Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft Thread

[Captain Awesome]

I get the impression he doesn't even want to be writing about hockey, don't think he really cares for the sport that much.

Feels like he did this job to get closer to the Mavs

Apparently he has already covered every other pro sports team in the city (even the MLS team), maybe he's just checking this one off to have all of them.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Mason McTavish ranked the #2 North American skater on central scouting's final list.

Seems like he's going to be this year's late riser. He was my favorite player of the guys I thought might be available with the Stars pick, seems like that's a lot less likely now.

 

[Dynamite Time]

I'd just say give him another year. This is not exactly the best year to start a beat. He can't even talk to the players face to face, makes it really difficult to pump out content. It is crazy the difference in the amount of pieces that came out under both, but I never really thought Shapiro was great at actual hockey analysis (especially his talent evaluation), but he was definitely a content making machine, and I still liked quite a bit of it. Then again, I like the league-wide coverage even more than the Dallas stuff and always have. Hockey is full of garbage reporting, so I'm very happy to pay for the Athletic's coverage. At the very least it's interesting to see all the advanced stat stuff, and you get to read all the DGB articles.

As for firing Nill, I'm all for it. He's had enough time to build something, we're about where we were when we hired him, maybe slightly better off. It's hard to compare GMs in the NHL, It's harder to suggest a name for replacement. There are no names to suggest because no one wants the same retreads that aren't good for anything. Chances are, the best hire is probably someone who hasn't been a GM before. The NHL is an old boys' club, everyone in the NHL is constantly failing up.

Ken Holland has a great run as wings GM, but basically is terrible for several years and runs the team absolutely into the ground. Rightfully, he gets fired, and somehow ends up getting handed the keys to Connor f***ing Mcdavid and the Edmonton Oilers. Chuck Fletcher gets a decade with the Wild, who are maybe the most milquetoast, unmemorable franchise in the entire league. Finally, he gets canned, and somehow immediately gets a job being the GM of the Flyers. Benning, Treliving, Bergevin, Doug Wilson... the list of guys who have had tons of time and have done less than nothing with it in the NHL is endless. I don't think I have time to try and list absolute dud coaching appointments that you knew would fail the second you heard the name. Considering how dumb most NHL clubs are, I'd be willing to bet there's a lot of great talent that has been overlooked. Maybe start with someone who could employ an analytics department!

Miss Shapiro myself but Stars had to replace him though. Wasn’t a great time for Saad or anyone new to come in under the circumstances. Give him a full season.

We’ll have another season of Nill and Bones though. Curious to see how Nill will play this offseason, ED included, knowing this is his last run as Stars GM.

 

[M88K]

Miss Shapiro myself but Stars had to replace him though. Wasn’t a great time for Saad or anyone new to come in under the circumstances. Give him a full season.

We’ll have another season of Nill and Bones though. Curious to see how Nill will play this offseason, ED included, knowing this is his last run as Stars GM.

Sadly we don't know if that's true. He should have already been gone, I'd think the finals appearance probably bought him a few more years and coaches.

 

[Captain Awesome]

Nill's contract is through 2022-23, so unless something catastrophic happens, probably at least another 2 seasons. What's scarier than Jim Nill is that the clown above him authorized (and probably initiated) the 'f***ing horseshit' debacle, and forced a coach hire (allegedly). You can replace a GM, a clown owner is for the very, very long run.

Shapiro objectively released more content on The Athletic than anyone else on the whole site, he said so, he basically got told he could work less if he wanted. Considering American work culture, that's quite a testament to how much stuff he was churning out.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Saad had a nice detailed piece on "bang per buck" on the Athletic today. Its worth a read, but I always like Shapiro, too.

I agree the organization is "too classy" to dump Nill a year before probable retirement. But, they did hopefully enhance the scouting department, again, hopefully shoring up any weakness there. Also, since they believe they are in the championship window (even if just peeking through a crack) changing team direction this year or next probably would set back whatever chances they had, in starting a new coach, system, etc. They probably won't win the SC next year (but could) but tweaking the edges is probably their best route to get it.

Let Nill retire and bring in someone younger. If they make the finals again (even if they lose, the finals can be like OT, and anything can happen) promote from within. If they crap out, start looking at perhaps a totally different philosophy.

Somewhere (I think it was in the article mentioned above) there is a quote that where the Star/Nill went wrong is where they stopped trying to build a consistent contender, and started trying to just "add a few pieces" to chase the Stanley Cup. There is probably some truth to that. Or, when he stopped chasing his proven Detroit model, to add players who STL used to beat them in the playoffs twice. I think you have to pick a route and stay the course, which he hasn't done.

 

[ZeHockeyFan]

I'm not whining, you're whining!

I don't care what contradictions you think you see, but I believe I am realistically pointing out that statistically, things aren't as bad as some fans think they are, and starting over in a rebuild for the Stars at this moment is a statistically untenable situation, less likely to yield results. i.e., changing GM's has about a 1% chance of improving the team, even if it has a 99% chance of making certain parts of the fan base feel great. Yes, at some point, if things continue to go badly and he loses confidence of the Owner, he will be replaced.

That's not even factoring in the financial side of things, where TG isn't likely to pay Bones and Nill and a new GM and coach. I am sure that due to their age, at the end of the contract, TG will assess whether it's time to bring them back Nill will be 64 next year. And, it might very well be time for a younger, fresher, model.

Or, factoring in a list of actual GM's who would be available to the Stars. Sure, fans throw out names of folks they would like to get in here, but even that isn't so easy. The list of "Up and Comers" someone posted is nice, but no guarantee. The list of existing GM's that might be available, are to me, retreads. The good ones just won't come available very often.

In short, I am sort of saying to be careful what you wish for. As in the first PP, I see a small chance of getting better, and a large chance of getting on a GM treadmill close to the coaching treadmill that was sort of forced on Nill - i.e., owner's decision on Hitch, and then Monty having to be dismissed.

Of course, none of us has a crystal ball, so as always, I could be wrong and time will tell.

No, it is you whom is whinging.

You have been provided with facts-based assessments and rebuttals and you've acknowledged as much. In addition, your obtuse propensity for fallacies and self-contradicting posts have been pointed out.

And somehow you still continue banging the drum about how poor Jim Nill being "untreated fairly" and how you're being mocked by his detractors, like me.

Yes, you are whinging. Grow up.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

I don't think Nill gets fired after next season, or allowed to manage out his final year as a lame duck GM. I think he either gets an extension as GM if ownership is happy or he'll get offered a "promotion" to a job with less responsibility if Gagliari doesn't like the progress. He'd be the new "President of Hockey Ops" which would be more of a highly paid advisor and steady hand to the new GM.

 

[Satan]

Which NHL teams have drafted the best and worst since 2005?

Gonna leave this here. Interesting results, would like to see how we compare 2013 to 2018 though

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Thanks, I remember reading several articles where, as bad as it seems to us, the Stars are about average in drafting. Top 10 in total hits, but drop to 14 when it comes to impact players.

To answer your 13-18 question, Nill has hit on 14 of 44 picks (which is 29.5% to 37% over the longer term), and his:

Games per hit pick is 66.6 per pick, vs 116 long term
Pts per those picks is 44.7 vs 48 long term.
Pts per game for those picks is 1.48 vs long term 0.41 per game

Of course, games and points per pick would be lower for Nill since most of his picks are only a few years into their careers. I took Delly and his 26 games as a "hit," but more NHL players might come from that draft, raising Nill's hit rate a bit.

The PPG is a big improvement over the long term average, with Guri, Hintz, Miro, JRob all scoring well. Having many of the other picks playing when the team tended to be even more defensive might have an impact on the averages.

I can't compute GSVA but with those above and Ottenger being more of impact players than Niewy's Faksa, Jamie O, J Campbell (so far) I doubt it would be lower or higher than the long term average.

Interesting stuff.

 

[Rory]

Thanks, I remember reading several articles where, as bad as it seems to us, the Stars are about average in drafting. Top 10 in total hits, but drop to 14 when it comes to impact players.

To answer your 13-18 question, Nill has hit on 14 of 44 picks (which is 29.5% to 37% over the longer term), and his:

Games per hit pick is 66.6 per pick, vs 116 long term
Pts per those picks is 44.7 vs 48 long term.
Pts per game for those picks is 1.48 vs long term 0.41 per game

Of course, games and points per pick would be lower for Nill since most of his picks are only a few years into their careers. I took Delly and his 26 games as a "hit," but more NHL players might come from that draft, raising Nill's hit rate a bit.

The PPG is a big improvement over the long term average, with Guri, Hintz, Miro, JRob all scoring well. Having many of the other picks playing when the team tended to be even more defensive might have an impact on the averages.

I can't compute GSVA but with those above and Ottenger being more of impact players than Niewy's Faksa, Jamie O, J Campbell (so far) I doubt it would be lower or higher than the long term average.

Interesting stuff.

I do think this team is going in the right general direction. Not on the Tampa level but they should be in and out of the playoffs. The issue is there probably is not 1 draft you can look back at and say Nill took the best player when he was on the clock. He has missed on some top end talent.

 

[BfantZ]

I do think this team is going in the right general direction. Not on the Tampa level but they should be in and out of the playoffs. The issue is there probably is not 1 draft you can look back at and say Nill took the best player when he was on the clock. He has missed on some top end talent.

Oettenger was a pretty solid pick and the next best player after him was arguably Robertson who is better than like 30 players drafted ahead of him .

 

[Captain Awesome]

Which NHL teams have drafted the best and worst since 2005?

Gonna leave this here. Interesting results, would like to see how we compare 2013 to 2018 though

I saw this, I thought it was interesting, but I'm not sure I'm a huge fan of how it's done. 12 years is pretty arbitrary, staff turnover is probably big enough that the back half of these drafts is meaningless now, there's not some perfect amount of time, but something like average NHL GM tenure (rounded up the nearest year) would be nice. That would be ~6 years, 7 years if you exclude anyone tenured under 1 year. I'd also like to see more efficiency measures. I guess the GSVA vs Expected GSVA is one of sorts. It doesn't mention that we are tied for 8th with average draft position at 102, for example, so we basically did what was expected at best? I think considering how they weighed it with GSVA, I'd be more interested in average 1st round draft position.

The initial table they show is only half complete, there should be another table where teams are ranked on those metrics. For example, the Stars hit% is 2% below the average, while they pick 4 picks ahead of the average (pick 102 vs avg 106), that is probably a more useful table than what they have. The color gradients being only top 5 and bottom 5 doesn't give you much information about most of the teams either. I guess I now know that the Canucks are a truly abysmal drafting organization. I was going to do it myself and post it here, but then I realized they pasted a picture of the table and not the actual table, and there's no way I'm going to type all those out by hand to recreate it.

 

[Satan]

I saw this, I thought it was interesting, but I'm not sure I'm a huge fan of how it's done. 12 years is pretty arbitrary, staff turnover is probably big enough that the back half of these drafts is meaningless now, there's not some perfect amount of time, but something like average NHL GM tenure (rounded up the nearest year) would be nice. I'd also like to see more efficiency measures. I guess the GSVA vs Expected GSVA is one of sorts. It doesn't mention that we are tied for 8th with average draft position at 102, for example, so we basically did what was expected at best? I think considering how they weighed it with GSVA, I'd be more interested in average 1st round draft position.

The initial table they show is only half complete, there should be another table where teams are ranked on those metrics. For example, the Stars hit% is 2% below the average, while they pick, on average, 4 picks above the average, that is probably a more useful table than what they have. The color gradients being only top 5 and bottom 5 doesn't give you much information about most of the teams either. I guess I now know that the Canucks are a truly abysmal drafting organization. I was going to do it myself and post it here, but then I realized they pasted a picture of the table and not the actual table, and there's no way I'm going to type all those out by hand to recreate it.

Ya I agree. There's a step missing which I think is to breakdown teams in terms of GM tenures (which really isn't that hard). 8 years after parting ways with him, we don't really care how Joe Nieuwendyk drafted

 

[Captain Awesome]

Ya I agree. There's a step missing which I think is to breakdown teams in terms of GM tenures (which really isn't that hard). 8 years after parting ways with him, we don't really care how Joe Nieuwendyk drafted

I went back and did a ninja edit, with the power of Wikipedia and a spreadsheet, I determined the optimal length of this study is probably around 6-7 years. That would be half Joe half Jim, but at least it would mean we wouldn't pat ourselves on the back for drafting John Klingberg in the 5th round 10 years ago.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I looked further back, and the drafting under Gainey and Armstrong was really putrid. With no cap, they bought the UFA's largely at the expense of draft picks and high draft picks in particular, but never got any real impact players in Rd 1, other than Ignila, whom they traded.

The time period chosen has us with Army for 2 years as GM, Hull-Jack for 1, Niewy for 4, and now Nill for 8, with 2021 being his 9th draft. But the last few can't be assessed quite yet. Mascherin and Diamani may join Delly to give us three good forwards from that draft.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

I looked further back, and the drafting under Gainey and Armstrong was really putrid. With no cap, they bought the UFA's largely at the expense of draft picks and high draft picks in particular, but never got any real impact players in Rd 1, other than Ignila, whom they traded.

The time period chosen has us with Army for 2 years as GM, Hull-Jack for 1, Niewy for 4, and now Nill for 8, with 2021 being his 9th draft. But the last few can't be assessed quite yet. Mascherin and Diamani may join Delly to give us three good forwards from that draft.

No shot. This is typical over hype.. like when people were panicking about Glennie getting claimed off waivers.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I did say may, not will.

 

[Satan]

No shot. This is typical over hype.. like when people were panicking about Glennie getting claimed off waivers.

1. Mascherin scored more in his 1st AHL season than Scott Glennie ever did and was scoring at a near-40 goal pace
2. Nobody is claiming Adam Mascherin is going to be an elite NHL player but he certainly projects to be a full-time NHLer.

 

[catters078]

Nills job gonna get saved tomorrow when we win the lottery and draft at pick 2 and get another franchise altering prospect, this time at fwd.

 

[Captain Awesome]

Unfortunately for him, there are no franchise altering prospects at the top of the draft, at least no obvious ones without the benefit of hindsight. It’ll probably be some guy in the 2nd round.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I wish I could say we are still due a bit more lotto luck, based on all the disappointments of the past, but I don't think we have Karmaed into it by any means, even with all the injuries, etc., this year. We probably end up picking 15th, as scheduled, maybe 16th, but not first or second. Hope I am wrong!

 

[Zapp]

I wish I could say we are still due a bit more lotto luck, based on all the disappointments of the past, but I don't think we have Karmaed into it by any means, even with all the injuries, etc., this year. We probably end up picking 15th, as scheduled, maybe 16th, but not first or second. Hope I am wrong!

I don’t want a lottery pick in this draft and I don’t know why anyone would. There’s too much uncertainty.

Save the lotto luck for the next 2 drafts. They’re going to be game changerz

 

[Kipper 17]

Why would you not want to win the lotto? Isn't the plan to make the playoffs next year and not be eligible for the lotto?

 

[serp]

Why would you not want to win the lotto? Isn't the plan to make the playoffs next year and not be eligible for the lotto?

Not to mention from next season on teams out of the top10 can't move up in the lottery anymore IRC . This is the last chance for a team that barely missed to maybe get a top pick with some luck.