Metallo
NWOBHM forever \m/
Exactly, annointing them as a contender at the first hint of success and brushing aside any potential growing pain is odd.
2022-2023 Around The League
- Thread starter Bill Peckerskull
- Start date
-
Work is still on-going to rebuild the site styling and features. Please report any issues you may experience so we can look into it. Click Here for Updates
- Status
You’re saying MOSTLY luck. I’m saying that’s not the case. Good drafting teams calculate the risks properly. When one team keeps hitting in lower rounds as opposed to a lot of teams that don’t, that’s not “mostly” luck. Again if it was just luck or mostly luck, the Bolts wouldn’t keep finding these players. It’d be spread out all over the place.
Has anyone really called them contenders yet? I certainly wouldn’t with that much uncertainty in goal.
What they are for sure is a very well put together roster with a good coach.
Hawks went from a ~.500 team on 07-08 to conference finals to Cup win in consecutive years.
Penguins when from worst team in the league to playoffs to Cup finals loss to Cup in consecutive years.
Boston went from bad team to playoffs to very disappointing 2nd round loss where they were contenders/favorites then 2nd round loss then Cup.
Tampa went from .500 team to playoffs to finals loss in consecutive years.
Carolina went from a bunch of .500 teams to conference finals in their first year in the playoffs since 2009.
You can contend very quickly in the NHL. That doesn't mean teams always win the Cup early... many never do. But it would not at all be surprising if they won a couple rounds. If they get the right pieces, I could see them in the Finals. That's a fantastic team. They are not my favorite out of the East right now, but they are top 3 in that conference.
One mistake I think teams consistently make is not pushing hard enough, early enough. If you look at the Hawks, Kings, and Penguins, they pushed early and won with young cores. This extended their contention windows. If you don't push early, you can with with a core that is 26-27-28 and that makes it tough to repeat. Not only because of age, but UFA contracts start hitting the books and the extreme early value of players starts to go away and eat at depth.
Penguins when from worst team in the league to playoffs to Cup finals loss to Cup in consecutive years.
Boston went from bad team to playoffs to very disappointing 2nd round loss where they were contenders/favorites then 2nd round loss then Cup.
Tampa went from .500 team to playoffs to finals loss in consecutive years.
Carolina went from a bunch of .500 teams to conference finals in their first year in the playoffs since 2009.
You can contend very quickly in the NHL. That doesn't mean teams always win the Cup early... many never do. But it would not at all be surprising if they won a couple rounds. If they get the right pieces, I could see them in the Finals. That's a fantastic team. They are not my favorite out of the East right now, but they are top 3 in that conference.
One mistake I think teams consistently make is not pushing hard enough, early enough. If you look at the Hawks, Kings, and Penguins, they pushed early and won with young cores. This extended their contention windows. If you don't push early, you can with with a core that is 26-27-28 and that makes it tough to repeat. Not only because of age, but UFA contracts start hitting the books and the extreme early value of players starts to go away and eat at depth.
UnkleKraker
Registered User
Could there be a better hockey name for a Red Wings prospect?
Vaslof
Registered User
- Feb 1, 2017
- 5,956
- 4,927
Or they got lucky. Luck should average out in the long term, but you're probably thinking of like the last 5 drafts, which is a very very small sample size. Anyway I don't think we are that far apart in our opinions. We probably agree that you need both to succeed.
Bill Peckerskull
Fargin' Icehole
- Jan 18, 2016
- 35,513
- 26,860
I don’t see it at all. The Panthers D core was a way bigger weakness than the Devils is currently. Not quite as good a forward core, but a far far more well rounded squad.
- Jan 18, 2016
- 35,513
- 26,860
Also regarding the Devils, the Avs went from the worst team in like 40 years to winning a playoff series in 2 years. I don’t see whats so crazy about believing the Devils are finally a very good team.
The opposite is true. The top of the draft is where most of the luck plays. And that luck is all about whether your guy falls to your spot or not.
The deeper into a draft you go, the less luck plays a factor and the more true scouting shines.
I'd say the Devils have a pretty solid top 4... not elite, but somewhere in the 10-15 range league wide. Then they have a top 4 guy in Severson as their 5.
- Jan 18, 2016
- 35,513
- 26,860
Yeah I don’t think it’s elite or anything but I think it’s pretty good. Hamilton-Siegenthaler while not #1’s are very good at what they do and compliment each other perfectly. And Marino and Severson are nice top 4 guys as well. It’s not perfect but I think there’s a good mix of skill sets back there and the still have Nemec and Hughes to add to Dougie, Siegenthaler, and Marino over the next couple seasons.
I'd say Hamilton is a 1. He has to stay healthy, but when he is, he's a solid 1. And Graves has shown he's a legit top 4 guy. He got some hate here, but he's clearly proven himself. Their pairings currently are:
Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Graves-Marino
Smith/Bahl-Severson
When Hughes and Nemec are ready to step in, they likely put Hughes with Marino and Nemec with Graves. Which if they hit the ground running, might be a top 5 most talented top to bottom (not best just raw talent). Hughes and Nemec both have legit high end 1 upside.
If New Jersey is really rolling, I could see them holding on to Severson as a self rental to help break in Hughes during the playoffs. When Palat returns, their forward group looks incredibly good too. Goaltending is the big issue and they gotta get that fixed... maybe Vanecek is that guy, I have my doubts, but possible.
Bill Peckerskull
Fargin' Icehole
UnkleKraker
Registered User
- Aug 25, 2006
- 9,983
- 8,408
I like the Devils because they play a lot like the Avs. Fast, forecheck, D gets involved to transition to offense...I agree that if they can fix their problem in net they could be a big problem in the POs for most teams.
Been up the last few years compared 5-6-7 years ago, but this is roughly similar to last season covid adjusted (lower with covid)
NHL injury frequency by game (2000/01 to 2023/24)
Notes There will be inconsistency between my numbers and “official” team man-games lost (MGL) figures due to teams' d...
nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com
- Apr 25, 2006
- 53,467
- 59,323
SaltySkywalker
Bushes of Love
Regarding the drafting talk: You've got to be good, to be lucky. I think that is the best way to describe it. Clearly there's some modicum of luck, but in order to capitalize on your chances, you've got to put yourself in the best possible spots and clearly some teams scouting and drafting departments are better than others at doing that.
The Kingslayer
Registered User
I wish people knew the work and dedication put in by scouting staffs and how lists are actually put together. You can state luck in that a player doesn't get hurt or go off the rails hitting the sauce... but the being able to find which skill sets work (maybe more importantly which ones don't), when to select players, when you can delay selecting a player because you know only a few are in on that player, background checks, conversations with staffs, parents, billets, etc, etc. It is a pretty complex job that is incredibly difficult. To pass that off as luck is pretty insulting to a whole profession. Obviously nobody will be perfect and you need somethings to click... but the guys who are great at it, are great at if for a reason.
The Kingslayer
Registered User
Another great ex Oiler I met several times in Edmonton. Best one was at a Cowboys ball hockey tournie when his stack team of Edmonton Ice players showed up to try to win it all. We managed to get the playoff game to a tie where we beat them in a drink off lol. George made the other guys drink which was a little dissapointing because I wanted to see the big fella chug some Molson. I have the video somewhere at my parents house.
I hope he wears 21 in Detroit.
- Jan 18, 2016
- 35,513
- 26,860
Again not really. If it was mostly luck than what’s the point of spending money on an entire scouting network?
- Status
