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Rumor: 2022-2022 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part 14: Sakic goes back to bed

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The Abusement Park said:
Manson vs Girard is an easy choice. Like it’s not even close.
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That's not really the choice though. It's Girard vs Manson+Girard return.

Also I don't think Manson will cost $5M. I think Joe can get a number close to $4M. Maybe even in the mid-high 3's if he gives some term.

He doesn't put up enough points to garner $5M at 31 years old (in October). Take out his career high 37 points in 2018-19, and his next career highs are 17, 16, and 15.

Here are some of his comparables as low scoring defensive defenseman that have signed in the last two years.

Chris Tanev - $4.5M x 4
Adam Larsson - $4M x 4
Nikita Zadorov - $3.75M x 1
Ryan Suter - $3.65M x 4
David Savard - $3.5M x 4
Ryan Graves - $3.166M x 3
Radko Gudas - $2.5M x 3
Erik Gudbranson - $1.95M x 1
Zac Bogosian - $850k x 3
 
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Perratrooper said:
I think we end up making the following moves in the off-season:
Nuke: 5 x $4.5
Lehkonen: 4 x $3.5
Sturm: 2 x $2.5

Then we make some minor retention re-signings of Maltsev, MacD and McD. I put Cogs in as well as an arbitrary 4th liner at around $1m.

With this roster we would still have a lot of room to potentially move out JTC and get another top 6 forward or more depth pieces for the third line.

Not the prettiest lineup, but certainly still competitive.


View attachment 520727View attachment 520728View attachment 520729
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I think you’ll see nuke ask for something that starts with a six, and quite frankly he deserves it
 
lionsDen said:
I think you’ll see nuke ask for something that starts with a six, and quite frankly he deserves it
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Eh, Nichushkin will want a 6 year term but I think 5 is right. Minor injury type stuff will take a toll. I’d say team friendly would be like 5.25M. 6M is a little rich. As between him and Burakovsky, you pay and retain Nichushkin.
 
Honestly we’ve gotta pull out every option/trick in the book when it comes to all our contracts including Nuke. Give him 8 years if he wants it if it lowers the AAV enough. Win now, deal with any issues that’ll bring 6 years down the road.
 
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Balthazar said:
We have to move JTC and Girard in the offseason. Especially if we want to keep Manson and Nuke.

That said would you rather pay 5M for 31 yo Manson or 5M for 23 yo Girard? Dilemma.

Lehkonen we're keeping him. Sakic said himself at the presser that "we have him for at least 2 years". I just hope we'll be smart enough to not just send a one year qualifying offer and walk him to UFA.
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I personally don't think Manson gets $5M AAV. Some recent UFA comparables are Larsson ($4Mx4), Oleksiak ($4.6x5), and Tanev ($4.5x4). Also Conor Murphy, a re-signing, is similar at $4.4x4.

IMO, what Sakic should do is give him something like ~$4.5x4, but structure the salary $6-$5-$4-$3 so he can trade him to Arizona in two years if he falls off. That would also free up a lot of space to re-sign Devon Toews.

Manson will likely not age well but he could big a difference maker for the next three playoff runs. Fortunately bad teams are constantly eating bad contracts.
 
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Foppa2118 said:
That's not really the choice though. It's Girard vs Manson+Girard return.

Also I don't think Manson will cost $5M. I think Joe can get a number close to $4M. Maybe even in the mid-high 3's if he gives some term.

He doesn't put up enough points to garner $5M at 31 years old (in October). Take out his career high 37 points in 2018-19, and his next career highs are 17, 16, and 15.

Here are some of his comparables as low scoring defensive defenseman that have signed in the last two years.

Chris Tanev - $4.5M x 4
Adam Larsson - $4M x 4
Nikita Zadorov - $3.75M x 1
Ryan Suter - $3.65M x 4
David Savard - $3.5M x 4
Ryan Graves - $3.166M x 3
Radko Gudas - $2.5M x 3
Erik Gudbranson - $1.95M x 1
Zac Bogosian - $850k x 3
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I mean I guess it would depend on the Girard return. But giving Manson term doesn’t seem the most responsible, his play style isn’t conducive to aging well.
 
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The Abusement Park said:
I mean I guess it would depend on the Girard return. But giving Manson term doesn’t seem the most responsible, his play style isn’t conducive to aging well.
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I'd go 4 years on Manson but would push HARD for 3 years, even if it meant a slightly higher AAV.

The biggest "if" is Bo Byram. If that guy can somehow stay healthy, you have to trade Girard for help up front.

If he can't, though, then this team is going to suffer because of it. I wish the guy all the health in the world but from a team standpoint it'd be a top-5 pick "busting" due to injury. That's a huge blow to a team.
 
To be honest with Manson...are we sure the Avs are his preferred destination next season? I kinda got the impression that he might circle back and continue negotiating with the Ducks in the off-season.
 
I think trading Girard this summer is probably going to be the teams best interest deal to make... One of him or Byram anyways.


Assuming Byram plays again this year, and stays healthy for the playoff run... Having 3 LD that are all basically #3D or higher is just overkill. And I know Girard has played RD this year, but he is better on the Left Side and IMO shouldn't be playing the Right Side unless we absolutely have to(And IMO the biggest reason he was the guy playing RD this year was because Bednar trusted him more on the Right side then JJ or Murray or anyone else).


The bigger question is going to be about who/what they target with the trade. If you can get a really good young 2C, like a Petey or a Barzal, that's what they need to do. But if those guys aren't available(And most likely they wont be).... I think the best play might honestly be to just get the best haul of futures that we can get for him.


Not that I think we should be retooling or rebuilding and targeting picks/prospects... More that I think we could flip those assets to more easily target good players that are available.
 
The Abusement Park said:
I mean I guess it would depend on the Girard return. But giving Manson term doesn’t seem the most responsible, his play style isn’t conducive to aging well.
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It definitely depends on the Girard return and what Manson demands in AAV. I agree Manson isn’t the best guy to give term to, but as with my thoughts on giving Nuke 8 years, our most important thing moving forward is keeping the AAV down.

We’ve got to go all in on the next 3 years and if it means overpaying in term, then so be it if it gets a good enough AAV.

In a related note, but on the flip side of this, we’ll probably want/need to give Byram the 3 year bridge treatment to get his AAV down unless we could get him to agree to an insanely good/team friendly deal for longer.
 
shadow1 said:
I personally don't think Manson gets $5M AAV. Some recent UFA comparables are Larsson ($4Mx4), Oleksiak ($4.6x5), and Tanev ($4.5x4). Also Conor Murphy, a re-signing, is similar at $4.4x4.

IMO, what Sakic should do is give him something like ~$4.5x4, but structure the salary $6-$5-$4-$3 so he can trade him to Arizona in two years if he falls off. That would also free up a lot of space to re-sign Devon Toews.

Manson will likely not age well but he could big a difference maker for the next three playoff runs. Fortunately bad teams are constantly eating bad contracts.
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...presuming he's a good fit with Colorado. He's had two rocky games in a row, after looking great against two familiar Pacific Division foes.
 
dahrougem2 said:
Boy did we dodge a bullet not trading with the Islanders.

Cal Clutterbuck out for the rest of the season with shoulder surgery, and Scott Mayfield out 4-6 weeks with a lower body injury.
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Pretty sure those wouldn't have been surprising injuries, more just a case of lingering issues that they're dealing with now because their season is over. Lou and Sakic have a good relationship so it's likely that Lou would have informed Sakic of their injury situations.
 
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Richard88 said:
Pretty sure those wouldn't have been surprising injuries, more just a case of lingering issues that they're dealing with now because their season is over. Lou and Sakic have a good relationship so it's likely that Lou would have informed Sakic of their injury situations.
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Of course, but I can imagine Clutterbuck wanting to play through the injury if he was traded to a contending team for a playoff run. The style of game he plays does not lend itself to playing through a shoulder injury.
 
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Lou has showed an impressive amount of loyalty by re-signing Clutterbuck, at his age and mileage, for 2 years just days before that surgery. He knows that if he doesn't get better he'll collect insurance money.
 
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Balthazar said:
Lou has showed an impressive amount of loyalty by re-signing Clutterbuck, at his age and mileage, for 2 years just days before that surgery. He knows that if he doesn't get better he'll collect insurance money.
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Lou's been anything but "loyal" over the years. Not necessarily a diss on him either, dude can be insanely ruthless, he does not hesitate to scuttle players and/or staff if he feels they're hampering efforts toward a championship in any way.

For instance, he signed Leo Komarov for WAY too much money and term, and when push came to shove, he waived/demoted him, and Komarov refused to report, so they terminated the deal. Don't be surprised if this one ends the same way.
 
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