2021 Roster Thread XIX - Who's In Net

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GapToothedWonder

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AV runs 3 lines so it should not be surprising to see everone scrunched together.

Laughton played 3rd line C with JVR and Farabee when Couts was out....and the line played great. JVR was 4th in the league in scoring on the day Couts returned. Farabee was on a 62 point pace.

100% agreed Laughton could be 9th/10th in talent. And if Frost, Patrick, and Lindblom all had good years and Alllison/Laczynski could stay healthy, Laughton likely would have been traded at the deadline. But that didn't happen.

How does one go from being trade bait if a few other players have a good season to somebody you extend for 5 years in the course of a few months?
 

The Madrigal

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How does one go from being trade bait if a few other players have a good season to somebody you extend for 5 years in the course of a few months?
Because a few young players who might have been able to take on that role at a cheaper cap hit either didn't show they were ready or even regressed to the point where they can't be counted on for much of anything. It's all well and good to say this guy or that guy can replace Laughton on a cheaper contract but until they prove it it means nothing. Laughton's ES points over the last three seasons are 30, 36 in 64 games, and 19 in 53 games. So basically you are talking about having to replace 30-35 es points from a guy who splits time between the 3rd and 4th lines as well as wing and center. Not as easy as some would make it out to be.
 

Striiker

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And he's still using Laughton's scoring over the past two years. As if having sky high individual and on-ice shooting %s is repeatable and don't make that scoring sample worthless for evaluation. :laugh:

Raw scoring numbers too.

People just don't learn.
 

GapToothedWonder

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Because a few young players who might have been able to take on that role at a cheaper cap hit either didn't show they were ready or even regressed to the point where they can't be counted on for much of anything. It's all well and good to say this guy or that guy can replace Laughton on a cheaper contract but until they prove it it means nothing. Laughton's ES points over the last three seasons are 30, 36 in 64 games, and 19 in 53 games. So basically you are talking about having to replace 30-35 es points from a guy who splits time between the 3rd and 4th lines as well as wing and center. Not as easy as some would make it out to be.

I guess that's why 30-35 point 3Ws get 5 year contracts all the time. Crazy that they would ever think about exposing such a hard to replace piece to the trade market.
 

The Madrigal

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I guess that's why 30-35 point 3Ws get 5 year contracts all the time. Crazy that they would ever think about exposing such a hard to replace piece to the trade market.
They do actually. Pittsburgh just recently gave Brandon Tanev a six year deal at a 3.5 million cap hit versus Laughton who got five years at 3.0 million. They were both 27 when their new contracts kicked in and Laughton is a more versatile and slightly more productive player.

A 32 year old Jay Beagle with a career high of 30 points got a four year deal at a 3 million cap hit from the Canucks in 2018.

There are examples of older and/or less productive players than Laughton who get 4-6 years and around the same cap hit in free agency every year.

Also, if we are going to get technical about what Laughton is from a production standpoint. If you include the playoffs, Laughton has produced 88 points over the last three seasons/199 games. This comes out to .442 points per game, or 36 points over an 82 game season.

I certainly wouldn't have prefered a five year deal for Laughton, but acting like 35 point guys who split their time between the 3rd and 4th lines are a dime a dozen is simply incorrect. His play and contract is nothing to get super excited about, nor get upset about as both are solid for this team.
 
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deadhead

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So…..the 2nd line then? I don’t know why top 6 Laughton is still a good thing. It might be debatable if he’s even a top 9 forward on this team next year, with Frost and Allison and a healthy Oskar. For all the talk of his previous high water mark year, he only outscored NAK, Raffl, and Patrick on a rate basis last season at 5v5.

If Laughton is on your 3rd line, you have a pretty good 3rd line, if he's pushed down to your 4th line, you may have as deep a group of forwards of any team in the NHL. He's not only scoring at a 2nd line rate, he's improved his defense and his play on the PK, and is our best forechecker.
 

deadhead

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The top two lines are probably G- Couts - TK, Farabee - Hayes - Allison.
So it's mix and match for the bottom six, depending on who is still around.
Frost, Patrick, Laughton, Laczynski at center
Lindblom, JVR, Laughton, J Cates at LW
Voracek, NAK, Laczynski, Patrick at RW
Willman (LW/C), Foerster and Wisdom RW, are training camp long-shots.
 

Striiker

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I look forward to people inevitably turning on Allison a few months into next season when he doesn't live up to the absurd expectations people have set for him.

I really don't know how many times we're going to follow this exact same script before people finally figure it out. The new guy shine will wear off, he'll have a scoring slump, and the team will lose a few games... and suddenly he'll just be "lazy" and "not care", like all the others.
 
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deadhead

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I look forward to people inevitably turning on Allison a few months into next season when he doesn't live up to the absurd expectations people have set for him.

I really don't know how many times we're going to follow this exact same script before people finally figure it out. The new guy shine will wear off, he'll have a scoring slump, and the team will lose a few games... and suddenly he'll just be "lazy" and "not care", like all the others.

Don't think you actually watched Allison, did you?
He'll be a favorite because his game is predicated on hustle and two way play, not because he scores.
Now if he regresses like NAK, all bets are off - NAK didn't play with the same fire he brought as a rookie.

But Philly fans rally behind players who play hard (well, except for this board, most fans in the NHL would love a forward who forechecks like Laughton and has offensive skills), and Allison brought it to both ends of the ice.

The players who get in trouble are the ones who take games off, TK lets his scoring slumps effect his all around game, though he was better last year, if you're not scoring, then bust your hump on defense and skate hard on your backcheck, scoring is stochastic, effort is character.
 
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Starat327

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I look forward to people inevitably turning on Allison a few months into next season when he doesn't live up to the absurd expectations people have set for him.

I really don't know how many times we're going to follow this exact same script before people finally figure it out. The new guy shine will wear off, he'll have a scoring slump, and the team will lose a few games... and suddenly he'll just be "lazy" and "not care", like all the others.

Sandin is a shoe in for PP2, as well.
 

Curufinwe

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So…..the 2nd line then? I don’t know why top 6 Laughton is still a good thing. It might be debatable if he’s even a top 9 forward on this team next year, with Frost and Allison and a healthy Oskar. For all the talk of his previous high water mark year, he only outscored NAK, Raffl, and Patrick on a rate basis last season at 5v5.

Laughton wasn’t healthy either this season; he took a long time to get over Covid. I think his rate over the past three seasons is a fairer reflection of what we should expect going forward.
 
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Curufinwe

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The top two lines are probably G- Couts - TK, Farabee - Hayes - Allison.
So it's mix and match for the bottom six, depending on who is still around.
Frost, Patrick, Laughton, Laczynski at center
Lindblom, JVR, Laughton, J Cates at LW
Voracek, NAK, Laczynski, Patrick at RW
Willman (LW/C), Foerster and Wisdom RW, are training camp long-shots.

That’s a pretty small sample size you’re working off to pencil the oft injured rookie Allison in as a top 6 winger ahead of two guys who lead the team in points, among others. Reminds me of the last time we had an ED and you were completely convinced that Coots-Weise would be a forever combo just because they played together in the final weeks of a non-playoff season. I’m not saying Allison and Weise are comparable, just that you shouldn’t assume April lines will carry over directly to October.
 

deadhead

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That’s a pretty small sample size you’re working off to pencil the oft injured rookie Allison in as a top 6 winger ahead of two guys who lead the team in points, among others. Reminds me of the last time we had an ED and you were completely convinced that Coots-Weise would be a forever combo just because they played together in the final weeks of a non-playoff season. I’m not saying Allison and Weise are comparable, just that you shouldn’t assume April lines will carry over directly to October.

Eyeball says Farabee/Allison had good chemistry with Hayes, JVR also has had it, and Laughton to some extent.
On the other hand, Hayes with TK/Voracek is poison.

Allison has a solid track record when healthy in college, he had an off season recovering from his ACL, 27 goals in his first 58 college games before injury, then took a while to get started as a senior, still 10 goals in 26 games before things were shut down. So 37 goals in 84 games, then 8 goals in 24 games this past season between AHL/NHL. The kid can score.

But what impressed me was how hard he played, his skating was better than advertised, he back checked consistently and hit everything that moved - and his NHL performance built on his "Phancy stats" from the AHL which were outstanding.

So I don't think he's a "flash in the pan."
 
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Magua

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Laughton wasn’t healthy either this season; he took a long time to get over Covid. I think his rate over the past three seasons is a fairer reflection of what we should expect going forward.

It's possible. I don't recall him specifically saying he was a long hauler or anything:
“I had some body aches and headaches and just fatigue that lasted about two days,” [Laughton] said. “Then it was more about just staying in my room and making sure I didn’t get my girlfriend sick or anything like that.”

He did have 8 points in his first 13 games returning, before his 3 points in 27 games finish. He had pretty brutal underlying numbers two seasons ago, but I didn't think that was his true value. Sure enough, he returned to possession neutral. I think his finishing is his best attribute, but it's still not hard to spot the outlier 5v5 season, which was brought up ad nauseam, in these groupings:

1.88 points/60......0.63 goals/60
1.36......0.6
1.51.......0.54
2.53......1.21
1.41.....0.62​

Sure, he can spike again like any player, but I think his last season looks relatively in line with his career norm, just without that mega-drought. He's not a passer, and even two seasons ago his primary assist/60 at 5v5 remained consistent. As usual, it comes down to shooting %s. He's fine in a vacuum. Still don't care for a 5 year contract for a 3rd liner, whose usage should get squeezed out further.
 

The Madrigal

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