Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft: The Home Stretch, Draft July 23-24

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jkutswings

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Jul 10, 2014
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At what point do you take the class at face value?
I think the biggest reach in this draft class is any of us amateurs actually knowing much about it.

I mean, I'm glad for everybody posting the scouting reports and shift-by-shift analyses and stuff, and I will fully admit that there are several fans here that follow this stuff a whole lot closer than I do, even during a "normal" year. But when differentiating between the top 10 or so players, I think circumstances have made any notion of, "you CAN'T take that guy at 6" or, "you'd HAVE to take this guy over that guy" a silly shot in the dark.

I have some guys I like more than others. But making concrete projections (speaking in general here, certainly not specific to you) feels like discussing a movie after watching only ten seconds of it.
 

Hen Kolland

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Feb 22, 2018
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And then what is the opposition to Guenther, if they are all wingers?

He checks more boxes than a lot of those guys.

Well I’ve had Guenther in the discussion of my top 6 for a while. I don’t anticipate that changing. I think I’ve softened on him at the benefit of McTavish, but I would still be plenty content with him at 6. If he’s not in my final top 6, then he’s probably #7. He’s absolutely right there
 

Killerjas

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Well I’ve had Guenther in the discussion of my top 6 for a while. I don’t anticipate that changing. I think I’ve softened on him at the benefit of McTavish, but I would still be plenty content with him at 6. If he’s not in my final top 6, then he’s probably #7. He’s absolutely right there

He is in my top 10, in the same tier as Kent Johnson, McTavish, Edvinsson and Clarke. Can see it happening that a team has him top 5.

I wouldn't do it personally, I think he needs to improve on his pace and quickness around the ice to be a top 6 player.
 
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lilidk

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I can think of very few circumstances where I would be upset with Guenther at 6. Maybe if we took him over Clarke I would be disappointed, but I think I'd get over it rather quickly. I'm still not sold on McT in the top 10.
Mctavish was much better at u18 than Guenther . It's very small sample Of games and I don't know if we can compare center who was all over the ice to the winger, who was mostly waiting for puck to shoot it
 

Holden Caufield

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I’m interested in what they decide to do with all this draft capital.
Are they really going to pick 12 players?
Are they going to target a large number of college players… so they have extra years to sign them ?

I’m kind of hoping they move up a couple times and really plant their flag on some prospects and show the fans they made sure to get ‘their’ guy.

Moving up from pick 22 could definitely be an option.
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

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It’s funny because if you were to ask me about how I would have felt about adding a player like Beniers at some point during the season (pretending I didn’t know who players were) I would have given it a big thumbs up. And now that we are sitting here, I can’t help but feel almost underwhelmed at the thought of picking him.

He is incredibly good at what he does, and I have no doubts at all about his NHL future. I just can’t help but feeling TOO safe. While I have outwardly stated that I am pushing Johnson down my ranking because I’m happier with the safer bets, I feel like I’m doing the same to Beniers for the opposite reason, and I’m not sure I completely understand it.

But on a semi-related note, I was listening to Winged Wheel passively this afternoon while mindlessly plugging away on some project at work, and they had Scott Wheeler on, and he said something that I think stood out to me, especially when I connected that comment with a comment I read by Mark Edwards on this site regarding Sillinger.

Scott said (of Eklund) that a lot of people will make something of his position. While there’s a good chance he ends up on the wing, you have to look at his peers and see how confident are you in any of them ending up as an impactful center. Sure, you’ve got Beniers, and I have faith in McTavish, although Scott also said that people who have worked with McTavish think he might be more suited for a winger just based on how he plays the game (aggressive on forecheck, not a guy who necessarily excels lugging the puck through the NZ). But when you look at Eklund or Johnson or McTavish or Sillinger, Coronato, etc. you aren’t really talking about anyone that comfortably projects as a center. Are you going to take Svechkov at 6 because he’s the first guy that is a true center? Probably not. Does that mean you HAVE to pick D because there’s no surefire center? No.

Same thing with Mark Edwards on Sillinger’s skating. He’s in a draft with very few high end skaters. Should we knock Sillinger way lower because he’s an average at best skater when his peers are only slightly better than average? I mean Sillinger is more skilled than a lot of his peers, and his skating is the one area that truly holds him back. In the case of Eklund, he’s more skilled than a majority of his peers, but positional value says he should be knocked some.

At what point do you take the class at face value? This isn’t a class that I’m likely getting a mobile center. I can make sacrifices in the quality of player based on how I see them just to get a center. Or I can get the better player and accept that the position won’t be ideal. I think this has been a big shift in the way I’m viewing guys like Eklund as a smaller winger, or McTavish and Sillinger not being all that impressive skaters. The something that is there is still more valuable to me than the things that seem to be behind the curve.

I get not liking the safe pick. I think the assumption is that people are worried that the safe pick also lacks upside and they are what-you-see-is-what-you-get as prospects. Beniers doesn't really do anything flashy but he's effective and industrious. He may not be the guy that scores 35 goals and 80+ points a season as the top center but what he does do is set the tone on the ice for the team through his tenacity. If all he becomes is a Bo Horvat or a Dylan Larkin then so be it.
 
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Ed Ned and Leddy

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It’s funny because if you were to ask me about how I would have felt about adding a player like Beniers at some point during the season (pretending I didn’t know who players were) I would have given it a big thumbs up. And now that we are sitting here, I can’t help but feel almost underwhelmed at the thought of picking him.

He is incredibly good at what he does, and I have no doubts at all about his NHL future. I just can’t help but feeling TOO safe. While I have outwardly stated that I am pushing Johnson down my ranking because I’m happier with the safer bets, I feel like I’m doing the same to Beniers for the opposite reason, and I’m not sure I completely understand it.

But on a semi-related note, I was listening to Winged Wheel passively this afternoon while mindlessly plugging away on some project at work, and they had Scott Wheeler on, and he said something that I think stood out to me, especially when I connected that comment with a comment I read by Mark Edwards on this site regarding Sillinger.

Scott said (of Eklund) that a lot of people will make something of his position. While there’s a good chance he ends up on the wing, you have to look at his peers and see how confident are you in any of them ending up as an impactful center. Sure, you’ve got Beniers, and I have faith in McTavish, although Scott also said that people who have worked with McTavish think he might be more suited for a winger just based on how he plays the game (aggressive on forecheck, not a guy who necessarily excels lugging the puck through the NZ). But when you look at Eklund or Johnson or McTavish or Sillinger, Coronato, etc. you aren’t really talking about anyone that comfortably projects as a center. Are you going to take Svechkov at 6 because he’s the first guy that is a true center? Probably not. Does that mean you HAVE to pick D because there’s no surefire center? No.

Same thing with Mark Edwards on Sillinger’s skating. He’s in a draft with very few high end skaters. Should we knock Sillinger way lower because he’s an average at best skater when his peers are only slightly better than average? I mean Sillinger is more skilled than a lot of his peers, and his skating is the one area that truly holds him back. In the case of Eklund, he’s more skilled than a majority of his peers, but positional value says he should be knocked some.

At what point do you take the class at face value? This isn’t a class that I’m likely getting a mobile center. I can make sacrifices in the quality of player based on how I see them just to get a center. Or I can get the better player and accept that the position won’t be ideal. I think this has been a big shift in the way I’m viewing guys like Eklund as a smaller winger, or McTavish and Sillinger not being all that impressive skaters. The something that is there is still more valuable to me than the things that seem to be behind the curve.

See we're really on different wave lengths this draft. I prefer a home run swing at #6, but Beniers is the one "safe" pick I would bang the table for. Without writing an essay on him, I just see him doing so much so effectively in all zones, at such an important position. To me, we might not get an opportunity to draft a better center than Matt Beniers during the remainder of this rebuild. I don't think a Beniers-Larkin-Veleno/Rasmussen spine is HoF-worthy, but I think it could be very effective if we surround those guys with quality wingers and build a good blueline.

For what it's worth, I recognize a lot of people feel the same way about McTavish. I don't see him being as safe a pick as Beniers personally, but if he's the guy we go with that's essentially what I'd hope for as well.
 

Rzombo4 prez

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At what point do you take the class at face value? This isn’t a class that I’m likely getting a mobile center. I can make sacrifices in the quality of player based on how I see them just to get a center. Or I can get the better player and accept that the position won’t be ideal. I think this has been a big shift in the way I’m viewing guys like Eklund as a smaller winger, or McTavish and Sillinger not being all that impressive skaters. The something that is there is still more valuable to me than the things that seem to be behind the curve.

You can only draft what is available to draft. That is certainly correct. You are also, however, drafting for a team, not in a vacuum. Even if players do not fit perfectly into positions of need, I would still show some preference to players who best compliment what you already have in the system. In my eyes, even if Johnson and McTavish end up on the wing, they still bring a set of attributes to the organization that we are truly missing. Eklund to me is a very good, smart, skilled and mature player but I see him as some what redundant to what we have in the system. He may prove to be slightly superior it quality, but he is still the same kind of player as some other key prospects in the organization. Lastly, I think this is just a class with a group of 7 to 10 players who are really, really close.

I also agree that this is a very poor skating class by and large.
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

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See we're really on different wave lengths this draft. I prefer a home run swing at #6, but Beniers is the one "safe" pick I would bang the table for. Without writing an essay on him, I just see him doing so much so effectively in all zones, at such an important position. To me, we might not get an opportunity to draft a better center than Matt Beniers during the remainder of this rebuild. I don't think a Beniers-Larkin-Veleno/Rasmussen spine is HoF-worthy, but I think it could be very effective if we surround those guys with quality wingers and build a good blueline.

For what it's worth, I recognize a lot of people feel the same way about McTavish. I don't see him being as safe a pick as Beniers personally, but if he's the guy we go with that's essentially what I'd hope for as well.

We want a homerun swing with all of our picks, you have to assess your risk threshold. I view Johnson as if he has the highest likelihood of outright busting and also the highest probability of underperforming draft expectations out of the consensus top 10-12 guys. Slight frame, not explosive skating, poor defensively relative to his peers in the top 5 forward group.

You're probably right that McTavish isn't as safe as Beniers but McTavish is a guy I feel has a game that at minimum gets him a top 9 spot but develops into to a top 6 forward, be it as a winger or a center. He may never exceed 50 points a season but what he does bring to the team is a skillset that we really lack in that big bodied power forward type who is tough to play against. He's also the type of guy that makes the job of skilled players around him easier because he does the line's dirty work. Much in the same way that Hyman does in Toronto, Tkachuk does in Ottawa, and Bertuzzi does for Larkin.
 

Killerjas

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McTavish most likely will be a center, middle 6 player. Some nights a decent 2nd liner, most nights a very good 3rd liner.

Does that sound bad? No, ofcourse not.

Does that sound like something I want with a 6th round pick? Not really, I want more upside like an Eklund, Beniers etc.
 
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Ed Ned and Leddy

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We want a homerun swing with all of our picks, you have to assess your risk threshold. I view Johnson as if he has the highest likelihood of outright busting and also the highest probability of underperforming draft expectations out of the consensus top 10-12 guys. Slight frame, not explosive skating, poor defensively relative to his peers in the top 5 forward group.

You're probably right that McTavish isn't as safe as Beniers but McTavish is a guy I feel has a game that at minimum gets him a top 9 spot but develops into to a top 6 forward, be it as a winger or a center. He may never exceed 50 points a season but what he does bring to the team is a skillset that we really lack in that big bodied power forward type who is tough to play against. He's also the type of guy that makes the job of skilled players around him easier because he does the line's dirty work. Much in the same way that Hyman does in Toronto, Tkachuk does in Ottawa, and Bertuzzi does for Larkin.

Yeah, I definitely agree that you've got to try and assess the risk. On Johnson I love the way he skates, and I'm not too worried about his defensive output because I see him as a LW, so to me I see the risk as a lot lower than others do. I recognize that I'm in the minority on that though. Whereas for the way McTavish plays I'm a bit more concerned about the skating. Not that he's a bad prospect by any means, just not my cup of tea at #6 this year personally. Again though, I recognize I'm in the minority there.

Assessing risk and upside is such a mercurial thing with prospects, as much as I love watching junior hockey I don't really envy the job of scouts and GMs.
 

Hen Kolland

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Feb 22, 2018
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We want a homerun swing with all of our picks, you have to assess your risk threshold. I view Johnson as if he has the highest likelihood of outright busting and also the highest probability of underperforming draft expectations out of the consensus top 10-12 guys. Slight frame, not explosive skating, poor defensively relative to his peers in the top 5 forward group.

You're probably right that McTavish isn't as safe as Beniers but McTavish is a guy I feel has a game that at minimum gets him a top 9 spot but develops into to a top 6 forward, be it as a winger or a center. He may never exceed 50 points a season but what he does bring to the team is a skillset that we really lack in that big bodied power forward type who is tough to play against. He's also the type of guy that makes the job of skilled players around him easier because he does the line's dirty work. Much in the same way that Hyman does in Toronto, Tkachuk does in Ottawa, and Bertuzzi does for Larkin.

3 year scoring average:
Zach Hyman - 55p/82gp
Tyler Bertuzzi - 55p/82gp
Brady Tkachuk - 52p/82gp (age 19-20-21)

I think that McTavish possesses more gifts that gives him a higher ceiling than Hyman and Bertuzzi. Tkachuk is still young and coming into his own, and has been on a low quality team for a while, I expect to see his numbers increase as he continues to mature and as that team matures. I don't want people to get confused and think I am lumping Tkachuk in with the other two at this point, I think his ceiling is still higher.

McTavish (can add Sillinger in here too) is a guy to me that has a good chance to be one of these complementary player types, but with the added benefit of being more skilled than just a "junkyard dog" as Mickey loves to label them. Those guys have the physical edge, work the boards well, go to the front of the net, bang in rebounds. All of that is great, but when you have a bit more pedigree, like a McTavish, a Sillinger, a Tkachuk, you start to create more on your own. Whether it's the shot, the hands, the feel, there's that added element that allows the potential to tap into even a bit more offense.

I can tell you that if my opinion of McTavish was that he might never exceed 50 points, he wouldn't be on the radar at all at 6. I think the potential is greater.
 
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lilidk

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McTavish most likely will be a center, middle 6 player. Some nights a decent 2nd liner, most nights a very good 3rd liner.

Does that sound bad? No, ofcourse not.

Does that sound like something I want with a 6th round pick? Not really, I want more upside like an Eklund, Beniers etc.
It's possible all those 3 are gone before pick #6
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

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McTavish most likely will be a center, middle 6 player. Some nights a decent 2nd liner, most nights a very good 3rd liner.

Does that sound bad? No, ofcourse not.

Does that sound like something I want with a 6th round pick? Not really, I want more upside like an Eklund, Beniers etc.

That's also the same thing that people said about Brady Tkachuk. That kid looks like a beast.
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

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3 year scoring average:
Zach Hyman - 55p/82gp
Tyler Bertuzzi - 55p/82gp
Brady Tkachuk - 52p/82gp (age 19-20-21)

I think that McTavish possesses more gifts that gives him a higher ceiling than Hyman and Bertuzzi. Tkachuk is still young and coming into his own, and has been on a low quality team for a while, I expect to see his numbers increase as he continues to mature and as that team matures. I don't want people to get confused and think I am lumping Tkachuk in with the other two at this point, I think his ceiling is still higher.

McTavish (can add Sillinger in here too) is a guy to me that has a good chance to be one of these complementary player types, but with the added benefit of being more skilled than just a "junkyard dog" as Mickey loves to label them. Those guys have the physical edge, work the boards well, go to the front of the net, bang in rebounds. All of that is great, but when you have a bit more pedigree, like a McTavish, a Sillinger, a Tkachuk, you start to create more on your own. Whether it's the shot, the hands, the feel, there's that added element that allows the potential to tap into even a bit more offense.

I can tell you that if my opinion of McTavish was that he might never exceed 50 points, he wouldn't be on the radar at all at 6. I think the potential is greater.

I think that McTavish can eventually be a higher scorer than a 50ish point guy as well, though I don't know by how much. I said it a while ago that he reminds me a lot of Anders Lee and Mason even affirmed that by saying that's who he models his game after. Or maybe Mason blows the league away and becomes Mark Schiefele 2.0?

Sillinger I'm not as sold on. Watching the scouching report on him made me do a double take and look at some of the other footage of him I've found on the net. Cole really does try to do too much on his own and didn't do a good job of utilizing teammates on breakouts, zone entries or even when ragging the puck. There is skill there, but not the kind of superior skill that justifies being a selfish forward. And I'm less sure about him being a top 6 guy and wonder if he's more a 3rd liner with a great wrist shot. And if that's the case then we have similar or better options at 22.
 

newfy

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That's also the same thing that people said about Brady Tkachuk. That kid looks like a beast.

Its actually crazy how anyone who plays physical gets lumped into a third liner at the draft, no matter what their skill level is when theyre talked about getting picked high.

Matthew Tkachuk was the same thing. He was a product of Marner and Dvorak on HFboards, until he stepped into the NHL at 19 and put up ~50 points. Brady and Matthew are a couple of the better young wingers in the game and do everything out there that doesnt show up on a scoresheet. Matthew is only 23 and has played the last 3 seasons at a 72 point pace.

People on here were ready to jump off buildings if the wings drafted Brady. Brady has played his first 3 years in the league at a 52 point pace while being near the top of the league in hits and killing it in advanced stats.

I see no reason to think a player like Beniers is considered to have more "upside". I tihnk hes actually a safer pick due to his skating but offensively I dont see much of a difference at all. I think offensively, McTavish's shot is the most projectable thing between the 2 of them
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

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Its actually crazy how anyone who plays physical gets lumped into a third liner at the draft, no matter what their skill level is when theyre talked about getting picked high.

Matthew Tkachuk was the same thing. He was a product of Marner and Dvorak on HFboards, until he stepped into the NHL at 19 and put up ~50 points. Brady and Matthew are a couple of the better young wingers in the game and do everything out there that doesnt show up on a scoresheet. Matthew is only 23 and has played the last 3 seasons at a 72 point pace.

People on here were ready to jump off buildings if the wings drafted Brady. Brady has played his first 3 years in the league at a 52 point pace while being near the top of the league in hits and killing it in advanced stats.

I see no reason to think a player like Beniers is considered to have more "upside". I tihnk hes actually a safer pick due to his skating but offensively I dont see much of a difference at all. I think offensively, McTavish's shot is the most projectable thing between the 2 of them

Yeah, Beniers has just an OK shot and that's probably the thing I hate most about his game. McTavish's shot is not only hard enough to break bricks but he can put it anywhere he wants.

Here is another former NHLer that I think Mason has a bit of similarities with: Nathan Horton. Big, strong, heavy on their stick, can snipe from in tight and hard as hell to move off the puck. Horton would probably have close to 400 goals right now if it wasn't for concussion issues ending his career prematurely.
 

Dotter

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This draft feels like the type of draft where a player like McTavish will be taken way earlier than anyone here expects. I would not be surprised if he goes top 3 - 5 range.
 

Michael Brand Eggs

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I mean, what is location, really
I still can't over the feeling that this draft year has been a very distorted one. Kids didn't play, and then the kids who did play had some fairly questionable competition levels in their leagues, and the quarantine itself introduced a lot of mental health challenges. Drafting well should be a function of figuring out where those distortions are. Who had it easy, who had it particularly hard, etc.

It seems like this kind of thinking is already happening, because we aren't just running out and saying, look at Dylan Guenther's production in the WHL, he's the next big thing. We're sort of quietly admitting that the WHL of this year was not its usual level of competition, and so we can't take it at face value.

I'm just starting to wonder to what degree college hockey was its normal self, especially for draft eligible freshmen. My understanding is that these kids were away from home, basically stuck alone in their dorm rooms until it was time for hockey, and then they'd have to go back until it was time for hockey again. That could be a really tough unexpected shift, where maybe more mature guys are going to handle it alright, but less mature guys might have a hard time.

Similar deal with guys playing overseas. That must have been really hard at times. You don't speak the language, you're stuck inside, etc.

I mean, quarantine was hard as a (somewhat) well-adjusted adult. It must have been really hard for a kid who feels like this crazy period of time is going to determine their future, and there's not much they can do about it.
 
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Nico Hughes

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i need a term to describe the type mind needed by a succesful hockey player because it isnt high iq . a player can be real dumb but think very quickly while being very aware of whats going on around him . could you just say ' quick thinker with excellent peripheral vision ' ?
IQ would be separate from vision, processing, decision making, etc..

IQ is just a term for the package usually, and probably a poor one at that
 

Orthodox Caveman

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haven't watched prospects as much as the past few years just hope we strike gold on our pick. Part of me hopes its Wallstedt or a some bold pick/shocker.
 

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