backfire where we have nothing to show for having traded either of those guys.

 

[jaisen73]

There are so many factors with Nuke. First, he has absolutely earned the right to test free agency. Its an opportunity a lot of players never even get to and if someone wants to overpay him or go beyond what Colorado can offer I would be the first to say, "Sign and good luck to you." That said, I hope he recognizes that a huge part of his production has been being surrounded by a very, very talented team. If you're on a line with Mack, Landy, Rantanen, Kadri, etc. you're going to produce and if you don't you'll be back in the bottom 6. As much as I want him to stay I am also curious to see if Big Val can be a driver for another team like L.A. or Jersey, where he will have younger teammates looking to his experience and leadership.

I am confident that even if there is a massive makeover that Sakic and company will use the cap space to stay a contender. But it will have to come on the open market this time, as the draft pick cupboard is bare and the prospects are thinner. Going to be a crazy summer.

 

[flyfysher]

I think that would actually be totally out there.

I like Cossa as a prospect but there's just no guarantee he won't be the next Jacob Markstrom or Jack Campbell taking forever to become a legit starter.

In my view, you've got Girard who is worth more than a 1st since he's an established Top-4 puck-moving D on a good contract signed long-term and Newhook who is a former 1st round pick himself who just had a very good rookie season playing mostly on a 3rd line.

Both of these assets are worth much more than a roll of the dice, imo and a trade like that could easily backfire where we have nothing to show for having traded either of those guys.

It could backfire. It could work. I trust Sakic and company to make that call. My point is that the management should be looking to extend the cup window by any means necessary and that includes getting a #1 goalie. We might have one in Annunen, we might not. It's time for the team to start working on recruiting and developing goalies unlike the past.

But this particular deal is just an example of how Sakic has gone and gotten players through the unconventional route instead of through the draft. Francouz, Sedlak, and Meyers and avoided losing ground as a result of the salary cap.

I'm much more leery about your suggestion to bring on Statsny. I've seen enough with old vets like Tanguay, Beauchemin and Stuart to realize that suggestion is not a good one.

I've heard enough arguments about Girard and his worth. At this point, if I'm an opposing GM then I'm questioning his worth in the POs. I'm not saying that's fair or correct. But it'll undoubtedly be brought up.

 

[Chiarelli]

Really isn’t a great option at 2C for sign or trade at this time other than maybe kadri but if he wants to get paid that’s not an option for us. I bet Sakic goes with compher/Landy/Newhook/Rants at 2C through the season and see who becomes available by the deadline.

 

[Bender]

It could backfire. It could work. I trust Sakic and company to make that call. My point is that the management should be looking to extend the cup window by any means necessary and that includes getting a #1 goalie. We might have one in Annunen, we might not. It's time for the team to start working on recruiting and developing goalies unlike the past.

But this particular deal is just an example of how Sakic has gone and gotten players through the unconventional route instead of through the draft. Francouz, Sedlak, and Meyers and avoided losing ground as a result of the salary cap.

I'm much more leery about your suggestion to bring on Statsny. I've seen enough with old vets like Tanguay, Beauchemin and Stuart to realize that suggestion is not a good one.

I've heard enough arguments about Girard and his worth. At this point, if I'm an opposing GM then I'm questioning his worth in the POs. I'm not saying that's fair or correct. But it'll undoubtedly be brought up.

History is not on the side of "it could work" at least not in the scope that Cossa would come in and be the starter next year and have tremendous success. It's certainly not impossible but it's very improbable. Guys who have come straight out of junior or in their +1 year right to the NHL are certainly rare. The last guy I remember doing it was Dan Blackburn. Even Carey Price and Carter Hart - both very young goalies when they got their NHL gigs both finished out their junior careers before making the jump to the pro ranks.

But the Avs should have been drafting and developing goaltenders for quite some time now but I believe their amateur scouts have issues with identifying goaltenders that have the potential to develop into starters. So instead of using high draft picks to continually miss, they end up using those picks to trade for goaltenders who are further along which their pro scouts can more accurately make a projection on. I don't know if it's an organizational philosophy or not but even last year, the Avs could have moved up to get Cossa or Wallstedt in the draft but chose to stay put to draft a winger that is stylistically in the same mold as Burakovsky. I like OO just fine but when Wallstedt kept dropping - you have to swoop in knowing how weak you are at that position but I guess they just feel like Annunen is going to be the real deal.

As far as the veteran addition -> I think there is quite a bit of a difference between bringing in a vet in 2013 to play in your top-6 on THAT team than there is bringing in a vet like Stastny on a 1 year - $2M contract on THIS team to play on your 3rd line and your 2nd powerplay unit. Stastny was still able to put up a 20g - 40pt season in Winnipeg last year - that's not half bad. Hell, we signed Ryan Murray last year to that very same contract JUST IN CASE we needed him.

 

[Chiarelli]

Alright joe I know you’re hungover and haven’t rolled out of bed yet but the clocks ticking old sport

 

[shadow1]

I take it that since he never gets brought up that everyone is against Mackenzie Blackwood as an option?

He put up really solid numbers 2-3 seasons ago and his numbers recently were clearly impacted by the off-ice stuff and injury issues.

Perhaps he'd rediscover his best form with a fresh start on a team with a vastly better defense in front of him than he's been playing behind in NJ. If he does then you've potentially got a young long-term solution in net.

At $2.8m X 1 year the commitment would only be for one year (and RFA afterwards), and that low caphit would allow you to bring back some other UFA's.

Not sure what the price of acquisition would be, but I would guess that it would be closer to what Nedeljkovic (3rd) or Vanacek (2nd) went for than what Kuemper cost. If NJ bring in a starter as expected (i.e. they've been linked to Campbell and Husso), then you've got to think that Blackwood and his agent would also be pushing hard for a trade too.

It would of course be a gamble, but probably not that much more of a gamble than rolling the dice on Fleury or a long-term deal for Kuemper.

To me, Blackwood's a guy you go after if you're rebuilding and/or don't have much going on in net. If Colorado didn't have Francouz he'd be an intriguing back-up.

I have no idea why he's so bad suddenly. By advanced stats, New Jersey was average at worst last season; 15th in CF%, 15th in xGA, 14th in SC/A, and 5th (fewest) "High Danger" changes against. But Blackwood rewarded them with terrible numbers (3.39 GAA, .892 SV%), which get even worse if you remove his first month (November for him) of the season (3.67 GAA, 0.877 SV%).

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Sakic rarely hands out contracts he doesn't like and these players know they can make a ton more on the open market. Wouldn't surprise me if Nuke, Kadri, Kuemper and Manson all walked.

 

[jaisen73]

Sakic rarely hands out contracts he doesn't like and these players know they can make a ton more on the open market. Wouldn't surprise me if Nuke, Kadri, Kuemper and Manson all walked.

My best guess is the Avs keep Nuke and get Cogs on a 2 year/900k per contract or 1 year/1.25 million deal. All other UFAs walk.

 

[Richard88]

What do you guys think Compher's trade value is at this point?

Note that he just set career highs in:
- Games played (70 + 20 playoff games)
- Goals (18)
- Points (33)
- Faceoff % (51.4%)

He also scored some clutch goals in the playoffs (5 goals in 20 playoff games for 20 goal pace).

His contract at $3.5m AAV (and salary also at $3.5m) is pretty fair for the production he's provided.

GM's love versatile RHS forwards who can play up and down the lineup, play center or wing, win faceoffs, and play all-situations. Even moreso those with cup winning experience.

Sakic hasn't tended to trade players under contract much, but he did move Barrie as a pending UFA, as well as cashing in on Soderberg as a pending UFA for a pick that was flipped to Washington for Burakovsky.

I would have nothing against keeping Compher as he had a good season (especially playoffs). However, assuming that the 2C hole gets filled with a competent center and that capspace is tight, perhaps the smart move from an asset value perspective would be to sell high on Compher and fill the 3RW spot with a cheaper option (eg. NAK/Kaut/UFA), and have Meyers or Newhook at 3C (which might be the plan anyways).

He could either be part of a hockey trade, or bring back a draft pick that could be used to either re-stock the cupboards or be flipped for a roster player (like the Soderberg trade).

 

[Richard88]

Newhook for Necas straight up, who says no?

 

[flyfysher]

History is not on the side of "it could work" at least not in the scope that Cossa would come in and be the starter next year and have tremendous success. It's certainly not impossible but it's very improbable. Guys who have come straight out of junior or in their +1 year right to the NHL are certainly rare. The last guy I remember doing it was Dan Blackburn. Even Carey Price and Carter Hart - both very young goalies when they got their NHL gigs both finished out their junior careers before making the jump to the pro ranks.

But the Avs should have been drafting and developing goaltenders for quite some time now but I believe their amateur scouts have issues with identifying goaltenders that have the potential to develop into starters. So instead of using high draft picks to continually miss, they end up using those picks to trade for goaltenders who are further along which their pro scouts can more accurately make a projection on. I don't know if it's an organizational philosophy or not but even last year, the Avs could have moved up to get Cossa or Wallstedt in the draft but chose to stay put to draft a winger that is stylistically in the same mold as Burakovsky. I like OO just fine but when Wallstedt kept dropping - you have to swoop in knowing how weak you are at that position but I guess they just feel like Annunen is going to be the real deal.

As far as the veteran addition -> I think there is quite a bit of a difference between bringing in a vet in 2013 to play in your top-6 on THAT team than there is bringing in a vet like Stastny on a 1 year - $2M contract on THIS team to play on your 3rd line and your 2nd powerplay unit. Stastny was still able to put up a 20g - 40pt season in Winnipeg last year - that's not half bad. Hell, we signed Ryan Murray last year to that very same contract JUST IN CASE we needed him.

You're focusing way too much on Cossa. My point is that the management is going to have to be a lot more creative in trying to keep that window open.

I'm not for going down the path with older vets. But if you want to believe Stastny will sign for 1 year then fine.

 

[BigCKU]

I was thinking Avs needed to move Girard this summer. Now think Avs best move is to hold onto Girard and Toews for one more year. Next summer review the cap and see how Byram has improved and stayed healthy. Then make the decision to move Toews on his last year of his deal before the 5.9 cap hit kicks in or move Girard if there is a deal in place to extend Toews.

 

[Asinine]

People need to take a step back and realize what just won this team the cup when they suggest players like Stastny/Giroux - skating.

It's clear at this point that players who don't have the wheels don't fit in on this team.

 

[dahrougem2]

Call me crazy but I woke up with a weird feeling this morning that if Darcy Kuemper leaves, Joe is going to trade for James Reimer.

 

[jaisen73]

People need to take a step back and realize what just won this team the cup when they suggest players like Stastny/Giroux - skating.

It's clear at this point that players who don't have the wheels don't fit in on this team.

Stastny is the kind of player you add at the deadline. As much as I love him I don't want him for the regular season.

 

[Bender]

What do you guys think Compher's trade value is at this point?

Note that he just set career highs in:
- Games played (70 + 20 playoff games)
- Goals (18)
- Points (33)
- Faceoff % (51.4%)

He also scored some clutch goals in the playoffs (5 goals in 20 playoff games for 20 goal pace).

His contract at $3.5m AAV (and salary also at $3.5m) is pretty fair for the production he's provided.

GM's love versatile RHS forwards who can play up and down the lineup, play center or wing, win faceoffs, and play all-situations. Even moreso those with cup winning experience.

Sakic hasn't tended to trade players under contract much, but he did move Barrie as a pending UFA, as well as cashing in on Soderberg as a pending UFA for a pick that was flipped to Washington for Burakovsky.

I would have nothing against keeping Compher as he had a good season (especially playoffs). However, assuming that the 2C hole gets filled with a competent center and that capspace is tight, perhaps the smart move from an asset value perspective would be to sell high on Compher and fill the 3RW spot with a cheaper option (eg. NAK/Kaut/UFA), and have Meyers or Newhook at 3C (which might be the plan anyways).

He could either be part of a hockey trade, or bring back a draft pick that could be used to either re-stock the cupboards or be flipped for a roster player (like the Soderberg trade).

Mid 2nd round pick if someone out there just loves that guy and how he would fit in their system or chuck fletcher.

Overall, probably a late 2nd / early 3rd - I can't really see it being much higher. Ideally he's part of a deal that brings in a better even if we have to add. He's a good middle-6 player who can chip-in while being versatile and he's still young-ish.

Newhook for Necas straight up, who says no?

Value-wise I think it's pretty even but the fact that Newhook has another year left on his ELC tips the scale in favor of the Avs since both teams are contenders - that has value. Necas has put up back-to-back 40+ point seasons but will need a new contract and unfortunately is a winger.

Unlike many others, I believe it's too early to pigeon-hole Newhook as a winger without more experience under his belt and more opportunities at center. People around here are too "Jost-shocked" (shell-shocked) and terrified that it's going to happen again. By that same logic, MacKinnon would be also be a winger after his rookie season and I guess.

You're focusing way too much on Cossa. My point is that the management is going to have to be a lot more creative in trying to keep that window open.

I'm not for going down the path with older vets. But if you want to believe Stastny will sign for 1 year then fine.

He's gonna be 37 in December.. how long do you figure he's gonna play for to sign a multi-year contract at this point?

 

[flyfysher]

Mid 2nd round pick if someone out there just loves that guy and how he would fit in their system or chuck fletcher.

Overall, probably a late 2nd / early 3rd - I can't really see it being much higher. Ideally he's part of a deal that brings in a better even if we have to add. He's a good middle-6 player who can chip-in while being versatile and he's still young-ish.



Value-wise I think it's pretty even but the fact that Newhook has another year left on his ELC tips the scale in favor of the Avs since both teams are contenders - that has value. Necas has put up back-to-back 40+ point seasons but will need a new contract and unfortunately is a winger.

Unlike many others, I believe it's too early to pigeon-hole Newhook as a winger without more experience under his belt and more opportunities at center. People around here are too "Jost-shocked" (shell-shocked) and terrified that it's going to happen again. By that same logic, MacKinnon would be also be a winger after his rookie season and I guess.


He's gonna be 37 in December.. how long do you figure he's gonna play for to sign a multi-year contract at this point?

I don’t think Stastny can hold up for a full season with the Avs given the way they play. Really don’t want him unless it’s a TDL acquisition to fill a position of need.