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Pre-Game Talk: 2021 Rookie Faceoff 9/17-20

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triplcrown said:
Like a classic chili recipe requires a lot of simmering time, Byfield just needs time to unfold and fully develop his entire game. There's a lot there to unpack and develop.

I'd like to see him left down in the AHL for the entire season, unless he starts scoring in bunches and challenges for the scoring title.

When Byfield is getting 1.5 pts/game in the AHL, then I'd promote him, however long that takes.
He'll get there.

Rushing is not necessary.
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Im in the same boat, if rather him play big AHL first line minutes instead of 8-10 mins in the nhl
 
Byfield is making “great passes” in a rookie tourney whereas Stutzle has 29 points in 53 NHL games.

One player is oft injured and barely making a dent and the other player is scoring at the NHL.

Kings didn’t need another center - they needed a scoring winger. This could all bite me in the next few years but Kings already had Vilardi, Turcotte, Madden, and Kupari and now Danault. We have no scoring except one player recently acquired by Nashville and a 19 year old 2nd round pick.
 
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Johnny Utah said:
Byfield is making “great passes” in a rookie tourney whereas Stutzle has 29 points in 53 NHL games.

One player is oft injured and barely making a dent and the other player is scoring at the NHL.

Kings didn’t need another center - they needed a scoring winger. This could all bite me in the next few years but Kings already had Vilardi, Turcotte, Madden, and Kupari and now Danault. We have no scoring except one player recently acquired by Nashville and a 19 year old 2nd round pick.
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One more person complaining online about which 19 year old has fewer pimples definitely falls in the category of things not needed.
 
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Johnny Utah said:
Byfield is making “great passes” in a rookie tourney whereas Stutzle has 29 points in 53 NHL games.

One player is oft injured and barely making a dent and the other player is scoring at the NHL.

Kings didn’t need another center - they needed a scoring winger. This could all bite me in the next few years but Kings already had Vilardi, Turcotte, Madden, and Kupari and now Danault. We have no scoring except one player recently acquired by Nashville and a 19 year old 2nd round pick.
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I think Byfield is easy to sleep on - don't forget that bigger guys take a little longer in general. A guy like Ovie is an anomaly, you usually have guys like Chara and Wheeler who took a while to get going. I'm sure Phoenix fans were complaining about wasting that 5th overall while guys like Olesz, Smid, and Stafford were having early success while Wheeler was still in college. I don't think Byfield will take nearly as long as those two to develop, but it takes a bit for these guys to grow into their frames.
 
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Ziggy Stardust said:
Byfield is considered oft injured now?
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Maybe it was a Turcotte/Zegras comment? That's what I'm inferring.

I'm not upset with the Turcotte pick. He seems like he'll be a player. Just like everyone else I'm hoping he can stop with the health issues that keep happening. I wanted Byram or Zegras after the Kings dropped from #2 but that was also because I figured Turcotte would be gone and I didn't want Dach. The real bummer is I was hoping they could trade up to get Seider since he was projected more in the early teens. Would have been thrilled to get Byram and him in that draft but still looks like the Kings did ok with the three they got.
 
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Johnny Utah said:
Byfield is making “great passes” in a rookie tourney whereas Stutzle has 29 points in 53 NHL games.

One player is oft injured and barely making a dent and the other player is scoring at the NHL.

Kings didn’t need another center - they needed a scoring winger. This could all bite me in the next few years but Kings already had Vilardi, Turcotte, Madden, and Kupari and now Danault. We have no scoring except one player recently acquired by Nashville and a 19 year old 2nd round pick.
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Let's be honest, if Byfield was putting up those numbers, you'd be shitting yourself that he wasn't doing more.

Besides that, here's the Leon Draisaitl development curve. This is what Byfield's tentative path would more likely look like.

upload_2021-9-21_11-29-30.png


QB is showing plenty of growth so far, if he were stagnating maybe I'd be worried, but he's absolutely not.

Same with Turcotte as referenced above, that Athletic writeup shows the guys are effusive in their praise of his growth and it showed on the ice too. "barely making a dent" my ass, those prospects completely dominated each game they played which bodes well for their trajectories, their play driving at each level including the WJC was absolutely insane, and saying we have no scorers when each one of those guys you mentioned completely dominated their levels is just a bizarre comment.
 

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Takes up to 5 years after being drafted to put a final grade on 95% of skaters. Look at the 2017 draft for the Kings. You can see where the floor/ceiling is for these guys.

1 #11 Gabriel Vilardi: Floor = 3rd liner, Ceiling = 2nd liner
2 #41 Jaret Anderson-Dolan: Floor = minor leaguer, Ceiling = 3rd liner
3 #72 Matt Villalta: Floor = minor leaguer, Ceiling = ? since he’s a goalie
4 #103 Mikey Anderson: Floor = 3rd pair, Ceiling = 2nd pair (before you argue, consider him without Doughty)
4 #118 Markus Phillips: Ceiling = minor leaguer
5 #134 Cole Hults : Ceiling = minor leaguer
5 #138 Drake Rymsha : Ceiling = minor leaguer

Right now it looks like the Kings will produce 2 depth guys out of the 2017 draft. And they missed out on guys who’ve established themselves as top of the roster players like Robertson, Norris, Suzuki, Necas, Comtois, and Chytil. And it could be argued that Texier, Tolvanen, Thomas, and Batherson are all ready to be big minute players this season.

So it’s too soon to put a grade on the kids who were drafted since 2019. But I think it’s fair to be concerned that for all the praise the Kings get for the prospect pool, that none of the prospects have shown they are capable of dominating at the minor pro level. Makes you think that pinning a bunch of hopes on these kids while Kopitar and Doughty play out their contracts is wishful thinking.
 
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DoktorJeep said:
Takes up to 5 years after being drafted to put a final grade on 95% of skaters. Look at the 2017 draft for the Kings. You can see where the floor/ceiling is for these guys.

1 #11 Gabriel Vilardi: Floor = 3rd liner, Ceiling = 2nd liner
2 #41 Jaret Anderson-Dolan: Floor = minor leaguer, Ceiling = 3rd liner
3 #72 Matt Villalta: Floor = minor leaguer, Ceiling = ? since he’s a goalie
4 #103 Mikey Anderson: Floor = 3rd pair, Ceiling = 2nd pair (before you argue, consider him without Doughty)
4 #118 Markus Phillips: Ceiling = minor leaguer
5 #134 Cole Hults : Ceiling = minor leaguer
5 #138 Drake Rymsha : Ceiling = minor leaguer

Right now it looks like the Kings will produce 2 depth guys out of the 2017 draft. And they missed out on guys who’ve established themselves as top of the roster players like Robertson, Norris, Suzuki, Necas, Comtois, and Chytil. And it could be argued that Texier, Tolvanen, Thomas, and Batherson are all ready to be big minute players this season.

So it’s too soon to put a grade on the kids who were drafted since 2019. But I think it’s fair to be concerned that for all the praise the Kings get for the prospect pool, that none of the prospects have shown they are capable of dominating at the minor pro level. Makes you think that pinning a bunch of hopes on these kids while Kopitar and Doughty play out their contracts is wishful thinking.
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So turning a middle-third 1st round pick into a top sixer, a fourth round pick into a top 4 dman, and a 2nd into at least a depth player isn't a good draft?

No, it's not fair to be concerned based on that, especially given most of the hope was drafted after this. If anything, it's a good omen of things to come, given they had multiple high picks after the fact. In this draft they had merely one middle first, middle second, middle third. And have turned it into at least three players.

Frankly the folks complaining aren't making their expectations clear. Is it that they aren't producing at the NHL level yet? Then let them play at the nhl level before crying over spilt milk. If it's that they aren't 'dominating at the minor pro level' that's just absolutely wrong especially in comparison to the other prospects being touted. This is just the usual grass is always greener bullshit and it gets so, so old.

Edit: never mind, I'm done arguing, enjoy digging up flimsy 'evidence' to continue wallowing in your own ignorant misery. See you at camp, boys.
 
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Raccoon Jesus said:
So turning a middle-third 1st round pick into a top sixer, a fourth round pick into a top 4 dman, and a 2nd into at least a depth player isn't a good draft?

No, it's not fair to be concerned based on that, especially given most of the hope was drafted after this. If anything, it's a good omen of things to come.
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If you’re handing out plaques for showing up, sure, the Kings weren’t incompetent. But they missed out on a bunch of difference makers, so they don’t get to circle the bases throwing high fives without any home runs. I’m not going to change your mind about how well the team has done at drafting and development. And I agree that it’s too soon to forecast certain doom.

But at some point, results must happen. In 6 months, defending this management group will be a tall order of homerism if the team and players don’t put up wins while also producing to their expected levels. The one thing I’ve seen for decades is that Kings fans who defend slow moving GMs are never willing to put a deadline on when they expect results.
 
DoktorJeep said:
If you’re handing out plaques for showing up, sure, the Kings weren’t incompetent. But they missed out on a bunch of difference makers, so they don’t get to circle the bases throwing high fives without any home runs. I’m not going to change your mind about how well the team has done at drafting and development. And I agree that it’s too soon to forecast certain doom.

But at some point, results must happen. In 6 months, defending this management group will be a tall order of homerism if the team and players don’t put up wins while also producing to their expected levels. The one thing I’ve seen for decades is that Kings fans who defend slow moving GMs are never willing to put a deadline on when they expect results.
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None of those guys have been 'difference makers' any more than Vilardi. Robertson has one f***ing NHL point! Necas, who is thrown into a softer role on a much, MUCH better team. That's about the only clear 'win' and as you point out it's MUCH too early to be penning careers in ink.

It's not that we're unwilling to put out deadlines, it's that some folks are projecting prospect development as linear, ever upward, and finite. It doesn't work like that and never has. And it's even dumber to do it after a rookie scrimmage tournament in which both the 1. process AND 2. results were there! There's literally nothing to complain about after these games and people are finding a way!

Agreed that we should start seeing results this year, though.
 
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Raccoon Jesus said:
None of those guys have been 'difference makers' any more than Vilardi. Robertson has one f***ing NHL point! Necas, who is thrown into a softer role on a much, MUCH better team. That's about the only clear 'win' and as you point out it's MUCH too early to be penning careers in ink.

It's not that we're unwilling to put out deadlines, it's that some folks are projecting prospect development as linear, ever upward, and finite. It doesn't work like that and never has. And it's even dumber to do it after a rookie scrimmage tournament in which both the 1. process AND 2. results were there! There's literally nothing to complain about after these games and people are finding a way!

Agreed that we should start seeing results this year, though.
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I’ve been on record that this team won’t sniff playoffs till ‘23 at the soonest. So I’m not unhappy with the kids. But I get why fans who aren’t patient are worried.

And Jason Robertson put up 45 points last year. Vilardi has a legitimate excuse due to his back injury. Excuses about deployment ignore the fact that a bunch of players the Kings passed on were more consistent last year than Vilardi. Feel free to ignore this flimsy evidence.

Gabe Vilardi 54gm 10g 13a 23pts
Jason Robertson 51gm 17g 28a 45pts
John Norris 56gm 17g 18a 35pts
Nick Suzuki 56gm 15g 26a 41pts
Martin Necas 53gm 14g 27a 41pts
Max Comtois 55gm 16g 17a 33pts
Filip Chytil 42gm 8g 14a 22pts
Drake Batherson 56gm 17g 17a 34pts
Eeli Tolvanen 40gm 11g 11a 22pts
Robert Thomas 33gm 3g 9a 12pt
Alex Texier 49gm 4g 11a 15pt
 
DoktorJeep said:
I’ve been on record that this team won’t sniff playoffs till ‘23 at the soonest. So I’m not unhappy with the kids. But I get why fans who aren’t patient are worried.

And Jason Robertson put up 45 points last year. Vilardi has a legitimate excuse due to his back injury. Excuses about deployment ignore the fact that a bunch of players the Kings passed on were more consistent last year than Vilardi. Feel free to ignore this flimsy evidence.

Gabe Vilardi 54gm 10g 13a 23pts
Jason Robertson 51gm 17g 28a 45pts
John Norris 56gm 17g 18a 35pts
Nick Suzuki 56gm 15g 26a 41pts
Martin Necas 53gm 14g 27a 41pts
Max Comtois 55gm 16g 17a 33pts
Filip Chytil 42gm 8g 14a 22pts
Drake Batherson 56gm 17g 17a 34pts
Eeli Tolvanen 40gm 11g 11a 22pts
Robert Thomas 33gm 3g 9a 12pt
Alex Texier 49gm 4g 11a 15pt
Click to expand...


I was thinking Nick Robertson, whoops.

I see 6 players there with more points than Gabe and not a single one of them was given a similar role--they're literally all secondary scoring wingers, not 2Cs for a basement franchise. Pretending he's not in their stratosphere, especially when considering multiple components of context, is dishonest and even you point that out. I'm not making excuses, i'm saying 1. prospect development, again, isn't linear or ever upward; 2. you point out gabe's back injury, giving him a different trajectory than most; 3. deployment matters, even if you want to hand wave it; 4. other teams ALSO passed on these players, and the Kings could only pick one--faulting them for not picking several other guys is some seriously smelly bullshit. and finally 5. the suggestion that a pick isn't good because six players taken after him scored more in an early 20 year is just...come on.

Ultimately, though, the BIGGER point is that using this draft to color impressions of the drafts that follow is flawed for many, MANY reasons, including the ones above myopically focusing on the 2017 draft as a harbinger of what's to come, whether you believe it's positive OR negative.

I've never seen anyone try to be negative about a franchise hitting 75% of their picks in the first 4 rounds (100% on skaters).
 
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