2022-2023 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[stl76]

I think there is fair criticism of Parayko to be had, but I agree that we have to acknowledge that his usage doesn’t help him be more productive.

I’m probably overreacting, but reading the last couple pages I’m worried that my eyes might roll out of my head. It’s only 1 data point, but let’s compare at all situations d zone start % between Parayko and a group of widely considered top dmen this past regular season:

Parayko - 64.9
Pietrangelo - 50.0
Slavin - 49.6
Doughty - 48.0
McAvoy - 42.6
Chabot - 41.7
Fox - 41.5
Makar - 37.5
Reilly - 36.3
Heiskanen - 34.7
Josi - 33.8

There’s a pretty stark difference in how Parayko is utilized, yet it seems like a lot of folks either don’t realize this or fail to acknowledge it when complaining about his performance. Parayko had an up and down year by his own standards, and I am certainly not denying this fact…but we need to examine our own expectations given his usage.

 

[Brian39]

Really? So if he doesn’t play for the National Team they’ll yank him out of the NHL and throw him into the Finnish army?

Is there a link explaining any of this?

No, he would not be yanked out of the NHL. The countries (Russia excluded) that have this compulsory service allow players to complete it in chunks during the offseason. Usually, competing for the National Team counts as time toward this service (or triggers a waiver of the service requirement). If he refuses to play, they wouldn't pull him out of the NHL. They would tell him "okay, well in that case you still owe us some service time so you can do that instead."

The choice isn't 'play for the national team this summer or go to the Army during the NHL season.' It is 'play for the national team this summer or go complete your military service this summer.' Pretty easy choice to play for the national team if you aren't injured.

I'm not familiar with all the ins and outs of the Finnish service requirements, but the gist of that comment was that it is a hell of a lot more convenient to go play in the World Championships than to fulfill your service obligation in other ways during the summer.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The other, maybe better comps would be guys like Pelech or Lindell that match better stylistically and deployment wise, but the big difference between them is 5v5 minutes played. Parayko was 9th in ES TOI/GP, Pelech was 38th. Parayko is also 6th in shifts/game.

It's fine to say that Parayko is not a true #1, but he has the role of the best shutdown defender in the league. We run him into the ground and then act surprised when he's either inconsistent or not playing elite level hockey. That's some level of insanity.

 

[STL fan in MN]

No, he would not be yanked out of the NHL. The countries (Russia excluded) that have this compulsory service allow players to complete it in chunks during the offseason. Usually, competing for the National Team counts as time toward this service (or triggers a waiver of the service requirement). If he refuses to play, they wouldn't pull him out of the NHL. They would tell him "okay, well in that case you still owe us some service time so you can do that instead."

The choice isn't 'play for the national team this summer or go to the Army during the NHL season.' It is 'play for the national team this summer or go complete your military service this summer.' Pretty easy choice to play for the national team if you aren't injured.

I'm not familiar with all the ins and outs of the Finnish service requirements, but the gist of that comment was that it is a hell of a lot more convenient to go play in the World Championships than to fulfill your service obligation in other ways during the summer.

Gotcha. Thanks for the details. Absolutely
makes sense most would choose hockey over some sort of boot camp. I’d heard some of that before but hadn’t ever really paid much attention to it much.

This is also the first year in a long time I’ve actually paid any attention to the WC. I guess that happens when the team you root for is usually busy this time of year but certainly isn’t this year…

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

i was hoping neighbours would get selected. should be good for his development.

 

[Brian39]

The other, maybe better comps would be guys like Pelech or Lindell that match better stylistically and deployment wise, but the big difference between them is 5v5 minutes played. Parayko was 9th in ES TOI/GP, Pelech was 38th. Parayko is also 6th in shifts/game.

It's fine to say that Parayko is not a true #1, but he has the role of the best shutdown defender in the league. We run him into the ground and then act surprised when he's either inconsistent or not playing elite level hockey. That's some level of insanity.

Natural Stat Trick has stats going back to 2007/08.

Parayko is the first D man in their database to log 1500+ minutes at 5 on 5 with an O-Zone start rate below 35%. He played 1554 minutes (in 79 games) and his O-Zone start rate was 30.5%, so he exceeded both cutoffs by a pretty healthy margin.

In that same timeframe, there have only been 6 total instances where a D man has played 1500+ 5 on 5 minutes and had an O-Zone start rate below 40%. Parayko makes up two of those 6 instances because he hit that benchmark last year as well. He is the only guy with two such seasons on his resume.

There is a real argument to be made that Parayko's usage this year was the most difficult assignment that any D man has had in the cap era. The lack of D man being used like him isn't the result of a new trend where coaches put their best guys in more offensive situations. For as long as we've tracked this data, no one used their top D the way we use Parayko.

Parayko has stuff to work on and I'm not fully sold that he is good enough to effectively handle a 'normal' #1 shutdown D workload with a partner of Leddy's caliber. He excelled in that role with J-Bo, so I am fairly confident that he could do it again with the right partner. But this debate absolutely needs to be held with the context that we've asked way, way more than that of him n the last 2 years.

 

[bleedblue1223]

It's why I'd love to target a Hanifin type or if Chabot is even possible, making a big move for him. If we want to run an ultra defensive pairing, that pairing has to be stacked with overwhelming amount of quality, or we can run a more balanced top 4 where the Faulk pair can carry a bit more of the defensive burden if he gets a proper partner capable of handling some of those minutes.

It's something I'm really curious to see who was behind. Is this Berube's decision or was it Van Ryn's. If the new assistant has that control, then I have hope, but if running Parayko into the ground, in a similar way that we do with Binnington, then I'm not very hopeful. At least down the stretch, it improved, at least from my eye test, and that was also when Scandella was playing and with Faulk.

 

[Mike Liut]

i could really see Army making a blockbuster move. Both late 1sts + roster player and / or prospect + cap dump for a top pairing LD

 

[Xerloris]

Natural Stat Trick has stats going back to 2007/08.

Parayko is the first D man in their database to log 1500+ minutes at 5 on 5 with an O-Zone start rate below 35%. He played 1554 minutes (in 79 games) and his O-Zone start rate was 30.5%, so he exceeded both cutoffs by a pretty healthy margin.

In that same timeframe, there have only been 6 total instances where a D man has played 1500+ 5 on 5 minutes and had an O-Zone start rate below 40%. Parayko makes up two of those 6 instances because he hit that benchmark last year as well. He is the only guy with two such seasons on his resume.

There is a real argument to be made that Parayko's usage this year was the most difficult assignment that any D man has had in the cap era. The lack of D man being used like him isn't the result of a new trend where coaches put their best guys in more offensive situations. For as long as we've tracked this data, no one used their top D the way we use Parayko.

Parayko has stuff to work on and I'm not fully sold that he is good enough to effectively handle a 'normal' #1 shutdown D workload with a partner of Leddy's caliber. He excelled in that role with J-Bo, so I am fairly confident that he could do it again with the right partner. But this debate absolutely needs to be held with the context that we've asked way, way more than that of him n the last 2 years.

Yet there are some people here saying if he was good enough he could do this type of workload with any D partner and he could raise them to his lvl.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Yet there are some people here saying if he was good enough he could do this type of workload with any D partner and he could raise them to his lvl.

Maybe if he were Chris pronger. But that is about it.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Blais was nominated for the Masterton.

Are there more deserving candidates than Blais?

 

[mk80]

Kapanen has enlisted for the mandatory army service in Finnish defense forces, but he can apply for a break from the service by competing at top level sports. Thus, seeing Kapanen playing for Finland seems a certainty.

Oh I hadn't realized that he was enlisting for that. Either way his fitness will be kept in shape this summer for sure.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Oh I hadn't realized that he was enlisting for that. Either way his fitness will be kept in shape this summer for sure.

Good! That boy needs it in a big big way.

 

[Mohko]

No, he would not be yanked out of the NHL. The countries (Russia excluded) that have this compulsory service allow players to complete it in chunks during the offseason. Usually, competing for the National Team counts as time toward this service (or triggers a waiver of the service requirement). If he refuses to play, they wouldn't pull him out of the NHL. They would tell him "okay, well in that case you still owe us some service time so you can do that instead."

The choice isn't 'play for the national team this summer or go to the Army during the NHL season.' It is 'play for the national team this summer or go complete your military service this summer.' Pretty easy choice to play for the national team if you aren't injured.

I'm not familiar with all the ins and outs of the Finnish service requirements, but the gist of that comment was that it is a hell of a lot more convenient to go play in the World Championships than to fulfill your service obligation in other ways during the summer.

Brian is spot on here. This is the most convenient way of completing the service for athletes.
It has little of likeliness to the ordinary service and is done in shortened period. NBA player Lauri Markkanen is also doing his service at the moment.

It is pretty hilarious to read the comments from the states regarding how the compulsory service is seen. It is basically getting know how to be tidy and fire couple of rounds with an assault rifle.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Brian is spot on here. This is the most convenient way of completing the service for athletes.
It has little of likeliness to the ordinary service and is done in shortened period. NBA player Lauri Markkanen is also doing his service at the moment.

It is pretty hilarious to read the comments from the states regarding how the compulsory service is seen. It is basically getting know how to be tidy and fire couple of rounds with an assault rifle.

Don't tread on me, Big Gubmint!!

 

[Mike Liut]

I feel like there’s so many flawed teams in the nhl right. With a few moves, we could be back in contention quickly. Especially if Snuggs, Bolduc, Dean and Neighbors pan out.

 

[PJJJP]

Rutherford had an article on the Athletic interviewing Army. Here are some interesting things I read
1. If the blues got the first overall it would've made them more likely to keep both of the later picks to build around Bedard. He expects whoever they pick at 10 to not make an impact for 36 months after drafted.
2. He says around where they are picking that it's forward heavy but there have been some D in the range
3. 33% chance they keep both late picks, 33% they trade one, 33% they trade 1 and move down for 2 seconds
4. He doesn't expect/hopes next year isn't as bad as this year

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I have my druther, so I don’t read Ruther…ford.

 

[Beauterham]

Rutherford had an article on the Athletic interviewing Army. Here are some interesting things I read
1. If the blues got the first overall it would've made them more likely to keep both of the later picks to build around Bedard. He expects whoever they pick at 10 to not make an impact for 36 months after drafted.
2. He says around where they are picking that it's forward heavy but there have been some D in the range
3. 33% chance they keep both late picks, 33% they trade one, 33% they trade 1 and move down for 2 seconds
4. He doesn't expect/hopes next year isn't as bad as this year

This is the actual quote:
“This isn’t trying to be evasive, but I think it’s one-third, one-third, one-third. It’s one-third we pick them both, one-third we trade one for an NHL player, and one-third we move one (first-round pick) to get two second(-round picks).”

What's interesting is the bolded. He mentions using only ONE pick to trade for a NHL player. It seems we're set on picking twice in the first and potentially only using one of our late first to either use in a trade for a player or to move down for 2 seconds: Detroit, Chicago, Seattle, Anaheim, all have three 2nd's. Minnesota, Nashville have two. Seeing Army and Yzerman like to deal with eachother that seems like an obvious trade. Would, for example, 25 for 42 and 43 work?

 

[TK 421]

This is the actual quote:
“This isn’t trying to be evasive, but I think it’s one-third, one-third, one-third. It’s one-third we pick them both, one-third we trade one for an NHL player, and one-third we move one (first-round pick) to get two second(-round picks).”

What's interesting is the bolded. He mentions using only ONE pick to trade for a NHL player. It seems we're set on picking twice in the first and potentially only using one of our late first to either use in a trade for a player or to move down for 2 seconds: Detroit, Chicago, Seattle, Anaheim, all have three 2nd's. Minnesota, Nashville have two. Seeing Army and Yzerman like to deal with eachother that seems like an obvious trade. Would, for example, 25 for 42 and 43 work?

Possibly, but obviously Yzerman would have to really like someone late first who also still happens to be available. Those three 2nds Detroit has are just inside the top of the 2nd and pretty valuable themselves. That's the same trade I've been eyeballing for a while and I think your instincts are spot on here. Lots of history making trades and a potential fit regarding needs.

The exciting part to me is that DA seems to be seriously considering trading down from that third 1st in order to get a pair of 2nds. I'd love that and it would be my preference if he's unable to use it as currency to acquire a defenseman.

So in order of preference...

1. Make two selections, trade third 1st for a defenseman.
2. Make two selections, trade third 1st for pair of 2nds.
3. Make all three selections.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

Does Chicago winning the Bedard sweepstakes change anyone's evaluation of the off-season and the next couple years after that? I think now I'm more inclined to keep all 3 assets at the draft than try and work some short term magic to appease ownership and fans immediate wants.. Suck hard again next year, hopefully finish in that 4-8 range, perhaps accumulate another 1st and take advantage of another really deep class. If Army shoots his wad too early, there's more than a possibility of us being in the shadow of the Hawks for a decade plus and experiencing the Kane, Towes, Keith, Price era all over again.

 

[stlbluz]

No mention of our cup winning move: Blues agree to terms with Laferriere

 

[Brian39]

Does Chicago winning the Bedard sweepstakes change anyone's evaluation of the off-season and the next couple years after that? I think now I'm more inclined to keep all 3 assets at the draft than try and work some short term magic to appease ownership and fans immediate wants.. Suck hard again next year, hopefully finish in that 4-8 range, perhaps accumulate another 1st and take advantage of another really deep class. If Army shoots his wad too early, there's more than a possibility of us being in the shadow of the Hawks for a decade plus and experiencing the Kane, Towes, Keith, Price era all over again.

It doesn't really change my opinion at all. There were 4 truly terrible teams in the NHL this year and 3 of them were in the West. If you set the 'truly awful' cutoff at 70 points, then the West had 4 of the 6 teams. There was a 57% chance that Bedard was going to go to a Western Conference rival (vs 39.5% chance of him going to the East). Beyond the Bedard sweepstakes, odds were very good that the West was going to land 2-3 of the big 4 prospects (or 3-4 of the top 5 if you buy some of the recent hype that Will Smith has gotten himself into that tier).

Looking past just the top of this draft, the West is down right now, which means that there are several teams that have stockpiled futures.

Arizona has amassed the biggest futures war chest that I've ever seen. They currently have a top 10 prospect pool, they have picks #6 and #12 in this draft plus their own 2nd rounder. They are about to have a prospect pool that has 6 guys who were drafted in the top 12 and 6 additional guys who were drafted in the top 45. All but one of these 12 prospects will have been drafted in 2021 or later, so their timelines all roughly line up. In addition to that top heavy AND deep prospect pool, the Coyotes also hold nine 3rd round picks in the next 3 drafts and eight 2nd round picks for 2024 and 2025. They also have about $48M in cap space in 2023/24.

Chicago had built a pretty good futures war chest pre-lottery. They currently have a toop 10 prospect pool. We knew that they were going to get one of the top 5 prospects in this draft, they have a 1st plus four 2nd rounders in this draft, and then they have two 1sts in both 2024 and 2025. They have about $42M in cap space for 2023/24.

The Ducks have also built a nice little war chest of futures. Another top 10 prospect pool. They don't have surplus 1sts, but we knew that they were going to land a top 3 prospect pre-lottery and they do have six 2nds and 6 3rds over the next 3 drafts. Not the glut of picks and prospects that Arizona/Chicago have, but Zegras/Mctavish already in the NHL bridge that gap a bit. $39M in cap space for 2023/24.

I think that any long-term plan already had to account for at least one of these teams (and likely two) turning into a genuine powerhouse through the late 2020s. Bedard going to Chicago obviously moves the needle for them, but the possibility of them being that team was already pretty damn high. The lottery doesn't change my long-term planning, because I was already banking on Chicago returning to 'top 5' status when they pulled out of their rebuild.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

It doesn't really change my opinion at all. There were 4 truly terrible teams in the NHL this year and 3 of them were in the West. If you set the 'truly awful' cutoff at 70 points, then the West had 4 of the 6 teams. There was a 57% chance that Bedard was going to go to a Western Conference rival (vs 39.5% chance of him going to the East). Beyond the Bedard sweepstakes, odds were very good that the West was going to land 2-3 of the big 4 prospects (or 3-4 of the top 5 if you buy some of the recent hype that Will Smith has gotten himself into that tier).

Looking past just the top of this draft, the West is down right now, which means that there are several teams that have stockpiled futures.

Arizona has amassed the biggest futures war chest that I've ever seen. They currently have a top 10 prospect pool, they have picks #6 and #12 in this draft plus they have nine 2nd and nine 3rd rounders spread across the next 3 drafts. They also have about $48M in cap space in 2023/24.

Chicago had built a pretty good futures war chest pre-lottery. They currently have a toop 10 prospect pool. We knew that they were going to get one of the top 5 prospects in this draft, they have a 1st plus four 2nd rounders in this draft, and then they have two 1sts in both 2024 and 2025. They have about $42M in cap space for 2023/24.

The Ducks have also built a nice little war chest of futures. Another top 10 prospect pool. They don't have surplus 1sts, but we knew that they were going to land a top 3 prospect pre-lottery and they do have six 2nds and 6 3rds over the next 3 drafts. Not the glut of picks and prospects that Arizona/Chicago have, but Zegras/Mctavish already in the NHL bridge that gap a bit. $39M in cap space for 2023/24.

I think that any long-term plan already had to account for at least one of these teams (and likely two) turning into a genuine powerhouse through the late 2020s. Bedard going to Chicago obviously moves the needle for them

Few things in sports bother me to the point of feeling ill. Watching Bouw almost die was one of them. Bergevin tossing the puck in our own net, and the Hawks landing Bedard both qualify. This draft was already an important one, but I would say the ante has been uped for Armstrong with Bedard likely to expedite the rebuild in Chicago by a couple years. Our ability to hit on our picks over the next two drafts is paramount.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Possibly, but obviously Yzerman would have to really like someone late first who also still happens to be available. Those three 2nds Detroit has are just inside the top of the 2nd and pretty valuable themselves. That's the same trade I've been eyeballing for a while and I think your instincts are spot on here. Lots of history making trades and a potential fit regarding needs.

The exciting part to me is that DA seems to be seriously considering trading down from that third 1st in order to get a pair of 2nds. I'd love that and it would be my preference if he's unable to use it as currency to acquire a defenseman.

So in order of preference...

1. Make two selections, trade third 1st for a defenseman.
2. Make two selections, trade third 1st for pair of 2nds.
3. Make all three selections.

I’d more or less agree with that…depending upon who the d-man we could trade for is. And depending upon who all is still available when it’s time to make our 3rd selection. If a really good player is still there, take the damn pick!