2022-2023 Around The League
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These things are always more apparent in hindsight for obvious reasons. And again, I'm not saying the Avs are absolutely going through it today... just that it absolutely will happen. Age and contracts absolutely impact teams as they go through windows, to think that it won't happen here is absurd. Whether it is this year or 3 years or 5 years, it is coming. At some point the cumulative impacts will eventually cause the contention window to end.
Now saying that.... here is what has happened since the Cup win. Kadri and Burkie both left due to contractual reasons. The Avs lost two 2nd line players in an offseason just due to that. On the aging side, Manson has clearly continued his age regression. With the Avs locked into him, his contract will be of poor value relatively soon. EJ has continued to regress, but thankfully that'll be off the books soon. None of the older guys have really hit that yet. Which is a good thing, and hopefully it doesn't happen this season... it is a matter of time though. Landy has had injuries pile up and we don't know how he's going to look over 30 yet. The others players towards the end of their prime are not regressing at this point. There have been aging and contractual impact already to this team... where that ultimately lands is still a question.
One player who is rather concerning at the moment is Girard. As a smaller player who has gone through injuries, it isn't super unusual to see early aging (the whole Richards thing with LA is one of those). He's not old by any stretch, but he has hit ages where it isn't super unusual to have already peaked. There are many defensemen that peak at 21-23 before falling off... if that is happening with Girard, that is a problem. We don't and won't know that for a bit, but his on ice play has certainly regressed over the past 2 seasons. The longer this trend and level of play holds, the more concerning it is. Now with his contract, the Avs are in a pretty solid spot that if he just settles here, the contract is fine value. Not a bargain would have been if he kept up his 2021 play in the shortened season.. but still okay value. If he regresses to a 5 puck mover sort... then you not only have trade value issues, you have lineup value issues. I don't think that will happen, but his play is keeping that idea on the table.
Out of all of this, the future that is certainly coming at some point should be pointing to the idea that the Avs need to be pushing hard this year and the next couple to win another Cup. Odds are pretty high that 3-4-5+ years down the road the cumulative impacts are going to slam the contention window shut.
While the Avs have made some baffling decisions with who they entrusted to take a bigger role (Jost, Kerfoot, perhaps Newhook) and drafting the one thing they've gotten right almost every time was who to commit the big contracts to.
Even though lots hate on EJ and JTC due to cap hit they both were very positive contributors on and off ice.
Girard was the first of the new crop of guys they went for a big commitment with so I'm confident G will continue to get better.
Manson is a bit odd and maybe the good vibes from winning the cup got in the way of good cap management but he seems like a logical EJ successor who's cheaper on the cap.
ANewHope
Nuggets|Avs|Broncos
- May 26, 2011
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Yeah and I agree and don’t dispute that. I don’t think anybody’s ever said windows last forever. I just think the idea of windows is overrated and pushes opinion above reality and what actually happens. I think the only thing I’ve ever said was it’s not concrete when exactly that season can be. It could happen sooner than a lot of people think or you could see something happen that changes the trajectory of the team.
That was previous conversations tho. I was specifically talking about the season after the Kings won the cup. Similar to this season for the Avs. Aging didn’t prevent them from winning just like it won’t for the Avs. Avs could go all in at the deadline again and if we get healthy be in a good spot.
Yep, I'm really concerned about Sammy going forward. You could tell he was missing more than a step all of last season. They'll never tell us but he was playing hurt, and this season we've at least seen a little more jump in his stride that we've seen previously. However, it's still not quite to the level he was at his first season in Colorado--dude could fly through the neutral zone, not quite Cale-fast but it was up there.
Another example of a player aging rather quickly is Tyson Barrie. He was a legit #3 defenseman who often played even higher than that on a team that was constantly missing pieces, and he was always getting saddled with outright terrible defensive partners, and yet he thrived. But the moment he hit 28-29 or so he regressed badly and now seems more like a bottom pairing power play specialist. It didn't help that TB wasn't a phenomenal skater to begin with.
That said, you can throw him into any trade proposal you want but it's not like he's going to snag some mythical unicorn 2C in return. Those types of defensemen are simply not valued around the league. I'm willing to bet more GMs are lining up for Tyler f***ing Myers and his horrid contract than they would be for Sammy. That and you have to start getting a little concerned about defensive depth if he gets dealt. We've already seen that Byram, awesome as he is, cannot be relied upon to play a lot of regular season games.
Another example of a player aging rather quickly is Tyson Barrie. He was a legit #3 defenseman who often played even higher than that on a team that was constantly missing pieces, and he was always getting saddled with outright terrible defensive partners, and yet he thrived. But the moment he hit 28-29 or so he regressed badly and now seems more like a bottom pairing power play specialist. It didn't help that TB wasn't a phenomenal skater to begin with.
That said, you can throw him into any trade proposal you want but it's not like he's going to snag some mythical unicorn 2C in return. Those types of defensemen are simply not valued around the league. I'm willing to bet more GMs are lining up for Tyler f***ing Myers and his horrid contract than they would be for Sammy. That and you have to start getting a little concerned about defensive depth if he gets dealt. We've already seen that Byram, awesome as he is, cannot be relied upon to play a lot of regular season games.
I simply disagree that aging didn't have a role in the Kings falling off. I think it had a major role. Richards was a major part of that build and aged out of being even useful. The you have the ancillary pieces we've gone on about too. I'd also say the 2014 Kings caught a little lightning in a bottle and was a worse team already compared to the previous 2 season... it just completely caught up after.
I'm glad that, for once, a pages-long circuitous argument over nitpicky shit doesn't involve me. 
I'm glad that, for once, a pages-long circuitous argument over nitpicky shit doesn't involve me.
Credit: @UnkleKraker
ANewHope
Nuggets|Avs|Broncos
- May 26, 2011
- 2,409
- 953
Yeah we probably need to end this haha
I think the Kings still had most of there core producing in there primes and aging didn’t end them that specific season. That they got similar production outside of Richards(Voynov too but that’s not age) in both regular seasons with a few differences. You don’t obviously.
- Apr 25, 2006
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The Vegas series is clearly the breaking point. He got blamed for that loss and was never the same explosive player after that. I think it's a mental/confidence issue but injuries didn't help.
He seems to be stuck between a rock and a hard place. Play scared and don't get hurt; play not scared and get hurt.
Chiarelli
Registered User
- Jan 27, 2019
- 5,093
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I think G is going to be fine. He’s not built to defend in his own end for any length of time, never has been, never will be. Get back some depth in the lineup and start playing with more possession/speed/transition and he will be tasked with less heavy lifting defensively. He can still skate and pass and that’s always been his game. Looks like he’s playing to not get hurt which I honestly don’t blame him.
I don't think mentality has anything to do with it. He just got beat the F up.
He's been fine since coming back, I know people want to blame him for that one goal the other night but that was squarely on MacKinnon puck-watching and not covering the guy (Scheifele I think) right next to him.
To me his skating is the most worrisome part. It has taken a very noticeable step back. I think as he has bulked up to help against injuries, he has lost a step and suddenly he can't avoid hits anymore... which is just leading to more injuries. The data doesn't seem to support that just through numbers, but it seems he is taking a lot more big hits than he used to.
SaltySkywalker
Bushes of Love
I'm not usually a grammar police, but I've seen you misspell "their", "we're" and "You're" like 10 times in the last two pages and had to comment. YOU'RE literally ignoring the red squigglys when you type those words!!
Avs need to bring in Cliff Ronning as a consultant. He was a little dude who had a very long and successful career who credited his ability to roll off checks. Someone needs to teach Sammy and Cale how to do that.
I don't think Cale really takes that many hits... I just really don't recall many. Now Byram... there is a guy who could really learn a thing or two about avoiding hits. Not really his game, but I don't see how he survives 3-4 a night for his career. Not with his frame and concussion issues.
Avsfan1921
Registered User
- Oct 5, 2019
- 2,299
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Girards been fine this season and his play gets inexplicably overblown imo. I get that he’s not some peoples cup of tea so to speak, but he’s been no less steady in his own end than Makar or Toews this year. They’ve all had bad moments, as do all defencemen.
I do agree that he has taken a step back offensively however. He seems to have lost some confidence with the puck and plays it safer than he used to. Maybe that has a bit to do with hench’s bulking up theory, I don’t know, but he definitely doesn’t try much creatively in the o-zone anymore and hasn’t for a very long time.
As for value, I do believe he holds quite a bit. We likely should move on and try to address the 2c position and even if he alone doesn’t have that kind of value, he certainly is close.
Im hoping that Bednar switches to trying a rantanen at 2c in the not too distant future but I’m not gonna hold my breath for it… outside of that, Girard and pick/prospect is the only real chance of filling that void.
I do agree that he has taken a step back offensively however. He seems to have lost some confidence with the puck and plays it safer than he used to. Maybe that has a bit to do with hench’s bulking up theory, I don’t know, but he definitely doesn’t try much creatively in the o-zone anymore and hasn’t for a very long time.
As for value, I do believe he holds quite a bit. We likely should move on and try to address the 2c position and even if he alone doesn’t have that kind of value, he certainly is close.
Im hoping that Bednar switches to trying a rantanen at 2c in the not too distant future but I’m not gonna hold my breath for it… outside of that, Girard and pick/prospect is the only real chance of filling that void.
If ALEX FORMENTON doesn't sign by 5pm today, he's ineligible to play this year.
Turns out there may be a reason why teams are not clamoring to acquire him.
EDIT: Sheeeeeeeeiiiiiiitttt
Turns out there may be a reason why teams are not clamoring to acquire him.
EDIT: Sheeeeeeeeiiiiiiitttt
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- Apr 25, 2006
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Friedman and (I think) Seravalli both report that he may be facing disciplinary action for possible involvement in the Team Canada 2018 sexual assault case.
- Jan 18, 2016
- 35,513
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Ah, goddammit, sorry, not Batherson. I better fix that.
How has he been fine? His xGF% is 44% for the year and he's pacing for 23 points as a small offensive d-man. All while making 5 million/year. And no, it's not JJ's fault he's playing terrible this year.
Also, I gotta be honest, I didn't figure the Sens would be THIS bad, but I also didn't really buy the hype. Debrincat is a really good player but he's not some elite gamebreaker, just adding him and an aging Claude Giroux to the forward corps was not going to suddenly catapult them into contender status. Especially since they did next to nothing to bolster the defense and goaltending-by-committee.
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