Rumor: 2022-2022 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part 14: Sakic goes back to bed

[John Mandalorian]

Looking at the off-season, would Horvat be a legitimate target?

Colorado came close to trading for Horvat before moving Barrie for Kadri. I'd guess that there's probably still interest in him to fill the 2C spot, and the Avs do often get their guys even if they have to wait a while.

There were also reports this season of the Vancouver room being divided, with half the team behind Miller and the other half behind Horvat. With both UFA's in 2023 it seems like they'll have to make a decision on who to extend. Miller seems like the better player and fit so seems more natural that they'd choose him.

The price to acquire Horvat is probably going to be influenced at least in part by his willingness to extend with the team that acquires him. Avs would be in a very good position to extend him that given that: A) MacKinnon's extension most likely gets put in place this off-season giving them cost certainty going forward, and B) with $27m+ in capspace the Avs would have the cap flexibility to work around a Horvat 2023 extension.

Colorado are obviously pretty short on assets, but maybe a trade could be constructed around some combination of the 2023 1st, 2024 1st, Behrens, and/or Olausson. If Byram returns and Manson re-signs maybe moving Girard and using the return pieces in a Horvat trade would work.

Sidenote: If it wasn't clear already I'm leaning more towards Newhook looking like a winger than a center, hence the Horvat/2C suggestion, but whatever the case I'd prefer if replies centered around Horvat as a target rather than Newhook's suitability as a 2C (though I guess that will inevitably get discussed too). Anyways, curious to hear some thoughts on Horvat.

If Horvat is the target and Newhook is no longer seen as a future C, Newhook should be on the table. I'm hoping that the Avs can find their own Vincent Trocheck. I'm hoping they can find another Toews but at C.

 

[Richard88]

Sakic needs to wake back up and resign Kuemper. Have one less UFA to worry about. For what it cost to get him and how he has played, it should be a no brainer

It's also a no-brainer for Kuemper to wait until after the playoffs before signing. If he wins a cup he'll earn a lot more than if he signs now.

 

[Misko]

Looking at the off-season, would Horvat be a legitimate target?

Colorado came close to trading for Horvat before moving Barrie for Kadri. I'd guess that there's probably still interest in him to fill the 2C spot, and the Avs do often get their guys even if they have to wait a while.

There were also reports this season of the Vancouver room being divided, with half the team behind Miller and the other half behind Horvat. With both UFA's in 2023 it seems like they'll have to make a decision on who to extend. Miller seems like the better player and fit so seems more natural that they'd choose him.

The price to acquire Horvat is probably going to be influenced at least in part by his willingness to extend with the team that acquires him. Avs would be in a very good position to extend him that given that: A) MacKinnon's extension most likely gets put in place this off-season giving them cost certainty going forward, and B) with $27m+ in capspace the Avs would have the cap flexibility to work around a Horvat 2023 extension.

Colorado are obviously pretty short on assets, but maybe a trade could be constructed around some combination of the 2023 1st, 2024 1st, Behrens, and/or Olausson. If Byram returns and Manson re-signs maybe moving Girard and using the return pieces in a Horvat trade would work.

Sidenote: If it wasn't clear already I'm leaning more towards Newhook looking like a winger than a center, hence the Horvat/2C suggestion, but whatever the case I'd prefer if replies centered around Horvat as a target rather than Newhook's suitability as a 2C (though I guess that will inevitably get discussed too). Anyways, curious to hear some thoughts on Horvat.

I think Vancouver is unlikely to move on from Horvat. It feels like almost every Canuck forward has been in trade rumours this season; Miller, Boeser, Garland, Motte, Pearson, but Horvat was consistently the least talked about as available if I recall correctly. He's the captain and I think the organization rates him very highly for his quality of character alone, and probably see him as a long-term fit with the team. He's also beloved by fans and teammates, it'd be hard to see how Vancouver could justify moving on from him.

The rumours of the room being divided between Miller and Horvat were also just that, rumours. Before and after Travis Green was fired, I believe both Horvat and Miller came out and squashed those rumours.

On a side-note, as a Canucks fan (I live in Vancouver, Colorado is my #2 team), I do think Vancouver would probably be better off moving on from both Miller and Horvat. I'd love for the Canucks to do a complete face-lift of the team culture, and I think you have to trade both Miller and Horvat to do that and hand over the leadership reigns to the young core like Pettersson and Hughes. Kind of how Minnesota did it by buying out Parise and Suter. I don't think Canucks management and especially the fans though have the stomach or guts to trade and move on from BOTH Miller and Horvat, but I do think one of them is traded before the end of next season, and gun to my head, I think it'd be Miller going out over Horvat. And I wouldn't want the Avs to get Miller because personally, I think he's an overrated top forward prone to defensive breakdowns, bad decision making from being a tempered player, and I do think his "leadership" is as toxic as it is benefitial at times, but that's just my read on him. I was hoping the Canucks would sell him this trade deadline.

 

[dahrougem2]

It's also a no-brainer for Kuemper to wait until after the playoffs before signing. If he wins a cup he'll earn a lot more than if he signs now.

The Avs really are in a brutal spot this summer with goaltending. If Kuemper falters, why go back to him? If he plays extremely well and the Avs win the Cup, he probably is looking for more than what Grubauer got and we know Sakic's hesitation to go that high with Gru.

I wonder if there's any possibility at all that the Avs head into next season with *gasp* Pavel Francouz as their #1 guy.

 

[shadow1]

The Avs really are in a brutal spot this summer with goaltending. If Kuemper falters, why go back to him? If he plays extremely well and the Avs win the Cup, he probably is looking for more than what Grubauer got and we know Sakic's hesitation to go that high with Gru.

I wonder if there's any possibility at all that the Avs head into next season with *gasp* Pavel Francouz as their #1 guy.

If Kuemper leaves, my money is on Sakic turning to a veteran Colorado has been linked to a million times recently...

But there were also Varlamov rumors, so who knows. But I'd expect a veteran #1 of some kind.

 

[Andrew Wiggin]

Landeskog - MacKinnon - xxxx
Nichuskin ----- Rantanen -- xxxx
Lehkonen ----- Newhook -- xxxx

Fill in the X's with forward prospects or Burakovsky-like finds via trade or UFA.

The answer for the first line at RW is obviously Compher . Maybe someone like Rackell would come fairly cheap as a bounce back guy if Landy and MacK do all the heavy lifting? I agree though the lack of 2Cs really available with the assets we have left is paltry and Kadri would want too much I would suppose and Newhook hasn't shown he could handle that. I like Copp too in FA if he makes it that far. I doubt Bergeron ever leaves Boston but I thought that about Chara too.

 

[Misko]

Giving Rantanen a shot at playing center could be pretty interesting. He hasn't looked out of place playing C in Mackinnon's absence during this season.

Colorado simply has to re-sign Kuemper, win or lose, Sakic paid too much to acquire him for only 1 season. The Free Agent Market for goalies is gonna be pretty slim this offseason; I can't see CLB, WSH or TOR letting Merzlikins, Vanecek or Campbell walk. Maybe STL has to move Husso because of being crowded out by Binnington, but I think STL would be dumb to move on from Husso. And Fleury is poo at this point in his career. Francouz is also best used as a backup, forcing a strong backup into a starters role (like Allen in Montreal) isn't a recipe or success especially for a team like the Avs. If the Avs move on from Kuemper, best case scenario is, I guess they trade for Husso? Then Sakic is just dropping more assets for more goalies and it's not like Husso is in a whole different league above Kuemper.

 

[John Mandalorian]

OK, so the Avs are pretty good at identifying defensemen. They've done well drafting them. The pro scouts have also done well here. So here we have Sam Girard, a top 4 D with a great contract on one of the best teams with a stacked defense. We have a similar player in Behrens in the pipeline. And, of course, there's Byram (who might be iffy).

Also, we don't really have enought that we can give up for a 2C.

So what I'd suggest for consideration is the idea of trading Girard for a very good 3C/picks/prospects.

I was actually thinking Girard to NYI for Pageau and a 2nd.

Then we might have something like:

9296
Nichushkin - Pageau - FA W
Newhook - Sturm - Lehkonen
XX - Maltsev - LOC

 

[John Mandalorian]

Giving Rantanen a shot at playing center could be pretty interesting. He hasn't looked out of place playing C in Mackinnon's absence during this season.

Colorado simply has to re-sign Kuemper, win or lose, Sakic paid too much to acquire him for only 1 season. The Free Agent Market for goalies is gonna be pretty slim this offseason; I can't see CLB, WSH or TOR letting Merzlikins, Vanecek or Campbell walk. Maybe STL has to move Husso because of being crowded out by Binnington, but I think STL would be dumb to move on from Husso. And Fleury is poo at this point in his career. Francouz is also best used as a backup, forcing a strong backup into a starters role (like Allen in Montreal) isn't a recipe or success especially for a team like the Avs. If the Avs move on from Kuemper, best case scenario is, I guess they trade for Husso? Then Sakic is just dropping more assets for more goalies and it's not like Husso is in a whole different league above Kuemper.

Great point!

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I wonder if a guy like Pinto from OTT would be a good move and what he would cost.

 

[PAZ]

OK, so the Avs are pretty good at identifying defensemen. They've done well drafting them. The pro scouts have also done well here. So here we have Sam Girard, a top 4 D with a great contract on one of the best teams with a stacked defense. We have a similar player in Behrens in the pipeline. And, of course, there's Byram (who might be iffy).

Also, we don't really have enought that we can give up for a 2C.

So what I'd suggest for consideration is the idea of trading Girard for a very good 3C/picks/prospects.

I was actually thinking Girard to NYI for Pageau and a 2nd.

Then we might have something like:

9296
Nichushkin - Pageau - FA W
Newhook - Sturm - Lehkonen
XX - Maltsev - LOC

The issue with trading Girard this offseason is we still need a replacement. Hopefully Manson can get use to the system and is re-signed, but if not then we're left with Makar + Toews, a questionable Byram, and nothing else. Guess there are potential replacements in free agency if you think Miller or Leddy can bounce back, but if not we'll be seeing Makar + Toews play 27+ minutes a night. If one of them get injured, it's going to be a long season.

I'm not against trading Girard as long we have a replacement lined up beforehand, but if we don't it's going to be a long season. For all his deficiencies, he's still integral to Bednar's system and transitioning the puck up the ice. The other point is that Pageau doesn't really help our anemic offense production from our forwards.

I kind of think Pageau is overkill if we already have Nuke and Lehkonen. Add in Pageau and they'll probably all cost about ~12-14 mil. That's a lot of money for 3 players that can't drive offense (although would be amazing shutdown line).

 

[John Mandalorian]

The issue with trading Girard this offseason is we still need a replacement. Hopefully Manson can get use to the system and is re-signed, but if not then we're left with Makar + Toews, a questionable Byram, and nothing else. Guess there are potential replacements in free agency if you think Miller or Leddy can bounce back, but if not we'll be seeing Makar + Toews play 27+ minutes a night. If one of them get injured, it's going to be a long season.

I'm not against trading Girard as long we have a replacement lined up beforehand, but if we don't it's going to be a long season. For all his deficiencies, he's still integral to Bednar's system and transitioning the puck up the ice. The other point is that Pageau doesn't really help our anemic offense production from our forwards.

I kind of think Pageau is overkill if we already have Nuke and Lehkonen. Add in Pageau and they'll probably all cost about ~12-14 mil. That's a lot of money for 3 players that can't drive offense (although would be amazing shutdown line).

You make fair points about LD next year. Maybe that can be the add with Pageau?

The realization I'm kind of coming to is that people often characterize 2nd line players as ones having first line upside but lacking the consistency. I'm starting to value the consistency of guys like Nichuskin more than what we often see from the more talented (but inconsistent) offensive players. Kadri's having a great year - no doubt about it. But last year he was pretty frustrating. Same with Burakowsky. He's been great at times and non existent at others. I think if you put the other lines (other than 9296) together with a focus on being difficult to play against, I wonder if the offense will also be more consistent and not something where you hope Burakowsky has a hot streak.

I'd love to have a 2nd line that you can put up against a lot of 1st lines around the league. But the cost of having that is likely so enormous it may not be attainable. So, alternatively, you can load up on guys like Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Pageau, etc. Ideally you'd have at least one guy on each line that provides some scoring finish.

 

[Misko]

OK, so the Avs are pretty good at identifying defensemen. They've done well drafting them. The pro scouts have also done well here. So here we have Sam Girard, a top 4 D with a great contract on one of the best teams with a stacked defense. We have a similar player in Behrens in the pipeline. And, of course, there's Byram (who might be iffy).

Also, we don't really have enought that we can give up for a 2C.

So what I'd suggest for consideration is the idea of trading Girard for a very good 3C/picks/prospects.

I was actually thinking Girard to NYI for Pageau and a 2nd.

Then we might have something like:

9296
Nichushkin - Pageau - FA W
Newhook - Sturm - Lehkonen
XX - Maltsev - LOC

Pageau carries a 5M caphit for the next 4 years after this. Assuming the Isles would even want to move on from him, he's not worth acquiring for what he brings to the table at that caphit considering he'd ideally be a 3rd liner, it's where he plays with the Islanders. Any retention would make the assets needed to land him also un-economincal.

Paying an elite (when tuned in) puck-moving defenseman like Girard 5M is well-below the market value for a Top 4 dman like him. Paying a third line C 5M is more than overpaying for that position. Islanders can get away with it because their lineup is very spread out cap wise and only have 2 players who make 7M . Avs have a much more expensive Top 6 + Makar.

 

[PAZ]

You make fair points about LD next year. Maybe that can be the add with Pageau?

The realization I'm kind of coming to is that people often characterize 2nd line players as ones having first line upside but lacking the consistency. I'm starting to value the consistency of guys like Nichuskin more than what we often see from the more talented (but inconsistent) offensive players. Kadri's having a great year - no doubt about it. But last year he was pretty frustrating. Same with Burakowsky. He's been great at times and non existent at others. I think if you put the other lines (other than 9296) together with a focus on being difficult to play against, I wonder if the offense will also be more consistent and not something where you hope Burakowsky has a hot streak.

I'd love to have a 2nd line that you can put up against a lot of 1st lines around the league. But the cost of having that is likely so enormous it may not be attainable. So, alternatively, you can load up on guys like Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Pageau, etc. Ideally you'd have at least one guy on each line that provides some scoring finish.

Consistency is great, but you still need a player that can drive offense and create scoring chances. What you're describing is the current iteration of the Islanders where they have a bunch of consistent players, but very few players that can actually drive offense. Especially with Bednar's system, you need at the very least a mix. If the top line goes cold I don't like our chances of winning the game without any secondary scoring.

As great as Nuke is, he has zero finish and his offensive stats are a bit misleading. He gets most of his points by making the simple plays and being in the right places to get the easy points that come from Kadri/Mack/Rants, etc. There is huge value in that, but you still need a player that can create that prime scoring chance or finish the play.

With Sakic blowing his load at the deadline, it's going to be quite difficult filling in that #2C position without overpaying a free agent. I'm still happy with the trades he made, but unless he gets lucky and a top 6 center wants to sign for a reasonable deal, next season is going to look vastly different IMO.

 

[S E P H]

I kept seeing posts about Avs not trading the 2023 1st round pick around the TDL because it's a deep draft. No, Sakic physically could not trade it because the 2022 first is top ten protected towards the Coyotes, which would have turned into the 2023 first if Avs sucked to the point of finishing in the top ten.

 

[Muffin]

I kept seeing posts about Avs not trading the 2023 1st round pick around the TDL because it's a deep draft. No, Sakic physically could not trade it because the 2022 first is top ten protected towards the Coyotes, which would have turned into the 2023 first if Avs sucked to the point of finishing in the top ten.

He could’ve traded it if he wants. All he had to do was put a clause to say it’s the other 1st.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Consistency is great, but you still need a player that can drive offense and create scoring chances. What you're describing is the current iteration of the Islanders where they have a bunch of consistent players, but very few players that can actually drive offense. Especially with Bednar's system, you need at the very least a mix. If the top line goes cold I don't like our chances of winning the game without any secondary scoring.

As great as Nuke is, he has zero finish and his offensive stats are a bit misleading. He gets most of his points by making the simple plays and being in the right places to get the easy points that come from Kadri/Mack/Rants, etc. There is huge value in that, but you still need a player that can create that prime scoring chance or finish the play.

With Sakic blowing his load at the deadline, it's going to be quite difficult filling in that #2C position without overpaying a free agent. I'm still happy with the trades he made, but unless he gets lucky and a top 6 center wants to sign for a reasonable deal, next season is going to look vastly different IMO.

But when that comes inconsistently is what I'm concerned with. Generally I agree but that finish would need to be more consistent than what we've seen from our non top line players.

 

[PAZ]

But when that comes inconsistently is what I'm concerned with. Generally I agree but that finish would need to be more consistent than what we've seen from our non top line players.

That's generally why they're not top line players, they're going to have their faults. Burakovsky is a luxury, but we either need a lot more depth or a #2C that can put up points (assuming we keep Nuke + Lehk). The league also seems to be shifting in prioritizing depth players like Coleman, Goodrow, Blais, Lehkonen, etc.

I don't think it's doable to fill the lineup with these type of players when they all cost between $3.5-5 mil with term. Much rather focus on a center like Gourde or even Schmaltz over Pageau.

 

[dmac7719]

I kept seeing posts about Avs not trading the 2023 1st round pick around the TDL because it's a deep draft. No, Sakic physically could not trade it because the 2022 first is top ten protected towards the Coyotes, which would have turned into the 2023 first if Avs sucked to the point of finishing in the top ten.

I'm fairly certain Sakic could have traded the '23 pick if something came about that he thought was worth it. He just would have had to waive the conditions on the '22 pick to Arizona so there would be no protections on it.

 

[Freaky Styley]

He could have traded the pick and would have for a piece that wasn't a rental. I.e. I'm sure it would have been on the table for Miller/Horvat.
Also, did I see someone suggest trading Girard for Pageau? Some dark times in here. I too think it might be a good idea to trade Girard for forward help, but shoot a little higher than Pageau please.

 

[John Mandalorian]

He could have traded the pick and would have for a piece that wasn't a rental. I.e. I'm sure it would have been on the table for Miller/Horvat.
Also, did I see someone suggest trading Girard for Pageau? Some dark times in here. I too think it might be a good idea to trade Girard for forward help, but shoot a little higher than Pageau please.

I mentioned a plus in that deal. Do you think Girard is enough for a 2C?

 

[The Abusement Park]

I mentioned a plus in that deal. Do you think Girard is enough for a 2C?

Easily.

 

[shadow1]

Pageau carries a 5M caphit for the next 4 years after this. Assuming the Isles would even want to move on from him, he's not worth acquiring for what he brings to the table at that caphit considering he'd ideally be a 3rd liner, it's where he plays with the Islanders. Any retention would make the assets needed to land him also un-economincal.

Paying an elite (when tuned in) puck-moving defenseman like Girard 5M is well-below the market value for a Top 4 dman like him. Paying a third line C 5M is more than overpaying for that position. Islanders can get away with it because their lineup is very spread out cap wise and only have 2 players who make 7M . Avs have a much more expensive Top 6 + Makar.

Agreed. I messed around on Cap Friendly recently and it's going to be tight this summer. $26.5M in cap space sounds like a lot until you consider all the guys potentially heading out the door (Burakovsky, Kadri, Keumper, Manson, Nichushkin) + re-signing Lehkonen. A 3C with a $5M price tag isn't in the cards next season.

I really think Sakic is going to need to follow the Tampa/Toronto model when it comes to Colorado's depth forwards moving forward. As a refresher...

	Out​	In​
Tampa	LW Goodrow C Gourde C Johnson RW Coleman	C Bellemare C Paul* RW Hagel* RW Perry
Toronto	LW Foligno LW Galchenyuk​ LW Hyman C Boyd C Thornton	LW Bunting LW Ritchie^ C Blackwell* C Kampf​ RW Kase

I know Hagel was a huge TDL addition. And I know Bunting was a home run signing, while Ritchie was a "Toronto Maple Leafs Special" kinda signing. But the general premise of cheap depth with upside has generally worked out for both teams. Kampf, for example, has been great for Toronto.

I hope we're seeing some of that already with Cogliano and Sturm, both of whom I hope are re-signed for cheap.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Easily.

I hope you're right.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I hope you're right.

Not sure why he wouldn’t be able to. I mean Barrie brought back Kadri as a pending UFA. Girard should be able to do the same.