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2022-2023 Around The League

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Pokecheque said:
Sixth round pick. Anyone who keeps saying getting good players in lower rounds of the draft is nothing but pure luck obviously pays no attention to how Tampa does it.
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It's obviously not pure luck. There's a reason certain teams excel at it more than others. Why so much money gets spent in that area.

Your crazy if you don't think luck plays a significant factor. Ignore everything that has to do with the actual hockey aspect of it. Your talking about projecting kids. 18 year olds. How they'll react to money/fame, what kind of lifestyle choices they'll make and how that will impact there development. What kind of work ethic/drive they'll have.

I don't know what the %'s would be but you need both to be successful drafting.
 
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Pierce Hawthorne said:
Yeah that was always a laughable take. What was most shocking was how many people actually believed it...


Eye opening to the posters here for sure.
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What's eye opening is the people who don't think luck is involved. Imagine thinking you can predict 18 year old kids and how they'll react to the world. Especially given the stories we have from NHL prospects/NHL players/people who played high level hockey etc. If NHL scouts have figured that out .. they should share that recipe with the rest of the world.

Any take that thinks it's all skill or all luck is crazy IMO.
 
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Pokecheque said:
Sixth round pick. Anyone who keeps saying getting good players in lower rounds of the draft is nothing but pure luck obviously pays no attention to how Tampa does it.
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If they knew they would have picked him higher. All their other picks that draft seem like busts. It's not pure luck, just mostly luck.
 
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ANewHope said:
What's eye opening is the people who don't think luck is involved. Imagine thinking you can predict 18 year old kids and how they'll react to the world. Especially given the stories we have from NHL prospects/NHL players/people who played high level hockey etc. If NHL scouts have figured that out .. they should share that recipe with the rest of the world.

Any take that thinks it's all skill or all luck is crazy IMO.
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Good thing not a single person said this I guess :facepalm:
 
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Vaslof said:
If they knew they would have picked him higher. All their other picks that draft seem like busts. It's not pure luck, just mostly luck.
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I know the full story of how Walker and Perbix got drafted. They were really high on Tampa’s list (both were in their top 75… Perbix was top 50), but Tampa took some chance knowing how they were scouted. Guttman too, be he’s a bit different not being a Minny high school kid.
 
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ANewHope said:
I mean there was absolutely people who suggested it was mostly skill or atleast tried to downplay the luck element of it. So not sure why your facepalming.
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Wow, didn't take long for those goal posts to move.

From "What's eye opening is people who don't think luck is involved" to "It was mostly skill or downplay the luck element of it"


Where do the goal posts move next!!
 
Pierce Hawthorne said:
Wow, didn't take long for those goal posts to move.

From "What's eye opening is people who don't think luck is involved" to "It was mostly skill or downplay the luck element of it"


Where do the goal posts move next!!
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I mean I thought I implied a good amount of luck was involved. Just like I thought I implied a decent amount of skill was involved. Literally like 2 posts above that I said I don't know what the %'s would be but you need both so figured that was assumed.

The entire discussion seems to be luck vs skill .. and I think anybody who stands heavily on one side is crazy.
 
ANewHope said:
I mean I thought I implied a good amount of luck was involved. Just like I thought I implied a decent amount of skill was involved. Literally like 2 posts above that I said I don't know what the %'s would be but you need both so figured that was assumed.

The entire discussion seems to be luck vs skill .. and I think anybody who stands heavily on one side is crazy.
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My original comments didn't necessarily have anything to do with you... Absolutely without question we have posters on this board who think drafting is entirely luck based, that conversation last week or whenever it was clearly showed that.

I dont think its entirely skill based but it is far closer to that, then it is to be entirely luck. Its actually probably like an 80/20 split and most of the luck actually comes from the top of the draft and whether "your guy" fall to you or not.
 
Pierce Hawthorne said:
My original comments didn't necessarily have anything to do with you... Absolutely without question we have posters on this board who think drafting is entirely luck based, that conversation last week or whenever it was clearly showed that.

I dont think its entirely skill based but it is far closer to that, then it is to be entirely luck. Its actually probably like an 80/20 split and most of the luck actually comes from the top of the draft and whether "your guy" fall to you or not.
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Yeah admittedly I didn't follow the entire discussion but it seemed like it was all about picking a side and leaning on that side heavily. I think the rational side is being in the middle.

I think even 80/20 is waaay too much. Something as dumb as projecting how an 18 year old will deal with nightlife has a big impact. Mental health, relationships, fame/money etc. Tampa will go 1/6 or 2/6 depending how you view Foote in the '17 draft and that's a big success. Hitting on a small % is a major win so I'm not sure how you can act like luck doesn't play a big factor when hitting on like 4/25 is a big success. Just like teams spend millions of dollars/people spend an insane amount of time scouting and you have certain teams who stand out over long periods so it clearly can't all be luck.
 
I don't think scouting is entirely skill, nor luck.

I honestly think organizational scouting system is a huge factor. Yzerman didn't take the Lightning's scouting department when he went to Detroit, but it's no coincidence that they started drafting gems again the moment he took over.

No doubt there are some top tier scouts that are simply better at finding talent than others, but they can only be at one place at a time, and video still doesn't get close to replacing watching a player live.
 
It's kind of strange that people focus on being successful only at top 10 picks. And that might be fair. But isn't it strange how so many of those picks spend little/no time at the Avs AHL affiliate?

I'm obviously alluding development aspect to this discussion.

If Rantanen is your only prospect to develop and he's a top 10 pick in a strong draft, when are people going to question whether development is mostly to blame?
 
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Vaslof said:
If they knew they would have picked him higher. All their other picks that draft seem like busts. It's not pure luck, just mostly luck.
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Again, not true. Law of averages says most of any team’s draft class will not make it to the NHL. In fact if you get two viable NHLers out of a possible seven total picks, you’re doing really good.

Is some luck involved? Sure. But good drafting teams know how to cut down on that random happenstance. If it was all or even mostly luck then there wouldn’t be a few teams in the league who consistently find these players in lower rounds, and there wouldn’t be teams (like Colorado) who never do.
 
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