Speculation: 2022-2023 General Lightning Discussion - Part 2

[DFC]

Sharks are asking for a 1st, a prospect and a roster player for Meier. New Jersey is the front runner per Pagnotta. So, I don't think we are in it for him.

A week ago I would've said Lafferty and somebody else like Domi/Barbashev would have really helped us and moved the needle but right now given what Boston and Toronto have done, how good those teams already are, I'm not sure two middle six defensive type wingers move the needle. I mean, who knows, but I feel like both Boston and Toronto made smarter moves this year.

As it stands, we are going to struggle on the PK (even PP if we can't shore up SHG) and the bottom six matchups against either of those teams. Our 4th is too slow and not much happens with Names, Paul and Colton together.

Would prefer an offensive threat at this point so we can move Cirelli down. We all know Cooper won't do that though.

Toronto getting O'Reilly was pretty huge. I just dont see us with the assets to do something like that because it would require extra assets to create the cap space.

We are really banking on Hedman returning to form, IMO. Otherwise we are definitely an underdog against the Leafs. Although, Vasy playing like he did last night could change that.

 

[ccman68]

1st + howard + colton. get it done. they can have more too if they want. we can use him as a rental and get most of the return back in the offseason

 

[These Are The Days]

1st + howard + colton. get it done. they can have more too if they want. we can use him as a rental and get most of the return back in the offseason

I'm good with it. Our top line chemistry is so too predictable and stagnant

 

[Lightning1995]

Why do many seem to feel this team isn’t as good as last year? Points percentage is virtually identical. Defense is worse no doubt but scoring is up around the league including the Bolts. Vassy shows flashes like last night and we know he can steal games when it matters.

We need Maroon off the 3rd line and quite frankly if Names goes in a cap move then a 4th line replacement is needed because the school bus line isn’t doable in the playoffs.

All that seems doable and I still see TB as one of the favorites in a loaded east. I will say Bostons recent deal might make them the favorites although we’ve owned them when it matters

 

[Stammertime91]

1st + howard + colton. get it done. they can have more too if they want. we can use him as a rental and get most of the return back in the offseason

Colton is much better than Namestnikov. If we made a move like that, it would be a 1st, Howard and Names, not Colton. Colton is actually useful in the playoffs whereas Names will be a ragdoll.

 

[DFC]

I'm good with it. Our top line chemistry is so too predictable and stagnant

...Got 99 problems but the top line ain't one.

Why do many seem to feel this team isn’t as good as last year? Points percentage is virtually identical. Defense is worse no doubt but scoring is up around the league including the Bolts. Vassy shows flashes like last night and we know he can steal games when it matters.

We need Maroon off the 3rd line and quite frankly if Names goes in a cap move then a 4th line replacement is needed because the school bus line isn’t doable in the playoffs.

All that seems doable and I still see TB as one of the favorites in a loaded east. I will say Bostons recent deal might make them the favorites although we’ve owned them when it matters

I think it's just the lapses on defense, and how often they happen. They have ALWAYS happened, even in the best years, but I think it's just a gut feeling that, while we replaced the scoring we lost, the D still isn't quite what it was. But it's more of a 5-man unit thing than just the Dmen. I think some of it comes down to everybody on last year's fourth line losing a step, and Maroon really didn't have one to lose.

 

[Stammertime91]

Why do many seem to feel this team isn’t as good as last year? Points percentage is virtually identical. Defense is worse no doubt but scoring is up around the league including the Bolts. Vassy shows flashes like last night and we know he can steal games when it matters.

We need Maroon off the 3rd line and quite frankly if Names goes in a cap move then a 4th line replacement is needed because the school bus line isn’t doable in the playoffs.

All that seems doable and I still see TB as one of the favorites in a loaded east. I will say Bostons recent deal might make them the favorites although we’ve owned them when it matters

I don't think we can keep getting by basing it off of the past though. Sure, we beat that Boston ass twice recently and it was delicious but you're kidding yourself if you think they haven't changed since the last postseason meeting. Even toronto has gotten deeper since last year and they might even make another move. Meanwhile, we have a defense that does not look as strong as those previous seasons.

Regular season points percentage is meaningless in comparison. We all know this team very well over the course of the last few years and what it takes to win. Our defense this year has not looked as good, especially for what we know it takes in postseason games. Perbix is a question mark (and I really like him), and Hedman looks subpar. We go into this one without McD and Rutta, but instead Bogo and Fleury. The only way to offset those woes is to stack the offense. I'm tired of seeing Stamkos open for a shot and Cirelli has his head buried looking at the ice and can't pass it to him. We need another threat up front to compete with where Toronto and Boston are at currently.

I'm confident we can still win a best of 7 against either but I'm not sure we make it out alive to get 16 wins after going through essentially both AND somebody like the Rangers just to make it to the final dance. We saw what happened last year, and we got a reprieve with horny kittens from Miami in round 2.

 

[DFC]

Sounds like the Kane deal is going to Friday, per Chris Johnston.

I actually wonder if Colorado should be a fairly overwhelming favorite right now, because their path is going to be so much easier than the blood bath that's gonna happen in the east. Nobody's coming out of the top 5 east teams unscathed. I feel pretty confident that if Toronto gets past us, and I do think they're a favorite, it'll cost them a few ribs and a kneecap or two.

EDIT: It's actually the top SIX teams in the East that are gonna be nuts. Forgot NJ, of all teams. Not sure if they're ready to contend, but they're gonna give at least one team fits.

 

[Stammertime91]

Sounds like the Kane deal is going to Friday, per Chris Johnston.

I actually wonder if Colorado should be a fairly overwhelming favorite right now, because their path is going to be so much easier than the blood bath that's gonna happen in the east. Nobody's coming out of the top 5 east teams unscathed. I feel pretty confident that if Toronto gets past us, and I do think they're a favorite, it'll cost them a few ribs and a kneecap or two.

I'd take anybody but them winning it again. Media for the most part made them insufferable last season. You'd think they didn't spend nearly two decades of being irrelevant and had rattled off 5 cups in a row after making it to the final last season. Please, anybody but Colorado.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Sounds like the Kane deal is going to Friday, per Chris Johnston.

I actually wonder if Colorado should be a fairly overwhelming favorite right now, because their path is going to be so much easier than the blood bath that's gonna happen in the east. Nobody's coming out of the top 5 east teams unscathed. I feel pretty confident that if Toronto gets past us, and I do think they're a favorite, it'll cost them a few ribs and a kneecap or two.

Avs have some injuries and depth issues

There really is no favorite in West its wide open and I am a little surprised that Avs, Kings, Stars, etc are not buyers right now. A couple of quality adds could really make difference in West

East is going to be bloodbath with everyone loading up

 

[Zwui21]

Jeannot is another player I'd love for JBB to get us. Still young, 800k contract, RFA at the end of the season (but eligible for arbitration).
Last season he was great, this season he's been in a slump (which also means chance to locking him up on next contract for cheaper). Would the Bolts offer him the change of scenery he needs to bounce back?
I could see him fit in very well.

 

[Rschmitz]

The reason Meier costs so much is because he ends in RFA status. OK, we could possibly pony up the assets needed to get him but then no way we'd keep him, He'd be a lame duck acquisition. Not saying it's impossible but there are way too many teams out there who would be in a better position than us to get him.

 

[DFC]

I don't think we can keep getting by basing it off of the past though. Sure, we beat that Boston ass twice recently and it was delicious but you're kidding yourself if you think they haven't changed since the last postseason meeting. Even toronto has gotten deeper since last year and they might even make another move. Meanwhile, we have a defense that does not look as strong as those previous seasons.

Regular season points percentage is meaningless in comparison. We all know this team very well over the course of the last few years and what it takes to win. Our defense this year has not looked as good, especially for what we know it takes in postseason games. Perbix is a question mark (and I really like him), and Hedman looks subpar. We go into this one without McD and Rutta, but instead Bogo and Fleury. The only way to offset those woes is to stack the offense. I'm tired of seeing Stamkos open for a shot and Cirelli has his head buried looking at the ice and can't pass it to him. We need another threat up front to compete with where Toronto and Boston are at currently.

I'm confident we can still win a best of 7 against either but I'm not sure we make it out alive to get 16 wins after going through essentially both AND somebody like the Rangers just to make it to the final dance. We saw what happened last year, and we got a reprieve with horny kittens from Miami in round 2.

I only disagree about trying to make up for defensive issues with offense. We have a long history of that getting us burned. I'm not saying the guy we pick up should be offensively impotent, but I feel like the defensive side is more important. We have to assume the team will get more consistent defensively, because, well, they always do, and also, if they don't, we're fxxxed no matter what we do.

I think you can count on one hand the amount of pure rentals we've acquired in the last 10-12 years. Savard comes to mind, and I can't think of another one off the top of my head.

We've only scored 10 fewer goals than Boson, if I'm not mistaken. They've had a big, big boost from their goaltending this year, but I wouldn't bet on Ullmark over Vasy in a 7 game series just yet. And our defense should improve once we button ourselves into our structure. I fear Toronto a lot more, honestly.

 

[Rschmitz]

BTW Meier-Point-Kucherov would easily be the best line in the NHL. I can't think imagine a better combination of forwards that would compliment each other w/o invoking McDavid's name. Kucherov would have 100+ assists a year

 

[Zwui21]

The reason Meier costs so much is because he ends in RFA status. OK, we could possibly pony up the assets needed to get him but then no way we'd keep him, He'd be a lame duck acquisition. Not saying it's impossible but there are way too many teams out there who would be in a better position than us to get him.

I think it's pretty much between Devils and LV for him at this point, with the Devils reportedly being the favorites in landing him

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

The reason Meier costs so much is because he ends in RFA status. OK, we could possibly pony up the assets needed to get him but then no way we'd keep him, He'd be a lame duck acquisition. Not saying it's impossible but there are way too many teams out there who would be in a better position than us to get him.

I guess the argument is that we could get assets back for Meier if we flipped him in the summer. But he comes with a $10M qualifying offer and that sets a hard deadline for flipping him.

 

[DFC]

I'd take anybody but them winning it again. Media for the most part made them insufferable last season. You'd think they didn't spend nearly two decades of being irrelevant and had rattled off 5 cups in a row after making it to the final last season. Please, anybody but Colorado.

Well, to that point, I think if both teams were healthy, it would have been a neck and neck series. Both teams lost a bit in the off-season, but I think we've done a better job filling holes.

 

[JTBF81]

Since Tampa has no 1st until.'25, in order to have any chance of beating out Vegas, N.J. or Carolina(who all.have their '23 and '24 1sts) on Meier, it would likely take even more to.land him. Since he's not what the team should be focusing on anyway, and there's 0 chance of extending him, tossing the equivalent of 2 1sts++ to have a shot at him is poor asset management imo. JBB has never gone that all in on a player for one run, and neither did his mentor, Yzerman. I find it very unlikely he starts now. Even if Tampa could recoup something by trading him after the season, the overall loss in futures isn't worth it for a small % bump at the Cup for one year. If Tampa hadn't already won a Cup with this group and/or this.year seemed like the end of the window, maybe you do this. Since neither applies to Tampa, instead hopefully JBB bolsters the bottom 6 and maybe the defense with a couple of smaller adds and calls it a day.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Can the Lightning even trade 2025 1st?

There are protections on 2024 1st if it's a top 10 pick from what I recall and while very unlikely if it did happen would not the pick slide to 2025 1st round?

As far as I know the conditions beside top 10 protection have never been released but I would imagine it would slide to 2025 thus wouldn't the Lightning be prevented from moving pick incase they have to meet conditions of lottery protected status?

 

[JTBF81]

Yeah I should revisit what I wrote there, the fact of hearing big names floating around went to my head and wrote some short sighted stuff.
I see what you mean and I tend to agree with what you say, I also probably worded out my thoughts poorly.

I know we cannot make a huge spalsh, but adding some middle 6 players that can provide speed, grit but also offensive upside... Someone that can chip in on the scoresheet as well would be huge for us, in order to diversify our scoring production as much as we can.

But obviously being in a tight cap it isn't easy, having little assets means we gotta try and manage them with care.
IMO Barbashev would be very interesting, if we could afford to re-sign him this summer (which would likely be very difficult).

Otherwise at this point Lafferty seems the obvious play, not only for what he brings on the ice but also for his low cap AAV until end of next season.
But then, will JBB get another F to bolster our top6 or rather go and add someone for the Dcore?
I'd pay good money to be able to follow JBB and the staff discussions and though process the month leading up to the deadline.

It's all good. I wish they could go out and get a big piece as well without crippling what futures they have left, but i just dont feel it's worth it for one run just yet. I don't think you worded anything poorly btw. I also agree with pretty much everything you said here.

Speaking of candidates to possibly add, although Barbashev is out, Tampa could look at Alexander Barabanov from S.J. He's signed for another year at 2.5, and he's having a good year. He wouldn't be cheap no doubt, but it seems like he could easily fit on the 2nd or 3rd line. Jeannot is another good option as well for the middle 6, as could be Trenin, Robinson from CBJ, and of course, Lafferty. For defense, the name I still have is Nick Seeler from Philly. He has fairly solid underlying numbers and is signed through next year at only 775k. If Philly is willing to trade him, he could be a solid add to that unit.

 

[JTBF81]

Can the Lightning even trade 2025 1st?



There are protections on 2024 1st if it's a top 10 pick from what I recall and while very unlikely if it did happen would not the pick slide to 2025 1st round?



As far as I know the conditions beside top 10 protection have never been released but I would imagine it would slide to 2025 thus wouldn't the Lightning be prevented from moving pick incase they have to meet conditions of lottery protected status?





I believe they can, but there would have to be conditions attached such that should the '24 pick for Chicago transfer to '25, then the '25 pick from hypothetical trade transfers to '26. I think that's allowed anyway.

 

[Stammertime91]

I only disagree about trying to make up for defensive issues with offense. We have a long history of that getting us burned. I'm not saying the guy we pick up should be offensively impotent, but I feel like the defensive side is more important. We have to assume the team will get more consistent defensively, because, well, they always do, and also, if they don't, we're fxxxed no matter what we do.

I think you can count on one hand the amount of pure rentals we've acquired in the last 10-12 years. Savard comes to mind, and I can't think of another one off the top of my head.

We've only scored 10 fewer goals than Boson, if I'm not mistaken. They've had a big, big boost from their goaltending this year, but I wouldn't bet on Ullmark over Vasy in a 7 game series just yet. And our defense should improve once we button ourselves into our structure. I fear Toronto a lot more, honestly.

Normally I'd say yes, and did a couple weeks ago before Toronto got O'Reilly but I feel a bit different now. Let's be real, are we confident in Killorn, Cirelli and Stamkos as our second line with Paul, Colton and Names as the 3rd? If the 1st line gets shut down by Bergeron or O'Reilly (hypothetical as I can't recall anybody locking them up), then we are reliant on a middle 6 with barely any offensive prowess. Like These are the Days has been saying, how many times do we try to snuff the opponent out and win 2-1 or something? We've done it for 2 cups, yes, but this team has lost the pieces that got it done. We lost 11 goals IIRC from playoffs alone with Palat. Adding a 1-3 goal postseason guy with good defensive abilities might not even help us through one round.

All I'm saying is that, the tide feels like it turned so far. Brisebois still has time of course, but it feels like the gap is really close now and the moves other teams have made were A+ for them and rough for us to witness.

 

[Stammertime91]

Well, to that point, I think if both teams were healthy, it would have been a neck and neck series. Both teams lost a bit in the off-season, but I think we've done a better job filling holes.

I agree. I think both teams being healthy sees us win it though. Obviously bias. Hagel definitely softened the regular season woes of losing Palat. Cole has done well in his role as McD off wish, but our defense doesn't look as sound but I feel like that's out of JBB's hands at this point. Adding a rental D probably won't move the needle.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

Agreed with all. Killorn just snapped a 16 game goalless streak. I’d say him having a subpar playoffs again is more likely than not.

 

[Point21]

East just got scarier