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Rumor: 2022-2022 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part 14: Sakic goes back to bed

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Cousin Eddie said:
Lol. The Avs currently have a a 16 point lead on 2nd in their division. A 23 point lead on being out of a playoff spot. You think Kadri and Burakovsky are the difference in that and being lucky to make the playoffs? They likely won’t be as good as this year but what a take that is.
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Kadri has been worth close to 4 wins this year, and Bura around 2 (as per GSVA). And Val has benefited a great deal from Kadri turning into a borderline Art Ross candidate (avg ~0.5-1 prior to this year, but on pace for 3.5 this season). Let’s say he drops just 1-1.5 wins once Kadri leaves. That already a loss of 7-7.5 wins.

Also the first line is playing above their avg level for the last 3 years. Especially Landy. So even if they regress a tiny bit, you lose 1.5-2 total between the 3 of them.

That’s close to a 9-10 (18-20 pts) win deficit next year. And no one on the FA market is close to making up any of that. I don’t think people understand how insane Kadri has been this year, and how much his play has trickled through our lineup. Their is nothing we can do to even remotely come close to replacing his current production (except maybe JT Miller).

Missing the playoffs next year is very very unlikely, but not inconceivable. Just an injury here or there, and it gets dicey.
 
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ANewHope said:
I feel like all the injuries we’ve dealt with the past 2 years needs to be factored in as well. We’ve absolutely dominated the regular season. I still remember some people predicting we’d struggle now that we weren’t in an easy division and losing Saad.

Winning a cup is an entirely different story but this defensive core/ top line will be enough to make the playoffs IMO. You’d need major injuries to the goaltending situation, Newhook to turn into Jost, and Byram to be finished for this team to head back to the lottery.

If this team misses the playoffs next year than Sakic needs to be fired because he’s made major mistakes.
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I was going to comment on the injuries and stuff but I realized they can happen again. But it’s certainly a valid point. If we get 82 games of Mackinnon next year that’s much better than this year.
 
nammerus said:
Kadri has been worth close to 4 wins this year, and Bura around 2 (as per GSVA). And Val has benefited a great deal from Kadri turning into a borderline Art Ross candidate (avg ~0.5-1 prior to this year, but on pace for 3.5 this season). Let’s say he drops just 1-1.5 wins once Kadri leaves. That already a loss of 7-7.5 wins.

Also the first line is playing above their avg level for the last 3 years. Especially Landy. So even if they regress a tiny bit, you lose 1.5-2 total between the 3 of them.

That’s close to a 9-10 (18-20 pts) win deficit next year. And no one on the FA market is close to making up any of that. I don’t think people understand how insane Kadri has been this year, and how much it has trickled through our lineup. Their is nothing we can do to replace his current production.

Missing the playoffs next year is unlikely, but not inconceivable.
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Wtf. You can’t just take away WAR stats without factoring in the positive WAR stats of whoever would be replacing them. Sure from an analytical perspective Burakovsky is around 2 wins but whoever they bring in to replace him won’t be dead 0. If their replacements are even half the players those guys are you can still cut your losses in half that you just threw out.
 
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I havnt seen what the UFA market is like next season or players potentially being shopped but just putting in Rantanen at C next year would be interesting. Just don't think we can keep loading up the top line for much longer with our depth taking a hit soon. Also much easier to find Burakovsky type wingers or letting newhook have a shot. If we keep nuke, lehk and Landy we could still have a nice balanced attack with the best D in the league.
 
Cousin Eddie said:
Wtf. You can’t just take away WAR stats without factoring in the positive WAR stats of whoever would be replacing them. Sure from an analytical perspective Burakovsky is around 2 wins but whoever they bring in to replace him won’t be dead 0. If their replacements are even half the players those guys are you can still cut your losses in half that you just threw out.
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Not sure why you’re so angry. I agree with you it’s incredibly unlikely we miss the playoffs.

And if you’re going talk about replacements, who do you have coming in to replace the 6-7 wins we’ll lose from Kadri/Bura? Have you see the UFA list? Trochek is probably the best C replacement and he’s only worth 1.5 wins. And we can’t really add much more than one decent FA.
 
If Byram shows he is back to 100% for the rest of the season and playoffs IMO Manson will be re-signed and Girard will be used to get us a very good top-6 Fwd with term. That way we will be able to afford Nuke, Lehky and Manson. Possibly Sturm as well if he is willing to stay.
 
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nammerus said:
Not sure why you’re so angry. I agree with you it’s incredibly unlikely we miss the playoffs.

And if you’re going talk about replacements, who do you have coming in to replace the 6-7 wins we’ll lose from Kadri/Bura? Have you see the UFA list? Trochek is probably the best C replacement and he’s only worth 1.5 wins. And we can’t really add much more than one decent FA.
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A full year of Byram (hopefully). Girard will likely be better if paired with that Byram as opposed to JJ. If you’re looking at it straight from a WAR perspective Newhook’s will almost certainly rise with more ice time. Lehkonen will add much more than Jost for example which is a swap we just made.

There’s plenty of factors. But based on their regular season play and pace this year they’ll have to revert back by nearly 30 points next year to miss the playoffs and the only losses from the projected roster Pierce commented on was Burakovsky and Kadri. Important losses but not 30 points worth of losses.
 
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nammerus said:
Kadri has been worth close to 4 wins this year, and Bura around 2 (as per GSVA). And Val has benefited a great deal from Kadri turning into a borderline Art Ross candidate (avg ~0.5-1 prior to this year, but on pace for 3.5 this season). Let’s say he drops just 1-1.5 wins once Kadri leaves. That already a loss of 7-7.5 wins.

Also the first line is playing above their avg level for the last 3 years. Especially Landy. So even if they regress a tiny bit, you lose 1.5-2 total between the 3 of them.

That’s close to a 9-10 (18-20 pts) win deficit next year. And no one on the FA market is close to making up any of that. I don’t think people understand how insane Kadri has been this year, and how much his play has trickled through our lineup. Their is nothing we can do to even remotely come close to replacing his current production (except maybe JT Miller).

Missing the playoffs next year is very very unlikely, but not inconceivable. Just an injury here or there, and it gets dicey.
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Kadri is having an insane year, but he struggled in 2021 and Colorado still won the President's Trophy.

You're focusing way too much on WAR, which isn't a static metric/number from season too to (edit: how tf did I write "too") season. Similar to how Kadri (16:28 -> 19:17) and Nichushkin (14:05 -> 18:15) have seen leaps in their output with more ice time and better deployment/linemates, so too could guys like Lehkonen (14:43) and Newhook (13:47 TOI) in the future.

Alternatively, we may see what we saw in 2021, when Colorado had more middle-6 depth (Donskoi and Saad) and played the 2nd/3rd lines pretty equally. There are lots of ways to slice the pizza.
 
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Richard88 said:
That 3rd like will be lucky to score 20 goals combined.
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I don’t disagree, it’s just what we project to have for lines if we do not make a major move(s) in the off-season. If we shed JTC we could make a $7.5m player or two $3.5m players. If OO or one of our other prospects are able to fill in as an offensive third liner we have a bit more wiggle room on our third line.
 
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We have to move JTC and Girard in the offseason. Especially if we want to keep Manson and Nuke.

That said would you rather pay 5M for 31 yo Manson or 5M for 23 yo Girard? Dilemma.

Lehkonen we're keeping him. Sakic said himself at the presser that "we have him for at least 2 years". I just hope we'll be smart enough to not just send a one year qualifying offer and walk him to UFA.
 
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Balthazar said:
We have to move JTC and Girard in the offseason. Especially if we want to keep Manson and Nuke.

That said would you rather pay 5M for 31 yo Manson or 5M for 23 yo Girard? Dilemma.

Lehkonen we're keeping him. Sakic said himself at the presser that "we have him for at least 2 years". I just hope we'll be smart enough to not just send a one year qualifying offer and walk him to UFA.
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Manson vs Girard is an easy choice. Like it’s not even close.
 
It's pretty apparent how important we need Byram to not only get healthy but fufill his potential in order for this team to stay competitive in the upcoming years. This offseason is going to be a challenge for Joe. Depth is going to take a hit again.
 
The Pwnerer said:
It's pretty apparent how important we need Byram to not only get healthy but fufill his potential in order for this team to stay competitive in the upcoming years. This offseason is going to be a challenge for Joe. Depth is going to take a hit again.
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For the upcoming years we needed one of Barron or Helleson to become a top 4 RHD.

Now it's going to be complicated, to say the least.
 
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The Abusement Park said:
Manson vs Girard is an easy choice. Like it’s not even close.
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The nice thing is that Sakic and team will have an adequate opportunity to make that assessment and determination for themselves based on their on ice play. So far, when circumstances permit, Sakic has been pretty savvy and at times, shrewd in his trades and signings since Roy left.

I’m not saying that Girard should be kept or traded. But it was nice to see that Sakic’s acquisition of Manson aligned with trying to address what many of us saw as Girard’s deficiencies, namely having to play on his off side and lack of physicality against the VGK.
 
Is it a forgone conclusion that Copp re-signs with NY? He is a guy the could be an affordable middle six center, a poor man's Danault but could thrive off the system in Colorado. Would he want a similar contract to Coleman?
 
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