2022-2023 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[Bye Bye Blueston]

It doesn't really change my opinion at all. There were 4 truly terrible teams in the NHL this year and 3 of them were in the West. If you set the 'truly awful' cutoff at 70 points, then the West had 4 of the 6 teams. There was a 57% chance that Bedard was going to go to a Western Conference rival (vs 39.5% chance of him going to the East). Beyond the Bedard sweepstakes, odds were very good that the West was going to land 2-3 of the big 4 prospects (or 3-4 of the top 5 if you buy some of the recent hype that Will Smith has gotten himself into that tier).

Looking past just the top of this draft, the West is down right now, which means that there are several teams that have stockpiled futures.

Arizona has amassed the biggest futures war chest that I've ever seen. They currently have a top 10 prospect pool, they have picks #6 and #12 in this draft plus their own 2nd rounder. They are about to have a prospect pool that has 6 guys who were drafted in the top 12 and 6 additional guys who were drafted in the top 45. All but one of these 12 prospects will have been drafted in 2021 or later, so their timelines all roughly line up. In addition to that top heavy AND deep prospect pool, the Coyotes also hold nine 3rd round picks in the next 3 drafts and eight 2nd round picks for 2024 and 2025. They also have about $48M in cap space in 2023/24.

Chicago had built a pretty good futures war chest pre-lottery. They currently have a toop 10 prospect pool. We knew that they were going to get one of the top 5 prospects in this draft, they have a 1st plus four 2nd rounders in this draft, and then they have two 1sts in both 2024 and 2025. They have about $42M in cap space for 2023/24.

The Ducks have also built a nice little war chest of futures. Another top 10 prospect pool. They don't have surplus 1sts, but we knew that they were going to land a top 3 prospect pre-lottery and they do have six 2nds and 6 3rds over the next 3 drafts. Not the glut of picks and prospects that Arizona/Chicago have, but Zegras/Mctavish already in the NHL bridge that gap a bit. $39M in cap space for 2023/24.

I think that any long-term plan already had to account for at least one of these teams (and likely two) turning into a genuine powerhouse through the late 2020s. Bedard going to Chicago obviously moves the needle for them, but the possibility of them being that team was already pretty damn high. The lottery doesn't change my long-term planning, because I was already banking on Chicago returning to 'top 5' status when they pulled out of their rebuild.

Chicago has 1 prime prospect (korchinski) at the moment (pre-Bedard). A couple other decent prospects. And a couple late 1sts from Tampa and a bunch of 2nds and 3rds. And basically nothing else on their roster. Unless they snag another top 3 pick next year, which they may, I don't really see anything that suggests they are building some sort of juggernaut. McDavid was picked 8 years ago and won, what, 1 playoff series? And he has Draisaitl with him. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion Hawks are building a juggernaut. Not saying they won't eventually be contenders with Bedard, bc he is good enough they likely will, but that is a long way off and in no way preordained.

ducks are team that looks like they are building something exciting to me. they have several high end d prospects (their kids won top d award in whl, ohl, AND chl!), couple really interesting young forwards in mctavish and zegras, #2 pick this year, and likely to get lottery pick next year. and they actually have a handful of useful roster players, unlike chicago.

 

[Brian39]

Chicago has 1 prime prospect (korchinski) at the moment (pre-Bedard). A couple other decent prospects. And a couple late 1sts from Tampa and a bunch of 2nds and 3rds. And basically nothing else on their roster. Unless they snag another top 3 pick next year, which they may, I don't really see anything that suggests they are building some sort of juggernaut. McDavid was picked 8 years ago and won, what, 1 playoff series? And he has Draisaitl with him. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion Hawks are building a juggernaut. Not saying they won't eventually be contenders with Bedard, bc he is good enough they likely will, but that is a long way off and in no way preordained.

ducks are team that looks like they are building something exciting to me. they have several high end d prospects (their kids won top d award in whl, ohl, AND chl!), couple really interesting young forwards in mctavish and zegras, #2 pick this year, and likely to get lottery pick next year. and they actually have a handful of useful roster players, unlike chicago.

I'd say Reichel is either prime or prime-adjacent depending on how exclusive your group of prime prospects is. He had 57 points in 56 games in the AHL as a 19 year old and followed that up with 51 points in 55 AHL games and 15 points in 23 NHL games as a 20 year old. If your definition of prime prospect doesn't include him, then there certainly needs to be a tier between prime and decent.

I agree that Chicago isn't a lock to be a juggernaut (and am discussing that in a different thread), but if you're talking about predicting your own window and predicting the landscape of the league around you, then your plan/prediction has to account for them possibly being an elite team in the late 2020s.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I'd say Reichel is either prime or prime-adjacent depending on how exclusive your group of prime prospects is. He had 57 points in 56 games in the AHL as a 19 year old and followed that up with 51 points in 55 AHL games and 15 points in 23 NHL games as a 20 year old. If your definition of prime prospect doesn't include him, then there certainly needs to be a tier between prime and decent.

I agree that Chicago isn't a lock to be a juggernaut (and am discussing that in a different thread), but if you're talking about predicting your own window and predicting the landscape of the league around you, then your plan/prediction has to account for them possibly being an elite team in the late 2020s.

Reichel is prime too. Fair enough. Forgot about him. I’m not saying Chicago won’t be one of top teams in league in 5 years, just saying that I don’t see that they are going to be so scary that we can just assume they are gonna win multiple Cups.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

You guys should take a peep at CapFriendly. After this coming season, the Blackhawks will only have Connor Bedard, Seth Jones, Connor Murphy, and their prospects like Korchinski and Soderblom under contract.

They can fix this thing really, really fast if they so choose.

 

[The Note]

You guys should take a peep at CapFriendly. After this coming season, the Blackhawks will only have Connor Bedard, Seth Jones, Connor Murphy, and their prospects like Korchinski and Soderblom under contract.

They can fix this thing really, really fast if they so choose.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

View attachment 706223

I’m honestly starting to get the feeling that unless Army crushes this draft/offseason, we’re not going to be a contender for another 4-5 seasons at least.

Colorado and Dallas will be good for awhile with their elite cores. Chicago and Arizona SHOULD become very, very scary teams over the next few years, and Minnesota also has a damn good prospect pool that will offset a potential down year next season.

We also have to assume there will be some growing pains with moving out vets for young guys like Snuggerud, Bolduc, Dean, and at least one of our 1st’s this year.

Army needs to pull some Summer of 2018 magic out of his hat. That team was looking more rough before the draft than we’re currently at right now, albeit with a fair amount more cap space.

 

[Xerloris]

It doesn't really change my opinion at all. There were 4 truly terrible teams in the NHL this year and 3 of them were in the West. If you set the 'truly awful' cutoff at 70 points, then the West had 4 of the 6 teams. There was a 57% chance that Bedard was going to go to a Western Conference rival (vs 39.5% chance of him going to the East). Beyond the Bedard sweepstakes, odds were very good that the West was going to land 2-3 of the big 4 prospects (or 3-4 of the top 5 if you buy some of the recent hype that Will Smith has gotten himself into that tier).

Looking past just the top of this draft, the West is down right now, which means that there are several teams that have stockpiled futures.

Arizona has amassed the biggest futures war chest that I've ever seen. They currently have a top 10 prospect pool, they have picks #6 and #12 in this draft plus their own 2nd rounder. They are about to have a prospect pool that has 6 guys who were drafted in the top 12 and 6 additional guys who were drafted in the top 45. All but one of these 12 prospects will have been drafted in 2021 or later, so their timelines all roughly line up. In addition to that top heavy AND deep prospect pool, the Coyotes also hold nine 3rd round picks in the next 3 drafts and eight 2nd round picks for 2024 and 2025. They also have about $48M in cap space in 2023/24.

Chicago had built a pretty good futures war chest pre-lottery. They currently have a toop 10 prospect pool. We knew that they were going to get one of the top 5 prospects in this draft, they have a 1st plus four 2nd rounders in this draft, and then they have two 1sts in both 2024 and 2025. They have about $42M in cap space for 2023/24.

The Ducks have also built a nice little war chest of futures. Another top 10 prospect pool. They don't have surplus 1sts, but we knew that they were going to land a top 3 prospect pre-lottery and they do have six 2nds and 6 3rds over the next 3 drafts. Not the glut of picks and prospects that Arizona/Chicago have, but Zegras/Mctavish already in the NHL bridge that gap a bit. $39M in cap space for 2023/24.

I think that any long-term plan already had to account for at least one of these teams (and likely two) turning into a genuine powerhouse through the late 2020s. Bedard going to Chicago obviously moves the needle for them, but the possibility of them being that team was already pretty damn high. The lottery doesn't change my long-term planning, because I was already banking on Chicago returning to 'top 5' status when they pulled out of their rebuild.

I do not think Anaheim would do this but would you offer all 3 of our firsts plus Bolduc for #2 overall? Would that even be enticing at all to Anaheim?

 

[Brian39]

You guys should take a peep at CapFriendly. After this coming season, the Blackhawks will only have Connor Bedard, Seth Jones, Connor Murphy, and their prospects like Korchinski and Soderblom under contract.

They can fix this thing really, really fast if they so choose.

I talked about it elsewhere, but that kind of cap space is a double edged sword. Flexibility is great, but not having anyone under contract means that you do have to actually acquire an NHL-caliber supporting cast. They have an opportunity to be patient and slowly build a medium-to-long term supporting cast with all that cap space. However, it is very easy to invest in the wrong guys and find yourself with bad contracts when you are filling holes from outside the organization.

Edmonton committed tons of medium-and-long term cap to the wrong players after drafting McDavid and trying to build around him.

Fixing it fast isn't going to happen without allocating significant cap dollars into years where their top 5 prospects are on their 2nd contracts. Personally, I'm hoping that they try to fix it fast and make some of the same mistakes Edmonton did.

 

[Xerloris]

Colorado and Dallas will be good for awhile with their elite cores. Chicago and Arizona SHOULD become very, very scary teams over the next few years, and Minnesota also has a damn good prospect pool that will offset a potential down year next season.

I'm not convinced Colorado is all that scary. They're one injury away from a joke. Add to that no Landeskog and no goaltending, it's rough.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I'm not convinced Colorado is all that scary. They're one injury away from a joke. Add to that no Landeskog and no goaltending, it's rough.

They’ll also finally be able to use Landeskog’s cap space now that he’s for sure on LTIR and fill holes they thought they couldn’t after Nate’s extension. Even if they aren’t legit Cup contenders, having MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar, and Bryam will give them enough talent to get them into the playoffs every year.

 

[Thallis]

You guys should take a peep at CapFriendly. After this coming season, the Blackhawks will only have Connor Bedard, Seth Jones, Connor Murphy, and their prospects like Korchinski and Soderblom under contract.

They can fix this thing really, really fast if they so choose.

You can't get around the time needed for talent to develop and the need for getting surplus value from contracts. They'll get a ton from Bedard for a few years, but free agency is not the place to search for value. I don't think they're in trouble by any means, but trying to rush the rebuild now would be probably the worst thing they could do.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I'm not convinced Colorado is all that scary. They're one injury away from a joke. Add to that no Landeskog and no goaltending, it's rough.

And Nichushkin. And a 2C. Avs are hobbled, but Sakic and his GM will fix it.

 

[oPlaiD]

I think all these years of flat salary cap has further pushed parity across the league. Teams like Colorado and Edmonton and Tampa don't have perfect records in managing their teams, but I think an increasing salary cap gave more leeway to teams like the Blackhawks at the start of the last decade to maintain depth around the high paid superstars.

It's much harder to keep pieces around MacKinnon and his ballooned salary number when it's taking up the same % of cap year after year, where with say Patrick Kane that % number was decreasing.

So right now, I don't think it's out of the question for teams to make big swings in the standings since the bar to make the playoffs and succeed in them isn't as high as it often is. I agree that signing free agents to surround Bedard is likely not a great long term play, but I also feel like doing that while Bedard's cap hit is so low could produce decent results for them right away.

 

[Brian39]

I do not think Anaheim would do this but would you offer all 3 of our firsts plus Bolduc for #2 overall? Would that even be enticing at all to Anaheim?

I don't think that I would.

In a vacuum, I don't hate the offer and without factoring the rest of our roster I think it is justifiable to drop that kind of asset cost on cementing 8 years of Thomas/Fantilli down the middle. However, that doesn't fix the D and fixing the D becomes a hell of a lot harder if we condense 4 of our best 7 futures assets into 1 player.

If we make that trade, I'm not sure what currency would be left to fix the D problem. I'm not trading the 2024 or 2025 1sts this summer. I'm just not confident enough about the roster to give up a pick that could wind up being pretty damn good. I really, really don't want to move Snuggy, so that leaves leaves us with just Dean and Neighbours. I don't think those get you a medium-term solution for the D.

I think that trade could wind up locking us into a D group we don't like for most/all of Fantilli's ELC, which is a huge portion of the value you want to pick up by trading a boatload for a #2 overall pick.

Now, a deal for Fantilli that also includes a swap of Krug and Fowler? Count me in.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah, Chicago is certainly in better shape with Bedard and should be a contender at some point with him. Players will certainly view it as a destination being a major market with a potential generational talent. The tough part, they may not be an immediate destination type team and throwing money around early can be risky.

I have no doubt that they'll be rising to the top of the Central in the nearish future, but we've also seen Edmonton flounder around with McDavid and Draisaitl, so Chicago still has a lot of work to do to build a team around him.

 

[Carolina Blues]

Does Chicago winning the Bedard sweepstakes change anyone's evaluation of the off-season and the next couple years after that? I think now I'm more inclined to keep all 3 assets at the draft than try and work some short term magic to appease ownership and fans immediate wants.. Suck hard again next year, hopefully finish in that 4-8 range, perhaps accumulate another 1st and take advantage of another really deep class. If Army shoots his wad too early, there's more than a possibility of us being in the shadow of the Hawks for a decade plus and experiencing the Kane, Towes, Keith, Price era all over again.

I'm not convinced that we'll be worse next year than this year to climb into the 4-8 spots... we won't be very good but I don't see much more than sideways.

 

[Brian39]

I think all these years of flat salary cap has further pushed parity across the league. Teams like Colorado and Edmonton and Tampa don't have perfect records in managing their teams, but I think an increasing salary cap gave more leeway to teams like the Blackhawks at the start of the last decade to maintain depth around the high paid superstars.

It's much harder to keep pieces around MacKinnon and his ballooned salary number when it's taking up the same % of cap year after year, where with say Patrick Kane that % number was decreasing.

So right now, I don't think it's out of the question for teams to make big swings in the standings since the bar to make the playoffs and succeed in them isn't as high as it often is. I agree that signing free agents to surround Bedard is likely not a great long term play, but I also feel like doing that while Bedard's cap hit is so low could produce decent results for them right away.

Putting a max term on contracts in 2013 was the biggest driver of parity IMO. However, we didn't get to start seeing that parity right away because teams with existing long term deals still got the benefit of those contracts for years. From 2010-2017, Boston was the only team to win a Cup without at least one player on a 10+ year contract designed to bring down the salary cap. It was a huge advantage, especially since after 2013 no other teams could do the same and had to pay their stars a higher AAV.

By 2020, pretty much all the players on these deals had declined enough that they were no longer value contracts and every team was essentially operating under the same rules. Instead of AAVs being stagnant while term got longer and longer, we saw AAVs steadily rise. Then the flat cap magnified the importance of cap management and here we are today.

 

[Brian39]

I'm not convinced Colorado is all that scary. They're one injury away from a joke. Add to that no Landeskog and no goaltending, it's rough.

I'm not a big Georgiev fan, but he had a .918 in the regular season and a .914 in the playoffs. He's not a top 5 goalie, but it's not true that they have no goaltending.

I have a hard time calling them 1 injury away from being a joke. They did just win the division with 109 points even though Makar missed 22 games, MacKinnon missed 11 games, Lehkonen missed 18 games, Nichuskin missed 29 games, Byram missed 40 games, and Landy missed the entire season.

Landy will miss another season, but unlike this year they will put him on LTIR and free up $7M in cap space. If the Nichuskin situation is something that prevents him from playing next year, then it probably means that his contract is terminated. He's worth the cap hit, but if they lose him that is another $6.125M of cap space.

The core of MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen, Lehkonen, Toews, Girard, Manson, and Georgiev with $27M of cap space to address secondary scoring is still a pretty damn formidable group. The cap took its cuts and I don't know if they will ever be as good as that incredible 2022 team. But they should still be a pretty scary team.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

“We’ve done a ‘deep dive’ into what happened this year, and that’s going to stay behind closed doors, but I really don’t see that happening two years in a row.”

-army on blues season

 

[BlueDream]

“We’ve done a ‘deep dive’ into what happened this year, and that’s going to stay behind closed doors, but I really don’t see that happening two years in a row.”

-army on blues season

Translation:

“We figured out MacTavish is a turd and it was all his fault. Glad he’s gone now.”

 

[Renard]

Chicago's good forune, if that is what it was, doesn't mean that we should just hand them the Stanley Cut for the next decade. Many first overall players have failed to make it in the NHL. Some get injured in off season horse play.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

Chicago's good forune, if that is what it was, doesn't mean that we should just hand them the Stanley Cut for the next decade. Many first overall players have failed to make it in the NHL. Some get injured in off season horse play.

Yeah, but what kind of sad-sack no luck franchise would that ever happen to??… Oh wait…

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Chicago's good forune, if that is what it was, doesn't mean that we should just hand them the Stanley Cut for the next decade. Many first overall players have failed to make it in the NHL. Some get injured in off season horse play.

It does underscore that Armstrong assembled a Cup winning roster while not really getting any primo draft picks. Some good trades, developing good not star players and smart drafting. People make forecasts about needing to tank for the top couple picks, and it would be nice to get guys like that, but he has already demonstrated that you can acquire those players later in their careers (like Bouwmeester or Schenn) and put a complete team on the ice. Can he do it again? It would be pretty amazing to see.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

It does underscore that Armstrong assembled a Cup winning roster while not really getting any primo draft picks. Some good trades, developing good not star players and smart drafting. People make forecasts about needing to tank for the top couple picks, and it would be nice to get guys like that, but he has already demonstrated that you can acquire those players later in their careers (like Bouwmeester or Schenn) and put a complete team on the ice. Can he do it again? It would be pretty amazing to see.

Generally I’d agree, with one major exception. Petro was a primo pick. I know we drafted him 11 years before we won the cup, but he was the best player on this team for a decade.

 

[Celtic Note]

It does underscore that Armstrong assembled a Cup winning roster while not really getting any primo draft picks. Some good trades, developing good not star players and smart drafting. People make forecasts about needing to tank for the top couple picks, and it would be nice to get guys like that, but he has already demonstrated that you can acquire those players later in their careers (like Bouwmeester or Schenn) and put a complete team on the ice. Can he do it again? It would be pretty amazing to see.

On of the hardest pieces for any club to obtain was drafted in the top 5. Without that piece, I don’t think we win the Cup, especially since there were considerations for that player winning the Conn Smyth.